Should Jimmy Clausen Get a Second Chance?

It was only two years ago that Jimmy Clausen was being discussed as the number one quarterback in the NFL draft if an injured Sam Bradford decided to come back for a junior season.

In football, two years can be a lifetime, and for Clausen it only took 10 starts for the Carolina Panthers to give up on their 2010 2^nd round pick. Cam Newton, Carolina’s 2011 first round draft choice, is more than just the quarterback of the future in Carolina, he’s the identity the franchise had been searching for since their inaugural season in 1995. He’s what some in Carolina had hoped Jimmy Clausen could be.

But thus far Jimmy Clausen has been nothing but a powder keg of potential. Countless reports have been written about how good Jimmy Clausen was going to be since his junior year of high school in 2005. He was called the “LeBron James of football,” and every big name school from USC, near his home in Thousand Oaks, California, to Tennessee, where his brother Casey lead the the Volunteers to three winning seasons, tried to recruit Clausen. Clausen opted for the glory of Notre Dame, where then head coach Charlie Weis salivated over the opportunity to inject Clausen into his pro-style offense.

But the Clausen/Weis era was a disaster for Notre Dame, leading to Weis’ firing after the 2009 season, which lead Clausen to declare himself eligible for the 2010 NFL draft. Early projections saw Clausen going in the early first round, but draft day 2010 was less kind. Teams such as Buffalo, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Cleveland, all seemingly needing quarterbacks, passed on Clausen until he ended up in Carolina, a situation that looked excellent for the young passer, given that long time Panthers starter Jake Delhomme was moving on, and the Panthers were a team only a year removed from the two seed in the NFC.

But 2010 was such a disaster in Carolina that John Fox, the head coach who drafted Clausen, lost his job. Wide receiver Steve Smith publicly griped about Clausen’s poor play, and it was even rumored that Clausen’s teammates vehemently disliked him, a reputation that had been following the young passer since high school.

But Clausen is still young, and at age 24 he’s played in a lot of games, seen a lot of adversity, and has played for some excellent coaches to potentially learn from. In the long run, his awful rookie campaign and this year on the bench could supplement his three years as a starter at Notre Dame towards developing Clausen into a better NFL player. Perhaps he learned from his shortcomings as a leader in Carolina and can one day become a captain elsewhere.

But right now there’s nothing Jimmy Clausen can do. Barring a major injury to Cam Newton, Clausen will not see the field the rest of the 2011 season. Odds are that Carolina will fully endorse Newton at the end of the year and part ways with Clausen’s salary, allowing Clausen and his agent to decide where the best place for Jimmy Clausen to continue his NFL career will be.

But there’s one problem: teams traditionally don’t invest their future in other teams damaged goods. Clausen will also hit a market that includes Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, Chad Pennington, Matt Flynn, and potentially Peyton Manning. Though Clausen is likely viewed as having more upside than those players (based entirely on age), odds are that at least some of those players are going to inherit the open starting jobs, forcing Clausen to follow Matt Leinart and the aforementioned Young in taking backup jobs in situations they seem as potentially fruitful.

Or maybe Clausen won’t be so lucky. Maybe teams like Jacksonville, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota, Seattle, or Arizona won’t want him. Maybe Clausen will be forced to sign on as a backup to a well-engraved starter such as Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Matthew Stafford. But Clausen doesn’t deserve that, not yet.

But for Jimmy Clausen it’s never been about learning, growing, and developing. Dating back to his days in high school he’s been expected to be great, resulting in a sense of entitlement. And while the LeBron James comparisons have become laughable, Jimmy Clausen should get another shot to be an NFL starter. Clausen has potential and he has talent, what he didn't have were the intangibles, but this summer some NFL team will buy into what the scouts have written one more time, and give Jimmy Clausen one last chance to prove they're right.

Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Accessing 15 High Profile Quarterbacks 25 and Under

Since 2008 there has been an influx of young Quarterbacks entering the league and making an immediate impact. That season, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both helped their teams get to the playoffs as rookies, and the following season Mark Sanchez did the same with the New York Jets. This past season saw college football icons Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy change the fortunes of the dwindling St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns, and it’s no surprise that in the 2011 draft, six teams drafted quarterbacks in the top 36 picks.

Right now there are fifteen big name quarterbacks under 25 in the league. Thirteen of them were drafted to be franchise quarterbacks. What I’m going to try and do a little here is project where I see these quarterbacks going. I’m not infaliable, I once thought Matt Leinart would turn the Cardinals around and that Cade McNown would be the class of the 1999 draft. That being said I also was on the side of Rodgers over Smith, Manning over Leaf, McNabb over Couch, Flacco over Brohm, Cutler over Young, and everybody else over J.P Losman. I’m just a football fan who watched all of these players in college, loves to study quarterbacks, and has a great appreciation of the history of the position.

Listed alphabetically:

Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (Age 23) – If I had to project one of these quarterbacks to be the best of the bunch I would choose Bradford. If he can stay healthy he’ll be great. In college, no young quarterback with that much raw talent showed that much poise since Peyton Manning. What may hold Bradford back is the injury question; his final season as a Sooner was plagued by a shoulder injury which he attempted to comeback from, but never regained his footing at the college level. Last year, his first as a pro, he again shadowed Manning in poise, and almost took lead the Rams to the playoffs. Projecting Bradford is easy; he’ll be a playoff QB as long as he can stay on the field. Right now he is far and away the best quarterback in the NFC West, and I don’t think that will change anytime soon.

Brian Brohm, Free Agent (Age 25) – Had Brohm come out of college in 2007, the Louisville product would have become some franchises future QB. Instead he stuck around an extra year and in 2008 was drafted in the second round as an insurance policy in case Aaron Rodgers didn’t pan out. Right now, Rodgers is the defending Super Bowl MVP, while Brohm’s career is in limbo after spending the past season and a half in Buffalo backing up QB’s with the last names Edwards and Fitzpatrick. I project that Brohm will land on a roster this season, but his only chance to ever become an NFL starter is going to be by following Fitzpatrick’s footsteps and performing well when given a chance. To this point, Brohm has had a few chances and his career will likely head the way of former Louisville prospect turned flameout Dave Ragone.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers (Age 23) – Of the 2010 QB class, some considered Clausen to be the most pro ready because of the system that he played in. Based on Clausen’s performance last year versus those of Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow it’s evident that Clausen was either less pro ready than those players, or far less talented. The Panthers believed that Clausen would improve so much so that they used the first overall pick that Clausen helped them obtain to draft another quarterback on this list, Cam Newton first overall. The good news is that not only has Clausen kept his number (2, which Newton at one point coveted), but as of this second in time he has kept the Carolina Panthers starting job. I project that at some point Clausen will lose the job, but he’s far too young to give up on. After this season Clausen will likely be on the market for cheap, and another team in search of a quarterback may take a look at Clausen instead of going through the draft. I don’t see any future for Clausen in Carolina, but I think he’ll stick around the league for awhile.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (Age 23) – Selected in the second round to be the Bengals successor to Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton is an undersized QB who played on a great college team in an average college conference. I give Dalton a very small chance to succeed in the NFL, not only because of his size and lack of skill, but also because he got drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, and as Carson Palmer cruelly found out, it’s a hard place to play. Unfortunately for Dalton, he can’t sit out this season and sign elsewhere next year. I project that Dalton will lead the Bengals to the worst record in the NFL this year, and next year Andrew Luck will be the starting quarterback in Cincinnati, as Dalton gets what we’ll call the Clausen treatment.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age 23) – Last year Josh Freeman looked like the real deal. The only thing that could get in Freeman’s way is playing in a division that already has Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and now Cam Netwon. It’s never going to be easy getting to the playoffs playing the NFC South, not for a while at least, and though the Bucs had a tremendous 2010, I see a step back year. I also expect Freeman to cool off a little bit as the rest of the NFL really begins to prepare for Josh Freeman and his excellent skill set. Nevertheless, Freeman is the real deal, and I project that at some point he’ll take the Bucs deep into the NFC playoffs, and he’s the sort of player who will make the players around him better for a long time.

Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars (Age 21) – Blaine Gabbert was the most pro ready quarterback in the NFL draft this past season, and despite his young age, he’ll likely start for the Jaguars this season at some point because it seems as though David Garrard simply cannot stay healthy. Gabbert plays in a division where offense rules, so it goes without shock that I believe Gabbert won’t be able to succeed until Jack Del Rio ends up the head coach of some college program. That being said, I project that Gabbert will be the best Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback since Mark Brunell, and that he’ll get the Jaguars back to the playoffs.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (Age 23) – Colin Kaepernick came on strong at the end of last year’s NCAA season and competed his way into the 2^nd round of this year’s NFL draft. That will be a great motivational speech that Kaepernick can one day give to family, friends, and high school players, because Kaepernick’s NFL career won’t really be worth talking about. What Kaepernick has to succeed at the pro level is size and speed. What will prevent him from succeeding is the fact that he’s just about as average as you can get at everything that goes into making a quarterback good at the pro level. I project that Colin Kaepernick will be a solid change of pace quarterback for teams looking to add a multi tool players, much like what Vince Young or Tim Tebow are. Kaepernick won’t start long term because at some point coach Jim Harbaugh will want a real quarterback.

Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans (Age 23) – The Titans invested their future in the likable Jake Locker, an athletic QB who has a lot of heart. He’s often been called a mini-Tim Tebow, but a lot of scouts think he has better fundamentals than Tebow and I’d have to agree. Locker can do well at the pro level, but like Tebow he’s going to need some time to marinate. I project that Jake Locker will be an adequate an NFL quarterback along the lines of a more athletic David Garrard.

Ryan Mallett, New England Patriots (Age 23) – Ryan Mallett went from hoping to be a first round draft pick to being drafted by the Patriots to backup Tom Brady. In all likelihood the Patriots drafted Mallett to groom, show off in ideal situations, then trade for a second or third round draft pick, or another cornerback. Mallett has a strong arm, some accuracy flaws, and a lot of mental issues. Still, he has the raw talent to become an NFL starter eventually, but if he were really any good the entire league wouldn’t have passed up on such a high profile player so many times. Every scout and coach in the NFL knew who Ryan Mallett was, and every scout and coach decided to pass on him multiple times. My projection is that unless Ryan Mallett goes to the UFL to get attention, he will never be taken seriously as a potential NFL starter. If by injury or benching Mallett gets a shot to start, he has the skill set to succeed. Chances are he will never get the chance to do so in New England.

Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns (Age 24) – Colt McCoy severely lacks arm strength. Colt McCoy is undersized. Colt McCoy’s college record means nothing because A. it’s college, and B. he inherited a national championship team. That being said, I really think Colt McCoy will be a solid NFL QB. Mike Holmgren believes in McCoy, and when Holmgren believes in QB they turn into names like Montana, Young, Favre, and Hasselbeck. McCoy should flourish in Cleveland’s west coast offense, and the defensive mindset that Cleveland is beginning to take on should alleviate a lot of the pressure off of McCoy. McCoy has shown that he is a leader, and wants to lead the Browns back to respectability. I believe that is exactly what Colt McCoy will do: make the Browns respectable.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (Age 22) – Cam Newton burst onto the national sports scene last year with the NCAA equivalent of Kurt Warner’s 1999 NFL season. Exiled from Florida, the king of JuCo, becomes Auburn’s starting QB, goes undefeated, wins national championship and Heisman Trophy. Newton takes that resume to the NFL where he’ll likely takeover the Panthers starting QB job in week one. Though a lot of people want to compare Newton to busts like JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young, or projected busts like Tim Tebow, in reality Cam Newton is a very unique player, much closer to a more athletic young Donovan McNabb than he is to either other those other players. Newton has a tremendous arm, a ton of athleticism, and isn’t as dumb as people make him out to be, or want him to be. I project that Cam Newton will have a solid NFL career, win a lot of games, make a lot of incredible plays, and become one of the most exciting players in the game.

Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings (Age 23) – Christian Ponder better hope that Donovan McNabb looks more like 2010 Donovan McNabb than the 2009 counterpart, unless a Ponder may become the new Matt Leinart. The Minnesota Vikings were never meant to be a team that brings in a young QB to be groomed so it’s fitting that Ponder sits a while. Ponder needs to sit anyway. At Florida State, Christian Ponder was a good quarterback but he never looked like a first round pick. He has a strong arm and he practices hard. I project that Christian Ponder will underachieve. He’ll make a fine backup in the NFL, but I see more Kyle Boeller than Carson Palmer in Ponder.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (Age 24) – At this point in time any flaws that I could point out in Mark Sanchez could immediately be countered by Sanchez’s two playoff berths, and 4-2 playoff record. At this point in time Sanchez is by far the most successful quarterback on this list, being the only one to start one playoff game, and is also on what looks to be the best team of the bunch. Nevertheless there are flaws in the Mark Sanchez machine. Sanchez is 6’2 225 lbs: not exactly your prototypical quarterback build. Sanchez’s arm strength is inferior to that of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and his accuracy is on par with those QB’s in the lower part of the middle tier. Still, Sanchez continues to win despite his flaws like a quarterback is asked to do. I project that Mark Sanchez will continue to develop as an NFL quarterback. He may never become a pro bowler, but I definitely believe that he will end his career with a winning record as a quarterback. He’s proven that he can win at this level.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (Age 23) – Matthew Stafford is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in NFL. How far Stafford goes as an NFL QB will be based solely around how long he can stay on the field. The Detroit Lions have a lot of good pieces in place right now, and Stafford’s offense looks like a force that will give defensive coordinators nightmares for the next decade. I project that Stafford will eventually get healthy and lead the Lions back to the playoffs within the next two seasons. Stafford will become a pro bowl caliber quarterback, and his legacy in NFL history will be cemented simply by making the Lions relevant.

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos, (Age 23) – Thanks to alphabetical order the most controversial QB on this list goes last. First the flaws: he’s a left, his accuracy is average, his release is below average, his decision making is slow, and in two training camps he couldn’t compete for the starting job. The positives: he looked every bit as good last year as Kyle Orton did, he’s a dominant athlete, a leader on the field, brings other intangibles to the Broncos offense, and in three starts last year performed as well as any other rookie that season. I project that Tim Tebow will start in the NFL, become a playoff quarterback, and continue to prove the naysayers wrong. Tebow has done nothing at either level to make me believe otherwise. If his name was Mike Jones and he performed the way he performed at Florida and on the Broncos, he’d be getting more playing respect, but selling a lot less jerseys.

The Panthers Should Start Cam Newton Week 1 No Matter What

2004. With the first overall pick the San Diego Chargers select, Eli Manning. Quarterback. University of Mississippi.

As we know the Chargers later traded that pick for Philip Rivers and lived happily ever after, right?

Not quite.

Though Rivers has been astounding, the real blunder the Chargers made that year was giving up on Drew Brees, who in 2004 developed into an all star quarterback, and by 2006 was an all-pro. The Chargers ended up getting two productive years out of Brees before letting him set sail to New Orleans. Brees has since won an offensive player of the year award, has been a perennial pro bowler, and of course a Super Bowl MVP.

Last year the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen, a quarterback out of Notre Dame in the second round of the draft. Clausen showed some signs of being pro ready, but in reality would have benefited from staying one more year at the college level, at least from a developmental standpoint. Despite a below average rookie season by post 1998 standards, Clausen does have many of the tools necessary to succeed in the NFL.

Unfortunately for Clausen, the Panthers have decided to put their future in the hands of this years #1 overall selection Cam Newton out of Auburn. Newton possesses tremendous physical talent, but his game could use a little seasoning before he steps into the pros. The issue for Newton becomes, what if Clausen becomes Brees?

And if you think Brees is a rarity, I'd beg to differ. Kurt Warner in 2007 over Matt Leinart. Derek Anderson in 2007 over Brady Quinn. Kyle Orton this offseason over Tim Tebow. These are all in the past few years. The idea of Jimmy Clausen stepping in and succeeding on a Panthers offense that really isn't that bad isn't too far fetched. It could happen, and it would be a mess for Carolina.

Tebow and Quinn were low-risk late first round draft picks. Tebow and Quinn were both teams second first round draft picks that year. Cam Newton was the Panthers #1 overall pick, he's what the franchise plans to build it's future around. Carolina has never had a player as marketable as Newton who with a few good seasons could become the face of the league. If by some chance Jimmy Clausen comes in and does well the last thing Newton and the Panthers need is a controversy.

But the object is to win, right? Yes. And if Clausen looks like Brees circa 2004, then maybe you trade Cam Newton for a first overall pick, I'm sure you could get it. Odds are he won't and he'll look more like a 2007 Derek Anderson. Neither Quinn nor Anderson panned out for the Browns and today some scouts believe it was because of the mismanaging of the QB depth chart.

Put the ball in Newton's hands and see what he has for the next three years. Perhaps my philosophy is flawed, but in this era of free agency where a QB only has a 4 year contract to develop, you need to know if he's your guy or not almost right away.