The AFC Playoff Mess: Will the Bengals and Patriots "Lay Down?"

As you may have heard, the Steelers LaMarr Woodley believes that the Bengals and the Patriots will not try their hardest to win their games this Sunday in order to prevent the Steelers from making the playoffs.

And to be honest, if I were a member of the Bengal or Patriot organizations I'd encourage that very action.

The AFC playoffs, if the Patriots and Bengals lose on Sunday, mixed with a Ravens win over Oakland, will look like this:

6. Baltimore @ 3. New England
5. New York @ 4. Cincinnati

Obviously New England will lose their game to Houston for two reasons; first off, they don't want to play the Steelers, second, they would much rather play the Jets than the Ravens in the first round.

So essentially, New England will be putting their eggs in the basket of the Bengals attempting to win in order to get the number 3 seed. But the Bengals have the benefit of playing the night game, they'll see what happens before their game, and they will be able to know that if they lose they play the Jets in the first round.

It's not a shot on the Jets as much as it's strategy. Obviously the Jets are a very capable team; they have a great running game, a solid offensive line, and a contending defense. The reasoning is, not to anger the Jets fans out there, that the Jets quarterback is really, really, really, bad (compared to the 11 other Quarterbacks in the playoffs). Why would you want to play the Ravens or the Texans or the Broncos or (heavens forbid) the Steelers, when you could play the Mark Sanchez lead New York Jets.

A lot of people also believe the Colts pursuit (or lack there of) of perfection ended purposely to the Jets for this reason. Bill Polian is no idiot, he got all his numbers and figures in before kickoff with the Jets on Sunday and realized that if things play out the way he expects them to (which seems almost definite now) the Colts would be guaranteed to host either the Ravens, the Bengals, or the Jets in the divisional round.

Since the Tony Dungy era began in 2002, the Colts have played those teams a combined 14 times, and have only one true loss (Sundays game to the Jets does not count) to those teams, a 41-0 2002 Wild Card loss to the Jets. Obviously, if given the opportunity to play one of those three teams or the New England Patriots or Pittsburgh Steelers, Polian would know what the correct answer is.

The only thing that's guaranteed in the NFL is that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, but what the Colts, Patriots, and Bengals will do in letting the Jets make the playoffs, and keeping the Steelers out, is ensure the easiest route to Miami.

For the Patriots, that route will include (if things stand) Baltimore, San Diego, and Indianapolis consecutively (that's brutal). For the Bengals, their route will include New York, then a trip to Indianapolis, which if they get through they'll likely have to travel back to San Diego. And for the Colts, they sit pretty with a bye, then play either the Ravens, Jets, or Bengals before playing one of their two biggest rivals in the AFC Championship game.

I guess Herm was wrong, you don't always play to win the game.

Curtain Call in Pittsburgh

Remember in the offseason when the Steelers came really close to signing Colts Center Jeff Saturday? Remember how they were going to move him to guard?

Do you think the Steelers wish Saturday had decided to leave Indianapolis after all? The answer is a resounding "absolutely!"

Saturday is in the middle of another Pro Bowl season, on a 12-0 team, as a vital piece of the protection that has catapulted Peyton Manning towards (perhaps) his fourth MVP trophy. The Steelers offensive line on the other hand has been relatively brutal while the Steelers have limped to a 6-7 record, including embarrassing losses to the Browns and Raiders.

The offensive line is just one of the issues in Pittsburgh.

Remember when it was announced that Troy Polamalu got hurt and everyone in the media insisted the Steelers would be able to move forward without him? After all, they had James Harrison and company to carry the load. Yeah, that turned out to be false as well.

It turns out the Polamalu is in that elite level of the elite level of NFL players; also known as the list of players that are absolutely essential to a team winning important games. A list that doesn't, and never has, included names like Tom Brady, LaDanian Tomlinson, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, Bob Sanders, and Chris Johnson. Think about that for a second. That's how important Troy Polamalu is: Peyton Manning, Larry Fitzgerald, and Ray Lewis status.

In other words, Polamalu are the Steelers identity rather than just a great player. Similar to how Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis, and Larry Fitzgerald are their teams identities.

And the Steelers problem goes a little deeper than just the poor offensive line, and the absence of Troy Polamalu.

Truth be told, the Steelers haven't exactly been a model of consistency this decade. As opposed to their rivals; the Patriots and Colts, for an elite team the Steelers have been relatively erratic. Take a look at how their decade has played out since 2001 when this second Steeler run began.

2001: 13-3, L in Conference Championship vs New England.
2002: 10-5-1, L in Wild Card round vs Tennessee.
2003: 6-10, Missed playoffs.
2004: 15-1, L in Conference Championship vs New England.
2005: 11-5, Won Super Bowl.
2006: 8-8, Missed playoffs.
2007: 10-6, L in Wild Card round vs Jacksonville.
2008: 12-4, Won Super Bowl
2009: ?, Missed playoffs?

In other words, the Steelers are always in contention, but never duplicate the same kind of effort in back to back seasons the way the Patriots and Colts have.

In other words Steeler fans, this isn't a players issue, it's not a one year issue, it's a franchise issue. The team is unable to put together back to back season efforts.

On the positive side, your team, (unlike at least 26 of the teams in the NFL) is a legitimate Super Bowl contender every season.

Expect the Steelers to be back in 2010.

Injuries Are Piling Up: How It Shapes the Playoff Picture

"Hot and Healthy." Those two words have replaced the phrases "best team," and "most talented" when it comes to who often wins the Super Bowl.

The NFL presents its players with a very long season is you really think about. To get to the Super Bowl a team usually needs to play at least 18 games; in the 00's a lot of team have had to play 19 just to get there; changing the strategy from "win all your games from September to December and you'll be fine in January" to "make sure these guys are given every sort of medication there is to make sure they can play on Sunday."

The 2005 season was really where this strategy all began; In October the Chicago White Sox won the World Series after having a miserable final stretch of the regular season. The White Sox were able to stay healthy, and get hot at the right time though, which lead them to a Championship.

Meanwhile in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts were off to an epic 13-0 start, while the Steelers would need to win their next three games just to get into the playoffs. After a loss to the San Diego Chargers in week 15, the Colts decided to coast through the rest of the season; benching a majority of their starters; essentially giving their key players a month off before their next important game.

The Steelers on the other hand got hot. They won the last three games of the season by a combined point differential of +70, and went into Cincinnati and beat them up Wild Card Weekend. On January 15, 2006 the Steelers would head to Indianapolis in a game that would change coaching strategy for the rest of the decade.

The game began with the fresh but out-of-sync Colts struggling to put a drive together while the Steelers were able to put up a quick 14. The first half would end with a 14-3 score in favor of Pittsburgh.

In the third quarter the Steelers put together what looked like a crippling drive to make the score 21-3 in favor of Pittsburgh. In the fourth quarter Indianapolis's' offense would finally find it's rhythm, putting up 15 unanswered points, but would fall a Mike Vanderjagt missed field goal away from advancing in the playoffs.

The fourth quarter of that game proved who the "best team" and the "most talented team" was that day, but the "hot and healthy" team went on to win.

On the other hand, Bill Belichick's 2007 Patriots grinded, and grinded, and grinded down the stretch to a perfect 16-0 record, and grinded through two tough playoff games to finish the season 18-0, before meeting the New York Giants, who were hotter, healthier, and younger than the Patriots. Without a doubt the Patriots were "more talented" and the "better team," but the wear and tear of the 18 game schedule put it's toll on New England's ancient defense and offensive lines. In the fourth quarter, the Giants young offense exposed the exhaustion of New England's defense and picked up a touchdown. In the following drive New England's offensive line totally collapsed letting Brady hit the ground on four straight plays. The Giants would be named Super Bowl XLII champions.

So what teams lurking around right now are healthy?

Early in the season the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers all picked up injuries that the media and fans viewed as "crippling." Since then the Colts and Steelers have gotten significantly healthier, while all three have continued to bench key players each week. Though these are probably the three teams in the NFL that need to be healthy the least to win the Super Bowl, all three are looking to be in good shape come January; it's just a matter of getting hot.

In the NFC the Saints are relatively very healthy; especially when you consider many of their key players (Shockey, Colston, Bush, Vilma, even Brees, have had injury problems in the past). With a roster loaded with that many "injury prone" players though, you have to wonder how much longer this could last.

For the second season in a row the New York Giants are feeling the wrath of their previous season. Thus far Eli Manning and Justin Tuck, the leaders on each side of the ball, have suffered injuries that could nag them for the duration of the season. Meanwhile the Dallas Cowboys have stayed healthy and are just getting hot. Despite a week 1 loss at home to the Giants, the Cowboys are currently in first place in their division while the Giants are in third. The Eagles, as usual, are winning despite key injuries, but this team should be healthy come January.

In 2008 Brett Favre had the New York Jets in similar shape to what he has the Minnesota Vikings currently are. At 8-3, Jets fans were ready to start booking their trips to the Super Bowl, unfortunately Favre's arm fell off in the later months of the season. Will that happen this year? For one, Favre is asked to do a lot less in Minnesota than he is in New York, and playing in a dome is a lot easier than playing in the Meadowlands. But you have to wonder if Favre has nine more games in him this season? It may be time to get him on a "pitch count" if the Vikings want to win when it matters. Same goes for Adrian Peterson.

Perhaps this seasons "hot and healthy" team to watch will be last years "hot and healthy" team; the Arizona Cardinals. Right now the Cardinals have been the poster children for inconsistency; just as they were in 2008. Chances are this team will be in the playoffs due to a weak division, and if they want to get back to the Super Bowl they're going to have to be "hotter and healthier" than everyone else.

Finally you have the San Diego Chargers who last year were able to get hot enough, but not healthy enough, to finally make the elusive run the Super Bowl. This season the Chargers are looking relatively healthy, but they've yet to get hot. It's going to be tough for this team come playoff time (if they make it) to advance, given they likely won't have the luxury of playing any games in San Diego's nice weather; thus making their health the greatest factor in finally advancing.

So when you line up the contenders (sorry Denver) this January look at who is healthiest, and then watch for them to get hot. Once you see any signs of heat rising, that's the team to watch.

AFC Division Winners Are Set

I'm calling it now. I don't care if Denver collapsed last year; I don't care that Indianapolis has two to go with the Texans; I don't care if the Jets have the tiebreaker right now over New England, who also have two to go with Miami; and I don't care if Cincinnati have the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh right now.

It's week 7 and the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, and Broncos have assured themselves at least one home game in the playoffs each.

Obviously the easiest team to guarantee this luxury to right now is Indianapolis. The Colts are 6-0 and if you look at their schedule anything more than three losses would be considered tragic for this teams psyche (unless loss four comes in week 17 after home field is wrapped up of course). The Colts host New England who have lost to Indianapolis four of the last five times these teams met, including the 2006 AFC Championship game, they host Denver, and they have to go to Baltimore, who haven't beaten the Colts since the beginning of the decade. The Colts also have two games with Houston and one game with Jacksonville remaining. 14-2 seems likely here.

The Broncos have impressed everyone all year. They've beaten New England, Dallas, and San Diego, teams who were supposed to put the Broncos in their place, and they currently have a defense that looks phenomenal. Kyle Orton is doing a great job and for the first time since 2005 the Broncos look like a serious AFC contender. I know this franchise collapsed last year down the stretch but this is a different team. It won't take much more than 4 more wins this year to wrap up the AFC West, and with Washington, Kansas City x2, and Oakland on their schedule, it'll come down to beating the Giants, Chargers, or Steelers at home, or the Colts, Ravens, or Eagles on the road. 11-5 seems like the right record for this team.

The Patriots will be back in the playoffs this year after being left out in 08 despite an 11-5 record. This Patriots team is looking a lot like the 08 Patriots who beat up on the bad teams and lost their five regular season games to the Dolphins, Jets, Colts, Chargers, and Steelers; all playoff contenders. So far the Patriots have lost to the Jets and Broncos; but the rest of the season doesn't look to bad; Miami 2x, New York Jets, @ New Orleans, and @ Indianapolis are the only scary games left on the schedule. Chances are this team finished 11-5 or 12-4; enough to win the AFC East in 2009.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the trickiest team of the bunch. They currently sit in a tie for the AFC North this week, and at 4-2 they host undefeated Minnesota before heading into a a bye week. After that the schedule picks up where it left off with a lot of cold weather games versus tough teams. Working in Pittsburgh's favor is that Cincinnati has to travel to Pittsburgh in week 10, and the team still has two to go with 3-3 Baltimore. If the Steelers come out of those three games with a 2-1 record they'll win the division. I think they'll do just that and with an 11-5 record win the AFC North.

The biggest game to decide playoff seeding may be the week 9 matchup of Pittsburgh @ Denver. This game could likely be the difference between a two seed and a four seed for these teams. Denver currently holds the tiebreaker over New England thanks to a head to head victory.

In week 10, the Patriots will travel to Indianapolis to continue arguably the decades best rivalry. This time a loss may mean the difference between the Patriots being the one seed and being the four seed. If the Colts win this one then they're in great shape to get a first round bye for only the third time this decade despite going to the playoffs in a league record 9 out 10 seasons.

It's also important to note that all four of these teams have intertwined in rivalries this decade. In 2003 and 2004 the Colts beat the Broncos in the playoffs before losing to the Patriots. In 2001 and 2004 the Patriots beat the Steelers in the AFC Championship game. In 2005 the Broncos beat the Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. That same round the Steelers would beat the Colts en route to beating the Broncos the next week. In 2006 the Colts beat Patriots in the AFC Championship game. In 2007 as part of their undefeated regular season New England defeated both the Colts and the Steelers. In 2008 as part of their "must win" push for the playoffs the Colts defeated the Steelers in Pittsburgh and defeated the Patriots in a game that turned out to be a "loser stays home" game; the Steelers would go on to win the Super Bowl though.

These four franchises account for eight of the leagues past twelve Super Bowl champions. Chances are that after this year that number is going to be nine out of the last thirteen.

We'll find out this January.