Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Why the Colts Should Hope for Luck: How the Colts are Lucky to Have a Bright Future.

***Written by guest columnist Sebastian Pardo***

Sports when at their most beautiful, illustrate complex and profound life lessons, that can often much more cleanly, and clearly express the complicated bitter-sweet nature of life. While this might be an over-simplification, the 2011 season for the Indianapolis Colts could be a lesson in patience, and illustrate the often cop-out philosophy of “things happen for a reason”.

The Manning-less Colts are finally facing the question they’ve been too scared to consider. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

The result is a team, spoiled by Manning, that has been neglected, and left to rot. For years Manning through shear obsessive perseverance has spackled in the void of both leadership, and perhaps talent to keep the Colts relevant in the regular season, and more importantly to the Owner/CEO Jim Irsay, as a brand.

The Colts this year are living “A Christmas Carol” like season. This year they are getting a glimpse of the Ghost of Colts’ Future, and like Scrooge come 2012, they can shudder and shake off the frightening spectre, and apply the lessons learned to save their franchise.

And that’s exactly why they should select Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck.

Manning, will be age 36 at the start of next season, coming off two neck surgeries, that left him without power to his throwing arm. However, the argument shouldn’t surround the presumption that Manning will not recover, because in fact I believe the more persuasive argument, is not what Manning will or will not be able to do if he returns, but rather what drafting Luck would mean for the Colts, the city of Indianapolis, and the future of the organization.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something that would keep them relevant for another 15-20 years. When Manning came to the Colts in 1998 he ushered in a decade of success, taking a team with virtually no sustained success since the Johnny Unitas era, and transformed them to a NFL record breaking team, with 7 straight seasons with 12 or more wins, all while winning a Super Bowl and starring in Oreo commercials. Manning MADE people Colts fans. People who didn’t live in Indiana or the Midwest, he made them a national, and perhaps international brand. This from a team previously known for it’s managerial incompetence, and it’s bitter exit from Baltimore.

Manning is consistently in the debate as the best quarterback not only active, or alive, but perhaps ever. But, for all that, there is something that Andrew Luck can do that Peyton Manning can’t, and that’s provide upside. At 36 Manning is close to the end of his career, and whether Luck will be better than Manning is relatively irrelevant, simply by virtue of Manning’s age, and Luck’s potential. Of the two there is only one quarterback who could possibly be winning a Super Bowl in 2019.

In fact of the two, I believe there isn’t a quarterback who could win a Super Bowl before 2014. If Manning comes back, the team around him simply doesn’t have enough to win. Other teams have continued to build on success, and Manning and the Colts already had an aversion to winning big games, something that won’t be remedied with an even more feeble coach, weaker supporting cast and a stronger Super Bowl field.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something few teams do, by drafting Luck. They can bid Manning a fond farewell, and unbox a brand new proto-Manning in consecutive seasons. Where as most teams suffer the void of a quarterback of Manning’s caliber for decades, (read: Miami Dolphins) the Colts would immediately reload for another run at relevancy. Just for that chance at another decade of winning, of keeping the Colt’s brand in commercials, making more Colt’s fans, they should draft Luck.

Terry Bradshaw in 1982 underwent offseason elbow surgery, missing the first 14 games of the season, after which he returned, and upon throwing a TD pass felt his elbow pop again, missing the remainder of the season. However, in the 1983 offseason, he was adamant he could continue playing and the Steelers, ever so reverent of their great hero, planned for his return. Only to pass on local hero Dan Marino in the first round, and see Bradshaw never play football again. While it’s obvious in retrospect that Bradshaw could only play for a handful of years even if he could’ve recovered from a second elbow surgery, the decision certainly seemed difficult at the time. Imagine what Dan Marino would have done for the Steelers from 1983-1992, where the Steelers had little success, and suffered it’s first loosing season since 1971.

For the Colts’ it is a much riskier proposition, the Steelers have a legacy, wide ranging and passionate fan base, coupled with stable well run ownership that goes back generations. The Colts are really only 12 years or so removed from being bottom feeders, further more they’ve only been in Indianapolis for 26 years, they just simply don’t have roots that go as deep, and could risk sinking back into mediocrity. They desperately need to do something to stay relevant post-Manning, their entire brand relies on it.

While it is a difficult thing to dump the franchise hero, and perhaps see him suit up for another team, it would be both the best football decision and business discussion the Colts could make. Perhaps trade players like Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney in order to start building parts around Luck, much like how Faulk was sacrificed to make way for Edgerin James.

As hard as all those decisions will be to make, and as much as I think they should do everything in their power to get Luck, which would set them up for another 20 years of being an elite franchise, something that would solidify them amongst the sporting elite, there is still one possibility.

Manning returns completely healthy.

If Manning returns, having faced his sporting mortality, he will certainly be more motivated than ever. In this scenario the Colts have a rejuvenated Manning, for another 3-4 years, coupled with a lesson learned, and a high draft pick to help build for one last all-in push that can transition to the Post-Manning era, all the while hoping he wraps up his career like Elway. Perhaps the lesson is so well learned, that they look at a team like Green Bay, and draft a quarterback in two to three years time to groom as his replacement, in hopes of a smooth transition.

But the Colts have already squeezed so much out of Manning, are they really desperate to get 3 more years of him at the cost of 15-20 years of potential excellence. Is Manning going to get better from here on out? Will he stay as healthy as he has for the last 11 years? Will facing retirement give him a new found drive, and allow him to rise above crippling post-season mistakes and win multiple Super Bowls? Even if he does, in 5 years he’s gone. And the Colts’ are back to facing the same question. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

What makes the decision difficult, is that Luck is touted as a once in a generation prospect, the “next” Peyton Manning, the “next” John Elway. Will the quarterback who is available in two to three years come with the same outstanding character, physical talents and star power/marketing opportunities? There could be, sure, one never knows. But the likelihood is slim. Even slimmer if Manning is successful, and yields a low first round draft pick. Luck isn’t just any number one pick, this isn’t a player having a good combine, he’s a star. To me the odds of Luck being a bust are lower, than the chances of Manning returning to win a Super Bowl. And to me that’s the final arithmetic, now it’s a matter that the Colts must grapple with, can they do the emotionless cost benefit analysis that drives players to drop the borderline cliche, passive-aggressive “it’s a business” when pressed at news conferences. Or will they be looking back in 10 years wondering, what if?

For the Colts, “things-happen-for-a-reason”. And perhaps Manning’s ultimate gift to Indianapolis could be that his body gave out on him the exact year Andrew Luck became available, and not a year when a team has to talk themselves into a Quarterback being worthy of a number one pick. For Manning if he never plays again he goes out on top, without the slow Farvian fade-out, and the Colts take Luck, he pans out and together go on to become part of the international sporting elite. Or like Favre, Manning continues play, but the Colts, having seen their grim future, decide to take a once in a generation star college Quarterback for the second time in 13 years. Freeing Manning to play for a team looking for the final piece of the Super Bowl puzzle where he can then ride off into the sunset, as a hero, hall-of-famer, and possibly erase the doubts about him by winning a Super Bowl outside of Indianapolis.

Ultimately, this could be the best thing that happens to both the Colts and Manning.

So for the Colts it’s a lesson in life that often we as individuals can be too impatient to learn. Sometimes, we have to do the hard thing, sometimes we have to take a step back, and do what’s best, even if it hurts, even if it’s emotional. In our lives it’s hard to see things as clearly in ourselves as we see it in other people. And likewise, even if the Colts can recognize the Steelers mistake in 1983, it doesn’t mean they are immune to making the same mistake themselves. Sometimes in life one has to go backwards, and suffer in the short term in order to set up a brighter future. Hopefully the Colts can recognize this.

Favre to the Colts Actually Makes Sense

If it wasn't about the money, if it was simply about trying to get one more ring, Brett Favre would be wearing a horseshoe on his helmet right now. It's not Favre's fault, it's mostly Bill Polian's fault, but the Colts could have avoided an awful 0-2 start, and could have created the craziest media storm in NFL history, by opting with an old Brett Favre over an old Kerry Collins.

Is it too late? The Colts don't have a young quarterback worth trying out right now. Curtis Painter has shown everyone from Jim Irsay to Rex Ryan that he's not an NFL starting quarterback, and Kerry Collins has been nothing short of awful in his first two starts as the Colts QB. The Colts roster right now has a lot of veterans and young players who can win now, but an 0-3 start will be tough to come back from, even in the AFC South.

But if you bring in Brett Favre now, thing could start to get better. Unless Peyton Manning has a miraculous recovery the Colts are going to lose to the Steelers on Sunday and fall to 0-3, but after that the Colts schedule softens up. @ Tampa Bay, vs Kansas City, @ Cincinnati, @ New Orleans, @ Tennessee, vs Atlanta, vs Jacksonville, takes the Colts into their bye week. With Kerry Collins you're looking at best a 2-5 record in those games, taking the colts to 2-8 and eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving. With Favre, 5-2, 4-3 is more likely, putting the Colts at .500 or close to it around Thanksgiving, and right in the middle of an AFC playoff race that should be wide open at the bottom.

Colts fans seem up to it, and they paid 750 million to build Lucas Oil Stadium and have filled it every game it's been open. Indiana sports fans have too much high school and college basketball, as well as a lot of college football to worry about, so much so that rooting for a losing team in a down year isn't something they're interested in doing. No teams fans are interested in the sort of futility that the Collins/Caldwell Colts have presented.

A lot of people have said Favre would be bad for the Colts and pointed out reasons like PR issues. What PR issues? Last I checked the Colts were one of the most well respected franchises in the NFL, and considered to be the single most Christian franchise in professional sports. If by "PR issues" people mean the hiring of Jim Tressel, then I guess the Raiders, Seahawks, Dolphins, Panthers, and every other franchise has some serious "PR issues" to deal with right now.

The other things I heard were money, better QB options, and locker room issues. As for money, the Colts gave Kerry Collins $4 million this year and still remained $8 million under. Favre can't expect 2010 salary numbers, so I'm pretty sure the Colts could have, and still can afford him. As for better QB options; Carson Palmer would require the trading of a second round pick, and David Garrard is still not better than an old Brett Favre. Finally, is Brett Favre really a bad locker room guy? I know Thomas Jones complained about him, but other than that I never really heard anything bad about him. I know that guys like Jared Allen loved him, and the Packers players always respected him.

Favre is the only hope in Indianapolis right now. It's the only hope for the 2011 Colts, the only hope for Jim Caldwell's job, and a move that could help Bill Polian restore some of the general managing respect that he has rapidly lost since the Colts Super Bowl XLI victory.

That is unless the Colts don't want to win this year, which may very well be a possibility. Drafting at the bottom of a decades worth of drafts have left the Colts with a thin roster of talent, and perhaps Polian understands that the only way the Colts win again in this Manning window is with a team made up of the talented veterans he already has, and top flight young talent. Similar to the Shanahan, Elway, Davis Broncos of the late 1990's.

Super Bowl XLIV: The Final Word

The long season, all the stories, the countless debates, it all comes down to today. The top two teams for most of the 2009 season will be on the field when the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints kickoff from Miami. As far as the NFL goes, this is the way it should be.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have played each other three times in their careers. The first meeting was in 2004 when Peyton lead his team on a fourth quarter comeback, a game which he threw his record breaking 49th touchdown pass. The following year, Brees got the final word when he lead the Chargers to victory in a game that saw the Colts dreams of an undefeated season go down the toilet. The final meeting was the first game of the 2007 season where Manning and the Colts ripped apart a weak Saints defense 41-10, making the series Manning 2, Brees 1.

Today's game in entirely different. First of all, two of the games were Colts vs Chargers games. Second of all, the 2007 teams, though still very similar, are also pretty different. In a lot of ways that is what makes today's game so special; We're getting a match up we have never really seen before.

So today when you watch the Super Bowl, just enjoy the game. Whether it's a blowout or an all time classic, just stay in front of your television. Because either way, this is going to be a game that will be talked about for a long, long time. And even if it's not, it's been a great season.

Peyton vs the 4-3 Defense

More than any player of the past decade, Peyton Manning's strengths and weaknesses have been heavily documented. Though his struggles with the 3-4 defense early in his career have been well documented, Manning mastered the 4-3 defense very early in his career.

This Sunday, Manning well get to square off against the New Orleans Saints and their 4-3 defense. The 4-3 is build around a blitzing front line and a strong secondary that induces turnovers. Part of the reason Manning has been so successful against the 4-3 in the past five seasons is because Manning responds well to the blitz, and doesn't really cause too many turnovers.

In the past five seasons (since 2005), the Colts have only lost to a 4-3 defense only 6 times when playing all of their starters. Of those six losses only one was too a non-divisional opponent, the 2008 Chicago Bears on opening day. If you recall, the Colts started 2008 very slow because Peyton Manning missed all out training camp with a knee infection that he was still recovering from early in 2009.

Much of Manning's success against the 4-3 stems from the fact that the Colts have run the 4-3 for Manning's entire career, so he has seen it every day. Since 2005, the Colts have run one of the most effective 4-3's in the NFL. Even when the Colts defense was bad, Manning still had Tony Dungy as his head coach, one of the revolutionaries of the 4-3 Cover 2 defense. To put it plainly, Manning understands the 4-3 defense better than any quarterback in the NFL. Then again, Manning probably understands every defensive formation and scheme better than every other quarterback in the NFL.

So when the Colts line up on offense tomorrow, look for Manning to feel the Saints out early, before going ballistic on their 4-3 scheme tomorrow. The only difference between this Saints team and the other 4-3's that Manning has played in the past is the fact that the Saints offense is extremely potent. Much like when Manning faces the Houston Texans, he won't have much time to adjust to the Saints defense before he'll find himself in an early hole.

NFL Super Bowl Pick

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts

If you haven't already, expect to hear thousands of predictions and picks for this weekends game. Some predictions will be good, others will be awful, and some will be confusing. If you have followed this blog all season you understand that I put a lot of thought into each of my picks and I try to play it as even as I possibly can.

For that very reason I spent the bulk of the 2010 season considering the New Orleans Saints the best team in the NFL. This assessment was made absolutely clear after the post-Thanksgiving edition of Monday Night Football where the Saints ravaged a New England Patriots team that was healthy and holding on to Super Bowl aspirations. After that game the Saints began to look beatable, almost falling to the Redskins and Falcons before finally losing at home to the Cowboys and on the road to the Bucs. The Saints would also lose their final game of the regular season to the Panthers, but we can't count that game given the Saints starters were mostly on the bench. With those three loses aside, the Saints were able to dominate the NFC for most of the 2010 season, and in turn became America's darlings.

The Colts of 2009 entered the season disrespected by the media and continue to be just that. Entering the season questions surrounded the franchise and whether or not they could win without retired Head Coach Tony Dungy and wide receiver Marvin Harrison. After getting manhandled by the Dolphins on Monday Night but still coming up with the win the Colts were written off as a "second class" team in the AFC behind the Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots. When the Colts beat the Patriots on Sunday Night football excuses were made. When the Colts decided to give up on their perfect season and choose health over 16-0 they were ridiculed by their fans, and everyone else's fans alike, even after Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker got injured to the point where it cost their teams playoff longevity. Entering the divisional playoffs many suspected the Colts would again be "one and done," entering the AFC title game the media and the Jets fans alike spent an entire week bashing the Colts. But all the 2009 Colts have done is win every game that they have tried to; Which is why they're in the Super Bowl.

One group of people have backed the Colts for pretty much all of the 2009: the bookies of the United States of America. Outside of their week three showdown with the Cardinals, those who set the lines for gambling on the NFL have favored the Colts in every game they have played in this year, and there's a reason for that. Bookies aren't in the business of losing money. It sounds stupid, but these people know what they're getting into when they move a line from -3.5 to -6.

I know that pointing to the bookmakers is dumb, but a huge jump like that deserved at least a little attention.

If I really want to point out a dumb, inconsequential statistic for you, it would be the curse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it's relevance in this game. Since 1976, their first year a franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never beaten the eventual Super Bowl champion. As I said earlier in this post, the 2009 Buc's have defeated the 2009 New Orleans Saints. If the Saints win this game they will become the first team to ever lose to the Buccaneers and win the Super Bowl in the same season. Like the 2009 Saints, the 2001 Rams got to the Super Bowl this decade in a season where they lost to the Bucs, and we all know what happened in that game.

Okay, enough of the issues that have nothing to do with this game.

This game is going to be a real treat because it's the first time that this generation of players can claim an undisputed champion. This decade I have had little to no problem with the champion crowned every year, but there has always been the proclamation "well if this team had played such and such." You can't make that argument this year. The Colts are 16-0 in games they have tried to win, the Saints are 15-2 in games that they have tried to win. Combined these two teams started 2009 27-0. Both were one seeds in their conferences and for the first time since 1993 the two one seeds are squaring off in the Super Bowl. In other words; We're finally getting a titanic bout for the Super Bowl.

The Saints enter this game with the more "high powered" offense. Like the 2001 Rams or the Colts teams of the early part of the decade, the Saints entire game plan runs through their offense. Their defense isn't bad, but it relies on turnovers and the fact that opposing teams are often playing from behind. This strategy makes for a strong pass rush and turnover driven secondary.

The Saints biggest strength is also their biggest weakness entering this game; All Pro Quarterback Drew Brees. Brees is without a doubt one of the best QB's in the NFL, but he also hasn't exactly played his best football in big games. In the NFC Championship game, both in 2006 and 2009 Brees has looked shaky. Brees' size, though not always an issue, can hurt the quarterback going against a defense that has done well taking away the big passing play in 2009. Overall the Saints will need to rely on Brees this Sunday to bring the city of New Orleans it's first championship, and that's a lot of pressure.

The Colts are certainly a more balanced team than the Saints, though the statistics don't always prove it. Joseph Addai hasn't had a lights out season in 2009, but he has quietly been one of the most productive backs in the league, at times willing the Colts offense to success. I wholeheartedly believe that Addai will have a positive impact on this game for Indianapolis, and he will be a key to victory.

On defense the Colts just need to do what they do. The Saints can score, and they probably will score on Indianapolis, the Colts just need to make sure that they don't lose their composure. Since 2005 this Colts defense has gone into every game like a fighter ready to take punches. This team has done amazingly adjusting throughout games and forcing turnovers; like in the 2006 and 2009 AFC Championship games. It will be very important for this Colts team to keep their composure after 20 yard receptions or back to back 6 yard runs.

The final key to the Colts winning their second Super Bowl since 2006 is their four time MVP quarterback Peyton Manning. In Super Bowl XLI Manning was the games MVP, leading his team to victory over a very good Bears defense. Since then, Manning has been called one of the more undeserving Super Bowl MVP's of the decade, and you know that bothers the inner historian in Manning. Manning can't let this control him though, and I'm sure he won't. At the end of the day Manning knows the two rings is more important than great stats in the Super Bowl. In Kurt Warner's last two Super Bowl appearances he had amazing stats but no hardware. Manning would much rather be on the Ben Roethlisberger side of the fence with two average performance and two rings.

There has been a lot of talk about this game coming down to who has the ball last. Maybe it will, though I doubt it. I have a feeling that this game will be close early, but come celebration time, you'll be seeing a lot more Blue and White in Miami than you will Gold and Black.

I'm taking the Colts to win the Super Bowl

Where Will History Place a Champion Saints Team?

There has been a lot of talk about the place of the 2009 Colts in the history books if they win Super Bowl XLIV, but what place would a Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints team hold in the record books?

Similar to Indianapolis the Saints started off the season incredibly hot, getting off to a 13-0 start before losing back to back games to the Cowboys and Bucs (their backups lost a third straight game to the Panthers) to finish the season 13-3. Unlike Indianapolis, the Saints actually tried to win in their two losses, but like Indianapolis there is no questioning who the best team in the Saints conference was in 2009.

It's rare to have a situation where two teams in one Super Bowl are playing each other for the spot of "best single season team of the decade," but that may be exactly what is on the line in Super Bowl XLIV. A lot of attention has been drawn to the 14-0 Colts, with their four time MVP quarterback and various other Hall of Fame players, but similar stories could be written about the 13-0 New Orleans Saints. Both teams have had exceptional seasons with about a dozen trademark moments on the field.

The 2009 Saints, if they beat Indianapolis, would have beaten the AFC #1 seed, the NFC #2 seed, and the defending NFC champion to win a franchises first Vince Lombardi trophy. With that sort of resume it will be difficult to keep the 2009 New Orleans Saints out of the top two Super Bowl champions of decade, behind maybe the 2004 New England Patriots. The Saints dominant offense would give the team a trademark unit, and their defense has enough of a face in Jonathan Vilma and Darren Sharper to give the 2009 Saints plenty of recognition in the history books. Not to mention a Super Bowl victory would put Drew Brees in the same sentence as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, at least for now.

We can talk for hours about what a win would do for the legacy of this Indianapolis Colts team, but the truth of the matter is, the game means just as much to the Saints. Though I honestly feel that the Colts have a much heavier boulder on their backs, I can't neglect the fact that this game means almost as much for a team that started 13-0.

What If The Colts Lose? Pt 3: Return to Miami

The 2009 Colts are one win away from going down as one of the greatest single season teams of all time. They'll join the 1972 Miami Dolphins, 1984 San Francisco 49ers, and the 1985 Chicago Bears in the discussion for what team was the single greatest team in NFL history.

What the 2009 Colts have working for them is the amount of adversity they have overcome. Whether it was replacing a Hall of Fame coach with a rookie head coach, replacing a Hall of Fame wide receiver, losing Anthony Gonzalez week one, losing Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson for the year, or facing media scrutiny for "giving up" on perfection, the Indianapolis Colts have faced adversity all season, and have overcome it each and every week.

Now, the Colts face their final test. Scrutiny for resting their players and the excuses of player injuries no longer exists, the goal is the same as it has always been for the Colts, win the Super Bowl or the season was a failure. Like the divisional round and the championship round, the Colts have a lot of pressure on their backs. In a lot of ways the pressure is off the Saints because they at least got to the Super Bowl. Of course the Super Bowl is the most pressure filled game one could ever be a part of, but there was such a sense of anxiety for New Orleans in the NFC Championship game, it sort of feels like a Super Bowl is just another game for them.

The Colts on the other hand need to win ring number two to get their core team listed in the annals of great teams in NFL history. The Colts of the 00's may have won more games than any team in any decade in the history of the sport, but their one ring to show for it is completely pedestrian. Considering the whole spygate scandal and what still has yet come from that episode, it's completely logical to consider the Colts, with their second ring, the team of the 00's. Personally, I'll still consider the 00's the Patriots decade, though their one more ring will eventually be evened out in time by the volume of Hall of Famers these Colts teams produce.

More so than anything for the Colts, that is what is on the line this week: Hall of Fame candidacies, legendary statuses, and most importantly; legacies. As it stands now, Manning Wayne, Saturday, and Freeney could probably punch their tickets to Canton now. A second Super Bowl ring for each and you could start to add their names to the All Time greats. A second ring could also do wonders for Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, and maybe even Gary Brackett's candidacy for the Hall of Fame. There's also Adam Vinatieri who may not even dress on Sunday, but with a win would get his fifth Super Bowl ring. For the Colts, a second Super Bowl would transform all of these all stars to all timers, the type of names we'll hear about for the next fifty years.

If the Colts lose on Sunday than it all takes a huge step back. Even if the Colts go on to win another Super Bowl with this core, the one loss will always resonate. The sort of loss that those 49ers, Steelers, and Cowboys teams never had. The difference between these Colts and these Saints may be that the Colts, more than any other franchise in the NFL, understand this. They understand that they're on the verge of transforming a franchise that was on the verge of moving in 1997 into a dynasty entering 2010.

In order to do that the Colts will need to do something they have already done once, win a Super Bowl in Miami with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. If Manning and the Colts succeed on Sunday, then the NFL may not only be a coronation for it's 44th Super Bowl champion, there may also be a coronation for their Gretzky, Jordan, Woods, or Ali; in other words their greatest of all time.

A loss, and Manning and the Colts take a huge step back. One that even Manning may not be able to come back from.

The Freeney Question

Right now the media is buzzing with Dwight Freeney stories, making the All Decade defensive end's ankle the biggest story of Super Bowl week.

Personally, I fully anticipate on Freeney participating in this Sunday's game, though it's impossible to expect him to be 100%. Some have called it a "miracle" if Freeney plays this week, but I wouldn't call it that. Freeney has done this before, he's done it this season. Dwight Freeney is a gamer, and he's going to make sure he can at least get in there a little bit.

If Freeney does sit, it would mean that the Saints would get a Colts defense without Marlin Jackson, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders. If the Saints heard that in week one they would take it in a second.

What the Saints, and most football fans don't understand is that the Colts defense is now, and always has been, a deep pool of similar players. Bob Sanders goes out, Melvin Bullitt steps in and pulls off a great season. Marlin Jackson goes down, Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey step in and do great. If Dwight Freeney goes down, the Colts trust that Raheem Brock and company can get the job done. Robert Mathis would flip over to Freeney's side for create better matchups for Brock.

What I expect to happen is for Freeney to play, but on limited downs. That would make the Colts defense a pass rush by committee.

With or without Freeney the Colts will have their hands full. This season against offenses in a similar range as the Saints the Colts let up points. The Pats scored on the Colts, the Texans scored on the Colts. The Colts let up points. Perhaps the best display of effort the Colts put on this year was against the Cardinals in week 3. In order to win this week the Colts are going to have to replicate that 31 to 10 effort to prevent Manning and the offense from being pressured into putting up points on every down.

Either way though, the Colts coaching staff is probably smart enough to know that blitzing and getting to Brees isn't going to be the easiest thing to do on every down. In order to beat the Saints, strong play from the secondary and ball control is probably more important.

Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints

So the field of 32 has narrowed down to two, and for the first time in two decades we're treated to the two undeniable best teams playing one another. I know I may have just offended some Chargers and Vikings fans, but the Colts and Saints both got to 13-0, and for most of the season looked unflappable.

The Colts handled the New York Jets today after a really close first half that saw the Jets go up 17-13 on Indianapolis. The Colts would dominate the second half and easily close out the Jets in the fourth quarter to win their second AFC title in four years.

The Saints won their first NFC championship today by beating a Vikings team that actually outplayed New Orleans today, but caused a lot of errors. All season we watched and waited for Brett Favre to implode and it finally happened today. For the second time in three seasons the final play of Favre's career was a game losing interception.

The Colts versus the Saints should be a dream come true for football fans. Both teams have great offenses lead by two of the leagues premiere quarterbacks; Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Each teams defense has their strengths and weaknesses. On paper the match looks even, but the intangibles tell a different story.

Since the 2005 season, the year that Indianapolis succeeded New England as the elite franchise of the NFL, the Colts haven't lost very many games (excluding week 16 and 17 contests). When Peyton and company have lost it's been mostly to teams that run the 3-4 defense such as Dallas in 2007, the Chargers in 2005, 2007-08, the Steelers in 2005, Packers in 2008, and the Patriots in 2007. Other than divisional opponents in late 2006 and early 2008, the only 4-3 team that has been successful against the Colts since 2005 are the Chicago Bears of 2008.

That's correct. The ONLY 4-3 team outside of the AFC South to defeat the Indianapolis Colts since 2005 are the 2008 Chicago Bears. Take into account that (excluding AFC South opponents, though what am I hiding? Since 2005 the Jaguars are 2-8, Titans are 2-8, and Texans are 1-9 vs. Indianapolis. That's a 25-5 record against pretty good 4-3 teams) the Colts have played over twenty 4-3 opponents.

So that's going to be the key to victory for the 2009 New Orleans Saints; replicating the 2008 season opener where the Chicago Bears beat Indianapolis 29-13. That game Matt Forte ran for 123 yards, but the key to the Bears win was a Lance Briggs 21 yard fumble return.

You may call me crazy for bringing up this irrelevant game, but you need to learn from those who were successful in order to be successful yourself. I understand that the Colts played this game with an injured Peyton Manning, but still, it was a 4-3 having success against the Colts.

A game that the Saints will not want to repeat is the 2007 season opener, where the Colts dominated the saints 41-10. Though 2007 seems like a long time ago, the Colts will return seven starters on offense, and six starters on defense. The Saints will return six starters on offense, but only four starters on defense. More or less, these two teams are very similar to the two teams that met in 2007. At least personnel wise.

Systematically, neither team should not expect anything they hadn't seen before. The Saints do what the Saints do and the Colts do what the Colts do. The winner of this game will be the team that does what they do better in fourteen days.

Colts May Add a Dent in Tony Dungy's Legacy Today

After the 2001 season Tony Dungy was fired by the Buccaneers and hired by the Colts. The following season, Jon Gruden lead the Buccaneers franchise to its first ever Super Bowl, something Dungy couldn't do in his entire time in Tampa.

Today, if Jim Caldwell and the Colts are able to beat the Jets in Indianapolis, it would mark the second time that a team in their first post-Dungy year went to the Super Bowl.

To Dungy's defense, he was able to lead the Colts to a victory in Super Bowl XLI, but many people think that a "tougher" head coach could have guided the Colts to Super Bowl victories in 2005 and 2008 as well.

Gruden and Caldwell are much tougher than Dungy. You can tell by the ferocity and focus that the 2002 Bucs and 2009 Colts have played with it that there is something ant-Dungy to them.

Maybe it's just that the Bucs and Colts were ready to become Super Bowl champions and it took the focus of a "new system" to motivate them to that point.

But then again, maybe it has something to do with Dungy be just a little too "soft."

The Type of Game Where Bob Sanders May Be Missed

In 2006 the Indianapolis Colts rode safety Bob Sanders to the AFC Championship game. All season the Colts run defense was awful with Sanders sidelined, but dominated the run in the first two rounds of the playoffs with Sanders fully healthy.

The following season Sanders won the Defensive Player of the Year award, only to get injured in the Colts divisional round game against the Chargers. When Sanders came out of the game the Colts were winning. The Colts ended up losing in the fourth quarter though.

Since that game Bob Sanders has not been the same, and while Sanders started the 2009 season hurt, many expected him to return and give the Colts a boost of energy in stopping the run. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, Sanders 2009 season consisted of two games, three tackles, and an interception off of 49ers QB Alex Smith.

Fortunately for Indianapolis the Colts run defense has stepped up in Sanders absence, with players like LB Clint Session making a name for themselves this year.

While the Colts have done well this season against the run, they could still use Sanders as a lights out run defender this week when the Colts host the Jets in the AFC championship game. The Jets may not have the physical running machines that the Colts have gone up against this year like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, and of course Chris Johnson, but the Jets do have a solid back-tandem of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene that has the NFL's first ranked running attack.

The Colts are familiar with teams trying to "shove the ball down their throats." Every year teams like Jacksonville, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh attempt to run, run, run, on Indianapolis. More often that these Colts win those games (since 2006 the Colts have a combined 15-3 record against those four teams). Since 2006, many, if not most of those games were played without Sanders.

The one team who may have put out the recipe on how to beat Indianapolis are the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have traditionally used a balance of short passing, lots of running, and blitzing 3-4 defense to beat the Colts. The Chargers have also manipulated field position in the past to beat the Colts. If the Jets intend on beating the Colts, they're going to have to do those things. If the Colts intend on beating the Jets, they're going to have to prevent those things.

That would be a lot easier done with a healthy Bob Sanders.

Still, the Colts intend on moving forward without Sanders and they have gotten this far without him for 15 games. In the past, where the Colts defense would play less confident without Sanders, now the Colts defense is fine on their own. A big part of that is likely because most of the defense starting on Sunday wasn't there for the 2006 run.

What a Super Bowl Victory Would Mean For Each of The Remaining Franchises?

With twenty four hours remaining until kickoff of championship weekend, the fans of the final four franchises, the Jets, Colts, Vikings, and Saints, are likely both nervous and excited today.

Each franchise has something different invested in winning a Super Bowl, and it's important to explore what a Super Bowl victory might mean for each franchise.

New York Jets
The Jets are opening a new stadium stadium next year and need to sell a lot of Personal Seat License's (PSL). Though this playoff run has helped sell plenty of new ones, plenty remain. A Super Bowl victory for the Jets would absolutely energize the New York market enough to not only sell every PSL available, but also create a waiting list like there was at the old Giants stadium.

A Super Bowl win for the Jets would also give the franchise some punching room in the debate between New York teams. Since the early 1980's the Jets have been the undeniable second-best-team-in-New-York, but a Super Bowl victory would put the Jets in the same sentence as the Giants. It wouldn't put the Jets above the Giants, who went to two Super Bowls in the 00's and won one in 2007, but it would even the debate out for now. Though it sounds childish, this competition is important for revenue, more specifically merchandise sales.

A win for the Jets would heal a lot of the franchises post-Namath wounds; drafting Ken O'Brien over Dan Marino, missing out on Brett Favre in 1991, missing out on Peyton Manning in 1997, Bill Belichick resigning at Jets head coach to coach the Patriots in 2000, Mo Lewis knocking Drew Bledsoe out in 2001, the Favre debacle of 2008, and all of Chad Pennington's injuries just to name a few. A win in Super Bowl XLIV would heal many, if not all, of those wounds.

The 2009 Jets would also be remembered as the first team to win a Super Bowl with a rookie; something that Marino, Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco (other impressive rookie QB's) could not do. That alone would make a Super Bowl for the Jets this year even more significant.

Indianapolis Colts

Even before Peyton Manning came to town, the Colts were considered one of the greatest franchises in the history of the sport, it just took Manning to make them relevant in Indianapolis. A win in Super Bowl XLIV would give the Indianapolis Colts their second Super Bowl, and the Colts franchise its third. Counting the Unitas pre-Super Bowl wins, it will give the Colts their fifth undisputed football championship.

A Super Bowl victory this year for the Colts would mean countless things historically; the Colts would have gone undefeated in every game that Peyton Manning played four quarters, and they would likely change the way that teams went about handling the final weeks of the regular season for a long time. A win would also put the Colts in the elite company of teams with three or more Super Bowls, and would put the franchise back into the mix of the top five franchises in the sport.

A win would also do wonders for Peyton Manning's career. Manning is widely considered the best player in the league right now, but a second Super Bowl ring mixed with his four MVP awards, would likely put him in the debate for the best ever. It would also solidify Manning as the player of the decade, and put the Colts in the discussion for team of the decade (though they would have one less ring than the Patriots, they would have more overall wins and two more playoff appearances).

Though it's probable a Super Bowl win wouldn't give the decade to the Colts franchise, it's an absolute truth that the 2009 Colts would be considered the best single season team of the decade, and amidst the all-time elite.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings are a championship-less franchise that has suffered more heartbreak than maybe any other franchise in the league. In the 1970's the Vikings lost four Super Bowls, and since then have failed to return, losing in the playoffs countless times since in the past 30 years. A Super Bowl win would do wonders for a Vikings fan base that has stayed loyal throughout the franchises existence.

Right now "wonders" may be what the Vikings need to stay in Minnesota. The team has what many consider to be "major" stadium woes, and no deal is in place to renovate the building or create a new one. In other words, the Vikings are in danger of moving to Los Angeles, but a Super Bowl victory this year may be able to prevent that. After all, when a team is winning no one talks about them moving.

A Super Bowl victory would also solidify the Vikings as a "major" franchise in the league. Historically the Vikings have always drawn well nationally, and adding a Super Bowl to the Vikings repertoire will add some validity to that stat.

A Super Bowl win for the 2009 Vikings would also be the bookend in Brett Favre's career that transforms him into the greatest of all time. Favre is already the most popular Football player to ever, winning his second Super Bowl with a franchise that has never won one would be an incredible achievement; especially since no QB has ever won a Super Bowl with two different franchises to begin with.

New Orleans Saints

Hurricane Katrina may seem like a long time ago, but to the people in New Orleans it's not. Not only would a Saints Super Bowl victory give the Saints their first championship, it would be the cities first major championship as well. For a city that has gone through what New Orleans has gone through this decade, a Super Bowl would mean a lot. There's not much else to say besides that.

Saints fans have been through a lot of bad times. In the past they have had some good players, sometimes even great players, but they were never able to get a team together. Finally, for the first time in franchise history, the Saints have a team that could contend. More than any of the four teams still alive, the Saints are carving out their franchises history right now; Because the history before 2006 was miserable.

For Drew Brees, a Super Bowl victory would add his name to the list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and put him right in the debate with Manning, Brady, and Roethlisberger. For some other Saints it would mean different things; Jeremy Shockey will no longer be the guy who helped the 07 Giants by getting hurt. Reggie Bush, if he continues to perform, will be worth his hefty contract. Marques Colston will have what all the receivers who make it to the Pro Bowl each year over him don't have: a ring. Pretty much the entire Saints team has something to prove with a Super Bowl win.

But then again, so does every player left in the final four. When it's all said and done, a champion will be named based on what team deserves it the most.

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

While everyone else considers divisional weekend "the most exciting professional football weekend of the year," for me nothing has ever come close to conference championship weekend; even if there are no games on Saturday.

This weekend we're in for a particular treat. Even if the games fail to be legendary, this will be a weekend that football historians will look back on because of the significance of the four quarterbacks involved.

Mark Sanchez is the fourth rookie quarterback to take his team to a championship game in the past 11 seasons (Shaun King 99, Ben Roethlisberger 04, Joe Flacco 08). Up to this point Drew Brees has been this generations Warren Moon; great stats, few important wins, a win this weekend would put Brees in an enetirely different category historically. Brett Favre and Peyton Manning are both trying to get ring number two; Otherwise known as the ring that would validify either quarterbacks claim as the best ever.

Even when the games don't have this sort of historical significance it's still a cool weekend considering the winner goes to the friggin' Super Bowl. That's why we watch right? To crown a champion.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts - In week 3 a Jets @ Colts AFC title game wouldn't have been quite the shocker it would have been entering week 16, the week the Colts gave up on their perfect season to avoid injuries, consequently allowing the Jets to "back in" to the playoffs.

Personally I loved the week 16 Jets @ Colts game because it added to the name Curtis Painter to the "all time most hilarious players in NFL history list." Other than that there is little to take from the outcome of that game.

This week, uneducated Colts fans and Jets fans have been at each others throats over the implications of that game. "We beat 'dem once, we can beat 'dem again," proclaim the Jets fans calling into WFAN NY, while Colts fans continue to defend (half-heartily) Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian's decision to pull Peyton and company.

Though the outcome of the game is completely useless, it may actually have lead to the deciding outcome of this game.

Peyton Manning is notoriously a film-hound. The guy, more than any quarterback in NFL history, lives in the film room. In 2 quarters and one drive in the third quarter, Manning was on pace to have the best game against the Jets defense of the season. The Jets were giving 110% with their playoff hopes on the line, but Manning was able to move the ball. Save for a few off-target throws. Manning and the Colts could have put the game away early.

Fast forward to wild card weekend. Reports were coming out all over the place that the Colts were firing on all cylinders at practice, practicing harder than any first-round-bye team has ever practiced. You know who the Colts were preparing for that week?

The New York Jets.

It turned out the Baltimore Ravens would come to town instead. Not exactly the worst thing for Manning. After all, if any team in the NFL resembles the Jets the most it's the Ravens: young QB not asked to do much, ridiculously talented running game, top tier defense.

The Colts beat the Ravens 20-3. From 2005 to 2008 when Ryan was defensive coordinator of the Ravens, Manning and the Colts beat the Ravens top tier defense 24-7 in 2005, 15-6 in 2006, 44-20 in 2007, and 31-3 in 2008. Obviously the Jets of 2009 are a different batch of players than those Ravens teams, but the looks will be similar. Simply put, it shows that Rex Ryan doesn't scare Peyton Manning.

Counting week 16, Manning has now had three weeks to prepare for the Jets number one ranked defense. If there is one player in the NFL you don't want to give time to prepare, it' Peyton Manning. The key to the Jets winning is going to be somehow creating something new to throw Manning off on a few plays that cause turnovers.

Peyton Manning is far from infallible. He can make mistakes and we've seen it this year. The key to a Jets victory will not be forcing those mistakes, but capitalizing on them. One way or another the Colts are putting at least twenty points on the board, the Jets are going to somehow have to match that number, and raise it by a few.

The wild card in this match up is the Colts defense. Last week they shot down a brilliant Ravens offense that ran all over the New England Patriots the week before. This season the Colts have been successful stopping the run by being persistent. In years past where the Colts would allow teams all the way down the field, now the Colts give every down 100%, forcing teams into red zone turnovers and field goals instead of touchdowns. If there's one thing the Jets cannot afford this week it's field goals. A great day of field goals equals only twelve points; a bad day for Peyton is 17 points.

In order for the Jets to get those points they're going to have to pass the ball in the red zone. Unfortunately for the Jets they'll be going up against the leagues top ranked red zone pass defense, with the leagues bottom ranked red zone quarterback.

When all is said and done it's going to be hard for the Jets to win this one. Cincinnati and San Diego featured favorable match ups against teams that aren't mentally or physically tough. The Colts are neither a favorable match up or soft. All season long the Colts overcame adversity, coming back from immeasurable deficits in games to win. They're going to win this one, too.

I'm taking the Colts at Home.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints and the Vikings both got off to hot starts in 2009 before limping into the playoffs. Fortunately for both teams, they ran into self-destructing teams at home last week, allowing both teams to advance to the conference finals. For both teams, this is their second trip to the conference finals this decade. Their combined conference championship record is 0-2 this decade, after Sunday that will change to 1-3.

The team that wins this game is going to be the team that plays better defense. It sounds simple but it's true. At times this season both teams have look incredible on defense, and at times both teams have looked miserable on defense. Naturally, the Vikings have the higher ranked defense so you would assume they'd win.

Not necessarily.

Having the better defensive unit and playing better defensively are two different things. The Saints defense will also be given a slightly easier task, considering the Vikings offense is undeniably less explosive than the Saints offense. The key to a successful defensive game for the Vikings is a strong offensive ground attack. If Favre starts throwing the ball, at some point he's going to make a turnover, and at some point he's going to force a quick three and out. Both situations favor the Sains immensely in this game.

The Vikings are going to need to control the ground, to control the clock, and keep Drew Brees off the field. That sort of tactic will add pressure to Brees and a young Saints team that the team is not used to. It will also open plenty of opportunities for Favre and the Vikings potentially dominant passing game.

To put it plainly, if Adrian Peterson is sick of hearing about how Chris Johnson is the best tailback in the NFL, this week would be a good time to shut that debate up.

For the Saints the key to victory will be putting the ball in Brett Favre's hands. Though forcing one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history to win a game doesn't exactly sound like the smartest idea ever, remember that in his 19 year career, Brett Favre has only one Super Bowl victory, and this decade is 0-6 in playoff berths ending with a Super Bowl berth. Favre has come out sour more often than not in big game situations this decade, and the Saints cannot be afraid of putting the ball in his hands if they want to win.

The second key for the Saints is going to be avoiding interceptions. All season Drew Brees was good with handling the ball. This Sunday he needs to be great. One turnover against the Vikings can be the difference maker in this game. Brees cannot fear the Vikings defensive line. At some point they're going to get to him, put him on his back, and make him wish he was still in San Diego. A sack is better than an interception, especially with an offense like the Saints where losing yardage doesn't exactly change the game plan on the following down.

This game will probably be competitive entering the final moments of the game, but I'm going to give the advantage to the team that puts up a better ground performance. For this game I'm going to assume that will be Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and the Minnesota Vikings.

I'm taking the Vikings on the Road.