Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Why the Colts Should Hope for Luck: How the Colts are Lucky to Have a Bright Future.

***Written by guest columnist Sebastian Pardo***

Sports when at their most beautiful, illustrate complex and profound life lessons, that can often much more cleanly, and clearly express the complicated bitter-sweet nature of life. While this might be an over-simplification, the 2011 season for the Indianapolis Colts could be a lesson in patience, and illustrate the often cop-out philosophy of “things happen for a reason”.

The Manning-less Colts are finally facing the question they’ve been too scared to consider. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

The result is a team, spoiled by Manning, that has been neglected, and left to rot. For years Manning through shear obsessive perseverance has spackled in the void of both leadership, and perhaps talent to keep the Colts relevant in the regular season, and more importantly to the Owner/CEO Jim Irsay, as a brand.

The Colts this year are living “A Christmas Carol” like season. This year they are getting a glimpse of the Ghost of Colts’ Future, and like Scrooge come 2012, they can shudder and shake off the frightening spectre, and apply the lessons learned to save their franchise.

And that’s exactly why they should select Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck.

Manning, will be age 36 at the start of next season, coming off two neck surgeries, that left him without power to his throwing arm. However, the argument shouldn’t surround the presumption that Manning will not recover, because in fact I believe the more persuasive argument, is not what Manning will or will not be able to do if he returns, but rather what drafting Luck would mean for the Colts, the city of Indianapolis, and the future of the organization.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something that would keep them relevant for another 15-20 years. When Manning came to the Colts in 1998 he ushered in a decade of success, taking a team with virtually no sustained success since the Johnny Unitas era, and transformed them to a NFL record breaking team, with 7 straight seasons with 12 or more wins, all while winning a Super Bowl and starring in Oreo commercials. Manning MADE people Colts fans. People who didn’t live in Indiana or the Midwest, he made them a national, and perhaps international brand. This from a team previously known for it’s managerial incompetence, and it’s bitter exit from Baltimore.

Manning is consistently in the debate as the best quarterback not only active, or alive, but perhaps ever. But, for all that, there is something that Andrew Luck can do that Peyton Manning can’t, and that’s provide upside. At 36 Manning is close to the end of his career, and whether Luck will be better than Manning is relatively irrelevant, simply by virtue of Manning’s age, and Luck’s potential. Of the two there is only one quarterback who could possibly be winning a Super Bowl in 2019.

In fact of the two, I believe there isn’t a quarterback who could win a Super Bowl before 2014. If Manning comes back, the team around him simply doesn’t have enough to win. Other teams have continued to build on success, and Manning and the Colts already had an aversion to winning big games, something that won’t be remedied with an even more feeble coach, weaker supporting cast and a stronger Super Bowl field.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something few teams do, by drafting Luck. They can bid Manning a fond farewell, and unbox a brand new proto-Manning in consecutive seasons. Where as most teams suffer the void of a quarterback of Manning’s caliber for decades, (read: Miami Dolphins) the Colts would immediately reload for another run at relevancy. Just for that chance at another decade of winning, of keeping the Colt’s brand in commercials, making more Colt’s fans, they should draft Luck.

Terry Bradshaw in 1982 underwent offseason elbow surgery, missing the first 14 games of the season, after which he returned, and upon throwing a TD pass felt his elbow pop again, missing the remainder of the season. However, in the 1983 offseason, he was adamant he could continue playing and the Steelers, ever so reverent of their great hero, planned for his return. Only to pass on local hero Dan Marino in the first round, and see Bradshaw never play football again. While it’s obvious in retrospect that Bradshaw could only play for a handful of years even if he could’ve recovered from a second elbow surgery, the decision certainly seemed difficult at the time. Imagine what Dan Marino would have done for the Steelers from 1983-1992, where the Steelers had little success, and suffered it’s first loosing season since 1971.

For the Colts’ it is a much riskier proposition, the Steelers have a legacy, wide ranging and passionate fan base, coupled with stable well run ownership that goes back generations. The Colts are really only 12 years or so removed from being bottom feeders, further more they’ve only been in Indianapolis for 26 years, they just simply don’t have roots that go as deep, and could risk sinking back into mediocrity. They desperately need to do something to stay relevant post-Manning, their entire brand relies on it.

While it is a difficult thing to dump the franchise hero, and perhaps see him suit up for another team, it would be both the best football decision and business discussion the Colts could make. Perhaps trade players like Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney in order to start building parts around Luck, much like how Faulk was sacrificed to make way for Edgerin James.

As hard as all those decisions will be to make, and as much as I think they should do everything in their power to get Luck, which would set them up for another 20 years of being an elite franchise, something that would solidify them amongst the sporting elite, there is still one possibility.

Manning returns completely healthy.

If Manning returns, having faced his sporting mortality, he will certainly be more motivated than ever. In this scenario the Colts have a rejuvenated Manning, for another 3-4 years, coupled with a lesson learned, and a high draft pick to help build for one last all-in push that can transition to the Post-Manning era, all the while hoping he wraps up his career like Elway. Perhaps the lesson is so well learned, that they look at a team like Green Bay, and draft a quarterback in two to three years time to groom as his replacement, in hopes of a smooth transition.

But the Colts have already squeezed so much out of Manning, are they really desperate to get 3 more years of him at the cost of 15-20 years of potential excellence. Is Manning going to get better from here on out? Will he stay as healthy as he has for the last 11 years? Will facing retirement give him a new found drive, and allow him to rise above crippling post-season mistakes and win multiple Super Bowls? Even if he does, in 5 years he’s gone. And the Colts’ are back to facing the same question. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

What makes the decision difficult, is that Luck is touted as a once in a generation prospect, the “next” Peyton Manning, the “next” John Elway. Will the quarterback who is available in two to three years come with the same outstanding character, physical talents and star power/marketing opportunities? There could be, sure, one never knows. But the likelihood is slim. Even slimmer if Manning is successful, and yields a low first round draft pick. Luck isn’t just any number one pick, this isn’t a player having a good combine, he’s a star. To me the odds of Luck being a bust are lower, than the chances of Manning returning to win a Super Bowl. And to me that’s the final arithmetic, now it’s a matter that the Colts must grapple with, can they do the emotionless cost benefit analysis that drives players to drop the borderline cliche, passive-aggressive “it’s a business” when pressed at news conferences. Or will they be looking back in 10 years wondering, what if?

For the Colts, “things-happen-for-a-reason”. And perhaps Manning’s ultimate gift to Indianapolis could be that his body gave out on him the exact year Andrew Luck became available, and not a year when a team has to talk themselves into a Quarterback being worthy of a number one pick. For Manning if he never plays again he goes out on top, without the slow Farvian fade-out, and the Colts take Luck, he pans out and together go on to become part of the international sporting elite. Or like Favre, Manning continues play, but the Colts, having seen their grim future, decide to take a once in a generation star college Quarterback for the second time in 13 years. Freeing Manning to play for a team looking for the final piece of the Super Bowl puzzle where he can then ride off into the sunset, as a hero, hall-of-famer, and possibly erase the doubts about him by winning a Super Bowl outside of Indianapolis.

Ultimately, this could be the best thing that happens to both the Colts and Manning.

So for the Colts it’s a lesson in life that often we as individuals can be too impatient to learn. Sometimes, we have to do the hard thing, sometimes we have to take a step back, and do what’s best, even if it hurts, even if it’s emotional. In our lives it’s hard to see things as clearly in ourselves as we see it in other people. And likewise, even if the Colts can recognize the Steelers mistake in 1983, it doesn’t mean they are immune to making the same mistake themselves. Sometimes in life one has to go backwards, and suffer in the short term in order to set up a brighter future. Hopefully the Colts can recognize this.