Monday, November 30, 2009

Favre Now On Top of MVP Race

Last week it was a close race for the MVP between five quarterbacks and running back (who embarrassingly I forgot to mention in my article).

This week it's officially Brett Favre's MVP to lose.

Now do I think that Brett Favre is more valuable to his team than Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers? Absolutely not. The Colts would probably be 3-8 without Peyton, and the Chargers would at best be 5-6 without Rivers. Without Favre I still think the Vikings are a playoff team in the NFC North based on the fact that they were a playoff team in the NFC North last year and they used Gus Frerotte as their quarterback for the bulk of the season.

The thing that helps Favre is that his numbers are undeniable. Favre currently has the same amout of touchdowns as Manning (24) but has eight less interceptions (3) on the season. Manning currently has over 500 more passing yards than Favre, and more importantly, one more win on the regular season. Completion percentage-wise Manning has a 70.4 while Favre has a 69.3, both incredible numbers.

Helping Favre in the MVP debate is that, although he's won 3 MVP awards in his career (tied for most with Peyton Manning), he's the newer face in the debate. Manning won it last year, so in order to win it again he's going to have to top his production from last year; which he is currently doing.

Another thing helping Favre is that, unlike Manning, no one expected this type of season from Favre. With Peyton, we always expect 12+ wins, 40 touchdowns, 4,500 yards, etc. etc. etc. With Favre, people expected his numbers to be down even from last year as a Jet.

The biggest thing in Favre's way is that, while Peyton has likely cleared the biggest storm of his season (schedule-wise), Favre is about to enter the thick of his. We all remember 2008 when Favre and the Jets were 8-3 before ending the season 9-7 and missing the playoffs. This season it likely won't be that bad, but the remainder of Favre and the Viking's schedule reads as; @Ari, Cin, @Car, @Chi, NYG. That's not going to be easy. Only two more home games, and three games against potential playoff teams. Not to mention the two teams that aren't playoff bound (Carolina and Chicago) will still be trying their hardest to win, considering the teams feature coaches and players who lead those franchises to the Super Bowl yet still have to fight for their jobs.

If Favre and the Packers go 15-1 then Favre will win the MVP. If Favre and the Packers go 14-2, Favre may still win the MVP. Anything less and he probably will fall short to Peyton.

If Peyton and the Colts go 16-0, Peyton will win the MVP, no doubt about it. I don't think 16-0 will happen, but with Ten, Den, @Jac, NYJ, @Buf as the final five games on their schedule, it's not out of reach.

Chris Johnson has moved up to number 3 on the MVP depth chart; but despite his near 1,400 yards, his team will still probably miss out on the playoffs, and it's not his fault the team is on a 5-0 run, because he was still there when they were 0-6. It's Vince Young's doing, which is why he's moved into the MVP discussion.

So as of now the MVP rankings look like this; 1. Brett Favre, 2. Peyton Manning, 3. Chris Johnson, 4. Drew Brees, 5. Tom Brady, 6. Philip Rivers, 7. Vince Young, 8. Adrian Peterson.

Do I think it's an 8 player race? No, I think it's Favre vs Manning, but don't be surprised if someone in the bottom six of that list makes the push to win the award.

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