Favre to the Colts Actually Makes Sense

If it wasn't about the money, if it was simply about trying to get one more ring, Brett Favre would be wearing a horseshoe on his helmet right now. It's not Favre's fault, it's mostly Bill Polian's fault, but the Colts could have avoided an awful 0-2 start, and could have created the craziest media storm in NFL history, by opting with an old Brett Favre over an old Kerry Collins.

Is it too late? The Colts don't have a young quarterback worth trying out right now. Curtis Painter has shown everyone from Jim Irsay to Rex Ryan that he's not an NFL starting quarterback, and Kerry Collins has been nothing short of awful in his first two starts as the Colts QB. The Colts roster right now has a lot of veterans and young players who can win now, but an 0-3 start will be tough to come back from, even in the AFC South.

But if you bring in Brett Favre now, thing could start to get better. Unless Peyton Manning has a miraculous recovery the Colts are going to lose to the Steelers on Sunday and fall to 0-3, but after that the Colts schedule softens up. @ Tampa Bay, vs Kansas City, @ Cincinnati, @ New Orleans, @ Tennessee, vs Atlanta, vs Jacksonville, takes the Colts into their bye week. With Kerry Collins you're looking at best a 2-5 record in those games, taking the colts to 2-8 and eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving. With Favre, 5-2, 4-3 is more likely, putting the Colts at .500 or close to it around Thanksgiving, and right in the middle of an AFC playoff race that should be wide open at the bottom.

Colts fans seem up to it, and they paid 750 million to build Lucas Oil Stadium and have filled it every game it's been open. Indiana sports fans have too much high school and college basketball, as well as a lot of college football to worry about, so much so that rooting for a losing team in a down year isn't something they're interested in doing. No teams fans are interested in the sort of futility that the Collins/Caldwell Colts have presented.

A lot of people have said Favre would be bad for the Colts and pointed out reasons like PR issues. What PR issues? Last I checked the Colts were one of the most well respected franchises in the NFL, and considered to be the single most Christian franchise in professional sports. If by "PR issues" people mean the hiring of Jim Tressel, then I guess the Raiders, Seahawks, Dolphins, Panthers, and every other franchise has some serious "PR issues" to deal with right now.

The other things I heard were money, better QB options, and locker room issues. As for money, the Colts gave Kerry Collins $4 million this year and still remained $8 million under. Favre can't expect 2010 salary numbers, so I'm pretty sure the Colts could have, and still can afford him. As for better QB options; Carson Palmer would require the trading of a second round pick, and David Garrard is still not better than an old Brett Favre. Finally, is Brett Favre really a bad locker room guy? I know Thomas Jones complained about him, but other than that I never really heard anything bad about him. I know that guys like Jared Allen loved him, and the Packers players always respected him.

Favre is the only hope in Indianapolis right now. It's the only hope for the 2011 Colts, the only hope for Jim Caldwell's job, and a move that could help Bill Polian restore some of the general managing respect that he has rapidly lost since the Colts Super Bowl XLI victory.

That is unless the Colts don't want to win this year, which may very well be a possibility. Drafting at the bottom of a decades worth of drafts have left the Colts with a thin roster of talent, and perhaps Polian understands that the only way the Colts win again in this Manning window is with a team made up of the talented veterans he already has, and top flight young talent. Similar to the Shanahan, Elway, Davis Broncos of the late 1990's.

No Reason For Jacksonville Not to Make the Move to Gabbert

On Sunday the Jaguars got destroyed by the Jets in part because of Luke McCown's four interceptions. I say "in part" because any football fan could tell you that the Jets are just much better than the Jaguars. The more interesting thing about the game was that Jack Del Rio didn't hesitate to throw rookie first round quarterback Blaine Gabbert into the fire once McCown threw his fourth interception. Now it's in Del Rio, Gabbert, and the Jaguars' best interest to keep Gabbert on the field for the duration of the season.

Normally I am a proponent of letting a quarterback sit for at least the first half of his rookie season. This formula of watching for a while helped quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and even Eli Manning get adjusted to the speed of the NFL, the players they're surrounded with, and the rulebook (didn't work too well for McNabb though, maybe he should've waited). But then Ben Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a 22 year old, and since then the patience for quarterback development has waned to the point where Tim Tebow not starting week one in his second year means he is officially a bust in some pundits eyes. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, and even Vince Young have validated the Roethlisbergerian (Rahth-Liss-Burr-Gare-E-an) technique of quarterback upbringing.

Right now, Gabbert's fellow rookies Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are doing just fine starting on teams far worse off than Gabbert's Jaguars are, and starting a rookie no longer means abandoning playoff hopes, yet another result of Roethlisberger's iconic 2004 season. If the Jaguars don't want 2011 to be a wasted year they'll let Blaine Gabbert take every snap from here until their season is officially over. This will not only let Gabbert experience the growing pains that have helped quarterbacks like Josh Freeman and Colt McCoy get more comfortable in their second seasons than they were as rookies, but it will also give the Jaguars their best chance of winning the AFC South in 2011.

NFL Week 2 Picks

So Like a dimwit I forgot to make my picks last week. This week, despite a brutally busy schedule, I refuse to forget, so here are my picks.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins - Two teams that expect to be better this year and one team will start their season 2-0. This game is going to come down to who wins the battle of quarterbacks. With LeRon Landry coming back the Redskins defense should be even better this week than they were last week. It's going to be up to Rex Grossman to build off of Cam Newton's dominant passing performance last week against the Cardinals seemingly atrocious pass defense.

I'm taking the Redskins at home.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts - Two teams that began the preseason with a lot of hope for 2011 enter a week 2 elimination game. The Colts looked awful last week and despite coming home I can't see them beating the Browns.

I'm taking the Browns on the road.

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills - Who would have thought that this would be a game we would actually show some interest in? I really don't know what either of these teams are about yet, but I think the Raiders have the better roster.

I'm taking the Raiders on the road.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints - This is probably the most intriguing early game. The Bears had an impressive win over a Falcons team that I expect to take a step back, meanwhile the Saints lost by a yard to the defending Super Bowl champions. The Saints need this win if they want to think about a first round bye.

I'm taking the Saints at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets - Last week the Jaguars ran the ball and controlled the clock to beat Tennessee. The Jaguars can do that and perhaps get Sanchez off of his game, but I still don't think the Jaguars have enough firepower to keep the Jets off the field long enough to make a difference for four quarters.

I'm taking the Jets at home.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions - The Chiefs are probably the worst team in the NFL, while the Lions are a potential playoff team. This should be a beating, if it's not then it's the same old Lions.

I'm taking the Lions at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneer @ Minnesota Vikings - These were two teams that could have made a statement in week one but instead had painful losses. The loser of this team will need to take a long look in the mirror and that scenario would be far more painful for the veteran Vikings than it would be for the young Bucs. Adrian Peterson is due for a big day after being held without a score last week.

I'm taking the Vikings at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans - The Matt Hasslebeck era in Tennessee could be short lived as the Ravens, coming off a dominant win over the Steelers, come to town. The only way the Titans win this one is if they control the ball and get a lot of big plays and turnovers. I just don't see that sort of perfect storm brewing.

I'm taking the Ravens on the road.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Simply put this is the sort of game an NFC West team doesn't need to win, but it's the sort of game an AFC North team needs to win. The Seahawks don't stand a chance in Pittsburgh, and if they win then the Steelers season is over.

I'm taking the Steelers at home.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers - Whenever I see this match-up it brings me back to my youth when I first fell in love with football as a first grader. The 49ers are coming off of a big win last week but the Cowboys are going to be hunting for their first win of the season, a win that they'll desperately need. If the 49ers can win this one then both teams 2011 fortunes will fork. The Cowboys can't afford for that to happen.

I'm taking the Cowboys on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos - The Broncos should win this game and if they don't they have bigger problems than quarterback billboards.

I'm taking the Broncos at home.

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins - A statement game that the Texans can't afford to lose. The Dolphins are a team in transition with a lame duck coach; a win this week could change that, but it would require shutting down a potent offense on a short week.

I'm taking the Texans on the road.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots - A game that deserves it's own article. A first round bye is potentially on the line in this game and the Patriots simply don't lose home regular season games under Bill Belichick. If Norv's team comes in ready to go the Chargers can win this game. A loss would hurt New England more than it would hurt San Diego.

I'm taking the Patriots at home.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons - The Vick Bowl II, the first real Vick Bowl. The Falcons are a team that are going to take a step back this year while the Eagles are a playoff team. This is the sort of loss that could put by prediction about the Falcons into motion.

I'm taking the Eagles on the road.

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants - Two teams that need to forget about week one. A win here would help either team get their season going, but both teams are incredibly beat up. The Giants losses hurt more than the Rams losses, but the Giants roster is still probably a little better than the Rams roster. Home field should help the Giants.

I'm taking the Giants at home.

You Can Win With Tony Romo (But Probably Not in Dallas)

On Sunday night Tony Romo had another fourth quarter meltdown that cost the Cowboys the game, thus giving the news media reason to criticize his play all week, most of which has been unjust.

Does Romo wish he didn't fumble the ball? Sure, but Romo made the right decision. In opting for the safest play call, Romo caused a turnover, but it was a turnover that could have happened to any quarterback in the league. Of course not fumbling would have put the game away, but the fumble itself isn't what cost the Cowboys the game.

Was it probably a bad idea targeting an injured Dez Bryant and picking on the best defensive player in the league? I'd say so, but if the coach is going to put the player on the field you need to utilize him. Some say that Bryant missed the route, but it was still a risk a more cautious quarterback might not have taken. Though Romo had some success against Revis over the course of the game, there is only so much you could do to Revis before you pay for it. Throughout his career, Revis has been the sort of player who gets better as the game goes on, and if you're going to get to him it's going to happen in the first half.

This week summed up Tony Romo's stint with the Cowboys: offensive success, a lot of great plays, but a few costly mistakes. There was no Wade Phillips to blame on Sunday, no T.O, and no grumpy Bill Parcells. This was Romo's loss, with Romo's coach, and it looks like it may very well be time for Tony Romo and Dallas to go their separate ways.

The problem with this is that Dallas are built to win now so they don't have time to wait for a Landry Jones or Matt Barkley. In order to part ways with Romo they would need a better option to go with to win in 2012, and franchise quarterbacks don't come on to the market every year, and when they do it's for a reason. The exception would be Joe Montana to the Chiefs or Brett Favre to the Jets, but it doesn't look like we have any situations like that... Yet.

But let's say we did. Where would Tony Romo go, and who would want him? In a quarterback free agent class led by Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Vince Young, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Charlie Whitehurst, it would seem as though Romo would be the blue chip on the market and the first domino to fall. I anticipate Fitzpatrick staying in Buffalo, but those other quarterbacks leaving should open up jobs in Denver, Miami, and Seattle, three potential destinations for Romo.

Miami, like Dallas, are built to win now. Next year they'll probably have a new head coach that is brought in to help sell tickets. The coach's name could be Gruden, it could be Fischer, it could even be Billick. Whoever it may be it'll be a coach who throughout their career has opted toward veteran quarterbacks. Enter Romo the Dolphin, which would likely be the best case scenario for Romo's career and mental health. In the AFC East no one will expect the Dolphins to do much. If he could beat New England and the Jets once each he'd initially be a hero. If he could get the team to the playoffs he'd be a savior. In a city that has embraced LeBron, Tony Romo would no longer have the weight of the world on his shoulders in Miami, and I could see it being a wonderful fit.

Then there's Denver, with head coach John Fox who has a rule against QB's under the age of 28: he hates them. Denver is a mess for any quarterback to step into, but it's really not that bad. The Denver defense should be competitive by this time next year, and the wide receivers and running backs are adequate. Romo in Denver would instantly put Denver back in the race that Kyle Orton has held them out of, but he'd be thrown into a poor situation with the expectations and popularity that Tebow (who would now presumably be gone) thrown onto his shoulders. This situation is not ideal but it could work.

Then there's Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks. Going to the NFC West would be great for Romo, but it might be hard for Jerry Jones to send him there. If this happened though, Romo would instantly have a chance to rebuild his career and his self esteem by picking apart the Cardinals and 49ers. Carroll seems to be looking for a quarterback with some athleticism, and Romo has enough, plus several other intangibles that would instantly turn the Seahawks into divisional favorites. The weapons are poor in Seattle, but who ever thought that Miles Austin would become what Romo has helped him become?

Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert prevent Romo from heading to Minnesota or Jacksonville, and there is an outside chance he could end up a 49er, but again I don't think Jerry Jones wants Romo in the NFC. That leaves Cleveland as the final potential destination for Romo, but they seem like the sort of franchise who would think rookie before they went veteran.

Wherever Tony Romo ends up next year, in this scenario everyone benefits. The Cowboys would have the Montana or Favre type (hint, hint) and Romo would be somewhere in the AFC with less pressure and a decent shot to take his team to the playoffs.

Now Is Not The Time For Tebow To Start

Let's get one thing straight: I think that there is hope for Tim Tebow in the NFL. Tebow possesses the talent to win with a team in a way that few quarterbacks in the NFL can win; By exciting his teammates and getting other players around the league excited to play with Tim Tebow. You can honestly only say that about a few players around the league namely Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees (I exclude Peyton and Rivers because their teams don't tend to bring in outside offensive weapons though I'm sure people like Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith would love to see them lining up under center).

A team built around Tim Tebow can win. It can't win tomorrow, but over time a team built around Tim Tebow can win a Super Bowl. It would require bringing in players excited about Tebow's athleticism, who are willing to get used to a lefty quarterback. It would require an offensive line built to protect a quarterback like Tebow, and it would require a strong vertical passing game. These are the sort of things that made Carolina a good fit for Cam Newton and Philadelphia a good fit for Michael Vick. The franchises, the coaches, and the players are all willing to make the adjustments to facilitate towards an athletic quarterback. Everyone in the locker room understands that the quarterback may get creative on any given play, and the coaches design their plays around such creativity.

John Fox, the head coach in Denver has no creativity. He likes his offenses the old way. Run the ball up the middle and throw high percentage passes. Throughout his career he's gone to battle with quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, Vinny Testaverde, and Matt Moore. If this were an SAT question, which quarterback would follow that lineage, Orton or Tebow?

If you answered Orton, you would be correct.

Orton is as "safe" of a quarterback as there is in the league. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, there is little upside to Orton. Orton will be an adequate quarterback who if the parts around him are effective will win football games. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, Orton can indeed lose a football game for his team. Throughout his career Orton has been an awful red zone quarterback, and that sort of play has translated into what he has done in Denver. Orton is a career 79 quarterback rating and a losing record in Denver. But he's a John Fox type quarterback.

John Fox is trying to build a team that will win via defense and adequate offense. He wants to minimize risks on offense and win games 24-17. Fox wants to have big plays on offense in the passing game and he wants everything to go according to plan. That's why he didn't go after Tebow in 2010, and that's why he doesn't want Tebow in 2011. John Fox and Tim Tebow are simply a bad fit.

But eventually Tebow will have to start in Denver. The Broncos aren't going anywhere and whether it be week 3 or week 13, eventually Tebow will unseat Orton and that's where interesting thins will happen. Specifically, Broncos President John Elway sits in the stickiest seat in the cafeteria here.

If Tebow takes over for Orton and is horrible, there will be nothing lost. Tebow will be traded or cut and the Broncos can move on with their lives. If Tebow succeeds, than Elway and Fox will be forced into a marriage that neither party wants. Of course both party's want to win, but neither wants to restructure their "blueprint" around Tebow.

The best case scenario for the Broncos is that Tebow comes in, shows signs of success, but the Broncos still manage a top 10 pick in a draft with a few great quarterback prospects. Under this design, Broncos management can sell their fan base on the promise and poise of Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, or maybe even Ryan Tannehill and still trade Tebow to a team like Seattle, Miami, Oakland (though an in division trade could spell disaster), or Minnesota for a second round pick. All four of those teams are franchises willing to "take risks" and all four of those coaches aren't afraid of QBs with a tendency to ad lib.

In order for Tim Tebow to succeed in the NFL he needs to be given the right opportunity. Had Michael Vick been thrown into the Herman Edwards Jets he would have failed miserably. Tebow needs an environment where an athletic lefty Quarterback will be given the opportunity to make his own plays while surrounded by players who want to play with him. It will eventually happen in the NFL, just not Denver.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Power rankings are a silly thing, but they're something that we as sports fans have come to love. We like to rank things, mostly because it gives us something to debate. Though some things on here will be debatable, the method behind my power rankings is that I'm trying to predict who will win the Super Bowl in a 1-32 order.

So here are our first rankings of the actual season. Elite are the teams I think have a real shot at going to or winning the Super Bowl. The Very Good are the teams I think have some shot, but are probably not going to the Super. Hanging In There are the teams who aren't quite eliminated, but in likelihood won't even go to the playoffs. And The Dead speak for themselves, they have no shot.

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers - The Packers beat the Saints on Thursday night and once again Aaron Rodgers made the quarterback position in the NFL look too easy. This team has a great shot to repeat as Super Bowl champions as long as Rodgers is under center. I can't say enough about how good Rodgers is right now, besides saying he's the best quarterback in the league right now. This team is going to need that bye if they want to repeat.

02. New Orleans Saints - Sure they lost this week, but their effort against the Packers in Green Bay showed that this team is for real. The road to a division title shouldn't be too challenging for the Saints, and I think they're looking forward to a rematch vs Green Bay, it doesn't matter where. If Rodgers is the best quarterback in the game right now, than Brees is a close second. He does the most with the least to work with.

03. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles looked good against the Rams on Sunday, but this is a team that needs to simply stay healthy and win their division. It's going to take another two months before this team gels, so the focus needs to be on keeping their division opponents an arms length away.

04. San Diego Chargers - On one hand the Chargers had a sloppy win against an inferior opponent. On the other hand the Chargers got a win in September. The way this team has started their seasons in the Norv Turner era, I think you take the win and move on to the next one at New England. This could be a real statement game for Rivers and company.

05. New England Patriots - The Patriots offense looks scary with their tight ends, though the running game still leaves much to be desired. They're the AFC's version of the Saints, and if these guys can get a first round bye then they may get back to the Super Bowl. Brady is right up there with Brees and Rodgers and can get anything done.

06. New York Jets - They showed heart and character in their come from behind win over the Cowboys. Some people want to say the Cowboys gave it away, and that may be true, but the Jets kept trying. Romo doesn't fumble or throw the interception if Rex Ryan doesn't have his team playing at 100%.

07. Baltimore Ravens - It may have been a Week 1 win by a quarterback with four road playoff victories, but that was the biggest win of Joe Flacco's career. If the Ravens can stay healthy then they will win this division and probably get a first round bye. They can beat any team in the league when Flacco plays well.

08. Chicago Bears - I wrote this team off in the preseason and I may have been terribly wrong. The Bears embarrassed the Falcons in a way that the franchise hasn't been embarrassed since Joey Harrington was the quarterback. If the Bears are going to win the NFC they're going to need to follow the Ravens mold and win because they have a great defense with a potent offense. They played the Packers well last year in the NFC title game, with a healthy Cutler a rematch might go the other way.

09. Houston Texans - Don't look now but the Texans have a real shot to go deep into the AFC playoffs. Their schedule plays out where they can afford to lose the tough games and still compete for a first round bye. Wade Phillips 3-4 defense looked great on Sunday, all be it against a beaten Colts team. The real strength of this team is that they may have the best offensive line in the NFL that no one knows about. They're a team that New England, Baltimore, and the Jets wouldn't want to see in January.

The Very Good


10. Detroit Lions - This team can win the Super Bowl. I wrote it in my pre season rankings and I'll write it again. This a young team though, and they'll likely make enough mistakes throughout the regular season to prevent themselves from going to the playoffs.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers will bounce back from their loss to the Ravens, but this team doesn't look like the sort of team that can get back to the Super Bowl.

12. Atlanta Falcons - I'll write their week 1 loss off for now, but if they lose to the Eagles then this team will need to look inward, and Matt Ryan will need to finally get the criticism he's deserved for two years.

13. Washington Redskins - I may later feel stupid for reading into their week 1 win over a poor Giants roster, but the Redskins have a shot to get back to the playoffs. Rex Grossman isn't a joke, though he is prone to boneheaded mistakes.

14. Dallas Cowboys - The key to the Romo and Garrett era's will be bouncing back from that painful week one loss. Jason Garrett coached a good game and I think he'll have the Cowboys ready to go week two.

15. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers took a big step in getting back to the playoffs by winning the opener to the Jim Harbaugh era. This division is made up of four equal teams and if the '9ers want to win it they're going to have to win games like they did Sunday.

16. Oakland Raiders - Their division win streak continues. The key to this teams season is going to be going 5-1 in their division and going 5-5 elsewhere, if they can do that than the Raiders will play their first playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII this January.

Hanging In There

17. Buffalo Bills - This may be the highest the Bills get in the power rankings this year, and their week 1 mauling of the Chiefs may have taken the Bills out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Still, the NFL is better when the Bills are relevant, and hopefully they can give the Jets and Patriots tough games this year.

18. New York Giants - This has to be the lowest the Giants will fall this season, right? Probably not. This roster is bad and it's time for a serious overhaul in New York this offseason. The GM is overrated, the coach has lost his control of the team, and the media needs to start placing blame on the quarterback. Eli's mistakes are becoming inexcusable.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars - The division is within reach. Not much else to say about this team other than even if they do make the playoffs they'll have no shot at going anywhere. I expect things to fall apart at some point in October for this franchise.

20. Arizona Cardinals - They may have won their game against the Panthers but they let a rookie QB who looked average at best in the preseason throw for over 400 yards on them. If Cam Newton can do that in week one, what will Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Michael Vick be able to do in January? Kevin Kolb looks adequate and this team can win the division.

21. St. Louis Rams - I wouldn't say a loss to the Eagles in week 1 ended their season because it didn't. It's up to Sam Bradford to take this team as far as he wants to take them. Is he ready yet? I doubt it. The rest of the division got better.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs lost a tough one to the Lions, but fortunately for them every other team in their division lost. I still expect a step back year for this team considering that they're no on the rest of the leagues radar.

23. Cincinnati Bengals - A big win over the Browns. A few more wins like this and the Bengals will find themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and Andy Dalton will continue to have a starting job in the league. If you didn't watch the game, Dalton had little to do with the win.

24. Carolina Panthers - We'll find out what this team is all about this week. I'd love to think that the game against Arizona was a sign of things to come, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. This is a team thinking about next year, but it's good to see them on the right track.

25. Minnesota Vikings - I thought this was a playoff team but they did everything possible to lose on Sunday. Their season, and McNabb's respect around the league, are on the line against the Bucs this week.

26. Tennessee Titans - This is a team that has a shot to go to the playoffs if everything falls their way the rest of the season. The division isn't great but this team is bad. They'll probably end up third in their division.

27. Seattle Seahawks - It was a tough loss, but the division is still wide open. Things could get ugly in Seattle really soon. There may be a Carroll/Barkley reunion in Seattle on the horizon.

28. Miami Dolphins - I know they got embarassed by the Patriots, but the final score is misleading of the actual game. The Dolphins aren't that bad, nor are they that far away from contending for the playoffs. That being said, this is a team in transition and the fans understand that; Hence they probably won't sell out many games.

29. Cleveland Browns - Their season is on the line against the Colts this week. An easy 2-0 has quickly turned into doom for this franchise that simply can never catch a break. They can't protect Colt McCoy and that should make for an interesting matchup against the Colts All-Pro defensive ends. The loser starts thinking about next year.

The Dead

30. Indianapolis Colts - If Peyton Manning isn't the most valuable player in the history of the NFL then I guess I forgot my NFL history. This team is awful without Manning, who has been the heartbeat of that franchise since 1998. A loss on Sunday and Caldwell, the Polians, and the great Donald Brown will start putting their homes up for sale, and Gruden and Fischer will start bidding on who gets to coach Act III of Manning's career.

31. Denver Broncos - The Broncos season looks over. Orton's red zone offense issues have continued. John Fox is too conservative and uncreative to go with Tim Tebow, but if anyone in Denver could raise the dead, it'd be Tebow.

32. Kansas City Chiefs - I knew they'd be bad, I just didn't know how bad. They're first overall pick bad.

2011 Season Predictions

Making predictions before an NFL season usually results in one and only one thing: looking stupid. More than any other league, the NFL is close to impossible to predict, given there will always be four or five teams that completely surprise us. Who thought the Chargers would miss the playoffs last year and the Chiefs would make it? How many people thought the Bucs would have the sixth best record in the NFC? Did anyone with common sense really predict the Raiders to go 6-0 in the AFC West last year?

Most people's predictions look like clones of the previous season. I'll use some knowledge of football history to predict turnover in teams.

AFC

For all the talk of turnover, the AFC has been pretty consistent with a majority of the teams they send to the playoffs. Over the past three years the Jets, Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens have pretty much steered the conference, with only the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Titans snatching up a playoff run each in that three year span.

Out west I feel completely confident predicting the Chargers. I love their schedule, and I think this is the year that they land the one seed again.

Up north I think the Browns have a chance, but they'll fall short to the Ravens who will finally get a playoff home game for the first time since 2006 (pretty crazy for a team that has played seven games since that divisional round loss to Indianapolis in the '06 playoffs).

Down south I feel confident eliminating Tennessee and Jacksonville, and as of this moment in time I honestly believe Peyton Manning will be ready to go week one, if he is I'm riding the Colts to another division title, if he's not than I think this may be the year the Texans break away. The Texans defense is somewhat improved, but look out for the Colts defense to be vastly improved.

Finally, the east could be a three team race this year. I don't love New England's off season moves, but I love their head coach and think that the Dolphins and Jets don't have it to overtake the Pats just yet.

For the AFC wild cards I like the Browns and the Texans. I know it sounds outrageous but if you look at their schedules, they're pretty favorable. If Peyton Manning is injured for a significant time, I'd put the Jets in the wild card with the Texans winning the division.

WILD CARD WEEKEND

Colts/Texans over Browns

Patriots over Jets/Texans

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Colts/Texans over Ravens

Chargers over Patriots

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Chargers over Colts/Texans.

So that's where I stand on the AFC. I've got the San Diego Chargers finally breaking through, in an AFC title game that will undoubtedly stage two hilarious head coaches.

NFC

Turnover in the NFC is constant. In 2010 only the Saints, Packers, and Eagles repeated as playoff participants, as opposed to the AFC's Patriots, Jets, Ravens, and Colts. In 2009 only the Cardinals, Vikings and Eagles repeated as playoff participants. In 2008, same song different chorus with only the Giants returning to the playoffs. In 2007 the Cowboys, Giants and Seahawks returned to the playoffs, and in 2006 only the Seahawks, Giants, and Bears returned to the playoffs. Do you get where this is going? Usually three teams return to the playoffs in the NFC, with the exception to the rule being less than three, not more.

Out west I like the Rams. I think the best quarterback will win this division, so it should come down to Arizona and St. Louis. I think the Rams have the defense, but I won't be shocked if the Cardinals return to the playoffs.

Up north, I think the Packers will return to the playoffs, but health will play a large part in the puzzle. The hunger for a ring isn't there, and last year they took a beating. I think Minnesota will be back, the Lions will be solid, and the Bears are destined for last place in the division.

Down south I love the Saints and hate the Falcons chances. The Bucs will trend south, and the Panthers will be a top five pick.

Finally, out east I'm not buying the Eagles, but I'm buying the Cowboys instead. I love the fact that it's been a quiet offseason for Dallas, with the team getting ready for the return of Tony Romo. The Cowboys were hot at the end of last year, and I think that'll carry over into a division title.

The Eagles will make the playoffs as a wild card and they'll be that third repeat team in the playoffs, while either the Vikings or Lions will be the sixth. Gun to my head right now I'll take the Vikings.

WILD CARD WEEKEND

Eagles over Rams

Packers over Vikings

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Cowboys over Eagles

Saints over Packers

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Saints over Cowboys.

I think that the Saints get back to the Super Bowl and Drew Brees has the ultimate chance in NFL history to get revenge. I think that the Saints will beat the Chargers and the NFC will win their third straight Super Bowl.

Here's where I think the awards will stand:

Comeback player: Tony Romo
Coach of the year: Leslie Frazier
Offensive player of the year: Adrian Peterson
Defensive player of the year: Ndamukong Suh
NFL MVP: Philip Rivers
Super Bowl MVP: Drew Brees

Other bold predictions:

AFC Pro Bowl QB's: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers... BUT the game ends up being played by Colt McCoy, Matt Schaub, and yes... Tim Tebow.

NFC Pro Bowl QB's: Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees... But the game ends up being played by Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford.