Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Why the Colts Should Hope for Luck: How the Colts are Lucky to Have a Bright Future.

***Written by guest columnist Sebastian Pardo***

Sports when at their most beautiful, illustrate complex and profound life lessons, that can often much more cleanly, and clearly express the complicated bitter-sweet nature of life. While this might be an over-simplification, the 2011 season for the Indianapolis Colts could be a lesson in patience, and illustrate the often cop-out philosophy of “things happen for a reason”.

The Manning-less Colts are finally facing the question they’ve been too scared to consider. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

The result is a team, spoiled by Manning, that has been neglected, and left to rot. For years Manning through shear obsessive perseverance has spackled in the void of both leadership, and perhaps talent to keep the Colts relevant in the regular season, and more importantly to the Owner/CEO Jim Irsay, as a brand.

The Colts this year are living “A Christmas Carol” like season. This year they are getting a glimpse of the Ghost of Colts’ Future, and like Scrooge come 2012, they can shudder and shake off the frightening spectre, and apply the lessons learned to save their franchise.

And that’s exactly why they should select Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck.

Manning, will be age 36 at the start of next season, coming off two neck surgeries, that left him without power to his throwing arm. However, the argument shouldn’t surround the presumption that Manning will not recover, because in fact I believe the more persuasive argument, is not what Manning will or will not be able to do if he returns, but rather what drafting Luck would mean for the Colts, the city of Indianapolis, and the future of the organization.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something that would keep them relevant for another 15-20 years. When Manning came to the Colts in 1998 he ushered in a decade of success, taking a team with virtually no sustained success since the Johnny Unitas era, and transformed them to a NFL record breaking team, with 7 straight seasons with 12 or more wins, all while winning a Super Bowl and starring in Oreo commercials. Manning MADE people Colts fans. People who didn’t live in Indiana or the Midwest, he made them a national, and perhaps international brand. This from a team previously known for it’s managerial incompetence, and it’s bitter exit from Baltimore.

Manning is consistently in the debate as the best quarterback not only active, or alive, but perhaps ever. But, for all that, there is something that Andrew Luck can do that Peyton Manning can’t, and that’s provide upside. At 36 Manning is close to the end of his career, and whether Luck will be better than Manning is relatively irrelevant, simply by virtue of Manning’s age, and Luck’s potential. Of the two there is only one quarterback who could possibly be winning a Super Bowl in 2019.

In fact of the two, I believe there isn’t a quarterback who could win a Super Bowl before 2014. If Manning comes back, the team around him simply doesn’t have enough to win. Other teams have continued to build on success, and Manning and the Colts already had an aversion to winning big games, something that won’t be remedied with an even more feeble coach, weaker supporting cast and a stronger Super Bowl field.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something few teams do, by drafting Luck. They can bid Manning a fond farewell, and unbox a brand new proto-Manning in consecutive seasons. Where as most teams suffer the void of a quarterback of Manning’s caliber for decades, (read: Miami Dolphins) the Colts would immediately reload for another run at relevancy. Just for that chance at another decade of winning, of keeping the Colt’s brand in commercials, making more Colt’s fans, they should draft Luck.

Terry Bradshaw in 1982 underwent offseason elbow surgery, missing the first 14 games of the season, after which he returned, and upon throwing a TD pass felt his elbow pop again, missing the remainder of the season. However, in the 1983 offseason, he was adamant he could continue playing and the Steelers, ever so reverent of their great hero, planned for his return. Only to pass on local hero Dan Marino in the first round, and see Bradshaw never play football again. While it’s obvious in retrospect that Bradshaw could only play for a handful of years even if he could’ve recovered from a second elbow surgery, the decision certainly seemed difficult at the time. Imagine what Dan Marino would have done for the Steelers from 1983-1992, where the Steelers had little success, and suffered it’s first loosing season since 1971.

For the Colts’ it is a much riskier proposition, the Steelers have a legacy, wide ranging and passionate fan base, coupled with stable well run ownership that goes back generations. The Colts are really only 12 years or so removed from being bottom feeders, further more they’ve only been in Indianapolis for 26 years, they just simply don’t have roots that go as deep, and could risk sinking back into mediocrity. They desperately need to do something to stay relevant post-Manning, their entire brand relies on it.

While it is a difficult thing to dump the franchise hero, and perhaps see him suit up for another team, it would be both the best football decision and business discussion the Colts could make. Perhaps trade players like Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney in order to start building parts around Luck, much like how Faulk was sacrificed to make way for Edgerin James.

As hard as all those decisions will be to make, and as much as I think they should do everything in their power to get Luck, which would set them up for another 20 years of being an elite franchise, something that would solidify them amongst the sporting elite, there is still one possibility.

Manning returns completely healthy.

If Manning returns, having faced his sporting mortality, he will certainly be more motivated than ever. In this scenario the Colts have a rejuvenated Manning, for another 3-4 years, coupled with a lesson learned, and a high draft pick to help build for one last all-in push that can transition to the Post-Manning era, all the while hoping he wraps up his career like Elway. Perhaps the lesson is so well learned, that they look at a team like Green Bay, and draft a quarterback in two to three years time to groom as his replacement, in hopes of a smooth transition.

But the Colts have already squeezed so much out of Manning, are they really desperate to get 3 more years of him at the cost of 15-20 years of potential excellence. Is Manning going to get better from here on out? Will he stay as healthy as he has for the last 11 years? Will facing retirement give him a new found drive, and allow him to rise above crippling post-season mistakes and win multiple Super Bowls? Even if he does, in 5 years he’s gone. And the Colts’ are back to facing the same question. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

What makes the decision difficult, is that Luck is touted as a once in a generation prospect, the “next” Peyton Manning, the “next” John Elway. Will the quarterback who is available in two to three years come with the same outstanding character, physical talents and star power/marketing opportunities? There could be, sure, one never knows. But the likelihood is slim. Even slimmer if Manning is successful, and yields a low first round draft pick. Luck isn’t just any number one pick, this isn’t a player having a good combine, he’s a star. To me the odds of Luck being a bust are lower, than the chances of Manning returning to win a Super Bowl. And to me that’s the final arithmetic, now it’s a matter that the Colts must grapple with, can they do the emotionless cost benefit analysis that drives players to drop the borderline cliche, passive-aggressive “it’s a business” when pressed at news conferences. Or will they be looking back in 10 years wondering, what if?

For the Colts, “things-happen-for-a-reason”. And perhaps Manning’s ultimate gift to Indianapolis could be that his body gave out on him the exact year Andrew Luck became available, and not a year when a team has to talk themselves into a Quarterback being worthy of a number one pick. For Manning if he never plays again he goes out on top, without the slow Farvian fade-out, and the Colts take Luck, he pans out and together go on to become part of the international sporting elite. Or like Favre, Manning continues play, but the Colts, having seen their grim future, decide to take a once in a generation star college Quarterback for the second time in 13 years. Freeing Manning to play for a team looking for the final piece of the Super Bowl puzzle where he can then ride off into the sunset, as a hero, hall-of-famer, and possibly erase the doubts about him by winning a Super Bowl outside of Indianapolis.

Ultimately, this could be the best thing that happens to both the Colts and Manning.

So for the Colts it’s a lesson in life that often we as individuals can be too impatient to learn. Sometimes, we have to do the hard thing, sometimes we have to take a step back, and do what’s best, even if it hurts, even if it’s emotional. In our lives it’s hard to see things as clearly in ourselves as we see it in other people. And likewise, even if the Colts can recognize the Steelers mistake in 1983, it doesn’t mean they are immune to making the same mistake themselves. Sometimes in life one has to go backwards, and suffer in the short term in order to set up a brighter future. Hopefully the Colts can recognize this.

Favre to the Colts Actually Makes Sense

If it wasn't about the money, if it was simply about trying to get one more ring, Brett Favre would be wearing a horseshoe on his helmet right now. It's not Favre's fault, it's mostly Bill Polian's fault, but the Colts could have avoided an awful 0-2 start, and could have created the craziest media storm in NFL history, by opting with an old Brett Favre over an old Kerry Collins.

Is it too late? The Colts don't have a young quarterback worth trying out right now. Curtis Painter has shown everyone from Jim Irsay to Rex Ryan that he's not an NFL starting quarterback, and Kerry Collins has been nothing short of awful in his first two starts as the Colts QB. The Colts roster right now has a lot of veterans and young players who can win now, but an 0-3 start will be tough to come back from, even in the AFC South.

But if you bring in Brett Favre now, thing could start to get better. Unless Peyton Manning has a miraculous recovery the Colts are going to lose to the Steelers on Sunday and fall to 0-3, but after that the Colts schedule softens up. @ Tampa Bay, vs Kansas City, @ Cincinnati, @ New Orleans, @ Tennessee, vs Atlanta, vs Jacksonville, takes the Colts into their bye week. With Kerry Collins you're looking at best a 2-5 record in those games, taking the colts to 2-8 and eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving. With Favre, 5-2, 4-3 is more likely, putting the Colts at .500 or close to it around Thanksgiving, and right in the middle of an AFC playoff race that should be wide open at the bottom.

Colts fans seem up to it, and they paid 750 million to build Lucas Oil Stadium and have filled it every game it's been open. Indiana sports fans have too much high school and college basketball, as well as a lot of college football to worry about, so much so that rooting for a losing team in a down year isn't something they're interested in doing. No teams fans are interested in the sort of futility that the Collins/Caldwell Colts have presented.

A lot of people have said Favre would be bad for the Colts and pointed out reasons like PR issues. What PR issues? Last I checked the Colts were one of the most well respected franchises in the NFL, and considered to be the single most Christian franchise in professional sports. If by "PR issues" people mean the hiring of Jim Tressel, then I guess the Raiders, Seahawks, Dolphins, Panthers, and every other franchise has some serious "PR issues" to deal with right now.

The other things I heard were money, better QB options, and locker room issues. As for money, the Colts gave Kerry Collins $4 million this year and still remained $8 million under. Favre can't expect 2010 salary numbers, so I'm pretty sure the Colts could have, and still can afford him. As for better QB options; Carson Palmer would require the trading of a second round pick, and David Garrard is still not better than an old Brett Favre. Finally, is Brett Favre really a bad locker room guy? I know Thomas Jones complained about him, but other than that I never really heard anything bad about him. I know that guys like Jared Allen loved him, and the Packers players always respected him.

Favre is the only hope in Indianapolis right now. It's the only hope for the 2011 Colts, the only hope for Jim Caldwell's job, and a move that could help Bill Polian restore some of the general managing respect that he has rapidly lost since the Colts Super Bowl XLI victory.

That is unless the Colts don't want to win this year, which may very well be a possibility. Drafting at the bottom of a decades worth of drafts have left the Colts with a thin roster of talent, and perhaps Polian understands that the only way the Colts win again in this Manning window is with a team made up of the talented veterans he already has, and top flight young talent. Similar to the Shanahan, Elway, Davis Broncos of the late 1990's.

Pre-Pre-Seaon NFL Power Rankings

We’re really close to the start of the NFL preseason, so now is the right time to make the first power rankings of the year. We’ll call these the pre-preseason power rankings. Before you get upset at where your team ranks remember what power rankings really are: a ranking 1-32 of the teams with the best chances of winning the Super Bowl. That’s the goal. A team like the 2008 Chargers at 8-8 had a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the 11-5 Patriots who were absent from that year’s tournament, thus San Diego would have finished the season ranked ahead of New England.

My format for power rankings has the 32 teams broken up into four categories: the elite; or the teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl, the very good; otherwise known as the teams with an average chance to win the Super Bowl, hanging in there; or the teams who are alive but barely, and the dead; or the teams with no chance of winning the Super Bowl.

For the sake of a fresh start to a new season no team is currently classified as “dead.”

So here they are, Funk Football’s first power rankings of the new NFL season. What lockout?

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers – The defending Super Bowl champions only got healthier, which makes them better and more dangerous. Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s top difference makers, and their schedule is easy enough where even if they don’t win the division they should be in the playoffs. This team is built well and built to win anywhere, and if Rodgers is healthy enough they can beat any team.

02. New Orleans Saints – Several of you out there may be calling me crazy for putting the Saints at number two, but this is a team one year removed from one of the most dominant seasons in NFL history, and this year’s version of the team includes an upgraded running game with the addition of Heisman trophy winning running back Mark Ingram and former San Diego Charger standout Darren Sproles. Last year in a “down year” the Saints went 11-5 before an embarrassing loss on the road to the Seahawks. The 2011 Saints should be healthier, stronger on defense, better on offense, and believe it or not under the radar. They should run away with the division.

03. San Diego Chargers – A lot of people seem to think the Chargers were a losing team last year, but they were a 9-7 team, and probably the best team that didn’t make the playoffs. By the end of the season there was little doubt that they were better than the Chiefs, and New England, Indianapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore were shaking in their cleats over the prospect of facing Philip Rivers and company in the playoffs. The Chargers seem to have fixed their major weakness: special teams, which was really the teams only weakness. The running game is underrated, the defense is great, and if Bob Sanders is healthy, the Chargers will have gotten the most game changing free agent of the off season, because after all, how many Super Bowls have Asomugha and Haynesworth carried their teams to? Sanders is the 2007 defensive player of the year and he’s joining a defense where he won’t be asked to be the only guy who can make a tackle. Watch out.

04. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles made 90% of the headlines in free agency and they certainly got deeper at a ton of positions. The only thing that can stop this team is health, and running into teams like the Packers and Saints who can score on anybody. Michael Vick was a great story in 2010, but it’s important to note that in Vick’s entire career he’s never had solid back to back seasons. In order for the 2011 Eagles to obtain immortality as Super Bowl champions, Vick is not only going to have to have a solid season, he’ll probably have to have the best season of his life considering at some point he’ll like have to face opposing offenses lead by Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Peyton, Rivers, and Brady, any of which can score efficiently and mistake free.

05. New England Patriots – If the Patriots created 90% of the free agency headlines, the Patriots scooped up 9%, but their moves were far riskier. The acquisitions of Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, and Shaun Ellis would all fall under the category of low risk, high reward. The problem is, the Pats aren’t handling it as low risk, instead moving their defense to a 4-3 to better accommodate for Haynesworth, while slotting Ochocinco as their #1 receiver in Brady’s offense. If you look at these power rankings, no other team in the top six would slot Ochocinco as the number one receiver. The move to 4-3 is far riskier than the Ochocinco move, not just because all five of Belichick’s Super Bowl victories have been with a 3-4, but because Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees have obscene career numbers against the 4-3, and relatively poor numbers against the 3-4. Still, I have to give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise. A tough division and a tough inter-conference schedule is this team’s biggest concern. A first round bye is paramount to a Super Bowl run for this team.

06. Indianapolis Colts – If the Colts plan to go back to the Super Bowl, this might be their last best chance, at least with this system. I’m not worried about Peyton’s neck, the Colts offense will be better than they were last year with an upgraded offensive line, and a healthy Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. What makes the Colts more dangerous than before are the defensive acquisitions they’ve made: the addition of injury plagued Tommie Harris, who by all accounts is now healthy, rivals that of the Bob Sanders acquisition as the best unsung signing of the offseason. You have to believe that if the Jets, Patriots, or Eagles made those signings it would be the second coming of Warren Sapp for all of those franchises. That’s east coast media bias, which has never stopped the Colts from having a great shot at a ring come January. This year should be no different. Like the Chargers and the Saints they’re flying under the radar right now, and that’s dangerous.

07. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have followed their other two Super Bowl berths in the Roethlisberger era with seasons in which they don’t make the playoffs. A part of me believes that will be the case again for the Steelers, but I don’t believe enough in the Ravens or Browns to see that as plausible just yet. I think a Super Bowl loss will motivate this team, and a healthy Troy Polamalu is as valuable as any other team’s best player. The rings speak for themselves in Pittsburgh, and as long as Roethlisberger and Polamalu are there (and healthy), this is the team to beat in the AFC North.

08. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens have been good enough to get out of the first round the past three years, but not good enough to get to a Super Bowl. The Ravens best shot at getting to one is going to be by getting a first round bye, and if ever that was possible this is the year. The Ravens need to stay healthy on defense, but if Joe Flacco can take that next step to borderline Pro Bowl quarterback, this Ravens team can win the division, and potentially get that first round bye. If they do, then watch out.

09. New York Jets – The New York Jets Super Bowl hopes begin and end with Mark Sanchez. In order for the Jets to get to that next level, Sanchez needs to get to that next level. The Jets have gotten to the conference title game two years in a row the hard way; on the road as a wild card team with a below average playoff quarterback. If they had an average to above average playoff quarterback the Jets would have likely gone to the Super Bowl one of those years. The Jets roster is strong enough where Sanchez isn’t going to be asked to be Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, instead he’s going to be asked to be Brad Johnson circa 2002. Before you laugh at that here are Brad Johnson’s 2002 numbers: 62.3 completion percentage, 234.5 passing yards/game, 11:3 TD:INT ratio, 92.9 QBR. The only thing to laugh at may be expecting Sanchez to obtain those sort of numbers, nevertheless it’s what he’s going to need to do if the Jets want to get past Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, and Roethlisberger, most importantly in the regular season where the Jets have struggled the past two seasons.

10. Atlanta Falcons – Call me crazy for putting them down at number ten, but I just see this as a step back year for Atlanta. A lot went right for the Falcons in 2010, including being in the same division as a hung-over Saints, but in the playoffs the Falcons proved they didn’t belong on the field with the eventual Super Bowl champions. This year it may be the Falcons who have the hangover. I think this team is good enough to get to the playoffs, but their schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk, either. Julio Jones is a great add, but rarely do rookie wide receivers make the impact that puts a team over the top.

11. Dallas Cowboys – If the Saints, Chargers, and Colts are under the radar, then the Cowboys are beneath under the radar. This is a team that has flirted with an NFC title for awhile now, but fell short due to a poor coaching staff and a mismanaged roster. A healthy Tony Romo, a new regime, and low expectations may be the gift that the Cowboys needed this whole team, at least for the first few weeks of the season and training camp. Expect Dallas to be back in the playoffs, and if the roster lives up to its potential, there’s a great chance they could be representing the NFC in Indianapolis.

The Very Good

12. Minnesota Vikings – Brett Favre’s miserable play and a bad offensive line in 2010 made us forget how good the 2009 Vikings really were. The roster isn’t that far gone and 2011 Donovan McNabb should be an upgrade over 2010 Brett Favre. This is a team that can compete for a playoff spot, and if things unfold the right way compete for a division title. Adrian Peterson should have a good year behind a revamped offensive line, and playing in a dome (ten times) should help revitalize Donovan McNabb’s career the way it helped Favre once upon a time. They may not win the Super Bowl, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re better than the Eagles.

13. New York Giants – In 2007 Michael Strahan held out, Tiki Barber said sayonara, Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin were severely questioned, and the Giants did nothing but go on to win the Super Bowl. This year, Eli and Coughlin are again on the hot seat, Osi Umenyiora is holding out, and Tiki Barber is trying to find a team to attempt a comeback with. With all of the NFC talk focused outside of the Meadowlands, don’t be surprised if this is the year the Giants make another great run. Eli Manning is, believe it or not an underrated quarterback, and Coughlin coached teams are often winners. If they can sneak into the playoffs they’ll be dangerous, I’m not sure if they can win a division title, though. Injuries to start the season will hurt them.

14. Houston Texans – The Texans have felt like an on-the-verge team since 2004, but they have made some above average moves this offseason, and the Colts aren’t as dominant in that division as they once were. The key to the Texans season will be winning week one versus Indianapolis and using that momentum to help win a division title, the way the Titans did in 2008. If the Texans can get to the playoffs, then they’ll have that 2008 Cardinals danger to them that could help them defeat the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, or Jets.

15. Chicago Bears – I’m going to go out and say it; I think this will be a down year for Chicago. The defense will be solid if healthy, Roy Williams could be a good addition at WR, and Jay Cutler may finally take that next step, but in reality they’re going to need all of those things to occur in order to get back to where they were. The window is closing in Chicago though, they have a veteran defense, so if they don’t get back to the playoffs this year, that may be it for this incarnation of the Bears.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars made a lot of moves this offseason, most of which I thought were bad. If David Garrard is injured to start the season then this team is dead on arrival, but if not they have a shot to win the AFC South, which is perhaps the most wide open division in the AFC. But in reality, number sixteen of thirty two is about where Jaguars are, and always seem to be. Until Jack Del Rio moves on I can’t see this team being consistent enough to get through Peyton or the Texans.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I have the Bucs at seventeen not because I think they’re untalented, but because I hate the division that they’re stuck in. The Bucs are a good young team with a lot of talent, but when they play four of their games against the Falcons and Saints it will always be hard to win their division. On top of that games vs Indianapolis, Dallas, and Houston, and at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville could make this a long year for the Bucs.

18. St. Louis Rams – The Rams should win their division. The defense is strong and will likely improve a good amount this year. This teams entire Super Bowl hopes hinge on the arm of Sam Bradford, who will be asked to make progress like fellow former number one overall pick Peyton Manning made in 1999, his second pro season. The problem is, since Peyton Manning no second year quarterback who started their first year has made that sort of progress so it’s unrealistic, on top of that, 1999 Peyton Manning didn’t get to the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, a division title in 2011 will go a long way towards eventually helping Bradford get what Manning eventually got as well, a Super Bowl ring. I like Bradford, I could see him being a Pro Bowler this year, and I can see the Rams having a strong season, I just don’t think I can see them having a Super season.

19. Detroit Lions – I’m going to say it: the Lions can win the Super Bowl. What’s the catch? They play in the NFC North. I think the Lions will be improved this year, and if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, this could be a winning team and even a playoff team. I just don’t know if they can go deep into the playoffs just yet. The defense is going to be great one day, and the offense has potential to be even better. 2011 should be the year where the Lions finally re-enter the NFL as a legitimate team. If they’re healthy, that will definitely happen.

Hanging In There

20. San Francisco 49ers – In a way it’s a good thing that the 49ers plan to find out what they have in Alex Smith once and for all. Unfortunately for the 49ers I think that they’re going to find out Alex Smith isn’t a winning quarterback at this level. If the Rams don’t move forward, the 49ers could pass them and potentially win this division on the strength of the players around Smith. I could see the 49ers getting back to the playoffs this year, but I can’t see them going any further than a first round beat down by Philadelphia, New York, or Dallas.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – They were a playoff team last year and the most embarrassed playoff team at that. The best thing that could happen for this relatively young team would be to have a down year and find a real future quarterback. Cassell is good to start another year after this season, but I can’t see the Chiefs ever competing for a ring with Cassell. With Denver and Oakland ready to go on the rise, now would be the right time for the Chiefs to fail, before mediocrity turns them into this decades Buffalo Bills.

22. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals cashed in their future for Kevin Kolb, a quarterback who has shown some signs of excellence these past few years, as well as some signs of futility. We’ll see what they have in Kolb, but the bigger problems in Arizona lie elsewhere. The offensive line has gotten worse, the defense has gotten worse, and I’m not sure if Kevin Kolb can do what Kurt Warner was able to do. I don’t see Arizona getting back to the playoffs this year, I honestly thing St. Louis are better overall, but if the Kolb move was a good one, then the Cardinals can become a force in the NFC again very soon.

23. Cleveland Browns – I’ll come out and say it: I like Colt McCoy as a pro quarterback. I think he has the intangibles, and enough of the skill set to succeed along the lines of a Flacco or Roethliberger, in that the numbers won’t be gaudy but the wins will be in abundance. The problem is, it will be hard for McCoy to pan out on an offense with so few weapons. The Jets got Sanchez every weapon he could ever ask for. The Broncos and Rams surrounded Tebow and Bradford with solid offensive weapons as yet. The Browns continue to rebuild, and McCoy may become the victim of this rebuilding process. Nevertheless, this is a team with a shot at the wild card in a slim AFC wild card picture. In order for that to happen, McCoy may need to play out of his mind, something I don’t think he’s ready to do.

24. Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll is becoming a mad scientist as a head coach. I can’t see this year going as well as last year. Their quarterback situation should be renamed “backup city” and their defense is average at best. I can see them battling around .500, but I honestly believe 6-10 is their peak.

25. Washington Redskins – Tough division for a team to try to rebuild in, especially with a coach like Mike Shanahan. If this season goes well for Shanahan then we’ll have to concede to his genius. If this season goes poorly for Shanahan then we’ll have to say that Al Davis was actually right and the only reason Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings is because of Terrell Davis and John Elway. The somewhere in between would be that Shanahan got too far inside his own head to the point where he started to believe in his ego, which told him that he could win a tough division with Rex Grossman or John Beck at quarterback, with no offensive game-breaker, and an improving but not great defense.

26. Miami Dolphins – They have the roster to become the most exciting team in the AFC East, the issue is they don’t have the quarterback. Instead of going after Orton they should go after Tebow. They won’t win much in the AFC East this year, but it’ll be fun to watch. Tebow in Florida would turn the NFL on its head, and with Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall, he could actually meet his potential as a major offensive weapon. It won’t happen because of the fan backlash that will occur in Denver, who are absolutely smitten with Tebow, but this what-if get’s the point across. The Dolphins biggest issue is quarterback, and they have done very little to address this issue. If Chad Henne develops this year, then I can see them making a push for the playoffs and hurting the Patriots and Jets first round bye hopes.

27. Oakland Raiders – It was going so well! Last year the Raiders had a shot at the playoffs. The Chargers were bewildered and the Broncos were in flux. This year the Chargers will be back and the Raiders will go back to third in the division. They had the right idea going for a veteran quarterback with Jason Campbell, but I think it’s time they find that franchise quarterback. If you’re going to beat Rivers consistently, you’ll need that heavyweight to throw up against him. It’ll be a step back year in Oakland.

28. Tennessee Titans – The Titans know that they’re rebuilding. Matt Hasselbeck is the right type of guy to tutor Jake Locker, and he’s openly willing to do it. This team’s best chance at the playoffs is Peyton Manning injury. This team’s best chance at a Super Bowl is a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers collective injury. In all seriousness, I’d rest Locker all year and let him watch.

29. Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton will start week one, but we know that right now this franchise is relevant for one reason only, they currently own the rights to the NFL’s greatest enigma: Timothy Tebow. The Broncos have little to no hope this year, and all you Tebow-maniacs can circle Sunday, October 23 on your calendars as the day the Tebow era truly begins, in Florida when the 1-4 Broncos take on the 1-4 Dolphins. If the Broncos win that one expect to hear about whether or not Tebow is the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Expect them to maybe win four to five games after that.

30. Carolina Panthers – I could see this defense being really good. I hope they give Jimmy Clausen a chance to sort of impress the league so that the Panthers can trade him for a mid to late round pick, probably to Washington or Seattle where they collect those sort of players. Cam Newton will probably do alright as a rookie, I can’t see him doing great like Roethlisberger or Young, and the Panthers won’t be as patient with him as the Broncos were with Tebow, in part because the Panthers don’t need a QB controversy between Clausen and Newton, two young guys. A brutal division will force this team to pick in the top five again next year, and I expect them to use it to find Cam some protection.

31. Buffalo Bills – This is the team that Andrew Luck should go to. It would be great, and he could singlehandedly help keep the Bills in Buffalo long term. C’mon Bills, do us a favor, don’t go on another stupid November-December run that moves you from number one pick to number eight pick. Not this year. In Andrew Luck you would have the best quarterback in the AFC East by 2013, and if you prefer Fitzpatrick and his Harvard degree please note one thing: Andrew Luck will have a Stanford degree. Me personally, I trust a Stanford man more than a Harvard man at anything.

32. Cincinnati Bengals – This team will probably end up at 32 at the end of the year. The problem is this is the one franchise at the bottom that doesn’t want to be in that position because they just wasted an early second round pick on an average quarterback named Andy Dalton. If Dalton shows hope this year, they’ll probably try to trade that number one pick to someone who needs it. If not, then Andrew Luck, like Carson Palmer, will be a Pac 10 quarterback headed to Cincinnati where he’ll likely never meet his potential.

Peyton vs the 4-3 Defense

More than any player of the past decade, Peyton Manning's strengths and weaknesses have been heavily documented. Though his struggles with the 3-4 defense early in his career have been well documented, Manning mastered the 4-3 defense very early in his career.

This Sunday, Manning well get to square off against the New Orleans Saints and their 4-3 defense. The 4-3 is build around a blitzing front line and a strong secondary that induces turnovers. Part of the reason Manning has been so successful against the 4-3 in the past five seasons is because Manning responds well to the blitz, and doesn't really cause too many turnovers.

In the past five seasons (since 2005), the Colts have only lost to a 4-3 defense only 6 times when playing all of their starters. Of those six losses only one was too a non-divisional opponent, the 2008 Chicago Bears on opening day. If you recall, the Colts started 2008 very slow because Peyton Manning missed all out training camp with a knee infection that he was still recovering from early in 2009.

Much of Manning's success against the 4-3 stems from the fact that the Colts have run the 4-3 for Manning's entire career, so he has seen it every day. Since 2005, the Colts have run one of the most effective 4-3's in the NFL. Even when the Colts defense was bad, Manning still had Tony Dungy as his head coach, one of the revolutionaries of the 4-3 Cover 2 defense. To put it plainly, Manning understands the 4-3 defense better than any quarterback in the NFL. Then again, Manning probably understands every defensive formation and scheme better than every other quarterback in the NFL.

So when the Colts line up on offense tomorrow, look for Manning to feel the Saints out early, before going ballistic on their 4-3 scheme tomorrow. The only difference between this Saints team and the other 4-3's that Manning has played in the past is the fact that the Saints offense is extremely potent. Much like when Manning faces the Houston Texans, he won't have much time to adjust to the Saints defense before he'll find himself in an early hole.

NFL Super Bowl Pick

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts

If you haven't already, expect to hear thousands of predictions and picks for this weekends game. Some predictions will be good, others will be awful, and some will be confusing. If you have followed this blog all season you understand that I put a lot of thought into each of my picks and I try to play it as even as I possibly can.

For that very reason I spent the bulk of the 2010 season considering the New Orleans Saints the best team in the NFL. This assessment was made absolutely clear after the post-Thanksgiving edition of Monday Night Football where the Saints ravaged a New England Patriots team that was healthy and holding on to Super Bowl aspirations. After that game the Saints began to look beatable, almost falling to the Redskins and Falcons before finally losing at home to the Cowboys and on the road to the Bucs. The Saints would also lose their final game of the regular season to the Panthers, but we can't count that game given the Saints starters were mostly on the bench. With those three loses aside, the Saints were able to dominate the NFC for most of the 2010 season, and in turn became America's darlings.

The Colts of 2009 entered the season disrespected by the media and continue to be just that. Entering the season questions surrounded the franchise and whether or not they could win without retired Head Coach Tony Dungy and wide receiver Marvin Harrison. After getting manhandled by the Dolphins on Monday Night but still coming up with the win the Colts were written off as a "second class" team in the AFC behind the Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots. When the Colts beat the Patriots on Sunday Night football excuses were made. When the Colts decided to give up on their perfect season and choose health over 16-0 they were ridiculed by their fans, and everyone else's fans alike, even after Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker got injured to the point where it cost their teams playoff longevity. Entering the divisional playoffs many suspected the Colts would again be "one and done," entering the AFC title game the media and the Jets fans alike spent an entire week bashing the Colts. But all the 2009 Colts have done is win every game that they have tried to; Which is why they're in the Super Bowl.

One group of people have backed the Colts for pretty much all of the 2009: the bookies of the United States of America. Outside of their week three showdown with the Cardinals, those who set the lines for gambling on the NFL have favored the Colts in every game they have played in this year, and there's a reason for that. Bookies aren't in the business of losing money. It sounds stupid, but these people know what they're getting into when they move a line from -3.5 to -6.

I know that pointing to the bookmakers is dumb, but a huge jump like that deserved at least a little attention.

If I really want to point out a dumb, inconsequential statistic for you, it would be the curse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it's relevance in this game. Since 1976, their first year a franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never beaten the eventual Super Bowl champion. As I said earlier in this post, the 2009 Buc's have defeated the 2009 New Orleans Saints. If the Saints win this game they will become the first team to ever lose to the Buccaneers and win the Super Bowl in the same season. Like the 2009 Saints, the 2001 Rams got to the Super Bowl this decade in a season where they lost to the Bucs, and we all know what happened in that game.

Okay, enough of the issues that have nothing to do with this game.

This game is going to be a real treat because it's the first time that this generation of players can claim an undisputed champion. This decade I have had little to no problem with the champion crowned every year, but there has always been the proclamation "well if this team had played such and such." You can't make that argument this year. The Colts are 16-0 in games they have tried to win, the Saints are 15-2 in games that they have tried to win. Combined these two teams started 2009 27-0. Both were one seeds in their conferences and for the first time since 1993 the two one seeds are squaring off in the Super Bowl. In other words; We're finally getting a titanic bout for the Super Bowl.

The Saints enter this game with the more "high powered" offense. Like the 2001 Rams or the Colts teams of the early part of the decade, the Saints entire game plan runs through their offense. Their defense isn't bad, but it relies on turnovers and the fact that opposing teams are often playing from behind. This strategy makes for a strong pass rush and turnover driven secondary.

The Saints biggest strength is also their biggest weakness entering this game; All Pro Quarterback Drew Brees. Brees is without a doubt one of the best QB's in the NFL, but he also hasn't exactly played his best football in big games. In the NFC Championship game, both in 2006 and 2009 Brees has looked shaky. Brees' size, though not always an issue, can hurt the quarterback going against a defense that has done well taking away the big passing play in 2009. Overall the Saints will need to rely on Brees this Sunday to bring the city of New Orleans it's first championship, and that's a lot of pressure.

The Colts are certainly a more balanced team than the Saints, though the statistics don't always prove it. Joseph Addai hasn't had a lights out season in 2009, but he has quietly been one of the most productive backs in the league, at times willing the Colts offense to success. I wholeheartedly believe that Addai will have a positive impact on this game for Indianapolis, and he will be a key to victory.

On defense the Colts just need to do what they do. The Saints can score, and they probably will score on Indianapolis, the Colts just need to make sure that they don't lose their composure. Since 2005 this Colts defense has gone into every game like a fighter ready to take punches. This team has done amazingly adjusting throughout games and forcing turnovers; like in the 2006 and 2009 AFC Championship games. It will be very important for this Colts team to keep their composure after 20 yard receptions or back to back 6 yard runs.

The final key to the Colts winning their second Super Bowl since 2006 is their four time MVP quarterback Peyton Manning. In Super Bowl XLI Manning was the games MVP, leading his team to victory over a very good Bears defense. Since then, Manning has been called one of the more undeserving Super Bowl MVP's of the decade, and you know that bothers the inner historian in Manning. Manning can't let this control him though, and I'm sure he won't. At the end of the day Manning knows the two rings is more important than great stats in the Super Bowl. In Kurt Warner's last two Super Bowl appearances he had amazing stats but no hardware. Manning would much rather be on the Ben Roethlisberger side of the fence with two average performance and two rings.

There has been a lot of talk about this game coming down to who has the ball last. Maybe it will, though I doubt it. I have a feeling that this game will be close early, but come celebration time, you'll be seeing a lot more Blue and White in Miami than you will Gold and Black.

I'm taking the Colts to win the Super Bowl