Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Keep The NFL Out of Los Angeles

You've probably heard by now that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (yeah, he's still the Governor and Californians are still paying the price for something people thought would be cool and funny five years ago) has pushed forth the proposed $800,000,000 football stadium to be built in Los Angeles.

Before we talk football let me first say that it's pretty much a common fact that no stadium ever built with taxpayer money ever turned profit for it's taxpayers. It's simply there for entertainment, and creating a few jobs; mostly entertainment though. Although in this economy every job is important, (construction, stadium vendors, maintenance), using taxpayer money to create a football stadium when the state of California is financially collapsing seems like a bogus idea.

Next, the city of Los Angeles failed to support professional football before. It's well know that these fans will only hop on a train when it's already full, or never at all (which may explain the cities awful public transportation). The Rams and Raiders didn't leave LA because they had great attendance, they left because the teams hit hard times and they couldn't attract more than 35,000 on average.

The decline of football in LA had nothing to do with outdated facilities either. Currently the Jets and Giants share the same "old" stadium in New Jersey and both teams sell out every game, every season; in much worse weather, often with bad teams. This isn't east coast bias, these are just facts. California fans are not east coast fans, their passion for sports doesn't match their passion for leisure.

Los Angeles is also a melting pot of transplants. You walk around downtown on any given day and you'll see Steelers, Packers, Colts, and 49ers fans everywhere; not to mention a ton of Giants, Cowboys, Chargers, Rams, and Raiders fans. Unless one of those teams moves to LA, there just won't be a market for it. This would mean the Rams, Raiders, and Chargers are at the top of the list for moving to LA.

Vikings fans, you can now breath a sigh of relief.

I don't see Al Davis moving the team back to LA considering the divorce from the market was pretty messy. But a shiny new stadium in LA might be tempting, and the Raiders are still the most popular team in the region; Not to mention the Oakland Coliseum is way past it's prime and nothing new is set to be built. Still, I just don't see it. The Raiders just belong in Oakland.

The Rams would fit perfectly back in Los Angeles. St. Louis needs a new stadium and plans to get one done are sketchy. The team is up for sale as well, making it easier to make the move back to LA. However, if the Checketts group wins the bid for the team, NFL rules will likely keep the team in St. Louis.

The Chargers make the most sense. There's really no plan to build a new stadium, the team desperately needs a new stadium, and the franchise has already acquired territorial rights for Orange County. Moving the team up north would likely hurt the Charger fans in San Diego, but the team would remain San Diego's market team. I like the odds of this happening the most. San Diego has had financial problems lately, the city recently build the Padres a state of the art ball park, and historically, both the Chargers and Padres have drawn poor attendance numbers in down years.

Still, moving any of these three franchises to Los Angeles would not end any of their franchises question marks outside of stadium issues. Attendance in Los Angeles will always be iffy. When the team in 11-5 it'll be bustling. When the team is 14-2 it'll be a mad house. When the team is 8-8 it'll be quiet. When the team is 5-11 it'll be empty. This is a guarantee. Whichever franchise moves to LA may get a shiny new stadium, but it won't find itself off of the "black out" lists anytime soon.

Also, there hasn't been a rapid desire from the people of LA for a professional team. This is a USC city right now. The fans of Los Angeles care a lot more about College football than they do for pro football and it's not because they don't have a pro team. USC has captured the sports fans of this region the same way the Lakers have. If a pro team comes to LA, they'll be second fiddle to a college powerhouse; much like in Jacksonville.

So before you make a bigger mess than you already have Governor, put this to rest. It's a mess in the making. Things have been just fine without a pro football team in LA. In fact, since football left LA, the league has exploded. I'm not saying they're relative statements, but it proves that the league is fine the way it is.

St. Louis Rams... Your Decade is Over

This season, whenever I believe a team is eliminated from the playoffs, thus making their season (and decade) over, I will write their obituary.

Today I present to you the St. Louis Rams of the 00's.

The Rams spend the first nine years of the 1990's floating somewhere in between the words horrible and obscure. Things got so bad for the Rams that after the 1994 season the team moved from Los Angeles to St. Louis.

Then a funny thing happened; In the 1998 offseason the team pulled of a trade with the Indianapolis Colts which sent Marshall Faulk to the Rams. The team also used it's first round pick, #6 overall, to select wide receiver Torry Holt to complement Isaac Bruce. With former #1 overall pick Orlando Pace anchoring a solid offensive line, and Trent Green under center, the Rams looked like they were in shape to win about 8 games in 1999. But Green got hurt before the season could start and Kurt Warner, a little known QB from the Arena League, took over at QB.

The 1999 Rams would go on to a 13-3 record en route to the franchises first Super Bowl championship, and just like that the Rams would enter the 00's as the leagues best team, and enter the next three seasons as the Las Vegas odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Although the team was now lead by Mike Martz, the 1999 team's offensive coordinator, for the Ram, the 2000 season began just where the 1999 season ended. Lead by Kurt Warner and a red hot Marshall Faulk, the team began the season with six straight wins before Kurt Warner went down in a Week 8 contest with the Chiefs.

Trent Green was given the keys to the Rams machine and the opportunity to win back the job Kurt Warner had stolen in style. Unfortunately for Green the Rams would win just two games under him, and Kurt Warner would finish the season as starter.

The brightest spot of the 2000 Rams season was the incredible play of Marshall Faulk, who in the first year of the decade achieved what I consider to be the finest single season performance of the decade, maybe ever. Faulk obtained 2,189 yards from scrimmage, 26 total touchdowns, and a well deserved league MVP award.

The 2000 Rams would head into the playoffs as the most dangerous road team in the NFC, but due to a shakey defense would lose to the New Orleans Saints 31 to 28. Mike Martz and his high powered offense would enter the offseason looking to fix up the defense before the window of opportunity closed.

The 2001 Rams would use three first round picks on their defense, drafting Ryan Pickett, Damione Lewis, and Adam Archuleta. The acquisition of Aeneas Williams, and the rapid development of rookie Tommy Polley, would help the 2001 establish themselves as a legitimate defensive contender.

With a chip on their shoulders, the 2001 Rams would open the regular season with six straight wins again, before losing to the Saints. This time, it was Marshall Faulk who would get injured, and this time it was Kurt Warner who would pick up the slack. The Rams would go on to win eight of their next nine games, and pick up a first round bye with a 14-2 record.

In 2001, with two less games than the year before, Marshall Faulk picked up 2,147 total yards, only 42 less yards than the season before. Faulk would also pick up 21 touchdowns; but it war Warner who would be the leagues MVP, passing for 4,830 yards, 36 touchdowns, and and a QB rating of 101.4. Under Warner's leadership, the 2001 Ram's offense became known as "The Greatest Show on Turf."

The Rams would enter the 2001 playoffs as the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl, and they'd get their relatively easily dominating the Green Bay Packers before winning a close win with the Eagles. For the second time in three years the Rams would be back in the Super Bowl and people were beginning to use the word "dynasty."

Super Bowl XXXVI featured the heavily favored Rams against the underdog New England Patriots. We all know now about the result of the game, we know about the spygate scandal, and we know that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots defeated the St. Louis Rams on a legendary field goal by Adam Vinatieri.

Time will tell what the impact of Spygate will have on our recollections of Super Bowl XXXVI. Personally, I'd like to with hold judgement and proclaim the Patriots the fair winners of that game, although I have a suspicion that some time in our lifetime we're going to find out a lot more, and we'll consider the 1999-2001 Rams the dynasty that never was.

Fueled by the anger of the XXXVI upset, the Rams entered 2002 the favorites to go back to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Rams, that anger lead to an 0-5 start. Kurt Warner looked horrible, Marshall Faulk was good but not great, and something needed to be done. That something occurred when Marc Bulger took over for Warner, who was ailing with an injury.

Bulger would help the Rams to a 6-1 record, before he too would get hurt. Despite the 0-5 start, the Rams would finish 2002 7-9, but they'd fall short of the playoffs. The team entered 2003 with a lot of questions, including how much longer would it be Marshall and Kurt's team?

The answer to that question would be "not much longer." Kurt Warner would start week 1 in a loss to the Giants, his next start would be week 1 of the following season in a Giants jersey. Bulger picked up the slack for Warner and lead the Rams to a 12-4 record, and a first round bye.

The 2003 playoffs began with a lot of people predicting a Rams Patriots rematch. That rematch would never occur as the Rams were one and done in the playoffs, suffering a loss to the Carolina Panther in overtime. Marc Bulger would throw for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Nevertheless the team entered 2004 confident that Bulger was their guy, and Kurt Warner signed with the New York Giants.

Nobody knew it, but 2004 would be the beginning of the decline of Mike Martz and the Rams. With an 8-8 record the team would win the Wild Card. The Rams would also go on to upset the division winning Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs before getting lit up by Michael Vick and the Falcons in the divisional round. Before the season the team had drafted young running back Steven Jackson to take over, and by the end of the season it became evident that they'd be waiving goodbye to Marshall Faulk very soon.

Faulk would come back to the Rams in 2005, but his role was very limited; as were the number of wins the team would get. Five games into the season Mike Martz was fired and the Rams would end 2005 with a 6-10 record. Marc Bulger got hurt, as did Isaac Bruce; Marshall Faulk retired, and the Rams entered 2006 with a handful of questions.

Scott Linehan would take over as the Rams head coach in 2006, but things didn't get too much better. The Rams lost the division to a mediocre Seahawks team. Marc Bulger stayed healthy and made it to the Pro Bowl, but with an 8-8 record, and lots of aging players on both sides of the ball, things were questionable going into 2007.

And in 2007, questionable turned into awful. Once again Marc Bulger couldn't stay healthy, and the Rams won only 3 games in a pathetic division. Just like that, the Rams decade of relevance was over.

The Rams stuck with Marc Bulger in 2008, and though he miraculously started 15 games, it didn't help much. The team won only 2 games all year, dispite a 1,000 yard in 11 games, season from Steven Jackson. After the season the team would part ways with Torry Holt and Orlando Pace. The only two remaining players from "The Greatest Show on Turf."

But if there's a rockbottom for the Rams, they still haven't hit it. 2009 looks to be just as bad as 2007 and 2008, and 1999-2001 seems like it's a lot further away than it really is. The team will probably have a top five draft pick and will probably give up on Marc Bulger and acquire a Quarterback to lead this team into the 2010's.

The Rams are in a rebuilding phase. There's a lot of talk of them moving back to LA. The team is in bad financial shape, and the most newsworthy they've been since 2003 has come through the denial of Rush Limbaugh to own a small percentage of the team.

But at least there was 2000 to 2004, the first five years of the decade in which the Rams were relevant. Where Faulk and Warner won back to back MVP's. When Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce made opposing defenses wet their pants. When Orlando Pace dominated guys like Michael Strahan, Simeon Rice, and Bryant Young.

It's going to be hard to forget those Ram teams, especially when those five aforementioned players represent "The Greatest Show on Turf" with metal busts in Canton.

MVP of the Decade: Torry Holt

Notable Players: Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace, Aeneas Williams, Adam Archuleta, Kurt Warner, Steven Jackson, Isaac Bruce, Adam Timmerman, Jeff Wilkins, Leonard Little, Grant Wistrom, Az-Zahir Hakim, Donnie Avery, Will Witherspoon, Chris Long

Throwback Jersey That Will Be Cool in 15 Years: 2000 Marshall Faulk (2001 XXXVI will have the Patch... but who needs it.)