Are We At The High Water Mark of Tim Tebow's Professional Career?

The biggest story of the 2011 NFL season has been Tim Tebow. Since the preseason, Tebow has consumed the national newspaper headlines, the blogosophere, and every television network that covers the NFL, or sports in general for that matter. Considering all that's gone on this NFL season with headlines such as a lock out, Peyton Manning's potentially career ending injury, an undefeated Green Bay Packer team that looks scarier than the 2007 Patriots could have ever dreamed of becoming, the turmoil in Philadelphia, and the reemergence of the San Francisco 49ers, it's pretty impressive that Tim Tebow has been the consummating story of this season.

It began in training camp with the debate over whether or not Tebow or Orton should be the Broncos week one starter. Eventually, coach John Fox declared Orton to be the starter and every news media outlet reported that Tebow couldn't even make second string, losing that right to former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn. Fans who don't watch the preseason but read distorted headlines found this information to be humorous, and eventually Tim Tebow became a punchline for the casual fan.

Then, in case you missed a bulk of the summer Tebow bashing, Merril Hoge stepped in to make sure you caught up in time for the preseason.

For those unfamiliar with Hoge, he was an NFL player who spent seven seasons as a fullback with the Pittsburgh Steelers and five games with the Chicago Bears before injuries and ineffectiveness lead to his retirement. Hoge was an average blocker, though he did help Barry Foster become a Pro Bowl running back, and Hoge himself was more of a running fullback, and at times a very effective one. Nevertheless, today Hoge presents himself as a film-room guru and a quarterbacks expert on various ESPN shows, and this summer Hoge went out of his way to tweet "...It's embarassing to think the Broncos could win with Tebow!!"

Then came the actual preseason, where the Broncos quarterback situation was the most talked about positional battle in the NFL. In limited action, Tebow looked solid, though because none of his play was with the first team, the media and such found ways to ridicule Tebow's play, and began to designate a place for him on the "all-time busts" list.

But the fans in Denver and around the country never bought in, and after a week one loss at home to the Oakland Raiders where Kyle Orton was completely ineffective, it became even more apparent that despite what the media was saying, the fans who watch the NFL wanted to see Tim Tebow. A 1-3 start, a silly billboard outside of John Fox's office, a couple of plays at wide receiver, and talk about drafting Andrew Luck ensued until Tim Tebow finally got to play quarterback for the 2011 Denver Broncos, and Tebow put together a strong effort, almost guiding the Broncos to an improbably come from behind victory against then division leading San Diego. The Broncos were 1-4, but Tebow looked to be the Broncos starter.

Six weeks later the Broncos are 4-1, with victories of Miami, Oakland, Kansas City, and the New York Jets. Tebow's name has been dragged into MVP discussions, and at this point he's probably the second most deserving player of that award in the league behind Aaron Rodgers. Tebow is also probably to fill the third quarterback spot for the AFC in the Pro Bowl, and right now the Broncos sit one game out of first place in the AFC West.

He's become a cultural phenomenon. "Tebowing" has replaced "planking" as the thing drunks and tourists are most likely to do with their spare time. In a season with no Brett Favre and no Peyton Manning, Tebow has filled the void of "celebrity" athlete that Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have had trouble filling. He leads off every SportsCenter or affiliated show. He may not be the most beloved player in the NFL, but right now he's certainly the biggest, and most importantly he's backing up his celebrity with big, dramatic, wins.

Now the question is will it sustain? Intangibles have gotten Tim Tebow to this 4-1 record, but can intangibles take Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos to the playoffs? Conventional wisdom would say "no." Conventional wisdom also told us that a quarterback can't win going 2 for 8. Conventional wisdom told us that Kyle Orton gave the Broncos the best chance to win. Conventional wisdom told us that down 15 with less than three minutes to go on the road there was no chance the Broncos would beat the Dolphins. Conventional wisdom told us that Tebow couldn't win on the road in Oakland a week after getting embarrassed by the Detroit Lions. And of course conventional wisdom told us that "it's embarrassing to think that the Broncos could win with Tim Tebow!!"

Sometimes conventional wisdom is wrong.

Now I've always said, and I'll continue to say that I think Tim Tebow will be successful in the NFL lining up under center. He's not a tight end, he's not a full back. Tim Tebow is a quarterback. While he may not be a starting quarterback that can win a Super Bowl, Tebow is certainly a piece that a team can use to win one. A team like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New York Jets who could use Tebow in red zone and short yardage packages where Tebow could come in and move the chains or score, much like Tebow did on the 2006 Florida Gator national championship team. Perhaps a coach like Bill Belichick will see in Tebow the opportunity to fix a run game that has been plaguing his team in big games since the retirement of Corey Dillon. Perhaps Andy Reid or Sean Payton or some other coach not afraid to experiment will bring Tebow in. But the bottom line is that someone out there eventually will.

And before that happens Tebow first needs to come down from the high that he's on now. It would be great to see the 2011 Denver Broncos go from 1-4 to the playoffs. I think that will happen. After that, who knows? But one thing I can say is that thus far, conventional wisdom has been wrong. You can say NFL defenses will eventually catch up, "but catch up to what?" is what I'd reply. Tebow hasn't been playing quarterback well at all. Some might even arguing he's playing the worst quarterback that any QB with a 4-1 record has ever obtained. And conventional wisdom would state that Tim Tebow's passing will only get better as he sees more in game action.

Maybe this time conventional wisdom will finally be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Now Is Not The Time For Tebow To Start

Let's get one thing straight: I think that there is hope for Tim Tebow in the NFL. Tebow possesses the talent to win with a team in a way that few quarterbacks in the NFL can win; By exciting his teammates and getting other players around the league excited to play with Tim Tebow. You can honestly only say that about a few players around the league namely Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees (I exclude Peyton and Rivers because their teams don't tend to bring in outside offensive weapons though I'm sure people like Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith would love to see them lining up under center).

A team built around Tim Tebow can win. It can't win tomorrow, but over time a team built around Tim Tebow can win a Super Bowl. It would require bringing in players excited about Tebow's athleticism, who are willing to get used to a lefty quarterback. It would require an offensive line built to protect a quarterback like Tebow, and it would require a strong vertical passing game. These are the sort of things that made Carolina a good fit for Cam Newton and Philadelphia a good fit for Michael Vick. The franchises, the coaches, and the players are all willing to make the adjustments to facilitate towards an athletic quarterback. Everyone in the locker room understands that the quarterback may get creative on any given play, and the coaches design their plays around such creativity.

John Fox, the head coach in Denver has no creativity. He likes his offenses the old way. Run the ball up the middle and throw high percentage passes. Throughout his career he's gone to battle with quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, Vinny Testaverde, and Matt Moore. If this were an SAT question, which quarterback would follow that lineage, Orton or Tebow?

If you answered Orton, you would be correct.

Orton is as "safe" of a quarterback as there is in the league. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, there is little upside to Orton. Orton will be an adequate quarterback who if the parts around him are effective will win football games. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, Orton can indeed lose a football game for his team. Throughout his career Orton has been an awful red zone quarterback, and that sort of play has translated into what he has done in Denver. Orton is a career 79 quarterback rating and a losing record in Denver. But he's a John Fox type quarterback.

John Fox is trying to build a team that will win via defense and adequate offense. He wants to minimize risks on offense and win games 24-17. Fox wants to have big plays on offense in the passing game and he wants everything to go according to plan. That's why he didn't go after Tebow in 2010, and that's why he doesn't want Tebow in 2011. John Fox and Tim Tebow are simply a bad fit.

But eventually Tebow will have to start in Denver. The Broncos aren't going anywhere and whether it be week 3 or week 13, eventually Tebow will unseat Orton and that's where interesting thins will happen. Specifically, Broncos President John Elway sits in the stickiest seat in the cafeteria here.

If Tebow takes over for Orton and is horrible, there will be nothing lost. Tebow will be traded or cut and the Broncos can move on with their lives. If Tebow succeeds, than Elway and Fox will be forced into a marriage that neither party wants. Of course both party's want to win, but neither wants to restructure their "blueprint" around Tebow.

The best case scenario for the Broncos is that Tebow comes in, shows signs of success, but the Broncos still manage a top 10 pick in a draft with a few great quarterback prospects. Under this design, Broncos management can sell their fan base on the promise and poise of Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, or maybe even Ryan Tannehill and still trade Tebow to a team like Seattle, Miami, Oakland (though an in division trade could spell disaster), or Minnesota for a second round pick. All four of those teams are franchises willing to "take risks" and all four of those coaches aren't afraid of QBs with a tendency to ad lib.

In order for Tim Tebow to succeed in the NFL he needs to be given the right opportunity. Had Michael Vick been thrown into the Herman Edwards Jets he would have failed miserably. Tebow needs an environment where an athletic lefty Quarterback will be given the opportunity to make his own plays while surrounded by players who want to play with him. It will eventually happen in the NFL, just not Denver.

Pre-Pre-Seaon NFL Power Rankings

We’re really close to the start of the NFL preseason, so now is the right time to make the first power rankings of the year. We’ll call these the pre-preseason power rankings. Before you get upset at where your team ranks remember what power rankings really are: a ranking 1-32 of the teams with the best chances of winning the Super Bowl. That’s the goal. A team like the 2008 Chargers at 8-8 had a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the 11-5 Patriots who were absent from that year’s tournament, thus San Diego would have finished the season ranked ahead of New England.

My format for power rankings has the 32 teams broken up into four categories: the elite; or the teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl, the very good; otherwise known as the teams with an average chance to win the Super Bowl, hanging in there; or the teams who are alive but barely, and the dead; or the teams with no chance of winning the Super Bowl.

For the sake of a fresh start to a new season no team is currently classified as “dead.”

So here they are, Funk Football’s first power rankings of the new NFL season. What lockout?

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers – The defending Super Bowl champions only got healthier, which makes them better and more dangerous. Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s top difference makers, and their schedule is easy enough where even if they don’t win the division they should be in the playoffs. This team is built well and built to win anywhere, and if Rodgers is healthy enough they can beat any team.

02. New Orleans Saints – Several of you out there may be calling me crazy for putting the Saints at number two, but this is a team one year removed from one of the most dominant seasons in NFL history, and this year’s version of the team includes an upgraded running game with the addition of Heisman trophy winning running back Mark Ingram and former San Diego Charger standout Darren Sproles. Last year in a “down year” the Saints went 11-5 before an embarrassing loss on the road to the Seahawks. The 2011 Saints should be healthier, stronger on defense, better on offense, and believe it or not under the radar. They should run away with the division.

03. San Diego Chargers – A lot of people seem to think the Chargers were a losing team last year, but they were a 9-7 team, and probably the best team that didn’t make the playoffs. By the end of the season there was little doubt that they were better than the Chiefs, and New England, Indianapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore were shaking in their cleats over the prospect of facing Philip Rivers and company in the playoffs. The Chargers seem to have fixed their major weakness: special teams, which was really the teams only weakness. The running game is underrated, the defense is great, and if Bob Sanders is healthy, the Chargers will have gotten the most game changing free agent of the off season, because after all, how many Super Bowls have Asomugha and Haynesworth carried their teams to? Sanders is the 2007 defensive player of the year and he’s joining a defense where he won’t be asked to be the only guy who can make a tackle. Watch out.

04. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles made 90% of the headlines in free agency and they certainly got deeper at a ton of positions. The only thing that can stop this team is health, and running into teams like the Packers and Saints who can score on anybody. Michael Vick was a great story in 2010, but it’s important to note that in Vick’s entire career he’s never had solid back to back seasons. In order for the 2011 Eagles to obtain immortality as Super Bowl champions, Vick is not only going to have to have a solid season, he’ll probably have to have the best season of his life considering at some point he’ll like have to face opposing offenses lead by Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Peyton, Rivers, and Brady, any of which can score efficiently and mistake free.

05. New England Patriots – If the Patriots created 90% of the free agency headlines, the Patriots scooped up 9%, but their moves were far riskier. The acquisitions of Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, and Shaun Ellis would all fall under the category of low risk, high reward. The problem is, the Pats aren’t handling it as low risk, instead moving their defense to a 4-3 to better accommodate for Haynesworth, while slotting Ochocinco as their #1 receiver in Brady’s offense. If you look at these power rankings, no other team in the top six would slot Ochocinco as the number one receiver. The move to 4-3 is far riskier than the Ochocinco move, not just because all five of Belichick’s Super Bowl victories have been with a 3-4, but because Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees have obscene career numbers against the 4-3, and relatively poor numbers against the 3-4. Still, I have to give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise. A tough division and a tough inter-conference schedule is this team’s biggest concern. A first round bye is paramount to a Super Bowl run for this team.

06. Indianapolis Colts – If the Colts plan to go back to the Super Bowl, this might be their last best chance, at least with this system. I’m not worried about Peyton’s neck, the Colts offense will be better than they were last year with an upgraded offensive line, and a healthy Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. What makes the Colts more dangerous than before are the defensive acquisitions they’ve made: the addition of injury plagued Tommie Harris, who by all accounts is now healthy, rivals that of the Bob Sanders acquisition as the best unsung signing of the offseason. You have to believe that if the Jets, Patriots, or Eagles made those signings it would be the second coming of Warren Sapp for all of those franchises. That’s east coast media bias, which has never stopped the Colts from having a great shot at a ring come January. This year should be no different. Like the Chargers and the Saints they’re flying under the radar right now, and that’s dangerous.

07. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have followed their other two Super Bowl berths in the Roethlisberger era with seasons in which they don’t make the playoffs. A part of me believes that will be the case again for the Steelers, but I don’t believe enough in the Ravens or Browns to see that as plausible just yet. I think a Super Bowl loss will motivate this team, and a healthy Troy Polamalu is as valuable as any other team’s best player. The rings speak for themselves in Pittsburgh, and as long as Roethlisberger and Polamalu are there (and healthy), this is the team to beat in the AFC North.

08. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens have been good enough to get out of the first round the past three years, but not good enough to get to a Super Bowl. The Ravens best shot at getting to one is going to be by getting a first round bye, and if ever that was possible this is the year. The Ravens need to stay healthy on defense, but if Joe Flacco can take that next step to borderline Pro Bowl quarterback, this Ravens team can win the division, and potentially get that first round bye. If they do, then watch out.

09. New York Jets – The New York Jets Super Bowl hopes begin and end with Mark Sanchez. In order for the Jets to get to that next level, Sanchez needs to get to that next level. The Jets have gotten to the conference title game two years in a row the hard way; on the road as a wild card team with a below average playoff quarterback. If they had an average to above average playoff quarterback the Jets would have likely gone to the Super Bowl one of those years. The Jets roster is strong enough where Sanchez isn’t going to be asked to be Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, instead he’s going to be asked to be Brad Johnson circa 2002. Before you laugh at that here are Brad Johnson’s 2002 numbers: 62.3 completion percentage, 234.5 passing yards/game, 11:3 TD:INT ratio, 92.9 QBR. The only thing to laugh at may be expecting Sanchez to obtain those sort of numbers, nevertheless it’s what he’s going to need to do if the Jets want to get past Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, and Roethlisberger, most importantly in the regular season where the Jets have struggled the past two seasons.

10. Atlanta Falcons – Call me crazy for putting them down at number ten, but I just see this as a step back year for Atlanta. A lot went right for the Falcons in 2010, including being in the same division as a hung-over Saints, but in the playoffs the Falcons proved they didn’t belong on the field with the eventual Super Bowl champions. This year it may be the Falcons who have the hangover. I think this team is good enough to get to the playoffs, but their schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk, either. Julio Jones is a great add, but rarely do rookie wide receivers make the impact that puts a team over the top.

11. Dallas Cowboys – If the Saints, Chargers, and Colts are under the radar, then the Cowboys are beneath under the radar. This is a team that has flirted with an NFC title for awhile now, but fell short due to a poor coaching staff and a mismanaged roster. A healthy Tony Romo, a new regime, and low expectations may be the gift that the Cowboys needed this whole team, at least for the first few weeks of the season and training camp. Expect Dallas to be back in the playoffs, and if the roster lives up to its potential, there’s a great chance they could be representing the NFC in Indianapolis.

The Very Good

12. Minnesota Vikings – Brett Favre’s miserable play and a bad offensive line in 2010 made us forget how good the 2009 Vikings really were. The roster isn’t that far gone and 2011 Donovan McNabb should be an upgrade over 2010 Brett Favre. This is a team that can compete for a playoff spot, and if things unfold the right way compete for a division title. Adrian Peterson should have a good year behind a revamped offensive line, and playing in a dome (ten times) should help revitalize Donovan McNabb’s career the way it helped Favre once upon a time. They may not win the Super Bowl, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re better than the Eagles.

13. New York Giants – In 2007 Michael Strahan held out, Tiki Barber said sayonara, Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin were severely questioned, and the Giants did nothing but go on to win the Super Bowl. This year, Eli and Coughlin are again on the hot seat, Osi Umenyiora is holding out, and Tiki Barber is trying to find a team to attempt a comeback with. With all of the NFC talk focused outside of the Meadowlands, don’t be surprised if this is the year the Giants make another great run. Eli Manning is, believe it or not an underrated quarterback, and Coughlin coached teams are often winners. If they can sneak into the playoffs they’ll be dangerous, I’m not sure if they can win a division title, though. Injuries to start the season will hurt them.

14. Houston Texans – The Texans have felt like an on-the-verge team since 2004, but they have made some above average moves this offseason, and the Colts aren’t as dominant in that division as they once were. The key to the Texans season will be winning week one versus Indianapolis and using that momentum to help win a division title, the way the Titans did in 2008. If the Texans can get to the playoffs, then they’ll have that 2008 Cardinals danger to them that could help them defeat the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, or Jets.

15. Chicago Bears – I’m going to go out and say it; I think this will be a down year for Chicago. The defense will be solid if healthy, Roy Williams could be a good addition at WR, and Jay Cutler may finally take that next step, but in reality they’re going to need all of those things to occur in order to get back to where they were. The window is closing in Chicago though, they have a veteran defense, so if they don’t get back to the playoffs this year, that may be it for this incarnation of the Bears.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars made a lot of moves this offseason, most of which I thought were bad. If David Garrard is injured to start the season then this team is dead on arrival, but if not they have a shot to win the AFC South, which is perhaps the most wide open division in the AFC. But in reality, number sixteen of thirty two is about where Jaguars are, and always seem to be. Until Jack Del Rio moves on I can’t see this team being consistent enough to get through Peyton or the Texans.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I have the Bucs at seventeen not because I think they’re untalented, but because I hate the division that they’re stuck in. The Bucs are a good young team with a lot of talent, but when they play four of their games against the Falcons and Saints it will always be hard to win their division. On top of that games vs Indianapolis, Dallas, and Houston, and at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville could make this a long year for the Bucs.

18. St. Louis Rams – The Rams should win their division. The defense is strong and will likely improve a good amount this year. This teams entire Super Bowl hopes hinge on the arm of Sam Bradford, who will be asked to make progress like fellow former number one overall pick Peyton Manning made in 1999, his second pro season. The problem is, since Peyton Manning no second year quarterback who started their first year has made that sort of progress so it’s unrealistic, on top of that, 1999 Peyton Manning didn’t get to the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, a division title in 2011 will go a long way towards eventually helping Bradford get what Manning eventually got as well, a Super Bowl ring. I like Bradford, I could see him being a Pro Bowler this year, and I can see the Rams having a strong season, I just don’t think I can see them having a Super season.

19. Detroit Lions – I’m going to say it: the Lions can win the Super Bowl. What’s the catch? They play in the NFC North. I think the Lions will be improved this year, and if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, this could be a winning team and even a playoff team. I just don’t know if they can go deep into the playoffs just yet. The defense is going to be great one day, and the offense has potential to be even better. 2011 should be the year where the Lions finally re-enter the NFL as a legitimate team. If they’re healthy, that will definitely happen.

Hanging In There

20. San Francisco 49ers – In a way it’s a good thing that the 49ers plan to find out what they have in Alex Smith once and for all. Unfortunately for the 49ers I think that they’re going to find out Alex Smith isn’t a winning quarterback at this level. If the Rams don’t move forward, the 49ers could pass them and potentially win this division on the strength of the players around Smith. I could see the 49ers getting back to the playoffs this year, but I can’t see them going any further than a first round beat down by Philadelphia, New York, or Dallas.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – They were a playoff team last year and the most embarrassed playoff team at that. The best thing that could happen for this relatively young team would be to have a down year and find a real future quarterback. Cassell is good to start another year after this season, but I can’t see the Chiefs ever competing for a ring with Cassell. With Denver and Oakland ready to go on the rise, now would be the right time for the Chiefs to fail, before mediocrity turns them into this decades Buffalo Bills.

22. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals cashed in their future for Kevin Kolb, a quarterback who has shown some signs of excellence these past few years, as well as some signs of futility. We’ll see what they have in Kolb, but the bigger problems in Arizona lie elsewhere. The offensive line has gotten worse, the defense has gotten worse, and I’m not sure if Kevin Kolb can do what Kurt Warner was able to do. I don’t see Arizona getting back to the playoffs this year, I honestly thing St. Louis are better overall, but if the Kolb move was a good one, then the Cardinals can become a force in the NFC again very soon.

23. Cleveland Browns – I’ll come out and say it: I like Colt McCoy as a pro quarterback. I think he has the intangibles, and enough of the skill set to succeed along the lines of a Flacco or Roethliberger, in that the numbers won’t be gaudy but the wins will be in abundance. The problem is, it will be hard for McCoy to pan out on an offense with so few weapons. The Jets got Sanchez every weapon he could ever ask for. The Broncos and Rams surrounded Tebow and Bradford with solid offensive weapons as yet. The Browns continue to rebuild, and McCoy may become the victim of this rebuilding process. Nevertheless, this is a team with a shot at the wild card in a slim AFC wild card picture. In order for that to happen, McCoy may need to play out of his mind, something I don’t think he’s ready to do.

24. Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll is becoming a mad scientist as a head coach. I can’t see this year going as well as last year. Their quarterback situation should be renamed “backup city” and their defense is average at best. I can see them battling around .500, but I honestly believe 6-10 is their peak.

25. Washington Redskins – Tough division for a team to try to rebuild in, especially with a coach like Mike Shanahan. If this season goes well for Shanahan then we’ll have to concede to his genius. If this season goes poorly for Shanahan then we’ll have to say that Al Davis was actually right and the only reason Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings is because of Terrell Davis and John Elway. The somewhere in between would be that Shanahan got too far inside his own head to the point where he started to believe in his ego, which told him that he could win a tough division with Rex Grossman or John Beck at quarterback, with no offensive game-breaker, and an improving but not great defense.

26. Miami Dolphins – They have the roster to become the most exciting team in the AFC East, the issue is they don’t have the quarterback. Instead of going after Orton they should go after Tebow. They won’t win much in the AFC East this year, but it’ll be fun to watch. Tebow in Florida would turn the NFL on its head, and with Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall, he could actually meet his potential as a major offensive weapon. It won’t happen because of the fan backlash that will occur in Denver, who are absolutely smitten with Tebow, but this what-if get’s the point across. The Dolphins biggest issue is quarterback, and they have done very little to address this issue. If Chad Henne develops this year, then I can see them making a push for the playoffs and hurting the Patriots and Jets first round bye hopes.

27. Oakland Raiders – It was going so well! Last year the Raiders had a shot at the playoffs. The Chargers were bewildered and the Broncos were in flux. This year the Chargers will be back and the Raiders will go back to third in the division. They had the right idea going for a veteran quarterback with Jason Campbell, but I think it’s time they find that franchise quarterback. If you’re going to beat Rivers consistently, you’ll need that heavyweight to throw up against him. It’ll be a step back year in Oakland.

28. Tennessee Titans – The Titans know that they’re rebuilding. Matt Hasselbeck is the right type of guy to tutor Jake Locker, and he’s openly willing to do it. This team’s best chance at the playoffs is Peyton Manning injury. This team’s best chance at a Super Bowl is a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers collective injury. In all seriousness, I’d rest Locker all year and let him watch.

29. Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton will start week one, but we know that right now this franchise is relevant for one reason only, they currently own the rights to the NFL’s greatest enigma: Timothy Tebow. The Broncos have little to no hope this year, and all you Tebow-maniacs can circle Sunday, October 23 on your calendars as the day the Tebow era truly begins, in Florida when the 1-4 Broncos take on the 1-4 Dolphins. If the Broncos win that one expect to hear about whether or not Tebow is the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Expect them to maybe win four to five games after that.

30. Carolina Panthers – I could see this defense being really good. I hope they give Jimmy Clausen a chance to sort of impress the league so that the Panthers can trade him for a mid to late round pick, probably to Washington or Seattle where they collect those sort of players. Cam Newton will probably do alright as a rookie, I can’t see him doing great like Roethlisberger or Young, and the Panthers won’t be as patient with him as the Broncos were with Tebow, in part because the Panthers don’t need a QB controversy between Clausen and Newton, two young guys. A brutal division will force this team to pick in the top five again next year, and I expect them to use it to find Cam some protection.

31. Buffalo Bills – This is the team that Andrew Luck should go to. It would be great, and he could singlehandedly help keep the Bills in Buffalo long term. C’mon Bills, do us a favor, don’t go on another stupid November-December run that moves you from number one pick to number eight pick. Not this year. In Andrew Luck you would have the best quarterback in the AFC East by 2013, and if you prefer Fitzpatrick and his Harvard degree please note one thing: Andrew Luck will have a Stanford degree. Me personally, I trust a Stanford man more than a Harvard man at anything.

32. Cincinnati Bengals – This team will probably end up at 32 at the end of the year. The problem is this is the one franchise at the bottom that doesn’t want to be in that position because they just wasted an early second round pick on an average quarterback named Andy Dalton. If Dalton shows hope this year, they’ll probably try to trade that number one pick to someone who needs it. If not, then Andrew Luck, like Carson Palmer, will be a Pac 10 quarterback headed to Cincinnati where he’ll likely never meet his potential.

Weighing In On the Tim Tebow Media Storm

Tim Tebow is an "A-List" national sports star. You may not like to hear that, but he is. Tebow's celebrity is on par with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning, and surpasses that of virtually every other active NFL player. East Coast sports fans (I'm looking mostly at New England and New York) will respond to that statement with something along the lines of, "you gotta be kiddin' me!? Tebow is a bum. What has he eva dun?"

What has Tim Tebow ever done? At the University of Florida he won two national championships, was the first Sophomore to ever win the Heisman trophy, was a finalist for another two Heisman trophy's, had an 88 to 16 career TD to INT ratio, ran for 2,947 career yards and another 57 touchdowns, and was the first player since the 1950's to win the prestigious Maxwell Award twice; an award given out to the best overall player in college football. If you don't watch college football then you don't appreciate Tim Tebow's greatness, the same way where if you don't watch the NBA you don't appreciate Dwight Howard's greatness. Bottom line is that the greatness is there, and Tim Tebow did more for the popularity of college football on the national stage than any player in the history of the sport. College success does not mean Tebow will have NFL success, but it explains his vast popularity without going to East Coast media route and attributing it entirely to southern Christians.

And now there's a media fire surrounding reports in Denver that Tim Tebow is going to again enter the regular season as the backup quarterback for the Broncos, but the truth is that this really isn't that big of a deal. This doesn't mean that Tim Tebow is a bust at the pro level, it doesn't mean that Tebow will never start a game as pro. The only thing that this means is that in week one, Denver will be starting Kyle Orton at quarterback because they believe he gives them the best chance to win.

Last year Tim Tebow started three games for the Broncos, throwing for 650 yards, rushing for 200, with five passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Broncos went 1-2 in those three games which took place in a season where they went 4-12. For a rookie quarterback, those are above average numbers (if you want to use fantasy sports as a means to understand those numbers, Tebow was the leading fantasy QB for the combined weeks of 15-17 last year), and if you've had an opportunity to watch the games in which Tebow played in, there was a certain energy surrounding a lifeless team that didn't exist before.

I understand where Brandon Lloyd is coming from with his frustration surrounding Tebow vs Orton. The fans, the media, and even some players and coaches want to see what Tim Tebow can do in large part because he is already an "A-List" sports celebrity. Some people may read into Lloyd's frustration as a sign that Tebow is an inferior player to Kyle Orton. That may be the case, but what I take from it is that Lloyd wants to know who the QB is going to be because he needs to prepare. One thing that no one is really talking about in this is the fact that Tim Tebow is a left quarterback, and when you have a lefty quarterback, especially a young one, players need time to adjust because the ball is going to be coming at them from a different angle. Not to mention that Tebow's style is drastically different than Kyle Orton's.

When Steve Young, a lefty QB with mobility, took over for Joe Montana, a righty QB with little mobility, there was a learning curve early on, and at times the 49ers players were completely out of sync on offense. Last year, Michael Vick was successfully able to acclimate to the Eagles offense, but he had already been on the team for two seasons, including one full offseason, not to mention the players were used to Donovan McNabb's big arm and ability to throw outside the pocket.

Tim Tebow is probably not ready to be an NFL starting QB, but it doesn't mean that he will never be. I'll also go on the record and say that I believe Tebow will start more than three games for the Broncos this year, because once the Broncos end up 2-5 or 3-6, there will be no reason to stick with Orton. Kyle Orton is a nice quarterback with a career 11-17 record in Denver. He has put up some gaudy numbers the past two seasons in Denver, numbers that Tebow will likely never be able to put up, but I firmly believe that Tebow could put up better numbers than 11-17, and he has done nothing to prove otherwise. Not in college, not in the pros, not in practice, not in the locker room.

Whatever Tim Tebow does is news, and it will continue to be news because it gets ESPN, NFLN, and all the sports blogs, radio shows, and websites great ratings. He will never be Drew Brees, but a franchise would dumb to ask him to be. What Tim Tebow has the potential to be is Vince Young with a good head on his shoulders, and for all the headaches that Vince Young created, he has a much better career winning percentage than Kyle Orton.

Tebow Turns It Around For Day 2

Yesterday, while the entire sports blogosphere was destroying his pro career before he was even drafted, Tim Tebow was apparently receiving medical treatment for a throat ailment.

Today, Tebow came back and performed at a much higher level. Tebow's coach in the Senior Bowl, Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano stated that Tebow looked a lot more comfortable under center and his release was becoming quicker. Tebow has also done well processing information, and learning the playbook.
What this shows is just how smart and coachable Tim Tebow is. Though it's impossible to guarantee that Tebow will translate his talents to the pro game, but at this point in time things are starting to look better for Tebow. Rebounding from a nationally publicized "awful" day of practice is the first of the endless hurdles that Tim Tebow will have to overcome in order to become a successful professional quarterback.

For everybodys sake, let's hope that Tebow excels or fails sooner than later this way stories like this one become less relevant.

Gearing Up For the Senior Bowl

It's that week of the year. The week where we reminisce on the past college football season while evaluating some of the best NFL prospects as they gear up for a meaningless game. And while the Senior Bowl does have slightly more of a competitive edge than the Pro Bowl, it's the week of practices that makes the Senior Bowl something special.

This year the huge story entering Saturday's game is Tim Tebow and how his game will translate to the pro level. Earlier today Chris Mortensen reported via Twitter that Tebow looked really bad at practice. Though I'm sure Tebow, who is arguably the greatest college football player of all time, will heat up at some point, his draft stock is definitely on the line this week, despite a performance for the ages in the Orange Bowl.

While Tim Tebow is definitely the "A" story this week (and once the Super Bowl is over he'll become the "A" story of the next 2 months), several of his South Team teammates will be interesting to evaluate as well. Taylor Mays, Terrence Cody, and Dan Williams are all projected to be first round picks. Though you're probably saying to yourself "why would I watch a game if a team has only three projected first round picks on it?" Understand that this is an opportunity for a lot of these players to raise their draft stock in a year that features more junior prospects than ever before.

The North team is lead by quarterback Tony Pike of Cincinnati who looks to get his revenge on Tebow for the Orange Bowl blow out. A few potential first rounders that Pike is going to war with include Mike Iupati, Jared Odrick and Sean Weatherspoon, and Jon Asamoah.

Pike and Tebow will also be battling one another for their position in the bottom three of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL draft.

Pike and North team are lead by the Detroit Lions coaching staff while Tebow and the South are lead by Steve Spagnuolo and the Miami Dolphins coaching staff. This bit of information is important because in the past Bill Parcells has given Tim Tebow the biggest endorsement the Heisman winner has ever received by stating that Tebow is a first round pick.

This will be a perfect opportunity for Tebow to prevent Parcells from eating his own words.