Are We At The High Water Mark of Tim Tebow's Professional Career?

The biggest story of the 2011 NFL season has been Tim Tebow. Since the preseason, Tebow has consumed the national newspaper headlines, the blogosophere, and every television network that covers the NFL, or sports in general for that matter. Considering all that's gone on this NFL season with headlines such as a lock out, Peyton Manning's potentially career ending injury, an undefeated Green Bay Packer team that looks scarier than the 2007 Patriots could have ever dreamed of becoming, the turmoil in Philadelphia, and the reemergence of the San Francisco 49ers, it's pretty impressive that Tim Tebow has been the consummating story of this season.

It began in training camp with the debate over whether or not Tebow or Orton should be the Broncos week one starter. Eventually, coach John Fox declared Orton to be the starter and every news media outlet reported that Tebow couldn't even make second string, losing that right to former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn. Fans who don't watch the preseason but read distorted headlines found this information to be humorous, and eventually Tim Tebow became a punchline for the casual fan.

Then, in case you missed a bulk of the summer Tebow bashing, Merril Hoge stepped in to make sure you caught up in time for the preseason.

For those unfamiliar with Hoge, he was an NFL player who spent seven seasons as a fullback with the Pittsburgh Steelers and five games with the Chicago Bears before injuries and ineffectiveness lead to his retirement. Hoge was an average blocker, though he did help Barry Foster become a Pro Bowl running back, and Hoge himself was more of a running fullback, and at times a very effective one. Nevertheless, today Hoge presents himself as a film-room guru and a quarterbacks expert on various ESPN shows, and this summer Hoge went out of his way to tweet "...It's embarassing to think the Broncos could win with Tebow!!"

Then came the actual preseason, where the Broncos quarterback situation was the most talked about positional battle in the NFL. In limited action, Tebow looked solid, though because none of his play was with the first team, the media and such found ways to ridicule Tebow's play, and began to designate a place for him on the "all-time busts" list.

But the fans in Denver and around the country never bought in, and after a week one loss at home to the Oakland Raiders where Kyle Orton was completely ineffective, it became even more apparent that despite what the media was saying, the fans who watch the NFL wanted to see Tim Tebow. A 1-3 start, a silly billboard outside of John Fox's office, a couple of plays at wide receiver, and talk about drafting Andrew Luck ensued until Tim Tebow finally got to play quarterback for the 2011 Denver Broncos, and Tebow put together a strong effort, almost guiding the Broncos to an improbably come from behind victory against then division leading San Diego. The Broncos were 1-4, but Tebow looked to be the Broncos starter.

Six weeks later the Broncos are 4-1, with victories of Miami, Oakland, Kansas City, and the New York Jets. Tebow's name has been dragged into MVP discussions, and at this point he's probably the second most deserving player of that award in the league behind Aaron Rodgers. Tebow is also probably to fill the third quarterback spot for the AFC in the Pro Bowl, and right now the Broncos sit one game out of first place in the AFC West.

He's become a cultural phenomenon. "Tebowing" has replaced "planking" as the thing drunks and tourists are most likely to do with their spare time. In a season with no Brett Favre and no Peyton Manning, Tebow has filled the void of "celebrity" athlete that Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have had trouble filling. He leads off every SportsCenter or affiliated show. He may not be the most beloved player in the NFL, but right now he's certainly the biggest, and most importantly he's backing up his celebrity with big, dramatic, wins.

Now the question is will it sustain? Intangibles have gotten Tim Tebow to this 4-1 record, but can intangibles take Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos to the playoffs? Conventional wisdom would say "no." Conventional wisdom also told us that a quarterback can't win going 2 for 8. Conventional wisdom told us that Kyle Orton gave the Broncos the best chance to win. Conventional wisdom told us that down 15 with less than three minutes to go on the road there was no chance the Broncos would beat the Dolphins. Conventional wisdom told us that Tebow couldn't win on the road in Oakland a week after getting embarrassed by the Detroit Lions. And of course conventional wisdom told us that "it's embarrassing to think that the Broncos could win with Tim Tebow!!"

Sometimes conventional wisdom is wrong.

Now I've always said, and I'll continue to say that I think Tim Tebow will be successful in the NFL lining up under center. He's not a tight end, he's not a full back. Tim Tebow is a quarterback. While he may not be a starting quarterback that can win a Super Bowl, Tebow is certainly a piece that a team can use to win one. A team like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New York Jets who could use Tebow in red zone and short yardage packages where Tebow could come in and move the chains or score, much like Tebow did on the 2006 Florida Gator national championship team. Perhaps a coach like Bill Belichick will see in Tebow the opportunity to fix a run game that has been plaguing his team in big games since the retirement of Corey Dillon. Perhaps Andy Reid or Sean Payton or some other coach not afraid to experiment will bring Tebow in. But the bottom line is that someone out there eventually will.

And before that happens Tebow first needs to come down from the high that he's on now. It would be great to see the 2011 Denver Broncos go from 1-4 to the playoffs. I think that will happen. After that, who knows? But one thing I can say is that thus far, conventional wisdom has been wrong. You can say NFL defenses will eventually catch up, "but catch up to what?" is what I'd reply. Tebow hasn't been playing quarterback well at all. Some might even arguing he's playing the worst quarterback that any QB with a 4-1 record has ever obtained. And conventional wisdom would state that Tim Tebow's passing will only get better as he sees more in game action.

Maybe this time conventional wisdom will finally be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Now Is Not The Time For Tebow To Start

Let's get one thing straight: I think that there is hope for Tim Tebow in the NFL. Tebow possesses the talent to win with a team in a way that few quarterbacks in the NFL can win; By exciting his teammates and getting other players around the league excited to play with Tim Tebow. You can honestly only say that about a few players around the league namely Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees (I exclude Peyton and Rivers because their teams don't tend to bring in outside offensive weapons though I'm sure people like Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith would love to see them lining up under center).

A team built around Tim Tebow can win. It can't win tomorrow, but over time a team built around Tim Tebow can win a Super Bowl. It would require bringing in players excited about Tebow's athleticism, who are willing to get used to a lefty quarterback. It would require an offensive line built to protect a quarterback like Tebow, and it would require a strong vertical passing game. These are the sort of things that made Carolina a good fit for Cam Newton and Philadelphia a good fit for Michael Vick. The franchises, the coaches, and the players are all willing to make the adjustments to facilitate towards an athletic quarterback. Everyone in the locker room understands that the quarterback may get creative on any given play, and the coaches design their plays around such creativity.

John Fox, the head coach in Denver has no creativity. He likes his offenses the old way. Run the ball up the middle and throw high percentage passes. Throughout his career he's gone to battle with quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, Vinny Testaverde, and Matt Moore. If this were an SAT question, which quarterback would follow that lineage, Orton or Tebow?

If you answered Orton, you would be correct.

Orton is as "safe" of a quarterback as there is in the league. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, there is little upside to Orton. Orton will be an adequate quarterback who if the parts around him are effective will win football games. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, Orton can indeed lose a football game for his team. Throughout his career Orton has been an awful red zone quarterback, and that sort of play has translated into what he has done in Denver. Orton is a career 79 quarterback rating and a losing record in Denver. But he's a John Fox type quarterback.

John Fox is trying to build a team that will win via defense and adequate offense. He wants to minimize risks on offense and win games 24-17. Fox wants to have big plays on offense in the passing game and he wants everything to go according to plan. That's why he didn't go after Tebow in 2010, and that's why he doesn't want Tebow in 2011. John Fox and Tim Tebow are simply a bad fit.

But eventually Tebow will have to start in Denver. The Broncos aren't going anywhere and whether it be week 3 or week 13, eventually Tebow will unseat Orton and that's where interesting thins will happen. Specifically, Broncos President John Elway sits in the stickiest seat in the cafeteria here.

If Tebow takes over for Orton and is horrible, there will be nothing lost. Tebow will be traded or cut and the Broncos can move on with their lives. If Tebow succeeds, than Elway and Fox will be forced into a marriage that neither party wants. Of course both party's want to win, but neither wants to restructure their "blueprint" around Tebow.

The best case scenario for the Broncos is that Tebow comes in, shows signs of success, but the Broncos still manage a top 10 pick in a draft with a few great quarterback prospects. Under this design, Broncos management can sell their fan base on the promise and poise of Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, or maybe even Ryan Tannehill and still trade Tebow to a team like Seattle, Miami, Oakland (though an in division trade could spell disaster), or Minnesota for a second round pick. All four of those teams are franchises willing to "take risks" and all four of those coaches aren't afraid of QBs with a tendency to ad lib.

In order for Tim Tebow to succeed in the NFL he needs to be given the right opportunity. Had Michael Vick been thrown into the Herman Edwards Jets he would have failed miserably. Tebow needs an environment where an athletic lefty Quarterback will be given the opportunity to make his own plays while surrounded by players who want to play with him. It will eventually happen in the NFL, just not Denver.

Weighing In On the Tim Tebow Media Storm

Tim Tebow is an "A-List" national sports star. You may not like to hear that, but he is. Tebow's celebrity is on par with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning, and surpasses that of virtually every other active NFL player. East Coast sports fans (I'm looking mostly at New England and New York) will respond to that statement with something along the lines of, "you gotta be kiddin' me!? Tebow is a bum. What has he eva dun?"

What has Tim Tebow ever done? At the University of Florida he won two national championships, was the first Sophomore to ever win the Heisman trophy, was a finalist for another two Heisman trophy's, had an 88 to 16 career TD to INT ratio, ran for 2,947 career yards and another 57 touchdowns, and was the first player since the 1950's to win the prestigious Maxwell Award twice; an award given out to the best overall player in college football. If you don't watch college football then you don't appreciate Tim Tebow's greatness, the same way where if you don't watch the NBA you don't appreciate Dwight Howard's greatness. Bottom line is that the greatness is there, and Tim Tebow did more for the popularity of college football on the national stage than any player in the history of the sport. College success does not mean Tebow will have NFL success, but it explains his vast popularity without going to East Coast media route and attributing it entirely to southern Christians.

And now there's a media fire surrounding reports in Denver that Tim Tebow is going to again enter the regular season as the backup quarterback for the Broncos, but the truth is that this really isn't that big of a deal. This doesn't mean that Tim Tebow is a bust at the pro level, it doesn't mean that Tebow will never start a game as pro. The only thing that this means is that in week one, Denver will be starting Kyle Orton at quarterback because they believe he gives them the best chance to win.

Last year Tim Tebow started three games for the Broncos, throwing for 650 yards, rushing for 200, with five passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Broncos went 1-2 in those three games which took place in a season where they went 4-12. For a rookie quarterback, those are above average numbers (if you want to use fantasy sports as a means to understand those numbers, Tebow was the leading fantasy QB for the combined weeks of 15-17 last year), and if you've had an opportunity to watch the games in which Tebow played in, there was a certain energy surrounding a lifeless team that didn't exist before.

I understand where Brandon Lloyd is coming from with his frustration surrounding Tebow vs Orton. The fans, the media, and even some players and coaches want to see what Tim Tebow can do in large part because he is already an "A-List" sports celebrity. Some people may read into Lloyd's frustration as a sign that Tebow is an inferior player to Kyle Orton. That may be the case, but what I take from it is that Lloyd wants to know who the QB is going to be because he needs to prepare. One thing that no one is really talking about in this is the fact that Tim Tebow is a left quarterback, and when you have a lefty quarterback, especially a young one, players need time to adjust because the ball is going to be coming at them from a different angle. Not to mention that Tebow's style is drastically different than Kyle Orton's.

When Steve Young, a lefty QB with mobility, took over for Joe Montana, a righty QB with little mobility, there was a learning curve early on, and at times the 49ers players were completely out of sync on offense. Last year, Michael Vick was successfully able to acclimate to the Eagles offense, but he had already been on the team for two seasons, including one full offseason, not to mention the players were used to Donovan McNabb's big arm and ability to throw outside the pocket.

Tim Tebow is probably not ready to be an NFL starting QB, but it doesn't mean that he will never be. I'll also go on the record and say that I believe Tebow will start more than three games for the Broncos this year, because once the Broncos end up 2-5 or 3-6, there will be no reason to stick with Orton. Kyle Orton is a nice quarterback with a career 11-17 record in Denver. He has put up some gaudy numbers the past two seasons in Denver, numbers that Tebow will likely never be able to put up, but I firmly believe that Tebow could put up better numbers than 11-17, and he has done nothing to prove otherwise. Not in college, not in the pros, not in practice, not in the locker room.

Whatever Tim Tebow does is news, and it will continue to be news because it gets ESPN, NFLN, and all the sports blogs, radio shows, and websites great ratings. He will never be Drew Brees, but a franchise would dumb to ask him to be. What Tim Tebow has the potential to be is Vince Young with a good head on his shoulders, and for all the headaches that Vince Young created, he has a much better career winning percentage than Kyle Orton.

Thanksgiving Game Recap

I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving filled with fun and good memories, because the NFL games were pretty forgettable.

As expected the Packers and Cowboys dismissed the Raiders and Lions. The Lions looked good early, the Raiders never looked good, but as we all knew would be the case when we looked at the Thanksgiving day schedule back in August; the Cowboys the Packers dominated.

Fantasy football fans were left satisfied, as well. Calvin Johnson scored, Romo and Rodgers produced, Miles Austin produced, in leagues with IDP's Charles Woodson gave a lot of teams 40+ points.

But unless you were sitting in front of your team praying for Woodson tackles, Austin receptions, or Rodgers touchdowns, the early and middle games were pretty much useless.

That being said I don't believe in getting rid of Detroit and Dallas on Thanksgiving. It's tradition. The NFL needs to preserve it's tradition as we move towards a golden age, unless there will be nothing to keep it on top (Baseball and Basketball do a tremendous job reminding us of yesteryear).

The late game was a different story. People actually wanted to watch that game, but few were able to. Luckily, being in New York for the Thanksgiving extended weekend, I was able to catch the game.

First of all, don't bury the Giants yet. Though they didn't look good yesterday, they were close to looking great. A lot of mistakes by the young receiving and running back group made Eli look pretty bad. The real worrisome unit was the offensive line. Eli has been spoiled by having an elite offensive line since 2005, but that's not the case anymore. That's a unit that needs to enter 2010 looking to rebuild.

As does the Giants defense. The Giants defense isn't what it was in 2007. Osi looks soft, and Tuck is still hurt after Flo-Adams cheap shot in week 1. Luckily for the Giants they host Philly and Dallas, and Romo still has a really tough December in front of him.

If the Giants want to make the playoffs Eli is going to have to carry that team and prove that he belonged on my Hall of Fame list (because I know Eli thinks about Funk Football every time he enters the huddle).

As for the Broncos? Well they shut people like me up for at least another week. At 7-4 they're in pretty good shape in an AFC that's really top heavy. They have also reawakened their division hopes, but that may be a pipe dream. They still have Kansas City twice and Oakland once, but road trips to Indianapolis and Philadelphia may be the cripple in their division push.

On the plus side, the Chargers still have Cincinnati, Dallas, and Tennessee on their schedule, as well as a pesky Redskins team. Game for game the Broncos have the more favorable schedule.

But the 6 seed in the AFC seems more likely for the team that started 6-0. What will the 6 seed get Broncos? Probably a road game against San Diego or New England.

In other words, they want the division.

AFC Division Winners Are Set

I'm calling it now. I don't care if Denver collapsed last year; I don't care that Indianapolis has two to go with the Texans; I don't care if the Jets have the tiebreaker right now over New England, who also have two to go with Miami; and I don't care if Cincinnati have the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh right now.

It's week 7 and the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, and Broncos have assured themselves at least one home game in the playoffs each.

Obviously the easiest team to guarantee this luxury to right now is Indianapolis. The Colts are 6-0 and if you look at their schedule anything more than three losses would be considered tragic for this teams psyche (unless loss four comes in week 17 after home field is wrapped up of course). The Colts host New England who have lost to Indianapolis four of the last five times these teams met, including the 2006 AFC Championship game, they host Denver, and they have to go to Baltimore, who haven't beaten the Colts since the beginning of the decade. The Colts also have two games with Houston and one game with Jacksonville remaining. 14-2 seems likely here.

The Broncos have impressed everyone all year. They've beaten New England, Dallas, and San Diego, teams who were supposed to put the Broncos in their place, and they currently have a defense that looks phenomenal. Kyle Orton is doing a great job and for the first time since 2005 the Broncos look like a serious AFC contender. I know this franchise collapsed last year down the stretch but this is a different team. It won't take much more than 4 more wins this year to wrap up the AFC West, and with Washington, Kansas City x2, and Oakland on their schedule, it'll come down to beating the Giants, Chargers, or Steelers at home, or the Colts, Ravens, or Eagles on the road. 11-5 seems like the right record for this team.

The Patriots will be back in the playoffs this year after being left out in 08 despite an 11-5 record. This Patriots team is looking a lot like the 08 Patriots who beat up on the bad teams and lost their five regular season games to the Dolphins, Jets, Colts, Chargers, and Steelers; all playoff contenders. So far the Patriots have lost to the Jets and Broncos; but the rest of the season doesn't look to bad; Miami 2x, New York Jets, @ New Orleans, and @ Indianapolis are the only scary games left on the schedule. Chances are this team finished 11-5 or 12-4; enough to win the AFC East in 2009.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the trickiest team of the bunch. They currently sit in a tie for the AFC North this week, and at 4-2 they host undefeated Minnesota before heading into a a bye week. After that the schedule picks up where it left off with a lot of cold weather games versus tough teams. Working in Pittsburgh's favor is that Cincinnati has to travel to Pittsburgh in week 10, and the team still has two to go with 3-3 Baltimore. If the Steelers come out of those three games with a 2-1 record they'll win the division. I think they'll do just that and with an 11-5 record win the AFC North.

The biggest game to decide playoff seeding may be the week 9 matchup of Pittsburgh @ Denver. This game could likely be the difference between a two seed and a four seed for these teams. Denver currently holds the tiebreaker over New England thanks to a head to head victory.

In week 10, the Patriots will travel to Indianapolis to continue arguably the decades best rivalry. This time a loss may mean the difference between the Patriots being the one seed and being the four seed. If the Colts win this one then they're in great shape to get a first round bye for only the third time this decade despite going to the playoffs in a league record 9 out 10 seasons.

It's also important to note that all four of these teams have intertwined in rivalries this decade. In 2003 and 2004 the Colts beat the Broncos in the playoffs before losing to the Patriots. In 2001 and 2004 the Patriots beat the Steelers in the AFC Championship game. In 2005 the Broncos beat the Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. That same round the Steelers would beat the Colts en route to beating the Broncos the next week. In 2006 the Colts beat Patriots in the AFC Championship game. In 2007 as part of their undefeated regular season New England defeated both the Colts and the Steelers. In 2008 as part of their "must win" push for the playoffs the Colts defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh and defeated the Patriots in a game that turned out to be a "loser stays home" game; the Steelers would go on to win the Super Bowl though.

These four franchises account for eight of the leagues past twelve Super Bowl champions. Chances are that after this year that number is going to be nine out of the last thirteen.

We'll find out this January.