Kurt Warner Retires: The Time Has Come For Leinart

Today the 12 year career of Kurt Warner came to an end. I can't say I'm surprised, but I will say a few things about Warner.

First things first, any debate over whether or not Warner is a Hall of Famer is irrational. Though Warner only had (being generous) six good seasons, five of those seasons resulted in a playoff berth, four of those seasons ended with a Pro Bowl, three of those seasons ended with a Super Bowl berth, two included MVP awards, and one ended with a Super Bowl victory and game MVP award. In other words, when Warner was good he was great.

For his career, his numbers compare well to Troy Aikman's, Jim Kelly's, and Terry Bradshaw's; all Hall of Famers.

To sum things up for Warner, before 2007 he wasn't going to be a Hall of Famer. After 2008 he looked like he was going to be one. Now after 2009, Kurt Warner is definitely a Hall of Famer, and he's one of the rare instances where a players talent may not have been astonishing, but his will and positive attitude helped him achieve the highest level of success there is to achieve in professional football.

I will make one last comment about Warner, and it is a thought to chew on in your head. How much did having Orlando Pace, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin help Warner get to the Hall of Fame? All were All Pro talents without Warner. Warner was never an All Pro talent without them. I'm not saying Warner doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, because he does. I'm just wondering if Kerry Collins, Drew Bledsoe, or Vinny Testaverde could have put up the same numbers in the same systems with the same results.

Anyway, the real story in Warner's retirement now becomes Matt Leinart. This past season Leinart had to fill in for Warner a few times and looked "alright," but for the most part his career has been a disaster. And while his draft day partners Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and Jay Cutler haven't exactly been excellent, compared to Leinart they've been Hall of Famers.

Part of the problem for Leinart is that the Cardinals quarterback job has never been "his." In 2006, Leinart's rookie year, he started on the bench but performed well in some instances. Leinart entered 2007 looking to take the next step, but lost his job midway through the season never to regain it. From 2007 to 2009 Kurt Warner revitalized a Cardinals franchise that had been dead for decades, leading the franchise to it's first Super Bowl, and in turn keeping Leinart on the bench.

Now Leinart enters 2010 as the probable candidate to take over the Cardinals quarterback job, and in all reality the franchise has no choice. The Cardinals have invested too much money over the past four seasons in Leinart to not find out if they already have their future quarterback. If the Cardinals can satisfy Boldin's needs, Leinart will inherit the most explosive offense in the NFL in a division that doesn't look to be more difficult in 2010 than it was in 2009.

In other words things are looking good for Matt Leinart.

2010 is actually a big year for all of those 2006 to 2007 quarterbacks. Vince Young and Jay Cutler need to prove themselves in Tennessee and Chicago, a failure in 2010 could lead to a new team in 2011 for either. Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell of the 2007 draft need to prove themselves in 2010 or both will be unemployed come 2011. But nobody has the pressure that Leinart has entering 2010, after all, Leinart is inheriting the undeniable best team of the bunch.

Anything short of a division title next year and Matt Leinart's tenure as the QB in Arizona becomes unsuccessful. The pressure is on for Leinart, the Cardinals coaching staff, and the Cardinals franchise in general to get back to the elite level of the NFC next year.

And that, at the end of the day, is why Kurt Warner was a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Favre Now On Top of MVP Race

Last week it was a close race for the MVP between five quarterbacks and running back (who embarrassingly I forgot to mention in my article).

This week it's officially Brett Favre's MVP to lose.

Now do I think that Brett Favre is more valuable to his team than Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers? Absolutely not. The Colts would probably be 3-8 without Peyton, and the Chargers would at best be 5-6 without Rivers. Without Favre I still think the Vikings are a playoff team in the NFC North based on the fact that they were a playoff team in the NFC North last year and they used Gus Frerotte as their quarterback for the bulk of the season.

The thing that helps Favre is that his numbers are undeniable. Favre currently has the same amout of touchdowns as Manning (24) but has eight less interceptions (3) on the season. Manning currently has over 500 more passing yards than Favre, and more importantly, one more win on the regular season. Completion percentage-wise Manning has a 70.4 while Favre has a 69.3, both incredible numbers.

Helping Favre in the MVP debate is that, although he's won 3 MVP awards in his career (tied for most with Peyton Manning), he's the newer face in the debate. Manning won it last year, so in order to win it again he's going to have to top his production from last year; which he is currently doing.

Another thing helping Favre is that, unlike Manning, no one expected this type of season from Favre. With Peyton, we always expect 12+ wins, 40 touchdowns, 4,500 yards, etc. etc. etc. With Favre, people expected his numbers to be down even from last year as a Jet.

The biggest thing in Favre's way is that, while Peyton has likely cleared the biggest storm of his season (schedule-wise), Favre is about to enter the thick of his. We all remember 2008 when Favre and the Jets were 8-3 before ending the season 9-7 and missing the playoffs. This season it likely won't be that bad, but the remainder of Favre and the Viking's schedule reads as; @Ari, Cin, @Car, @Chi, NYG. That's not going to be easy. Only two more home games, and three games against potential playoff teams. Not to mention the two teams that aren't playoff bound (Carolina and Chicago) will still be trying their hardest to win, considering the teams feature coaches and players who lead those franchises to the Super Bowl yet still have to fight for their jobs.

If Favre and the Packers go 15-1 then Favre will win the MVP. If Favre and the Packers go 14-2, Favre may still win the MVP. Anything less and he probably will fall short to Peyton.

If Peyton and the Colts go 16-0, Peyton will win the MVP, no doubt about it. I don't think 16-0 will happen, but with Ten, Den, @Jac, NYJ, @Buf as the final five games on their schedule, it's not out of reach.

Chris Johnson has moved up to number 3 on the MVP depth chart; but despite his near 1,400 yards, his team will still probably miss out on the playoffs, and it's not his fault the team is on a 5-0 run, because he was still there when they were 0-6. It's Vince Young's doing, which is why he's moved into the MVP discussion.

So as of now the MVP rankings look like this; 1. Brett Favre, 2. Peyton Manning, 3. Chris Johnson, 4. Drew Brees, 5. Tom Brady, 6. Philip Rivers, 7. Vince Young, 8. Adrian Peterson.

Do I think it's an 8 player race? No, I think it's Favre vs Manning, but don't be surprised if someone in the bottom six of that list makes the push to win the award.

Welcome Back, Vince Young

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher has finally done what fans, the media, ownership, and LenDale White have been calling for since an 0-3 start; he's benched veteran QB Kerry Collins in favor of Vince Young.

If it doesn't seem like it was too long ago that Vince Young was the toast of the NFL; winning the Rookie of the Year award, getting his face on video game covers, and bringing the Titans back to the playoffs, it's likely because it wasn't that long ago. It was only the 2007 AFC Playoffs where Young's collapse as a starting QB began.

Without getting into the history of Vince Young's mental decline, let me say that I think this is the right move for the franchise. In an 0-6 season that last featured a decimation by the New England Patriots, there's no logic to keeping Collins in. So far this season Collins has a QB rating of 62, and he's thrown three more interceptions than he has touchdowns. Some people have said Collins isn't the problem, but he's obviously not the solution; so move on.

In his career, Vince Young has an 18-11 record as a starter. Note that all of those games were in his rookie and sophomore seasons. For someone his age, that's actually really impressive. I'll be the first to admit that that record is probably thanks a lot more to the Titans defense than it is to Young's arm, but Young brings a certain swagger to the QB position that opposing defenses have to prepare for that Collins doesn't.

Fisher has stated that if Young doesn't work out he won't hesitate to put Kerry Collins back in. The team has also signed former USC QB, and odd-man-out in Minnesota John David Booty. To sum it up, the Titans probably have a QB situation that would make only the Oakland Raiders envious... and not by much.

Luckily for Young, his first start will come against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that lost 41-0 to a very, very average Seattle Seahawks team a few weeks ago. It's actually pretty ironic because the last game Young started was week 1 of the 2008 season, the game that lead to Young's mental breakdown.

Young needs to perform well in this game if he wants to prevent the Titans from moving forward without him. No matter what the team is likely to bring in a QB in the offseason, the degree of how threatening that QB will be to Young's future remains to be seen.

One thing is for sure though, you have to respect Vince Young's desire to get back on the field. The first step in QB being successful in the NFL is mentally believing in oneself. At this point Young has that.

Now he has to prove he has the talent.

Why There's So Much More to Eli vs Brees Than Meets the Eye

It was the year 2004. The New England Patriots had just defeated the Carolina Panthers for the franchises second Super Bowl Championship*, Peyton Manning had just won his second MVP, everyone wondered whether or not Brett Favre would retire, and the San Diego Chargers were the owners of the #1 overall pick for the second time in four years.

Heading into the 2004 NFL draft, San Diego Chargers franchise were still stuck in a post Super Bowl XXIX hangover. The team made the playoffs in 1995, but were defeated at home by Jim Harbaugh and the Colts. The next several years would filled with futility.

In 1998, the franchise drafted Ryan Leaf #2 overall, one pick after Peyton Manning. Heading into the draft there was a lot of debate over who the Colts should take with the #1 overall pick; they selected Manning, the less physically gifted, but far more disciplined player. In the time since Manning would make the Colts a perennial playoff team, while Leaf was off the Chargers roster by 2001; the year the team selected Drew Brees with the #32 overall pick.

From 2001 to 2002 Brees showed signs of eventually developing into a great Quarterback. The Chargers looked like a team improving with each game, and in 2002 the team went 8-8, with Brees starting all 16 games.

2003 was a disaster however, and once again the Chargers landed the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. With a starting record of 2-9 in 2003, Brees looked as though he'd never pan out to be a full time NFL starter. In 1998 the Chargers missed out on one Manning, in 2004 the franchise had an opportunity to make good and draft Peyton's brother, Eli.

And so they did. And just like that it seemed as though Eli Manning would pull the plug on Drew Brees' tenure as San Diego's QB.

But something happened that April afternoon; Eli, under the guidance of his father, former NFL/NCAA star QB Archie, decided he didn't want to play in San Diego. Eli had learned from his fathers mistake of what happens when you end up with a bad franchise. Archie spent his entire career with a New Orleans Saints team that never got close to good; and both Eli and Archie watched what happened to Brees to and Leaf. In 2004, San Diego was the place where good QB's went to die.

So Eli informed the Chargers that he wasn't going to sign, and the Chargers made a trade which sent Philip Rivers, who the Giants selected #4 overall, to the Chargers in exchange for Eli, and some draft picks.

San Diego didn't have the guy they wanted, but they had a solid QB they thought they could develop, and after the draft they decided they were going to give Rivers time to develop, and let Brees continue to play out his contract.

On the other side of the country were the New York Giants. In 2000 the team went to the Super Bowl with QB Kerry Collins. Since 2000 Collins was a solid, though sometimes erratic QB in Jim Fassel's offense. After a disappointing 2003 season, in which Collins missed the final 3 games of the season, the Giants cut ties with both Collins and Fassel. Collins would end up in Oakland for the 2004 and 2005 seasons.

In June, about six weeks after acquiring Manning, the Giants signed Kurt Warner to a deal. Warner was the league MVP in 1999 and 2001, as well as the Super Bowl MVP in 1999. The Giants figured that the supposed "declining" Warner could serve as the transitional QB to Manning.

Under Warner, the Giants would start the season 4-1, before winning only one of their following 3. At 5-4, it seemed as though Warner was truly declining, and the Giants decided to give up on pursuing .500 and a potential playoff opportunity and figured to let Eli develop instead. The Giants would win only one game in seven tries under Eli, but the torch had officially been passed. Warner signed with the Arizona Cardinals, the final team he started against in 2004, for the 2005 season.

(Note: In 2003 Warner's last game as a starter was against the Giants who he started for the following season in 04. Weird right?)

Meanwhile in San Diego, Drew Brees had developed in a pro QB. With Rivers holding a clipboard, Brees took the Chargers back to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years in 2004. Although they were one and done to the New York Jets, the future was looking bright in SD.

Enter: 2005.

In Arizona, Kurt Warner truly looked finished, as he and the Cardinals would go a putrid 5-11; topped only by Kerry Collins and 4-11, Raiders. In 2006 the Cardinals drafted Matt Leinart to take over for Warner, and Collins headed to Tennessee where he was set to keep the seat warm until Vince Young was ready to steer ship.

In New York, things were looking good. Though the Giants were one and done, Eli had lead the team to an 11-5 record and an NFC East title.

2005 was good for San Diego, but not great. The Chargers would go 9-7, but Brees would earn a spot in the Pro Bowl. Due an injury in the last game of the season, Brees missed the Pro Bowl, and the same injury likely caused the Chargers to decide to let Brees go and hand the keys over to Philip Rivers.

In 2006 both Warner and Collins would due their duty and start the season, then hand the starting job over to Leinart and Young. Leinart looked promising, and Young would go on to win the Rookie of the Year award.

Brees, who had signed with New Orleans for 6 years/60 million (SD offered a 5 years/50 million incentive laden deal) took the Saints to the deepest they'd ever gone in the playoffs.

Rivers and the Chargers won 14 games, though they lost in the divisional round to the Patriots. The same playoffs where Peyton Manning would go on to win the Super Bowl.

Eli and the Giants went back to the playoffs, but like Rivers, were one and done.

In 2007, Warner had a comeback year. Leinart failed to progress as a sophomore, and Warner started 11 games and passed for over 3,000 yards for the first time in six seasons.

Kerry Collins spent most of 2007 on the bench.

Drew Brees and the Saints came down to earth, but more because of the Saints defense than Brees' play.

Philip Rivers and the Chargers made it into the playoffs and in the first round defeated Vince Young's Titans raising questions about Young's ability to play QB at the pro level. In the following round the Chargers would defeat Peyton Manning's Colts. The Chargers would end their season as victory number 18 in the Patriots recording breaking 18-0 run, a run that ended with Eli Manning.

In 2007 pressure began to build for Eli. The New York media began to critique his leadership and ability to win the big game. All of that ended when Eli lead the Giants on a miracle run, which included a Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots.

The effects of the 2004 NFL Draft came into full form in 2008.

In 2008, Warner and Collins won back their starting jobs. Warner beat out Leinart in training camp, Collins took over after a Vince Young meltdown following week 1. Warner would lead the Cardinals to their first Division championship since moving the Arizona, and Collins would lead the Titans to the best record in the NFL.

Eli and the Giants kept their Super Bowl momentum going, earning the team home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Rivers would lead the league in passer rating, as the Chargers would win the AFC West with an 8-8 record.

And Drew Brees would challenge almost every major passing record as the QB for the Saints.

Warner, Collins, Eli, and Rivers all played in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Only Warner would advance.

Warner would lose in the Super Bowl to another QB from the 2004 draft, Ben Roethlisberger, who the Pittsburgh Steelers took in the first round, after Eli and Rivers were off the board. Rumor has it however, that if the Giants couldn't get Eli, they were going to select Roethlisberger, who they valued over Rivers.

Instead the New York Giants landed Eli Manning and a Super Bowl XLII victory. The Chargers landed Philip Rivers and have been a contender ever since. The Cardinals landed Kurt Warner who helped turn the franchise from the league's worst franchise into one of it's most feared. The Titans landed Kerry Collins who gave the team it's best single season run of the decade. The Saints landed Drew Brees who, like Warner, helped ressurect a fledgling franchise. And the Steelers landed Ben Roethlisberger, who rewarded the team with two Super Bowl rings since 2004.

All because Eli Manning didn't want to play for the Chargers.

So when you watch Eli vs Brees this weekend, think about how these two are linked. Think about How Brees' awful 2003 season has shaped the NFL since. Think about all the names mentioned in this entry.

One thing is for sure though, things worked out pretty well for all six franchises.

Weekly Top 10: Top 10 #1 Picks of the Decade

Anyone who knows me knows that I love Top 10's, Top 5's, Top anything countdowns. I love ranking things. My girlfriend thinks it's a sign of a rare but serious brain condition.

I think it's because I have too much free time.

Either way, every Saturday I'm going to present a new weekly countdown. This week I'm going to be breaking down the top #1 overall picks in the NFL draft from 00-09. Now I know time hasn't given us enough time to project how good the #1 overall picks from 06-09, or even 05, are going to be, but I think we can kinda tell.

And either way, this is an easy countdown to break into for everyone.

10. 2005 Alex Smith, Quarterback Utah - San Francisco 49ers: Drafted in 2005 to a lot of speculation, Smith has done nothing but live up to every ounce of that speculation. Given every chance to take the starting Quarterback job, Smith has never capitalized; never failing to fail. Though it's still early in Smith's career, at this point he's without a doubt the worst #1 overall draft pick of the decade based on the lone fact that his career has thus far amounted to nothing. On the bright side the '9ers landed Running back Frank Gore in the 3rd round.

09. 2000 Courtney Brown, Defensive End Penn State - Cleveland Browns: Brown had a productive rookie campaign, but injuries slowed him down after that. He was a solid defensive end in the NFL when healthy, helping the Browns in their most successful season (2002), and the Denver Broncos in their best season of the decade (2005). He retired from the NFL in 2006 to absolutely no fanfare, and is likely to be remembered as nothing more than an NFL Draft Trivial Pursuit question.

08. 2002 David Carr, Quarterback Fresno State - Houston Texans: I can hear your sighs. Of all ten players on this list, I feel like this was the guy most people wanted to see succeed. He was fun to watch, had a nice arm, decent mobility, and reminded us of the great Quarterbacks of the 1990's, something that the NFL was desperate for in 2002. An awful offensive line, a franchise with seemingly no direction at the time, and a division that featured three solid pass rushes lead to Carr becoming the most sacked QB in the league, and left him permanently scarred. A failed one year stint in Carolina where he was eventually replaced by a 43 year old Vinny Testaverde (1987's #1 overall pick), lead to Carr backing up Eli Manning (2004's #1 overall pick) in New York, where he still resides. Whether or not Carr will ever get or earn another shot to start in the NFL remains to be seen, but he'll always have a soft spot in hearts, because we know in a better situation he would've been good. Had the Texans entered the league the year before Carr would've been drafted by the Panthers who at the time were proud to have Chris Weinke on their roster. In 2003 a no named QB known as Jake Delhomme lead the Panthers to the Super Bowl... Oh what could have been.

07. 2007 JaMarcus Russell, Quarterback LSU - Oakland Raiders: In a couple of years Russell can easily be sitting at #10, but for now I still think he's got a chance. Sure his work ethic has been called abysmal, his weight is a top tier joke amongst fans, teammates, and peers, and so far this season he's made about one good play. But let's give Russell a break, he got drafted by the Raiders. This is the same offense that made Randy Moss look like Craphonso Thorpe the year before Russell was drafted. We've seen signs of Russell being good; not great, but good. He's still young, and the Raiders have some pieces in tact. We'll know more about where he is in two years.

06. 2009 Matthew Stafford, Quarterback Georgia - Detroit Lions: I guess this is going out on a limb a little bit, but heck, in his rookie year he already looks better than half the QB's in the league. Perhaps his even greater achievement is getting the Lions their first win since 2007. If he can stay healthy, Stafford will be a legitimate NFL quarterback, and he'll help the Lions contend year in and year out. In a division that is shaping up to have some adequate quarterbacking for the next four to five years, Stafford will be the flagship signal caller. Maybe he'll be another Joey Harrington, but I think he'll fall more along the lines of a much cooler Jay Cutler.

05. 2003 Carson Palmer, Quarterback USC - Cincinnati Bengals: In 2005 I would have said Palmer was going to be the #1 of the decade. Things were looking great for Carson. He was leading the Bengals to a division title, he had a solid offense around him, a seemingly brilliant head coach, and for the first time since Boomer Esiason (stint one) the Bengals had a quarterback whose name wasn't immediately followed by laughter (sorry Jeff Blake... I always drafted you in Quarterback Club 1998 for N64). Unfortunately for Palmer that 2005 season ended in the operating table for Palmer and a knee injury was later fallowed by good numbers but few wins in 06, and 07, and an elbow injury in 08. 09 has been a sweeter year for Palmer, and he has top level QB talent. This is the seventh year of his career though and he's yet to get past the first round of the playoffs. Though it may not be his fault entirely, it's time for Palmer to start making dents outside of Fantasy Football.

04. 2001 Michael Vick, Quarterback Virginia Tech - Atlanta Falcons: Before he went to prison in 2007, Vick's career was already under scrutiny and was seemingly on the decline. That being said, outside of Eli Manning, Vick went deeper in the playoffs than all of the other QB's taken in the first round this decade, and won more playoff games than all of them combined (then again so has every Quarterback who's ever won a playoff game). In 04 Vick came a win away from the Super Bowl, and holds the record for most yards rushing in a single season for a QB. Overall Vick's career in Atlanta has to be considered above average, and given the 07 and 08 seasons to develop, it's not absurd to suggest that Vick may have developed even further as a QB. At this point in time though, it's hard to see Vick ever returning to the explosive player he was from 2002 to 2006, but NFL history will one day write that there was a time period where Michael Vick was the most feared player in the NFL.

03. 2008 Jake Long, Offensive Tackle Michigan - Miami Dolphins: It's been barely over a season but Long has already made his impact. He's a solid Left Tackle, and in 08 he helped the Dolphins establish a solid running game, and helped Chad Pennington finish as runner up in MVP balloting. A lot of GM's will say that the left tackle is the most important position in football (right tackle if your QB is a lefty) and one season into his career, Long has already established himself as a top shelf left tackle, making the Pro Bowl in his rookie year. If he stays healthy, Long will likely find himself in a lot of Pro Bowls, as he follows in the footsteps of Orlando Pace as OT's taken #1 overall.

02. 2006 Mario Williams, Defensive End NC State - Houston Texans: When the Texans announced before the draft that they were going to take DE Mario Williams #1 overall in a draft that included Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, and A.J Hawk, the average football fan let out a resounding "do the Texans ever want to get good?" As the season started the drafting of Williams looked even worse as Dominick Davis got hurt before the season started, David Carr... well he is the #8 player on this list so I guess that's all I need to say, and the Williams started the season slow, never really picking up his pace. That same season Reggie Bush helped the Saints to the NFC Championship game, Vince Young won Rookie of the Year, and Matt Leinart showed signs of brilliance. Since then, Bush, Young, Leinart, and Hawk have played average to below average football at the pro level, while Williams has picked up 26 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, and over 100 tackles. He's been a Pro Bowler, a first team All-Pro, and has helped the Texans defense develop into one of the most respectable defensive units in the league.

01. 2004 Eli Manning, Quarterback Ole Miss - San Diego Chargers: Where do we begin? We all know about the trade to the Giants. We all know about the Super Bowl MVP where he outperformed Tom Brady; We know about "the Catch pt 2" We know about "the touchdown." But anyone who has watched the NFL since 2005 knows there is a lot more to Eli than those two plays. It seems like week in and week out, Eli does what he has to do just win games. He's become the unsung king of the two minute drill, and without a doubt he's evolved from punchline to elite QB. In 2004 it looked like the Chargers were going to get the better end of the deal... at least until Nate Kaeding played the Jets, but in 2005 when the Chargers drafted Shawne Merriman with a pick from the Giants, and in 2006 when Merriman and Philip Rivers who the Chargers got in the Eli trade, lead the Chargers to a 14-2 record, it looked like a "lights out" trade for the Chargers (awful pun... I hope you cringed). Since Ellis Hobbs and company did lights out in the 2006 AFC Division playoffs in San Diego, the trade has turned face. Merriman has thus far fallen off, Nate Kaeding, though good, is still just a kicker, and it's hard to argue Rivers case versus Eli (sounds like a great post to come).

Needless to say, Eli has handled the pressure of New York better than anyone ever has. Eli has kept a cool head, never missed the playoffs, and has yet to miss a start since taking over from Kurt Warner in 04. All things considered it's hard to imagine Philip Rivers keeping as cool of a head as Eli in the city that has made a living hell out of the lives of Alex Rodriguez, Brett Favre, Wayne Gretzky, and Patrick Ewing.

So there you have it. 10 years of number one picks, and Eli Manning pans out (thus far) as the best. How many of these guys will be enshrined in Canton? Will any of them? Usually it's between two to three players, which seems about right for this decade.