What Skip Holtz Leaving ECU Means for C-USA

When Skip Holtz made the decision to leave East Carolina, it opened up the can of worms that is 2010 Conference USA discussion.

Okay, Okay, I know it's the NFL playoffs, and conference championship week at that. But give me a break, I'll be writing nonstop all week about Peyton vs Rex, and Favre vs Brees, and all the excitement that comes along with what I consider to be "the most exciting NFL day of the year." But for now I'm going to give you my 2010 Conference USA Pre-Preview.

Last year Holtz lead the Pirates to a 7-1 conference record, en route to picking up a C-USA title and Liberty Bowl berth. East Carolina should still compete in 2010, but with Holtz leaving, and a lot of the coaching staff going with him, chances are the Pirates are going to see some sort of decline. I project East Carolina to fall to about a 5-3 conference record next year, giving them a probable second place finish in C-USA East.

The team that should win the East next year are the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss. Although they finished up poorly against Middle Tennessee, the Golden Eagles are returning enough of their core to get back to the top of the East. I'd feel confident projecting a 6-2 finish for them.

The rest of C-USA East I see sorting out as follows; UCF will finish 5-3, Marshall will finish 4-4, UAB will finish 3-5, while Memphis will continue to slip and fall to 1-7.

Conference USA West is far more interesting.

The return of Quarterback Case Keenum sets things up wonderfully for the Cougars of Houston. For much of 2009 they were a Top 25 team, but their fall towards the end of 2009 shouldn't carry over into the new season. Their lone competition in the C-USA West will come from Tulsa, and in-state rival SMU.

Tulsa should be better in 2010 after they had a step-back year in 2009. Though it will take time to adjust to a Western division that now features potent Houston and SMU offenses, Tulsa will likely compete in 2010, and at the very worst finish top 3 in the division and return to a Bowl game.

The Mustangs of SMU on the other hand are the wild cards of not only C-USA, but potentially a lot more next year. Their performance in the Hawaii Bowl has a lot of people looking towards Dallas, and head coach June Jones has pulled off bigger miracles than returning a one-time national powerhouse to prominence. It would be foolish not to fully anticipate a focused, well coached SMU team next year, that will in no way take a step back towards mediocrity.

The way I see C-USA West sorting out is SMU in first at 7-1, owning the head to head with Houston at 7-1. Tulsa will improve to 5-3, while UTEP and Rice will be 3-5. Tulane will be lucky to improve to 2-6.

In a SMU vs Southern Miss match up I would have to love the Mustangs chances. Last year Jones' target was the Hawaii Bowl. This year, Jones' target will be the Liberty Bowl. Losing Shawnbrey McNeal hurts, but the Mustangs will get over that loss. I believe Kyle Padron will be named the Mustang's starting QB, and he'll lead them to a C-USA championship next year.

If there's one thing we should have learned in the last decade it's never bet against June Jones reaching his targets. The man knows how to coach, and he's one of the ten best coaches in the nation. That's a fact.

Boise State or TCU: Does Either Have a Shot at the BCS?

For the past several years small conference teams have made a push for the BCS. There were the 2006 Boise Broncos, the 2007 Hawaii Warriors, and the 2008 Utah Utes, all of which made it to a big time bowl with both the 06 Broncos and 08 Utes making a case that they could've contended in the National Championship game.

2009 has been no different. The season began with Boise defeating Oregon and staking their claim as the best minor in the country. Two days later BYU upset Oklahoma. The next week Conference USA team the University of Houston Cougars defeated Oklahoma State, shuttling that program into the mix as well. As of week two of the season Boise, BYU, Utah, Houston, and TCU were all making an impressive case as this years "BCS Buster."

But there's a reason why it's so hard to make the BCS National Championship Game, and that's what makes College Football so exciting.

The gauntlet began week 3 as Utah went down 24-31 at Oregon crippling the teams national title hopes; they're currently ranked #19. The same week BYU got clobbered at home 28-54 against Florida State. Week 4 Houston lost it's only game thus far at the University of Texas El Paso 41-58, the team is currently ranked #15.

That leaves Boise State and TCU as the only two contenders remaining. At the moment TCU rank 6 in the BCS while Boise rank #7. It's likely that two of the teams ahead of them will lose games from here on out, shuttling the two teams to a probably #4 and #5 respectably.

If Oregon defeat USC this week, that would do wonders for Boise State's national title hopes. In week 1 Boise defeated Oregon 19-8. With a weak schedule after that game, there is likely no hope that the Brocnos play in the championship game with an Oregon win this week. Even with an Oregon win, it's likely Boise's incredibly soft schedule will prevent them from playing the SEC winner this January.

TCU on the other hand have a highly ranked defense, and have one more game against a ranked opponent, Nov 14 vs Utah. If the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs can win that one impressively, the way the dominated BYU 38-7 on the road, TCU would have made a great case for earning a shot at the national title; especially with wins Clemson and BYU on their resume.

Personally I feel as though if a non major conference winner is going to make a run at the BCS championship game this is going to be the year. If USC, Iowa, and Texas lose a game at some point from here on out, there's an incredible chance the the Horned frogs will play the SEC winner in the national championship game this year.

I also feel as though TCU are the better team than Boise, but who knows? I know that it's a different year and different teams, but my logic stems from the results of this past seasons 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, which TCU squeaked by 17-16. The game went on to be the most underrated football game of 2008. Bar-none.

So if you like Cinderella stories and you want TCU or Boise to get their chance, stay tuned to this blog because I'll keep you up to date with what needs to happen for these teams to get a shot.