Super Bowl XLIV: The Final Word

The long season, all the stories, the countless debates, it all comes down to today. The top two teams for most of the 2009 season will be on the field when the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints kickoff from Miami. As far as the NFL goes, this is the way it should be.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have played each other three times in their careers. The first meeting was in 2004 when Peyton lead his team on a fourth quarter comeback, a game which he threw his record breaking 49th touchdown pass. The following year, Brees got the final word when he lead the Chargers to victory in a game that saw the Colts dreams of an undefeated season go down the toilet. The final meeting was the first game of the 2007 season where Manning and the Colts ripped apart a weak Saints defense 41-10, making the series Manning 2, Brees 1.

Today's game in entirely different. First of all, two of the games were Colts vs Chargers games. Second of all, the 2007 teams, though still very similar, are also pretty different. In a lot of ways that is what makes today's game so special; We're getting a match up we have never really seen before.

So today when you watch the Super Bowl, just enjoy the game. Whether it's a blowout or an all time classic, just stay in front of your television. Because either way, this is going to be a game that will be talked about for a long, long time. And even if it's not, it's been a great season.

NFL Super Bowl Pick

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts

If you haven't already, expect to hear thousands of predictions and picks for this weekends game. Some predictions will be good, others will be awful, and some will be confusing. If you have followed this blog all season you understand that I put a lot of thought into each of my picks and I try to play it as even as I possibly can.

For that very reason I spent the bulk of the 2010 season considering the New Orleans Saints the best team in the NFL. This assessment was made absolutely clear after the post-Thanksgiving edition of Monday Night Football where the Saints ravaged a New England Patriots team that was healthy and holding on to Super Bowl aspirations. After that game the Saints began to look beatable, almost falling to the Redskins and Falcons before finally losing at home to the Cowboys and on the road to the Bucs. The Saints would also lose their final game of the regular season to the Panthers, but we can't count that game given the Saints starters were mostly on the bench. With those three loses aside, the Saints were able to dominate the NFC for most of the 2010 season, and in turn became America's darlings.

The Colts of 2009 entered the season disrespected by the media and continue to be just that. Entering the season questions surrounded the franchise and whether or not they could win without retired Head Coach Tony Dungy and wide receiver Marvin Harrison. After getting manhandled by the Dolphins on Monday Night but still coming up with the win the Colts were written off as a "second class" team in the AFC behind the Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots. When the Colts beat the Patriots on Sunday Night football excuses were made. When the Colts decided to give up on their perfect season and choose health over 16-0 they were ridiculed by their fans, and everyone else's fans alike, even after Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker got injured to the point where it cost their teams playoff longevity. Entering the divisional playoffs many suspected the Colts would again be "one and done," entering the AFC title game the media and the Jets fans alike spent an entire week bashing the Colts. But all the 2009 Colts have done is win every game that they have tried to; Which is why they're in the Super Bowl.

One group of people have backed the Colts for pretty much all of the 2009: the bookies of the United States of America. Outside of their week three showdown with the Cardinals, those who set the lines for gambling on the NFL have favored the Colts in every game they have played in this year, and there's a reason for that. Bookies aren't in the business of losing money. It sounds stupid, but these people know what they're getting into when they move a line from -3.5 to -6.

I know that pointing to the bookmakers is dumb, but a huge jump like that deserved at least a little attention.

If I really want to point out a dumb, inconsequential statistic for you, it would be the curse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it's relevance in this game. Since 1976, their first year a franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never beaten the eventual Super Bowl champion. As I said earlier in this post, the 2009 Buc's have defeated the 2009 New Orleans Saints. If the Saints win this game they will become the first team to ever lose to the Buccaneers and win the Super Bowl in the same season. Like the 2009 Saints, the 2001 Rams got to the Super Bowl this decade in a season where they lost to the Bucs, and we all know what happened in that game.

Okay, enough of the issues that have nothing to do with this game.

This game is going to be a real treat because it's the first time that this generation of players can claim an undisputed champion. This decade I have had little to no problem with the champion crowned every year, but there has always been the proclamation "well if this team had played such and such." You can't make that argument this year. The Colts are 16-0 in games they have tried to win, the Saints are 15-2 in games that they have tried to win. Combined these two teams started 2009 27-0. Both were one seeds in their conferences and for the first time since 1993 the two one seeds are squaring off in the Super Bowl. In other words; We're finally getting a titanic bout for the Super Bowl.

The Saints enter this game with the more "high powered" offense. Like the 2001 Rams or the Colts teams of the early part of the decade, the Saints entire game plan runs through their offense. Their defense isn't bad, but it relies on turnovers and the fact that opposing teams are often playing from behind. This strategy makes for a strong pass rush and turnover driven secondary.

The Saints biggest strength is also their biggest weakness entering this game; All Pro Quarterback Drew Brees. Brees is without a doubt one of the best QB's in the NFL, but he also hasn't exactly played his best football in big games. In the NFC Championship game, both in 2006 and 2009 Brees has looked shaky. Brees' size, though not always an issue, can hurt the quarterback going against a defense that has done well taking away the big passing play in 2009. Overall the Saints will need to rely on Brees this Sunday to bring the city of New Orleans it's first championship, and that's a lot of pressure.

The Colts are certainly a more balanced team than the Saints, though the statistics don't always prove it. Joseph Addai hasn't had a lights out season in 2009, but he has quietly been one of the most productive backs in the league, at times willing the Colts offense to success. I wholeheartedly believe that Addai will have a positive impact on this game for Indianapolis, and he will be a key to victory.

On defense the Colts just need to do what they do. The Saints can score, and they probably will score on Indianapolis, the Colts just need to make sure that they don't lose their composure. Since 2005 this Colts defense has gone into every game like a fighter ready to take punches. This team has done amazingly adjusting throughout games and forcing turnovers; like in the 2006 and 2009 AFC Championship games. It will be very important for this Colts team to keep their composure after 20 yard receptions or back to back 6 yard runs.

The final key to the Colts winning their second Super Bowl since 2006 is their four time MVP quarterback Peyton Manning. In Super Bowl XLI Manning was the games MVP, leading his team to victory over a very good Bears defense. Since then, Manning has been called one of the more undeserving Super Bowl MVP's of the decade, and you know that bothers the inner historian in Manning. Manning can't let this control him though, and I'm sure he won't. At the end of the day Manning knows the two rings is more important than great stats in the Super Bowl. In Kurt Warner's last two Super Bowl appearances he had amazing stats but no hardware. Manning would much rather be on the Ben Roethlisberger side of the fence with two average performance and two rings.

There has been a lot of talk about this game coming down to who has the ball last. Maybe it will, though I doubt it. I have a feeling that this game will be close early, but come celebration time, you'll be seeing a lot more Blue and White in Miami than you will Gold and Black.

I'm taking the Colts to win the Super Bowl

Where Will History Place a Champion Saints Team?

There has been a lot of talk about the place of the 2009 Colts in the history books if they win Super Bowl XLIV, but what place would a Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints team hold in the record books?

Similar to Indianapolis the Saints started off the season incredibly hot, getting off to a 13-0 start before losing back to back games to the Cowboys and Bucs (their backups lost a third straight game to the Panthers) to finish the season 13-3. Unlike Indianapolis, the Saints actually tried to win in their two losses, but like Indianapolis there is no questioning who the best team in the Saints conference was in 2009.

It's rare to have a situation where two teams in one Super Bowl are playing each other for the spot of "best single season team of the decade," but that may be exactly what is on the line in Super Bowl XLIV. A lot of attention has been drawn to the 14-0 Colts, with their four time MVP quarterback and various other Hall of Fame players, but similar stories could be written about the 13-0 New Orleans Saints. Both teams have had exceptional seasons with about a dozen trademark moments on the field.

The 2009 Saints, if they beat Indianapolis, would have beaten the AFC #1 seed, the NFC #2 seed, and the defending NFC champion to win a franchises first Vince Lombardi trophy. With that sort of resume it will be difficult to keep the 2009 New Orleans Saints out of the top two Super Bowl champions of decade, behind maybe the 2004 New England Patriots. The Saints dominant offense would give the team a trademark unit, and their defense has enough of a face in Jonathan Vilma and Darren Sharper to give the 2009 Saints plenty of recognition in the history books. Not to mention a Super Bowl victory would put Drew Brees in the same sentence as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, at least for now.

We can talk for hours about what a win would do for the legacy of this Indianapolis Colts team, but the truth of the matter is, the game means just as much to the Saints. Though I honestly feel that the Colts have a much heavier boulder on their backs, I can't neglect the fact that this game means almost as much for a team that started 13-0.

What If The Colts Lose? Pt 3: Return to Miami

The 2009 Colts are one win away from going down as one of the greatest single season teams of all time. They'll join the 1972 Miami Dolphins, 1984 San Francisco 49ers, and the 1985 Chicago Bears in the discussion for what team was the single greatest team in NFL history.

What the 2009 Colts have working for them is the amount of adversity they have overcome. Whether it was replacing a Hall of Fame coach with a rookie head coach, replacing a Hall of Fame wide receiver, losing Anthony Gonzalez week one, losing Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson for the year, or facing media scrutiny for "giving up" on perfection, the Indianapolis Colts have faced adversity all season, and have overcome it each and every week.

Now, the Colts face their final test. Scrutiny for resting their players and the excuses of player injuries no longer exists, the goal is the same as it has always been for the Colts, win the Super Bowl or the season was a failure. Like the divisional round and the championship round, the Colts have a lot of pressure on their backs. In a lot of ways the pressure is off the Saints because they at least got to the Super Bowl. Of course the Super Bowl is the most pressure filled game one could ever be a part of, but there was such a sense of anxiety for New Orleans in the NFC Championship game, it sort of feels like a Super Bowl is just another game for them.

The Colts on the other hand need to win ring number two to get their core team listed in the annals of great teams in NFL history. The Colts of the 00's may have won more games than any team in any decade in the history of the sport, but their one ring to show for it is completely pedestrian. Considering the whole spygate scandal and what still has yet come from that episode, it's completely logical to consider the Colts, with their second ring, the team of the 00's. Personally, I'll still consider the 00's the Patriots decade, though their one more ring will eventually be evened out in time by the volume of Hall of Famers these Colts teams produce.

More so than anything for the Colts, that is what is on the line this week: Hall of Fame candidacies, legendary statuses, and most importantly; legacies. As it stands now, Manning Wayne, Saturday, and Freeney could probably punch their tickets to Canton now. A second Super Bowl ring for each and you could start to add their names to the All Time greats. A second ring could also do wonders for Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, and maybe even Gary Brackett's candidacy for the Hall of Fame. There's also Adam Vinatieri who may not even dress on Sunday, but with a win would get his fifth Super Bowl ring. For the Colts, a second Super Bowl would transform all of these all stars to all timers, the type of names we'll hear about for the next fifty years.

If the Colts lose on Sunday than it all takes a huge step back. Even if the Colts go on to win another Super Bowl with this core, the one loss will always resonate. The sort of loss that those 49ers, Steelers, and Cowboys teams never had. The difference between these Colts and these Saints may be that the Colts, more than any other franchise in the NFL, understand this. They understand that they're on the verge of transforming a franchise that was on the verge of moving in 1997 into a dynasty entering 2010.

In order to do that the Colts will need to do something they have already done once, win a Super Bowl in Miami with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. If Manning and the Colts succeed on Sunday, then the NFL may not only be a coronation for it's 44th Super Bowl champion, there may also be a coronation for their Gretzky, Jordan, Woods, or Ali; in other words their greatest of all time.

A loss, and Manning and the Colts take a huge step back. One that even Manning may not be able to come back from.

The Freeney Question

Right now the media is buzzing with Dwight Freeney stories, making the All Decade defensive end's ankle the biggest story of Super Bowl week.

Personally, I fully anticipate on Freeney participating in this Sunday's game, though it's impossible to expect him to be 100%. Some have called it a "miracle" if Freeney plays this week, but I wouldn't call it that. Freeney has done this before, he's done it this season. Dwight Freeney is a gamer, and he's going to make sure he can at least get in there a little bit.

If Freeney does sit, it would mean that the Saints would get a Colts defense without Marlin Jackson, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders. If the Saints heard that in week one they would take it in a second.

What the Saints, and most football fans don't understand is that the Colts defense is now, and always has been, a deep pool of similar players. Bob Sanders goes out, Melvin Bullitt steps in and pulls off a great season. Marlin Jackson goes down, Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey step in and do great. If Dwight Freeney goes down, the Colts trust that Raheem Brock and company can get the job done. Robert Mathis would flip over to Freeney's side for create better matchups for Brock.

What I expect to happen is for Freeney to play, but on limited downs. That would make the Colts defense a pass rush by committee.

With or without Freeney the Colts will have their hands full. This season against offenses in a similar range as the Saints the Colts let up points. The Pats scored on the Colts, the Texans scored on the Colts. The Colts let up points. Perhaps the best display of effort the Colts put on this year was against the Cardinals in week 3. In order to win this week the Colts are going to have to replicate that 31 to 10 effort to prevent Manning and the offense from being pressured into putting up points on every down.

Either way though, the Colts coaching staff is probably smart enough to know that blitzing and getting to Brees isn't going to be the easiest thing to do on every down. In order to beat the Saints, strong play from the secondary and ball control is probably more important.

Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints

So the field of 32 has narrowed down to two, and for the first time in two decades we're treated to the two undeniable best teams playing one another. I know I may have just offended some Chargers and Vikings fans, but the Colts and Saints both got to 13-0, and for most of the season looked unflappable.

The Colts handled the New York Jets today after a really close first half that saw the Jets go up 17-13 on Indianapolis. The Colts would dominate the second half and easily close out the Jets in the fourth quarter to win their second AFC title in four years.

The Saints won their first NFC championship today by beating a Vikings team that actually outplayed New Orleans today, but caused a lot of errors. All season we watched and waited for Brett Favre to implode and it finally happened today. For the second time in three seasons the final play of Favre's career was a game losing interception.

The Colts versus the Saints should be a dream come true for football fans. Both teams have great offenses lead by two of the leagues premiere quarterbacks; Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Each teams defense has their strengths and weaknesses. On paper the match looks even, but the intangibles tell a different story.

Since the 2005 season, the year that Indianapolis succeeded New England as the elite franchise of the NFL, the Colts haven't lost very many games (excluding week 16 and 17 contests). When Peyton and company have lost it's been mostly to teams that run the 3-4 defense such as Dallas in 2007, the Chargers in 2005, 2007-08, the Steelers in 2005, Packers in 2008, and the Patriots in 2007. Other than divisional opponents in late 2006 and early 2008, the only 4-3 team that has been successful against the Colts since 2005 are the Chicago Bears of 2008.

That's correct. The ONLY 4-3 team outside of the AFC South to defeat the Indianapolis Colts since 2005 are the 2008 Chicago Bears. Take into account that (excluding AFC South opponents, though what am I hiding? Since 2005 the Jaguars are 2-8, Titans are 2-8, and Texans are 1-9 vs. Indianapolis. That's a 25-5 record against pretty good 4-3 teams) the Colts have played over twenty 4-3 opponents.

So that's going to be the key to victory for the 2009 New Orleans Saints; replicating the 2008 season opener where the Chicago Bears beat Indianapolis 29-13. That game Matt Forte ran for 123 yards, but the key to the Bears win was a Lance Briggs 21 yard fumble return.

You may call me crazy for bringing up this irrelevant game, but you need to learn from those who were successful in order to be successful yourself. I understand that the Colts played this game with an injured Peyton Manning, but still, it was a 4-3 having success against the Colts.

A game that the Saints will not want to repeat is the 2007 season opener, where the Colts dominated the saints 41-10. Though 2007 seems like a long time ago, the Colts will return seven starters on offense, and six starters on defense. The Saints will return six starters on offense, but only four starters on defense. More or less, these two teams are very similar to the two teams that met in 2007. At least personnel wise.

Systematically, neither team should not expect anything they hadn't seen before. The Saints do what the Saints do and the Colts do what the Colts do. The winner of this game will be the team that does what they do better in fourteen days.

What a Super Bowl Victory Would Mean For Each of The Remaining Franchises?

With twenty four hours remaining until kickoff of championship weekend, the fans of the final four franchises, the Jets, Colts, Vikings, and Saints, are likely both nervous and excited today.

Each franchise has something different invested in winning a Super Bowl, and it's important to explore what a Super Bowl victory might mean for each franchise.

New York Jets
The Jets are opening a new stadium stadium next year and need to sell a lot of Personal Seat License's (PSL). Though this playoff run has helped sell plenty of new ones, plenty remain. A Super Bowl victory for the Jets would absolutely energize the New York market enough to not only sell every PSL available, but also create a waiting list like there was at the old Giants stadium.

A Super Bowl win for the Jets would also give the franchise some punching room in the debate between New York teams. Since the early 1980's the Jets have been the undeniable second-best-team-in-New-York, but a Super Bowl victory would put the Jets in the same sentence as the Giants. It wouldn't put the Jets above the Giants, who went to two Super Bowls in the 00's and won one in 2007, but it would even the debate out for now. Though it sounds childish, this competition is important for revenue, more specifically merchandise sales.

A win for the Jets would heal a lot of the franchises post-Namath wounds; drafting Ken O'Brien over Dan Marino, missing out on Brett Favre in 1991, missing out on Peyton Manning in 1997, Bill Belichick resigning at Jets head coach to coach the Patriots in 2000, Mo Lewis knocking Drew Bledsoe out in 2001, the Favre debacle of 2008, and all of Chad Pennington's injuries just to name a few. A win in Super Bowl XLIV would heal many, if not all, of those wounds.

The 2009 Jets would also be remembered as the first team to win a Super Bowl with a rookie; something that Marino, Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco (other impressive rookie QB's) could not do. That alone would make a Super Bowl for the Jets this year even more significant.

Indianapolis Colts

Even before Peyton Manning came to town, the Colts were considered one of the greatest franchises in the history of the sport, it just took Manning to make them relevant in Indianapolis. A win in Super Bowl XLIV would give the Indianapolis Colts their second Super Bowl, and the Colts franchise its third. Counting the Unitas pre-Super Bowl wins, it will give the Colts their fifth undisputed football championship.

A Super Bowl victory this year for the Colts would mean countless things historically; the Colts would have gone undefeated in every game that Peyton Manning played four quarters, and they would likely change the way that teams went about handling the final weeks of the regular season for a long time. A win would also put the Colts in the elite company of teams with three or more Super Bowls, and would put the franchise back into the mix of the top five franchises in the sport.

A win would also do wonders for Peyton Manning's career. Manning is widely considered the best player in the league right now, but a second Super Bowl ring mixed with his four MVP awards, would likely put him in the debate for the best ever. It would also solidify Manning as the player of the decade, and put the Colts in the discussion for team of the decade (though they would have one less ring than the Patriots, they would have more overall wins and two more playoff appearances).

Though it's probable a Super Bowl win wouldn't give the decade to the Colts franchise, it's an absolute truth that the 2009 Colts would be considered the best single season team of the decade, and amidst the all-time elite.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings are a championship-less franchise that has suffered more heartbreak than maybe any other franchise in the league. In the 1970's the Vikings lost four Super Bowls, and since then have failed to return, losing in the playoffs countless times since in the past 30 years. A Super Bowl win would do wonders for a Vikings fan base that has stayed loyal throughout the franchises existence.

Right now "wonders" may be what the Vikings need to stay in Minnesota. The team has what many consider to be "major" stadium woes, and no deal is in place to renovate the building or create a new one. In other words, the Vikings are in danger of moving to Los Angeles, but a Super Bowl victory this year may be able to prevent that. After all, when a team is winning no one talks about them moving.

A Super Bowl victory would also solidify the Vikings as a "major" franchise in the league. Historically the Vikings have always drawn well nationally, and adding a Super Bowl to the Vikings repertoire will add some validity to that stat.

A Super Bowl win for the 2009 Vikings would also be the bookend in Brett Favre's career that transforms him into the greatest of all time. Favre is already the most popular Football player to ever, winning his second Super Bowl with a franchise that has never won one would be an incredible achievement; especially since no QB has ever won a Super Bowl with two different franchises to begin with.

New Orleans Saints

Hurricane Katrina may seem like a long time ago, but to the people in New Orleans it's not. Not only would a Saints Super Bowl victory give the Saints their first championship, it would be the cities first major championship as well. For a city that has gone through what New Orleans has gone through this decade, a Super Bowl would mean a lot. There's not much else to say besides that.

Saints fans have been through a lot of bad times. In the past they have had some good players, sometimes even great players, but they were never able to get a team together. Finally, for the first time in franchise history, the Saints have a team that could contend. More than any of the four teams still alive, the Saints are carving out their franchises history right now; Because the history before 2006 was miserable.

For Drew Brees, a Super Bowl victory would add his name to the list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and put him right in the debate with Manning, Brady, and Roethlisberger. For some other Saints it would mean different things; Jeremy Shockey will no longer be the guy who helped the 07 Giants by getting hurt. Reggie Bush, if he continues to perform, will be worth his hefty contract. Marques Colston will have what all the receivers who make it to the Pro Bowl each year over him don't have: a ring. Pretty much the entire Saints team has something to prove with a Super Bowl win.

But then again, so does every player left in the final four. When it's all said and done, a champion will be named based on what team deserves it the most.

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

While everyone else considers divisional weekend "the most exciting professional football weekend of the year," for me nothing has ever come close to conference championship weekend; even if there are no games on Saturday.

This weekend we're in for a particular treat. Even if the games fail to be legendary, this will be a weekend that football historians will look back on because of the significance of the four quarterbacks involved.

Mark Sanchez is the fourth rookie quarterback to take his team to a championship game in the past 11 seasons (Shaun King 99, Ben Roethlisberger 04, Joe Flacco 08). Up to this point Drew Brees has been this generations Warren Moon; great stats, few important wins, a win this weekend would put Brees in an enetirely different category historically. Brett Favre and Peyton Manning are both trying to get ring number two; Otherwise known as the ring that would validify either quarterbacks claim as the best ever.

Even when the games don't have this sort of historical significance it's still a cool weekend considering the winner goes to the friggin' Super Bowl. That's why we watch right? To crown a champion.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts - In week 3 a Jets @ Colts AFC title game wouldn't have been quite the shocker it would have been entering week 16, the week the Colts gave up on their perfect season to avoid injuries, consequently allowing the Jets to "back in" to the playoffs.

Personally I loved the week 16 Jets @ Colts game because it added to the name Curtis Painter to the "all time most hilarious players in NFL history list." Other than that there is little to take from the outcome of that game.

This week, uneducated Colts fans and Jets fans have been at each others throats over the implications of that game. "We beat 'dem once, we can beat 'dem again," proclaim the Jets fans calling into WFAN NY, while Colts fans continue to defend (half-heartily) Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian's decision to pull Peyton and company.

Though the outcome of the game is completely useless, it may actually have lead to the deciding outcome of this game.

Peyton Manning is notoriously a film-hound. The guy, more than any quarterback in NFL history, lives in the film room. In 2 quarters and one drive in the third quarter, Manning was on pace to have the best game against the Jets defense of the season. The Jets were giving 110% with their playoff hopes on the line, but Manning was able to move the ball. Save for a few off-target throws. Manning and the Colts could have put the game away early.

Fast forward to wild card weekend. Reports were coming out all over the place that the Colts were firing on all cylinders at practice, practicing harder than any first-round-bye team has ever practiced. You know who the Colts were preparing for that week?

The New York Jets.

It turned out the Baltimore Ravens would come to town instead. Not exactly the worst thing for Manning. After all, if any team in the NFL resembles the Jets the most it's the Ravens: young QB not asked to do much, ridiculously talented running game, top tier defense.

The Colts beat the Ravens 20-3. From 2005 to 2008 when Ryan was defensive coordinator of the Ravens, Manning and the Colts beat the Ravens top tier defense 24-7 in 2005, 15-6 in 2006, 44-20 in 2007, and 31-3 in 2008. Obviously the Jets of 2009 are a different batch of players than those Ravens teams, but the looks will be similar. Simply put, it shows that Rex Ryan doesn't scare Peyton Manning.

Counting week 16, Manning has now had three weeks to prepare for the Jets number one ranked defense. If there is one player in the NFL you don't want to give time to prepare, it' Peyton Manning. The key to the Jets winning is going to be somehow creating something new to throw Manning off on a few plays that cause turnovers.

Peyton Manning is far from infallible. He can make mistakes and we've seen it this year. The key to a Jets victory will not be forcing those mistakes, but capitalizing on them. One way or another the Colts are putting at least twenty points on the board, the Jets are going to somehow have to match that number, and raise it by a few.

The wild card in this match up is the Colts defense. Last week they shot down a brilliant Ravens offense that ran all over the New England Patriots the week before. This season the Colts have been successful stopping the run by being persistent. In years past where the Colts would allow teams all the way down the field, now the Colts give every down 100%, forcing teams into red zone turnovers and field goals instead of touchdowns. If there's one thing the Jets cannot afford this week it's field goals. A great day of field goals equals only twelve points; a bad day for Peyton is 17 points.

In order for the Jets to get those points they're going to have to pass the ball in the red zone. Unfortunately for the Jets they'll be going up against the leagues top ranked red zone pass defense, with the leagues bottom ranked red zone quarterback.

When all is said and done it's going to be hard for the Jets to win this one. Cincinnati and San Diego featured favorable match ups against teams that aren't mentally or physically tough. The Colts are neither a favorable match up or soft. All season long the Colts overcame adversity, coming back from immeasurable deficits in games to win. They're going to win this one, too.

I'm taking the Colts at Home.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints and the Vikings both got off to hot starts in 2009 before limping into the playoffs. Fortunately for both teams, they ran into self-destructing teams at home last week, allowing both teams to advance to the conference finals. For both teams, this is their second trip to the conference finals this decade. Their combined conference championship record is 0-2 this decade, after Sunday that will change to 1-3.

The team that wins this game is going to be the team that plays better defense. It sounds simple but it's true. At times this season both teams have look incredible on defense, and at times both teams have looked miserable on defense. Naturally, the Vikings have the higher ranked defense so you would assume they'd win.

Not necessarily.

Having the better defensive unit and playing better defensively are two different things. The Saints defense will also be given a slightly easier task, considering the Vikings offense is undeniably less explosive than the Saints offense. The key to a successful defensive game for the Vikings is a strong offensive ground attack. If Favre starts throwing the ball, at some point he's going to make a turnover, and at some point he's going to force a quick three and out. Both situations favor the Sains immensely in this game.

The Vikings are going to need to control the ground, to control the clock, and keep Drew Brees off the field. That sort of tactic will add pressure to Brees and a young Saints team that the team is not used to. It will also open plenty of opportunities for Favre and the Vikings potentially dominant passing game.

To put it plainly, if Adrian Peterson is sick of hearing about how Chris Johnson is the best tailback in the NFL, this week would be a good time to shut that debate up.

For the Saints the key to victory will be putting the ball in Brett Favre's hands. Though forcing one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history to win a game doesn't exactly sound like the smartest idea ever, remember that in his 19 year career, Brett Favre has only one Super Bowl victory, and this decade is 0-6 in playoff berths ending with a Super Bowl berth. Favre has come out sour more often than not in big game situations this decade, and the Saints cannot be afraid of putting the ball in his hands if they want to win.

The second key for the Saints is going to be avoiding interceptions. All season Drew Brees was good with handling the ball. This Sunday he needs to be great. One turnover against the Vikings can be the difference maker in this game. Brees cannot fear the Vikings defensive line. At some point they're going to get to him, put him on his back, and make him wish he was still in San Diego. A sack is better than an interception, especially with an offense like the Saints where losing yardage doesn't exactly change the game plan on the following down.

This game will probably be competitive entering the final moments of the game, but I'm going to give the advantage to the team that puts up a better ground performance. For this game I'm going to assume that will be Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and the Minnesota Vikings.

I'm taking the Vikings on the Road.

Which Saints Team Will We Get on Sunday?

Over the course of the 2009 regular season, the New Orleans Saints became the most feared team in the NFL. They manhandled an undefeated New York Giants team, had a miraculous comeback against the Miami Dolphins, and on national television dominated the New England Patriots worse than any team had dominated the Patriots in a long, long time.

Then it looked as if the wheels were starting to come off. First, the Saints went to overtime with a weak Redskins team, then they let a Ryan/Turner-less Falcons team give them four quarters. Finally, the roof caved in against the Dallas Cowboys, who in week 15 handed New Orleans it's first loss. The Buccaneers would go on to embarrass a Saints team with everything to play, the next week the Saints would rest their starters and fall to the Panthers to end 2009 13-3, after starting 13-0.

If momentum and shifting identity was a question for one team entering the playoffs, it was the New Orleans Saints. The entire nation wondered aloud "what Saints team would we get on Saturday against Arizona?" After a 45-14 bruising of the Cardinals (and it could have been a lot worse if the Saints wanted it to be), the Saints shut up the momentum question.

But what about that identity question? Of the final four teams, the Saints are easily the scariest team remaining, mostly because opposing coaches don't know what team they'll get. Will they get the team that can run for over two hundred yards on you or the team that can pass for 500 on you? Will they be the defense that rattled Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Matt Ryan, or would they be the defense that allowed Dallas and Tampa Bay to have their way with them.

There's no denying the Saints have the potential to be a complete team, but it's also hard to argue the Saints as the most complete team in the playoffs. Actually it's a lot easier to discount the Jets passing offense woes and consider the Saints the least-balanced team remaining in the NFL playoffs.

The Vikings proved last week that they can rush the passer. If the Vikings can get pressure on Brees, and rattle the passing attack it's going to come down to the rushing attack of the Saints to win this game. Last week the Saints running game looked great against a weak Cardinals defense; meanwhile the Vikings run D looked pretty weak last week before the Cowboys offensive line imploded. In other words, going with the run against the Vikings may not be the worst tactic.

This weekends Saints-Vikings game is going to be decided in the first half, just like last weekends respective Saints and Vikings games. The play may be close, but the score probably won't be. The way both of these teams finished their seasons, it's hard to imagine both teams bringing their "A game" on Sunday. It's hard to trust Favre, but it's also hard to trust a team who flat out lost to the Buccaneers with home field advantage throughout the playoffs on the line.

We'll find out Sunday afternoon.

Saturday Night Football Preview

Similar to how I posted my picks for tomorrow night's game between the Colts and Jaguars early, I figured I'd post my prediction for Saturday night's game between the Saints and Cowboys as well.

In case you're wondering, the NFL made this schedule a long time ago. It's only a coincidence that both the Colts and Saints are 13-0 right now and making a run at history.

On to the game.

The Cowboys have dropped their last two games, at New York Giants and home to the Chargers, in close fashion. Though the media has made a big deal about Dallas starting December off 0-2, little attention has been given to how close the Cowboys have come to being 2-0.

Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-0 so far in December, with very close victories over the Redskins and Falcons, two below average teams. It take overtime and a referee's challenge for the Saints to beat the Redskins, and a Matt Ryan/Michael Turner-less Falcons were down a field goal inside the two minute warning.

Could this be the week where the Saints fortune finally runs out and the Cowboys finally catch a break?

Not so fast.

A quick look at the Saints 2009 schedule shows a team that beat the Eagles 48-22, the Giants 48-27, the Dolphins 46-34, and the Patriots 38-17. Those are the playoff teams on their schedule. The same schedule shows the Saints having close ones; 28-23 over the Rams, and the two aforementioned road wins against the Falcons and the Redskins.

In other words, the 2009 Saints have stepped up in the big games, and played down to inferior teams. In other words, the Saints play to their opponent.

Does this mean that the Saints are going to lose? After all, that would be playing to the Cowboys level in December, wouldn't it?

The Saints are going to win this game. They're at home, home field is still up for grabs in the NFC playoffs, and the Cowboys are going to have a tough time putting any pressure on Drew Brees (if DeMarcus Ware isn't ready to go).

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, that means they're a Giants win at Washington on Sunday away from falling to #7 in the NFC playoff depth chart. A.K.A they'll need help.

It's going to be a crazy three weeks.

I'm taking the Saints at Home.

Injuries Are Piling Up: How It Shapes the Playoff Picture

"Hot and Healthy." Those two words have replaced the phrases "best team," and "most talented" when it comes to who often wins the Super Bowl.

The NFL presents its players with a very long season is you really think about. To get to the Super Bowl a team usually needs to play at least 18 games; in the 00's a lot of team have had to play 19 just to get there; changing the strategy from "win all your games from September to December and you'll be fine in January" to "make sure these guys are given every sort of medication there is to make sure they can play on Sunday."

The 2005 season was really where this strategy all began; In October the Chicago White Sox won the World Series after having a miserable final stretch of the regular season. The White Sox were able to stay healthy, and get hot at the right time though, which lead them to a Championship.

Meanwhile in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts were off to an epic 13-0 start, while the Steelers would need to win their next three games just to get into the playoffs. After a loss to the San Diego Chargers in week 15, the Colts decided to coast through the rest of the season; benching a majority of their starters; essentially giving their key players a month off before their next important game.

The Steelers on the other hand got hot. They won the last three games of the season by a combined point differential of +70, and went into Cincinnati and beat them up Wild Card Weekend. On January 15, 2006 the Steelers would head to Indianapolis in a game that would change coaching strategy for the rest of the decade.

The game began with the fresh but out-of-sync Colts struggling to put a drive together while the Steelers were able to put up a quick 14. The first half would end with a 14-3 score in favor of Pittsburgh.

In the third quarter the Steelers put together what looked like a crippling drive to make the score 21-3 in favor of Pittsburgh. In the fourth quarter Indianapolis's' offense would finally find it's rhythm, putting up 15 unanswered points, but would fall a Mike Vanderjagt missed field goal away from advancing in the playoffs.

The fourth quarter of that game proved who the "best team" and the "most talented team" was that day, but the "hot and healthy" team went on to win.

On the other hand, Bill Belichick's 2007 Patriots grinded, and grinded, and grinded down the stretch to a perfect 16-0 record, and grinded through two tough playoff games to finish the season 18-0, before meeting the New York Giants, who were hotter, healthier, and younger than the Patriots. Without a doubt the Patriots were "more talented" and the "better team," but the wear and tear of the 18 game schedule put it's toll on New England's ancient defense and offensive lines. In the fourth quarter, the Giants young offense exposed the exhaustion of New England's defense and picked up a touchdown. In the following drive New England's offensive line totally collapsed letting Brady hit the ground on four straight plays. The Giants would be named Super Bowl XLII champions.

So what teams lurking around right now are healthy?

Early in the season the Colts, Patriots, and Steelers all picked up injuries that the media and fans viewed as "crippling." Since then the Colts and Steelers have gotten significantly healthier, while all three have continued to bench key players each week. Though these are probably the three teams in the NFL that need to be healthy the least to win the Super Bowl, all three are looking to be in good shape come January; it's just a matter of getting hot.

In the NFC the Saints are relatively very healthy; especially when you consider many of their key players (Shockey, Colston, Bush, Vilma, even Brees, have had injury problems in the past). With a roster loaded with that many "injury prone" players though, you have to wonder how much longer this could last.

For the second season in a row the New York Giants are feeling the wrath of their previous season. Thus far Eli Manning and Justin Tuck, the leaders on each side of the ball, have suffered injuries that could nag them for the duration of the season. Meanwhile the Dallas Cowboys have stayed healthy and are just getting hot. Despite a week 1 loss at home to the Giants, the Cowboys are currently in first place in their division while the Giants are in third. The Eagles, as usual, are winning despite key injuries, but this team should be healthy come January.

In 2008 Brett Favre had the New York Jets in similar shape to what he has the Minnesota Vikings currently are. At 8-3, Jets fans were ready to start booking their trips to the Super Bowl, unfortunately Favre's arm fell off in the later months of the season. Will that happen this year? For one, Favre is asked to do a lot less in Minnesota than he is in New York, and playing in a dome is a lot easier than playing in the Meadowlands. But you have to wonder if Favre has nine more games in him this season? It may be time to get him on a "pitch count" if the Vikings want to win when it matters. Same goes for Adrian Peterson.

Perhaps this seasons "hot and healthy" team to watch will be last years "hot and healthy" team; the Arizona Cardinals. Right now the Cardinals have been the poster children for inconsistency; just as they were in 2008. Chances are this team will be in the playoffs due to a weak division, and if they want to get back to the Super Bowl they're going to have to be "hotter and healthier" than everyone else.

Finally you have the San Diego Chargers who last year were able to get hot enough, but not healthy enough, to finally make the elusive run the Super Bowl. This season the Chargers are looking relatively healthy, but they've yet to get hot. It's going to be tough for this team come playoff time (if they make it) to advance, given they likely won't have the luxury of playing any games in San Diego's nice weather; thus making their health the greatest factor in finally advancing.

So when you line up the contenders (sorry Denver) this January look at who is healthiest, and then watch for them to get hot. Once you see any signs of heat rising, that's the team to watch.