Pre - Pre - Pre Season NCAA FBS TOP 25

Okay, so I know it's really premature (before players announce their leaving for the Pro's even) but here is my end of season into next season NCAA FBS top 25.

01. Alabama - They're returning a lot of their key players, especially on offense, and they ran the table last year. They'll be back this year.

02. Ohio State - They're the class of the Big Ten, but the Big Ten will be tough. They have a key non conference game with The U.

03. Virginia Tech - Entering 2010 they are the favorites to win the ACC. The question is do they want it more than Miami and Georgia Tech?

04. Boise State - They play Oregon State and Virginia Tech. Win those two and they're playing for the National Title.

05. Iowa - They were good this year, if healthy, they can be great next year.

06. Oklahoma - Landry Jones and the offensive line will be improved in 2010. The Big 12 is theirs to lose.

07. Texas - They're going to slip. Truth is, they're losing a lot of leadership.

08. USC - With an emerging Pac 10, I'd be shocked if they made it to the National Title game next year.

09. TCU - If they run the table they'll be back in the BCS, not the title game.

10. Florida - With or without Meyer, I can't see this team getting back to national title contention in 2010.

11. Wisconsin - They impressed towards the end of last year, and heading into 2010 they have the Big 10 looking really good.

12. LSU - They always compete. It all comes down to them vs Alabama though.

13. Nebraska - A sleeper for the Big 12. They're a better team than people give them credit for.

14. Oregon - Last year may have been their shot, but that defense is solid.

15. Miami - A win over Wisconsin would have made them preseason National Title game contenders.

16. Oregon State - They can win the Pac 10, not a national title.

17. Pittsburgh - A sleeper to get to the National Title Game. They may be the best team in the Big East heading into 2010, and if they can run the table, they just may get there.

18. Georgia Tech - Another ACC Title is going to be hard with VT and Miami looking to improve.

19. North Carolina - This is the year Butch Davis has to get it done. ACC Title game or bust.

20. Notre Dame - Don't expect it to take too long for Brian Kelly to turn this ship around. His talent pool is deeper, and his schedule isn't much tougher.

21. UConn - Welcome to college football relevence UConn. Believe it or not they have a shot to win the Big East next year.

22. Utah - If you win the Mountain West you can go BCS. Enough said.

23. Penn State - It's gonna be a down year, but this team is always relevant.

24.Cincinnati - It's going to be a down year for this program.

25. Houston - Keenum is coming back. Their competion in C-USA will be SMU and ECU. Both will be tough.

Conference USA Move to 2-1 in Bowl Games

The Little Caesars Pizza Bowl was one of the more neglected bowl games of the season, serving as the opener on the day-after-Christmas; which has traditionally served as an opener to the big Bowl games.

Though neglected, I'm sure those who tuned into the game on ESPN today were satisfied. In a very tight game, Marshall were able to win 21-17 after leading 21-0 at one point. The second half was all Ohio, but too many mistakes and miscues wrote Ohio's demise.

The bowl win is Marshall's first since the 2002 GMAC Bowl, when Byron Leftwich had his breakout game, and the programs first since moving to Conference USA.

The win also opens the door for Marshall, who begin the Doc Holliday as head coach era in 2010, to compete for their first Conference USA title; a conference that is looking to be really tough in 2010.

For those of you wondering if C-USA's wins over the MAC and WAC thus far should open discussion for why C-USA has zero top 25 teams and the MAC and WAC have one each, look no further than the Hawaii and Little Caesar Bowl's for your answer. SMU, the seasons biggest underdog, and Marshall, playing without their head coach, defeated WAC #2 and MAC #2. In other words, Conference USA is a much deeper, more competitive conference (Though Southern Miss' upset at the hands of Middle Tennessee did the conference little for it's argument).

Is Conference USA ready to start competing for BCS automatic qualification? Absolutely not! But let me put it out there that, although the conference doesn't get too much attention, it's second to only the Mountain West in terms of the best Non-Automatic Qualifying conferences.

Are There Too Many Bowl Games?

Last week I essentially defended the Bowl system by arguing that a playoff wouldn't do justice to the regular season.

Today I'm raising the question, are there too many Bowl games? And if so, how do we change to Bowl system to make every game (or at least 75% of them) more valuable.

This year there are 34 Bowl Games. Like every year, there are about 10 games you won't miss, another 5 you'll want to catch, and another 5 that will be worth watching. After that we're left with about 14 games that are awful, about half of which include teams that you want to see against awful opposition.

Bowl games are supposed to be a reward for teams that played good to great football in a particular season. The following teams played very mediocre football and have made it to bowl games in 2009; UCLA (6-6, 3-6 in Pac 10), Wyoming (6-6, 4-4 in Mountain West), Marshall (6-6, 4-4 in C-USA), Texas A&M (6-6, 3-5 Big 12), Minnesota (6-6, 3-5 Big 10), Iowa State (6-6, 3-5 Big 12).

That's 6 teams right off the bat that shouldn't be playing in post-season games. In my opinion, if a bowl loss would put you below .500 on a season, you shouldn't be eligible for a bowl game. That should be a rule. To make matters worse, Minnesota and Iowa State are playing each other in the Insight Bowl on New Years Eve. A game I know the entire nation is looking forward to.

On top of those six .500 teams, there are a few pretty desperately mediocre teams who shouldn't be playing in a post season game. Middle Tennessee State, 2nd place in the Sun Belt, are going to play (and likely lose to) C-USA #5 Southern Mississippi. I'm all for the Sun Belt sending a second team to a Bowl, it legitimizes the conference, but C-USA #5? The 7-5 Golden Eagles were about as mediocre as a team could be all season long.

With a 3-5 conference record, Kentucky are going to play a pretty good Clemson team in the Music City Bowl. And WAC #4 Idaho are going to play MAC #4 Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Finally there's UConn, USF, and Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois are the MAC #5, and though they were able to beat Purdue early in the regular season, it's hard to argue for five teams from the MAC being bowl eligible.

NIU's opponent, USF, are a similar story. At 7-5, 3-5 in the Big East, it's hard to make a case for this team being Bowl eligible, especially considering they've gotten blown out in four of their five losses. UConn on the other hand, had four losses to ranked teams at the moment, three of which remain ranked. The biggest issue lies in that none of their wins (outside of a win over the aforementioned USF) comes against a participating Bowl team.

UConn's opponent in the Papa John's.com bowl with be the South Carolina Gamecocks; a 7-5 team, with a 3-5 conference record, making them SEC #7. I know the SEC is the premiere conference of the FBS, but c'mon, seven teams? That's a little too hefty. Even for the SEC.

So far we've eliminated UConn, USF, NIU, South Carolina, UCLA, Wyoming, Southern Miss, Marshall, Texas A&M, Minnesota, Iowa State, Kentucky, Idaho, and Bowling Green from Bowl games.

I know I've omitted FSU from this elimination, and I suppose at 6-6 they shouldn't be eligible, but Bobby Bowden has earned a chance to go out on a positive note. Let's give him a rare break in this situation.

That's 14 teams, in other words 7 games. Enough to take our Bowl season from 34 games to 27.

27 games would be perfect, wouldn't it? With the leftover teams who were stuck against poor opponents we'd get games like Fresno State vs Temple and Clemson vs Georgia. Not wonderful games, but better than what we have.

Truth be told. as good a 27 game Bowl Series would be, it probably won't happen. The profitability of the Bowl system for the NCAA, the universities, and the cities which host the games, is too high for the NCAA to start cutting back on Bowl games. And with the Yankee Stadium Bowl coming next year, the better odds would be with that number growing to 40 by 2015.

Hopefully, for the competitive sake of the sport, it won't.

If There Was a BCS Playoff

If there was a 16 game BCS tournament of just the top 16 BCS teams getting bid we'd be getting these games this week:

1. Alabama vs 16. West Virginia
2. Texas vs 15. Miami
3. Cincinnati vs 14. BYU
4. TCU vs 13. Penn State
5. Florida vs 12. LSU
6. Boise State vs 11. Virginia Tech
7. Oregon vs 10. Iowa
8. Ohio State vs 9. Georgia Tech

Not bad at all. Three teams from the ACC, SEC, Big 10. Only one team from Pac 10 and Big 12. Of FBC conferences, 8 of 11 are represented.

Here's what the tournament would look like if every FBS conference sent a minimum of 1 team (you couldn't pass off a 16 team tournament without guaranteeing the "minors" at least one spot), leaving 5 at large spaces.

1. Alabama (SEC) vs 16. Troy (Sun Belt)
2. Texas (Big 12) vs 15. East Carolina (Conf USA)
3. Cincinnati (Big East) vs 14. Central Michigan (MAC)
4. TCU (Mountain West) vs 13. Penn State (At Large #5)
5. Florida (At Large #1) vs 12. LSU (At Large #4)
6. Boise State (WAC) vs 11. Virginia Tech (At Large #3)
7. Oregon (Pac 10) vs 10. Iowa (At Large #2)
8. Ohio State (Big 10) vs 9. Georgia Tech (ACC)

Not bad. Troy, ECU, Central Michigan replace BYU, Miami, West Virginia at a shot for the national title. More importantly ECU lost in the regular season at West Virginia 35-20. We'd probably have to hear about that one all season.

Not to mention, Alabama vs Sun Belt Champion Troy. Um. Remember Troy? Week 2 at Florida ring a bell? 56-6 final score. Imagine what Alabama would do to them.

Cincinnati vs Central Michigan wouldn't be the end of the world, but the #3 ranking for the team would be even more contested by TCU given that the Horned Frogs would now be stuck playing a pretty good Penn State team instead of the MAC Champion.

Now, to be fair, if we're going to let a minimum of 1 team from each conference into the tournament, odds are there will also be a cap of a maximum 2 teams from each conference in the tournament. That will mix the tournament up to look like this:

1. Alabama (SEC) vs 16. Troy (Sun Belt)
2. Texas (Big 12) vs 15. East Carolina (Conference USA)
3. Cincinnati (Big East) vs 14. Central Michigan (MAC)
4. TCU (Mountain West) vs 13. West Virginia (At Large #5, Big East #2)
5. Florida (At Large #1, SEC #2) vs 12. BYU (At Large #4, Mountain West #2)
6. Boise State (WAC) vs 11. Virginia Tech (At Large #3, ACC #2)
7. Oregon (Pac 10) vs 10. Iowa (At Large #2, Big 10 #2)
8. Ohio State (Big 10) vs 9. Georgia Tech (ACC)

Adios LSU and Penn State; welcome back West Virginia and BYU. In case you were wondering both Penn State and Iowa were 10-2 (6-2 in conference), but Penn State's loss to Iowa gives Iowa the BCS edge.

So let's digest these brackets.

BCS National Championship Tournament 2009:

Bracket A

1. Alabama vs 16 Troy
8. Ohio State vs 9. Georgia Tech

4. TCU vs 13.West Virginia
5. Florida vs 12. BYU

Bracket B

2. Texas vs 15. East Carolina
7. Oregon vs 10 Iowa

3. Cincinnati vs Central Michigan
6. Boise State vs Virginia Tech

First things first: Bracket A turns out to be murder compared to bracket B.

The next thing I ask you, is this really better than what we have?

Alabama vs Troy, Ohio State, Florida/TCU en route to the national championship. Texas vs ECU, Oregon, Cincinnati/Boise State en route to the national championship. Are these really better that having a regular season loaded with "playoff" type games.

Why would Florida care about last weeks game with Alabama in this atmosphere? They knew they wouldn't fall below 5. Why not end up in the pool with BYU, WV, and TCU instead of the pool with Ohio State and Georgia Tech?

Think about the other games from the regular season that would have been rendered meaningless: Ohio State vs Iowa, Boise State vs Oregon, TCU vs BYU, the list goes on. All of the inter conference games that were meaningful would have been equally meaningful, if not more meaningful (given the two team per conference cap).

I'm not trying to convince you a tournament is useless, because it's not. It would be fun. But let's not forget that what separates college football from other sports (did anyone actually watch 'Cuse vs Florida in NCAA-B on Thursday?) is that the regular season is so important that we'll watch even the most futile of games.

So before you cast your vote for a college football playoff, ask yourself, "is Alabama vs BYU in December really worth sacrificing USC vs Ohio State in September?" Because we all know that the BCS is the only reason big time schools book worthy competition in their non conference schedule.

2009 BOWL SCHEDULE

The moment is finally here and the Bowl schedule has finally been released. I'll hit you with my reactions soon, but for now I'd like to just post this as an untampered document. EagleBank are the only slackers so far.

December 19, 2009

New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs Wyoming

St Petersburg Bowl
UCF vs Rutgers

December 20, 2009

New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs Middle Tennessee

December 22, 2009

Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon State vs BYU

December 23, 2009

Poinsettia Bowl
Utah vs Cal

December 24, 2009

Hawaii Bowl
Nevada vs SMU

December 26, 2009

Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall vs Ohio

Car Care Bowl
Pitt vs North Carolina

Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs USC

December 27, 2009

Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs Clemson

December 28, 2009

Independence Bowl
Texas A&M vs Georgia

December 29, 2009

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA or Army vs Temple

Champs Sports Bowl
Miami vs Wisconsin

December 30, 2009

Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs Idaho

Holiday Bowl
Arizona vs Nebraska

December 31, 2009

Armed Forces Bowl
Houston vs Air Force

Sun Bowl
Oklahoma vs Stanford

Texas Bowl
Navy vs Missouri

Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs Iowa State

Chick-fil-A
Virginia Tech vs Tennessee

January 1, 2010

Outback Bowl
Northwestern vs Auburn

Capital One
Penn State vs LSU

Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs Florida State

Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs Oregon

Sugar Bowl
Florida vs Cincinnati

January 2, 2010

International Bowl
South Florida vs Northern Illinois

Papajohns.com Bowl
South Carolin vs UConn

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs East Carolina

Alamo Bowl
Michigan State vs Texas Tech

January 4, 2010

Fiesta Bowl
Boise State vs TCU

January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl
Iowa vs Georgia Tech

January 6, 2010

GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan vs Troy

January 7, 2010

BCS National Championship
Texas vs Alabama

Bowls Shape Up

Check back here tomorrow and Monday for a complete list of Bowl games and my thoughts, but as for now let's discuss what we know.

The BCS Looks Like:

Nat'l Champ: Alabama vs Texas

Fiesta: Iowa vs Boise State

Orange: Georgia Tech vs TCU

Sugar: Florida vs Cincinnati

Rose: Oregon vs Ohio St

Shaking your head at some of those schools? Get used to it. It's the new NCAA. Personally, I love it.

Ok, so SMU are going to take on Nevada it looks. Hawaii will fall short. Jones will still return to Hawaii on Christmas Eve for the Hawaii Bowl. That's one to watch for.

Notre Dame will somehow crawl into a Bowl game. Probably the GMAC bowl. It'll be interesting to see who plays, who coaches, or if Notre Dame even except the big. That will be against Central Michigan.

If USC are lucky they'll get BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

The Holiday Bowl will be a good one with Oregon State taking on Nebraska.

Those are some of the bigger bowls, bigger programs. We don't know what Florida State will do. Miami will likely be given a good game too.

But who cares, it's Bowl season. We'll all try to watch as many as possible. At least we should.

The BCS Has it Right

In case you haven't seen this weeks BCS rankings here's the top ten:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Cincinnati
6. TCU
7. Boise
8. Oregon
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech

The AP poll has the same 1-3 but follows with a 4-10 the follows:

4. Cincinnati
5. Boise
6. TCU
7. Oregon
8. Iowa
9. LSU
10. Georgia Tech

At the top, it doesn't matter where Florida and Alabama are ranked. At this point it's safer to put Florida at #1 since they've clinched a spot in the SEC Championship game. If Alabama win at home this week vs LSU there's a great chance they'll flip positions with Florida. Texas are going to be #2 as long as they keep winning. If they're able to run the table they'll be in the National Championship.

Iowa belong ahead of Cincinnati based on the sole fact that the Big 10, even in a down year, is a better than the Big East, which has been in a down decade. I have been impressed with Cincinnati, but these past two weeks Iowa have proves resilient. Some say Iowa have proven weak, but I disagree. If Iowa can run the table, and Texas somehow lose, Iowa will belong in the National Championship over everyone else.

TCU belong ahead of Boise despite Boise's home win against Oregon. I agree with the BCS' formula of holding early season wins to a lesser standard than late season wins. Boise's schedule since that Oregon game has been awful, and they haven't had one tough road game.

I'm very happy that the BCS put Boise ahead of Oregon; ranking the Ducks ahead of the Broncos would be a crime and deminish the BCS; a system I strongly believe in.

Placing the Ducks ahead of the LSU Tigers on the other hand gets tricky. Both are 7-1, with LSU's only loss being at home to the #1 ranked Florida Gators. Oregon on the other hand have one loss at the #7 ranked Boise St Broncos. Is a home lose to the best really worse than a road loss to a very good team? It looks that way. Fortunately for the Tigers they have a chance to get back in the national title hunt when they head to Alabama this week. A win and the Tigers will be in perfect form to win the SEC West and play the Gators in a rematch: the winner playing in the National Championship.

Finally, #10 does belong to whoever is in control of the ACC. The ACC this year is up there with every conference outside of the SEC. So far Georgia Tech have one loss to a very very good University of Miami team. Georgia Tech can hold on and ring off wins against Wake Forest, Duke, and Goergia consecutively and earn themselves a solid bowl berht. Georgia will be the only tricky game.

The biggest complaints about the BCS rankings will come from fans of the big schools; USC, Penn State, Ohio State and Miami fans will burst out with their cries of entitlement, but the truth is college football is a gauntlet and that's what makes it great. If there were a playoff it'd take away so much fun from the regular season games. The fact is, USC, Miami, and Ohio State have all lost twice this year; it doesn't matter who they beat, what matters is they lost and the teams ahead of them haven't.

I don't favor a playoff system and college football, I love the BCS, and I believe it is what makes college football so entertaining.