FUNK Football

Are We At The High Water Mark of Tim Tebow's Professional Career?

2011-11-21T14:03:00.000-08:00

The biggest story of the 2011 NFL season has been Tim Tebow. Since the preseason, Tebow has consumed the national newspaper headlines, the blogosophere, and every television network that covers the NFL, or sports in general for that matter. Considering all that's gone on this NFL season with headlines such as a lock out, Peyton Manning's potentially career ending injury, an undefeated Green Bay Packer team that looks scarier than the 2007 Patriots could have ever dreamed of becoming, the turmoil in Philadelphia, and the reemergence of the San Francisco 49ers, it's pretty impressive that Tim Tebow has been the consummating story of this season.

It began in training camp with the debate over whether or not Tebow or Orton should be the Broncos week one starter. Eventually, coach John Fox declared Orton to be the starter and every news media outlet reported that Tebow couldn't even make second string, losing that right to former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn. Fans who don't watch the preseason but read distorted headlines found this information to be humorous, and eventually Tim Tebow became a punchline for the casual fan.

Then, in case you missed a bulk of the summer Tebow bashing, Merril Hoge stepped in to make sure you caught up in time for the preseason.

For those unfamiliar with Hoge, he was an NFL player who spent seven seasons as a fullback with the Pittsburgh Steelers and five games with the Chicago Bears before injuries and ineffectiveness lead to his retirement. Hoge was an average blocker, though he did help Barry Foster become a Pro Bowl running back, and Hoge himself was more of a running fullback, and at times a very effective one. Nevertheless, today Hoge presents himself as a film-room guru and a quarterbacks expert on various ESPN shows, and this summer Hoge went out of his way to tweet "...It's embarassing to think the Broncos could win with Tebow!!"

Then came the actual preseason, where the Broncos quarterback situation was the most talked about positional battle in the NFL. In limited action, Tebow looked solid, though because none of his play was with the first team, the media and such found ways to ridicule Tebow's play, and began to designate a place for him on the "all-time busts" list.

But the fans in Denver and around the country never bought in, and after a week one loss at home to the Oakland Raiders where Kyle Orton was completely ineffective, it became even more apparent that despite what the media was saying, the fans who watch the NFL wanted to see Tim Tebow. A 1-3 start, a silly billboard outside of John Fox's office, a couple of plays at wide receiver, and talk about drafting Andrew Luck ensued until Tim Tebow finally got to play quarterback for the 2011 Denver Broncos, and Tebow put together a strong effort, almost guiding the Broncos to an improbably come from behind victory against then division leading San Diego. The Broncos were 1-4, but Tebow looked to be the Broncos starter.

Six weeks later the Broncos are 4-1, with victories of Miami, Oakland, Kansas City, and the New York Jets. Tebow's name has been dragged into MVP discussions, and at this point he's probably the second most deserving player of that award in the league behind Aaron Rodgers. Tebow is also probably to fill the third quarterback spot for the AFC in the Pro Bowl, and right now the Broncos sit one game out of first place in the AFC West.

He's become a cultural phenomenon. "Tebowing" has replaced "planking" as the thing drunks and tourists are most likely to do with their spare time. In a season with no Brett Favre and no Peyton Manning, Tebow has filled the void of "celebrity" athlete that Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have had trouble filling. He leads off every SportsCenter or affiliated show. He may not be the most beloved player in the NFL, but right now he's certainly the biggest, and most importantly he's backing up his celebrity with big, dramatic, wins.

Now the question is will it sustain? Intangibles have gotten Tim Tebow to this 4-1 record, but can intangibles take Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos to the playoffs? Conventional wisdom would say "no." Conventional wisdom also told us that a quarterback can't win going 2 for 8. Conventional wisdom told us that Kyle Orton gave the Broncos the best chance to win. Conventional wisdom told us that down 15 with less than three minutes to go on the road there was no chance the Broncos would beat the Dolphins. Conventional wisdom told us that Tebow couldn't win on the road in Oakland a week after getting embarrassed by the Detroit Lions. And of course conventional wisdom told us that "it's embarrassing to think that the Broncos could win with Tim Tebow!!"

Sometimes conventional wisdom is wrong.

Now I've always said, and I'll continue to say that I think Tim Tebow will be successful in the NFL lining up under center. He's not a tight end, he's not a full back. Tim Tebow is a quarterback. While he may not be a starting quarterback that can win a Super Bowl, Tebow is certainly a piece that a team can use to win one. A team like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the New York Jets who could use Tebow in red zone and short yardage packages where Tebow could come in and move the chains or score, much like Tebow did on the 2006 Florida Gator national championship team. Perhaps a coach like Bill Belichick will see in Tebow the opportunity to fix a run game that has been plaguing his team in big games since the retirement of Corey Dillon. Perhaps Andy Reid or Sean Payton or some other coach not afraid to experiment will bring Tebow in. But the bottom line is that someone out there eventually will.

And before that happens Tebow first needs to come down from the high that he's on now. It would be great to see the 2011 Denver Broncos go from 1-4 to the playoffs. I think that will happen. After that, who knows? But one thing I can say is that thus far, conventional wisdom has been wrong. You can say NFL defenses will eventually catch up, "but catch up to what?" is what I'd reply. Tebow hasn't been playing quarterback well at all. Some might even arguing he's playing the worst quarterback that any QB with a 4-1 record has ever obtained. And conventional wisdom would state that Tim Tebow's passing will only get better as he sees more in game action.

Maybe this time conventional wisdom will finally be wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Should Jimmy Clausen Get a Second Chance?

2011-11-12T12:33:00.000-08:00

It was only two years ago that Jimmy Clausen was being discussed as the number one quarterback in the NFL draft if an injured Sam Bradford decided to come back for a junior season.

In football, two years can be a lifetime, and for Clausen it only took 10 starts for the Carolina Panthers to give up on their 2010 2^nd round pick. Cam Newton, Carolina’s 2011 first round draft choice, is more than just the quarterback of the future in Carolina, he’s the identity the franchise had been searching for since their inaugural season in 1995. He’s what some in Carolina had hoped Jimmy Clausen could be.

But thus far Jimmy Clausen has been nothing but a powder keg of potential. Countless reports have been written about how good Jimmy Clausen was going to be since his junior year of high school in 2005. He was called the “LeBron James of football,” and every big name school from USC, near his home in Thousand Oaks, California, to Tennessee, where his brother Casey lead the the Volunteers to three winning seasons, tried to recruit Clausen. Clausen opted for the glory of Notre Dame, where then head coach Charlie Weis salivated over the opportunity to inject Clausen into his pro-style offense.

But the Clausen/Weis era was a disaster for Notre Dame, leading to Weis’ firing after the 2009 season, which lead Clausen to declare himself eligible for the 2010 NFL draft. Early projections saw Clausen going in the early first round, but draft day 2010 was less kind. Teams such as Buffalo, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Cleveland, all seemingly needing quarterbacks, passed on Clausen until he ended up in Carolina, a situation that looked excellent for the young passer, given that long time Panthers starter Jake Delhomme was moving on, and the Panthers were a team only a year removed from the two seed in the NFC.

But 2010 was such a disaster in Carolina that John Fox, the head coach who drafted Clausen, lost his job. Wide receiver Steve Smith publicly griped about Clausen’s poor play, and it was even rumored that Clausen’s teammates vehemently disliked him, a reputation that had been following the young passer since high school.

But Clausen is still young, and at age 24 he’s played in a lot of games, seen a lot of adversity, and has played for some excellent coaches to potentially learn from. In the long run, his awful rookie campaign and this year on the bench could supplement his three years as a starter at Notre Dame towards developing Clausen into a better NFL player. Perhaps he learned from his shortcomings as a leader in Carolina and can one day become a captain elsewhere.

But right now there’s nothing Jimmy Clausen can do. Barring a major injury to Cam Newton, Clausen will not see the field the rest of the 2011 season. Odds are that Carolina will fully endorse Newton at the end of the year and part ways with Clausen’s salary, allowing Clausen and his agent to decide where the best place for Jimmy Clausen to continue his NFL career will be.

But there’s one problem: teams traditionally don’t invest their future in other teams damaged goods. Clausen will also hit a market that includes Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, Chad Pennington, Matt Flynn, and potentially Peyton Manning. Though Clausen is likely viewed as having more upside than those players (based entirely on age), odds are that at least some of those players are going to inherit the open starting jobs, forcing Clausen to follow Matt Leinart and the aforementioned Young in taking backup jobs in situations they seem as potentially fruitful.

Or maybe Clausen won’t be so lucky. Maybe teams like Jacksonville, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota, Seattle, or Arizona won’t want him. Maybe Clausen will be forced to sign on as a backup to a well-engraved starter such as Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Matthew Stafford. But Clausen doesn’t deserve that, not yet.

But for Jimmy Clausen it’s never been about learning, growing, and developing. Dating back to his days in high school he’s been expected to be great, resulting in a sense of entitlement. And while the LeBron James comparisons have become laughable, Jimmy Clausen should get another shot to be an NFL starter. Clausen has potential and he has talent, what he didn't have were the intangibles, but this summer some NFL team will buy into what the scouts have written one more time, and give Jimmy Clausen one last chance to prove they're right.

What Alex Smith Has Taught Us About QB Development

2011-10-29T10:14:00.001-07:00

In 2009 Alex Smith looked done. Four years into his NFL career and Smith had shown only minor signs that he could be an NFL starting quarterback, and the San Francisco 49ers looked desperate for a replacement. Fortunately for Smith and the 49ers the 2010 NFL draft was thin at the quarterback position and the 49ers entered 2010 with Smith at the helm for what turned out to be a nightmare season. Head Coach Mike Singletary looked awful, the fans religiously booed Smith, and the end result was the drafting of Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick in the early second round of the 2011 NFL draft.

Here we are now in week 8 of the 2011 NFL season and the 49ers, under new head coach and former Pro Bowl QB Jim Harbaugh, are 5-1, and Smith is having a consistent, successful, though not flashy, season in which his TD to INT ratio is 8-2. Sometime we forget that Alex Smith is only 27 years old. Perhaps it’s because he’s been in the league for six years, or perhaps it’s because he was drafted ahead of Aaron Rodgers, but either way it’s safe to say that at this point in his career, with zero playoff appearances, a 74.3 career QB rating, and a 59-55 career TD to INT ratio, Alex Smith has not lived up to the billing of first overall pick, or franchise quarterback.

But was Smith ever given a chance? We’ve all heard the stories about how in six seasons he’s had five different offensive coordinators. On top of that, his team has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in team defense. In many ways, Smith was a product of an unstable organization that made a lot of bad moves internally, while making some good player personnel moves over the same time period.

Enter Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh brought an energy to the 49ers that only a local college football hero could bring. The idea of Harbaugh as the head coach of the 49ers excited the fans to believe in Smith because Harbaugh believed in Smith. On the field, Harbaugh inspired because he was young enough to relate to the players, and unlike mostly every other head coach in the league, has notoriously successful and inspiring NFL experience as a player. As a quarterback, Harbaugh could relate to Smith’s troubles, having gone through similar troubles with the Chicago Bears who drafted him, until he found success in the mid 1990’s with the Indianapolis Colts.

And so Harbaugh gave Smith a shot, and thus far Smith has performed, not by putting up gaudy stats, but by out-managing opposing QB’s such as Josh Freeman and Michael Vick. In a road game against a daunting Detroit Lions team, Smith had his worst game of the season, but still did enough to lead the 49ers to their most impressive win of the season.

And so it looks like the 49ers have their quarterback of the future. For now, Colin Kaepernick will be relegated to the bench, and for now that’s totally fine with Jim Harbaugh and the fans in San Francisco, because right now Alex Smith is starting to look like the franchise quarterback that they drafted him to be in 2005.

And there’s a lesson to be learned around the league from this as well. So often the top prospect quarterbacks land in volatile situations. There’s a reason that the Rams had the first overall pick to draft Sam Bradford with to begin with. As fans we see the successes of rookie QB’s such as Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco, and condemn the QB’s who don’t win immediately, which is absurd.

It’s easy to forget that the 2002 Steelers, a team with Roethlisberger inherited two years later, were a second round playoff team, and in 2001 were the number one seeded team in the AFC playoffs. The 2008 Jets were a 9-7 team that collapses at the end of the year, but the personnel was in place for the Jets to be a playoff team in 2009 when Mark Sanchez took over. The 2006 Ravens, which Joe Flacco inherited in 2008, were a 13-3 team with a first round bye in the AFC playoffs. And the 2009 Bengals won perhaps the toughest division in the NFL, before a step back year in 2010 allowed them to draft Andy Dalton early in the second round. Tom Brady inherited a team that was a Super Bowl contender through the late 1990’s before a step back year in 2000 made them the surprise team of 2001. In 1998 Peyton Manning took over a team that was in the playoffs in 1996, and were in the AFC title game in 1995. Aaron Rodgers inherited a team that was an overtime loss away from going to the Super Bowl. More than any sport Football is a team sport, and the situation that a quarterback falls into often defines their success. Steve Young and Vinny Testaverde both failed miserably with an awful Buccaneers team, yet had success elsewhere. Was it because they got better, or was it because the personnel around them in San Francisco and New York was better?

Still much of the personnel from their last Super Bowl run was in place when Brady took over in 2001. In 2010 Sam Bradford inherited a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2004, and in 2005 Alex Smith inherited a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2002. Now, here we are early in Bradford’s career where the fans are already contemplating ridding themselves of Bradford, who was at one point a “can’t-miss” prospect, for Andrew Luck, this year’s “can’t miss” prospect. While in San Francisco, many are wondering if they should have drafted Colin Kaepernick so early.

I believe that a quarterback should be given time, and it won’t be the worst thing in the world if they sit and learn the game for awhile before they’re thrown into the fire, or given up on. It used to be commonplace for a quarterback to watch for a while. Joe Montana, Phil Simms, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and countless other all time great quarterbacks watched and learned for full seasons before they became starters.

Unfortunately, the same patience is no longer granted in this era of free agency and rookie contracts, a team needs to know if a guy is a franchise quarterback right away, and the rule changes have made it easier for a quarterback to obtain success earlier.

Still, it would have been easy to give up on Alex Smith, and in a way the 49ers kind of did. But it looks like all he needed was the right situation.

Why Andrew Luck is Far From a Sure Thing

2011-10-27T20:05:00.000-07:00

It’s human nature to think that what comes next is going to be the best, and that newer is better. This is most true in the world of sports, where every year we pay attention to the drafts and the prospects and project championships on that year’s top prospects, just as we projected championships on to the previous year’s top prospects. In the NFL this mostly occurs with quarterbacks, and this year is no different with Stanford’s Andrew Luck being deemed as a “can’t miss” prospect, and has been compared to Super Bowl champion quarterbacks John Elway and Peyton Manning. In fact, some have even considered Luck the best quarterback since John Elway. A comparison that likely has nothing to do with both Luck and Elway attending Stanford.

Right now, the phenomenon that is Andrew Luck has captivated so many who have never watched Luck play that he has been a major storyline in a season in which he’s still playing in the Pac-12, not the NFL. To be fair, Luck was a major storyline this offseason when he decided to stay an extra year in college, thus shuttling Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winner, Maxwell award winner, and BCS National championship quarterback to the number one pick in the draft. Thus far, Newton has set a standard that would be next to impossible to match for Luck, yet Newton continues to be overshadowed by Luck, who remains in college.

But if there’s one thing any football historian has learned, it’s that for every Cam Newton there’s a JaMarcus Russell, meaning that for every franchise quarterback that goes in the first round, there’s (at least) a bust to go along with him. A lot of this has to do with the situation the quarterback falls into, but is that all?

Since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Of those, George was a total bust for the Colts, Couch, Carr, and Russell have been outright busts. So that’s 4 out of 13 that are complete busts. Michael Vick and Carson Palmer had strong moments for the teams that drafted them, but at the end of the day were not able to deliver championships for those teams, and the good always came with the bad. So that’s 6 out 13 teams that didn’t get their “franchise” quarterback with the first overall pick. It’s too early to predict Smith, Stafford, Bradford, or Newton. Bledsoe took the Patriots to a Super Bowl (technically two), and the two Mannings have each won a Super Bowl. It’s important to note that of those thirteen quarterbacks taken first overall since 1990, only Peyton Manning is a guaranteed Hall of Famer, and if all of their careers ended tomorrow, Peyton would be the only one with a chance at Canton enshrinement.

So since 1990, 13 quarterbacks have been draft first overall, and only one of those quarterbacks has ever won an MVP award, only two of those quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl in which they were the starting quarterback, and only one of those quarterbacks is a Hall of Famer. Of course in each instance, we’re referring to Peyton Manning.

So if only 1 in 13 quarterbacks drafted 1^st overall become Hall of Famers, what exactly defines a “sure thing,” which is what the media and the scouts have deemed Andrew Luck? Of the 9 quarterbacks who we can judge, 5 of them took their teams to the playoffs, making the odds 9:5 that the QB will become a “playoff caliber” QB. If a “sure thing” means playoff caliber QB, than I like those odds that Luck will become a “sure thing.”

But I don’t think that’s what the media is suggesting, unless there wouldn’t be talk of the Colts getting rid of the injured Manning for the young Luck. There wouldn’t be talk of the Rams trading the expensive Bradford for the cheaper-due-to-rookie-wage-scale Luck. And there wouldn’t be rumors that the Seahawks, Dolphins, and Redskins are all willing to trade a generations worth of draft picks for the rights to draft Luck. If you’re going to do that, then you have to be expecting more than the playoff career of Carson Palmer.

And while saying that Luck has a better chance at becoming Carson Palmer than Peyton Manning may be unfair, there are some comparisons between Palmer and Luck worth looking at, specifically the level of competition they face weekly in the Pac-10/12, a conference that has had a more than unstable history of first round QB’s since 1990, let’s take a look: Todd Marinovich (’91, USC, Raiders), Tommy Maddox (’92, UCLA, Broncos), Drew Bledsoe (’93, WSU, Patriots), Ryan Leaf (’98, WSU, Chargers), Akili Smith (’99, Oregon, Bengals), Cade McNown (’99, UCLA, Bears), Joey Harrington (’02, Oregon, Lions), Carson Palmer (’03, USC, Bengals), Kyle Boller (’03, Cal, Ravens), Aaron Rodgers (’05, Cal, Packers), Matt Leinart (’06, USC, Cardinals), Mark Sanchez (’09, USC, Jets), Jake Locker (’11, UW, Titans). Again, we have 13 quarterbacks. This time we only have one Super Bowl champion, who will also likely be this year’s MVP, and I project will one day be a Hall of Famer, that being Aaron Rodgers, who inherited a team that went to the NFC title game the year before he took over as starter; Luck likely won’t be privileged enough to have that sort of situation bestowed upon him. I also feel as though it’s too early to call Mark Sanchez a bust, although he’s certainly not a “franchise” QB, and it’s too early to look at Locker, who has yet to start an NFL game.

So let’s look at the other ten guys: Marinovich was a total bust, as were Maddox, Leaf, Smith, McNown, Harrington, Boller, and Leinart. That’s 8 of 11 QB’s drafted out of the Pac-10 from 1990-2006 who were absolute busts. I’d throw Palmer into bust category more than “hit” category because he never reached his potential, and there were more losing seasons than winning seasons when he was QB of the Bengals from 04-10. So that’s 9 of 11, with only Rodgers and Bledsoe being successful as Pac 10 QB’s drafted in the first rd of the NFL draft.

Before you say “that has to be the same for every league” let’s take a look at the SEC in the same time span: Heath Shuler (’94, UT, Redskins), Peyton Manning (’98, UT, Colts), Tim Couch (’99, UK, Browns), Rex Grossman (’03, UF, Bears), Eli Manning (’04, Miss, Giants), Jason Campbell (’05, Auburn, Redskins), Jay Cutler (’06, Vanderbilt, Broncos), JaMarcus Russell (’07, LSU, Raiders), Matthew Stafford (’09, UGA, Lions), Tim Tebow (’10, UF, Broncos), Cam Newton (’11, Auburn, Panthers). That’s 11 QB’s since 1990. Two Super Bowl champions, three Super Bowl QB’s, and only Shuler, Couch, and Russell can be considered busts at this point in time. That’s a 5 of 8 success rate, with Stafford and Newton looking like “franchise” QB’s more than Smith or Sanchez are.

What this tells us is that the SEC prepares QB’s for the NFL more than the Pac 10/12 does, and that because of the lower level of competition in the Pac 10/12 lesser skill position players can look better. Think that sounds harsh? Here are the non-QB Pac 10/12 skill position players to be taken top 10 overall since 1990: Tommy Vardell (’92, Stanford, RB, Browns), Curtis Conway (’93, USC, WR, Bears), J.J Stokes (’95, USC, WR, 49ers), Keyshawn Johnson (’96, USC, WR, Jets), Reggie Williams (’04, UW, WR, Jaguars), Mike Williams (’05, USC, WR, Lions), and Reggie Bush (’06, USC, RB, Saints). While I wouldn’t call all seven “busts” I would say that none of the seven lived up to a top ten pick, given that none of the seven were ever amidst the top three at their position, with Johnson coming the closest in the 1998-2002 time span.

For the sake of comparison, we’ll again look at the non-QB skill position players drafted in the top ten from the SEC in this time span: Garrison Hearst (’93, UGA, RB, Cardinals), Ike Hilliard (’97, UF, WR, Giants), Fred Taylor (’98, UF, RB, Jaguars), Jamal Lewis (’00, UT, RB, Ravens), Travis Taylor (’00, UF, WR, Ravens), Ronnie Brown (’05, Auburn, RB, Dolphins), Cadillac Williams (’05, Auburn, RB, Bucs), Troy Williamson (’05, SC, WR, Vikings), Darren McFadden (’08, Arkansas, RB, Raiders), A.J Green (’11, Georgia, WR, Bengals), and Julio Jones (’11, Alabama, WR, Falcons). Of those 11 players, there are two potential Hall of Fame running backs in Taylor and Lewis, a few pro bowlers in Ronnie Brown, Garrison Hearst and Darren McFadden, and a young WR who looks special in A.J Green. There are some busts such as Travis Taylor and Ike Hilliard, but of these 11 you could honestly say that 7 or 8 have been all star caliber players.

So does this mean that Andrew Luck will be a bust because he’s a first overall pick? No. Does this mean that because he plays in the Pac 10/12 and not the SEC he’s going to be a bust? No. But does it mean that the Colts should trade Peyton Manning? No. Does it mean that the Colts should draft Luck and keep Manning? No. If the Colts end up with the first pick they should cash the pick out for a couple of firsts, a couple of mid round picks, and even a veteran player or two. If the name of the game is to win championships, and Peyton Manning had this team in championship contention a year ago, think about what he can do with an upgraded team, instead of starting from scratch with Luck.

Does this mean that the Rams should draft Luck and trade Bradford? No, but the Rams situation is more delicate than the Colts. The Rams are in a bad cap situation, and Luck will come at a cheaper price than Bradford, who was drafted before a rookie wage scale. But giving up on Bradford after two years could be bad news for the Rams, who could learn from the Rivers/Brees situation in San Diego.

And what can the Dolphins take from this? The Dolphins need Luck because they need an identity, but they should be cautious if the Colts or Rams get the first pick to trade the entire franchise for him. You’ve seen the odds now, he’s not a “sure thing.” But if they have the first overall pick, they should absolutely take Luck. This is a franchise that could use a Carson Palmer, let alone a Peyton Manning.

There’s talk about teams with veteran or young quarterbacks in place that might make a trade for Luck. The Broncos are a natural fit because of Elway’s Stanford connection. The Jaguars can use an identity that they’re not sure Blaine Gabbert will give them, especially with a new head coach potentially coming in. Pete Carroll knows all about what Luck can do and wouldn’t mind bringing him into Seattle if the price were right, and the Redskins and Browns can use Luck as a chance to preserve the careers of Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan.

Of those options, it’s Denver and Miami that I believe would make the most sense for Andrew Luck and the franchise making the move for him. Denver wants out of the Tim Tebow situation ASAP, and unless Tebow finishes the season with a winning record as a starter, chances are that Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the Denver brain trust would love to cash him out for Luck. At this point Tebow should fetch at least a third round pick, and potentially a second round pick, and don’t be shocked if a team like Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans, or Philadelphia make that move in a move to not only give their teams another weapon, but also to protect their quarterback position. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick both contemplated drafting Tebow if the “spot was right.”

But at the end of the day the best thing for Andrew Luck is for Miami to finish with the worst record in the league, and they end up drafting him. That will alleviate a lot of the pressure that is being put on Andrew Luck right now, and a lot of the pressure that would come from a trade, or replacing Manning, Bradford, or Tebow.

Almost every year since 1998 there has been a new “Andrew Luck.” Not all Andrew Luck’s have gotten this much attention, but that’s because Andrew Luck’s of the past had to play against the celebrity of players like Eric Crouch, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Ken Dorsey, Matt Leinart, or Jason White. In 2009 his name was Matthew Stafford. In 2010 his name was Sam Bradford. Last year, his name was “Andrew Luck,” but instead of getting the real Andrew Luck, we may have gotten the closest thing to what our imaginations project Andrew Luck to actually be.

And yet we don’t appreciate it, because what comes in the future is always better than what we already have.

Week 5 Power Rankings

2011-10-11T11:32:00.000-07:00

The elite continue to thrive while the rest of the league continues to look incredibly mediocre. It won't be that way come January though. This is a weird season but eventually everything will sort itself out.

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers - I won't say this again for a few weeks, but this team could go 19-0. I'm just saying. No team has made it look this easy since that team that went 18-0 a few years ago, and this team is younger and has a better defense. Beware.

02. New Orleans Saints - The Saints got another win this week on the road against a division rival that is way better than their record. A win this week and they could easily be 8-1 heading into Atlanta in mid November.

03. Detroit Lions - The Lions had another huge victory on Sunday and the playoffs are all but a sure thing for Detroit right now. If they can get the defense to step up and become the top unit of the playoff teams (which they may already be), the Lions could shock the world and bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

04. New England Patriots - The Pats got the win they needed on Sunday and barring any major injuries or catastrophes the Pats should be smooth sailing towards a first round bye. This is the year the Pats need to get back to the Super Bowl because with a down trodden Steelers team and no Peyton Manning, The road back may never be this easy.

The Very Good

05. San Diego Chargers - They don't have a trademark win yet, but they're 4-1 and they're playing without their difference maker in Antonio Gates. This is a team that is in perfect position for a bye, and if they can somehow finish with the best record in the AFC will have a real shot to go to the Super Bowl.

06. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are 4-1 and the division seems like all but locked up. They've had a statement win, a comeback win, and Alex Smith is playing pretty well. I still think that they'll be one and done come January.

07. Baltimore Ravens - The bye week didn't do the Ravens any favors, but they're still sitting on that week one win against the Steelers and for now that's enough to keep them atop the AFC North. Their schedule even gives them a shot at the one seed.

08. Buffalo Bills - The Bills really wish they could have that Bengals game back, but still, they're 4-1 and if you're Buffalo you have to take that. Their next four games are really tough, but if they can get through them with a .500 record, 10-6 and the playoffs are a possibility. This may even be a year that a 9-7 takes a wild card.

09. Oakland Raiders - Don't look now but the Raiders are a quarterback away from being total favorites to win the AFC West. I'm still not sold that this is a playoff team, but they're going to be playing with a lot of emotion.

10. Washington Redskins - If the bye week didn't help the Ravens much, it sure helped the nearby Redskins a ton. The Giants lose at home to the Seahawks and the Eagles continue to melt. No one is a believe in this team yet, but a win this week against the Eagles would make the NFC East a three team race with the Redskins out in front. A loss and they'll likely fall off sometime in the near future.

11. Houston Texans - There is some sort of hex on the Houston Texans franchise. Just as things start to really look good after a win over the Steelers, Mario Williams gets injured for the duration of the 2011 season. This was Houstons year. They could have had a first round bye, and their defensive scheme mixed with their offensive fire power was enough to give the Patriots, Ravens, or Chargers are a close game. Not anymore.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers got the major win that they needed this week that they desperately need, even if that major win was against Tennessee. They have Jacksonville and at Arizona as their next two games, which should be enough to make this team 5-2 before the schedule toughens up with New England and Baltimore, but after that there is maybe one loss remaining on the schedule. Meaning that despite being incredibly mediocre, the 2011 Steelers should be in the playoffs. Then again you still have to play the games, and the 2011 Steelers look like a team that can lose a lot of games.

13. New York Giants - The Giants blew a golden opportunity to become 4-1 and take control of their own destiny. Instead they lost at home to a Seahawks team that many feel is still the worst in the NFL. Blown Opportunities: The Story of the Post-Super Bowl 42 NY Giants.

14. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas return from their bye week and enter a gigantic game against the Patriots. A win and a 3-2 record and they will likely have enough momentum to be the team to beat in the East. A loss, and Dallas will having a losing record and will be stuck looking for answers.

Hanging In There

15. Tennessee Titans - The Titans fell back down to Earth on Sunday and is it just me or do you expect this team to fall a little further? The good news is that falling further in the AFC South with a beat up Texans team and no Peyton Manning could still lead to a home playoff game.

16. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are 3-2 and they look like the may be on to something moving forward. Somehow, some way, Marvin Lewis continues to preserve a job that he should have lost by 2008.

17. Seattle Seahawks - Let's get one thing straight; the Seahawks are not the 17th best team in the league, but that's not the point of power rankings. Power rankings tell us who has the best chance to win the Super Bowl, and in order to win the Super Bowl you need to get to the playoffs and the Seahawks are the only team in the NFC West not named the 49ers with any chance of making the playoffs. From there it will still take a miracle to make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it.

18. Cleveland Browns - The Browns are still at .500 thanks to the bye week but we're soon going to find out what this team is made of. They're at Oakland this week, then home for Seattle next week. If they're 4-2 then we need to start taking them seriously. If they're 2-4 then we need to start evaluating their draft needs. And if they're 3-3, well then I guess we just continue to wait a few more weeks before we start evaluating their draft needs.

19. New York Jets - The positive if you're a Jets fan is that they lost to three teams in the top 10. The negative if you're a Jets fan is that they lost to three teams in the top 10. I've already discussed why Rex is likely a problem, maybe it's time to discuss whether or not Pete Carroll was right when he said that Sanchez needed another year in college to work on his skills. Carroll also evaluated Sanchez as a second round pick "at best." The Jets selected him fifth overall.

20. Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons had an opportunity to give a boost to their 2011, but now they'll spend the rest of the season trying to play catch up with a Saints team that is simply just much better than Atlanta. That's been the story of the Atlanta Falcons franchise. One step forward, another step back.

21. Chicago Bears - Remember my rules about teams falling off and not making the playoffs the next year. Something like at most 3 repeat teams in the NFC and at most 4 in the AFC. The Bears have pretty much assured that they will be one of the three teams to fall out in the NFC (along with the Eagles, Seahawks, and maybe even the Falcons). The defense is average, but the offense is bad.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - A week after barely beating the Colts on Monday Night, the Bucs got destroyed by the 49ers. The only thing you can really say is that this team is close, but still really far away. Contending teams don't have losses like that. Not to the 49ers.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs got another win on Sunday and successfully took themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. The Chiefs are also now in danger of losing out on Landry Jones. As I said earlier in the season, if any team needs to take a shot at a franchise QB it's the Chiefs, who haven't had a franchise QB in their prime since Len Dawson.

24. Carolina Panthers - At what point do we start getting on this team for not being able to close out these close games against elite teams? Not until 2012 the earliest. This defense is awful and Cam is pretty much a one man show making this offense top five in the NFL.

25. Philadelphia Eagles - I was never big on the 2011 Eagles because I knew the history of teams lead by Michael Vick. Thus far, the 2011 disaster hasn't been totally Vick's fault, although his injuries have played a large part. But the offense in Philly is great when Vick is healthy, it's the defense that looks atrocious. Can Steve Smith, Vince Young, or Ronnie Brown play defense? Because they're not doing much of anything on offense.

26. Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings finally got in the win column on Sunday and their entire 2011 will likely go down as a "what could have been" based on how the first four weeks went for them. Jared Allen has been a bright spot for this team.

The Dead

27. Denver Broncos - It was announced today that the Tebow era in Denver has officially begun. I always thought that Tebow would have success in the NFL, but I never believed that success would come in Denver, so I really see no hope for this team.

28. Arizona Cardinals - A lot of people thought this team would be contenders, how silly that seems now. The Seahawks are better coached, the 49ers have the better roster, and the Rams have a glimmer of hope that Bradford could become really good. The Cardinals? They'll likely fall into mid 2000's form. The question now becomes do they draft Matt Barkley and bring in Brad Childress? That was a Leinart and Denny reference. Anyone? A chuckle at least? Does anyone even read this blog?

29. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jack Del Rio era in Jacksonville is all but over and this is a team wondering if they should of just drafted Tim friggin Tebow. Gabbert is no bum, but there is no excitement in one of the markets that needs it the most.

30. St. Louis Rams - The Rams need to start winning games, but they're so beat up. This is a team that I really thought would take a big step forward, but they're really not making any progress. What a shame. I hate to say it but they probably should have drafted Suh over Bradford and mortgaged their future on a top flight defense and one of the 2011 QB's. Who knows, they may have even been able to get Newton in 2011.

31. Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne is out for season, and the Dolphins best shot at a future is to either get the number one pick, or try to trade with Indy by swapping #1 for #2 so that the Colts can draft Kalil out of USC. Anything other than Luck is a disaster for this franchise.

32. Indianapolis Colts - No excuses this week at the Colts blew a sizable lead to the Chiefs who I honestly thought were the worst team in the league. If they don't beat the Bengals this week, which is easier said than done, then this team will probably have Andrew Luck next year, and the Colts will likely enter a rebuilding phase, bidding farewell to names like Wayne, Mathis, and Saturday.

Week 4 Power Rankings

2011-10-04T15:09:00.000-07:00

Some movement around the league but I'm not ready to bury too many teams just yet. The Texans and Titans big wins over Pittsburgh and Cleveland ended the seasons of the Colts and Jaguars, while Denver, Minnesota, St. Louis, and Seattle also lost their games and seasons this week. The Chiefs won their first game, but they still may be the worst team in the NFL when it's all said and done. The 1-3 Panthers have amended themselves out of the dead based on how fun they are to watch right now.

At the top of the league, the Patriots and Ravens may be separating themselves from the rest of the AFC while the NFC looks like they have the three best teams in the NFL with Green Bay, New Orleans, and perhaps Detroit.

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers - The Packers have a test this week @Atlanta, but if they get through it then things start to look like smooth sailing unitl November. Aaron Rodgers is the NFL's MVP until he loses it. It doesn't matter what Brees, Calvin Johnson, Tom Brady, or anyone else does, it'll be about what Rodgers does or doesn't do.

02. New Orleans Saints - The Saints are quietly the second best team in the NFL, and they're a yard shot of being considered the best right now. This is a team that really wants a one seed, and looking ahead at the schedule this is 13-3 team at worst. The 2009 Saints were a 13-3 team as well. Or should I say 16-3.

03. Detroit Lions - I said it at the beginning of the season and friends called me crazy, but I'll continue to say it. The Lions can win the Super Bowl. Stafford is young, but so was Aikman when he won his first Super Bowl, and like Aikman, Stafford has a supporting cast filled with a few elite players, particularly Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh.

The Very Good

04. New England Patriots - The Patriots may have the best offense in the NFL, but their defense continues to look average at best. Losing Mayo at Linebacker for an extended period of time will likely prevent that defense but getting any better. We'll have a better understanding of what the Patriots are about after these next two home games against the Jets and Cowboys.

05. Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens won ugly on Sunday night but they still beat a Jets team that were considered one of the toughest on their schedule. The Ravens goal needs to be to win the division and take it from there. The defense can carry this team to a home playoff game, but they can't carry them to a bye.

06. Houston Texans - The Texans continue to impress, beating the Steelers this week. A home game this week against Oakland will continue to define whether or not this team is for real, but the win over the Steelers put them in great shape for 12-4, maybe 13-3, and potentially the one seed in the AFC.

07. San Diego Chargers - The Chargers are quietly 3-1 and have an easy game against the Broncos this week. Rivers isn't the MVP candidate many thought he will be, but the quieter this team stays, the better off they'll be in the long run. 3-1 is the best start to a season this team has had in a while.

08. Washington Redskins - The Redskins enter their bye week on top of the NFC East but the signs of Rex Grossman erupting with turnovers are beginning to show. Still, no one expected this team to be 3-1, and they have two weeks to prepare for Michael Vick and the Eagles.

09. New York Giants - The Giants pulled off a cardiac win this week against the Cardinals and they're now 3-1 after a week one loss that had a lot of people writing Eli Manning off. Home games against Seattle and an improved Buffalo, followed by a bye and the Dolphins could have the Giants at 6-1 before their schedule gets really difficult.

10. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are in control of their division and just need to hang on. Alex Smith had his first convincing victory this week and this is a team who could only benefit from a playoff berth moving forward.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Buc's squeaked one by Indianapolis this week but a win is a win and you'll take them however you can get them. I'm not convinced that this is a playoff team, but they'll definitely be around all season.

12. Buffalo Bills - Just when you thought the Bills might turn a corner they go an lose to the Bengals. I think that will be that for Buffalo and they'll be below .500 by Thanksgiving, but I hope I'm wrong. As of this moment in time they're still in first place in the AFC East.

13. New York Jets - The Jets offense looked awful on Sunday night, and this is a team that may be in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs. @ New England and vs San Diego are sandwiched by vs Miami. This team could be 3-4 heading into their bye with games on their schedule remaining against New England, the Giants, @ the Eagles, and @ Washington. There is no room for division game slip ups if they fall to 3-4, and the AFC wild card teams will need to be 10-6 this year.

14. Tennessee Titans - The Titans are surprisingly 3-1 and Matt Hasselbeck looks pretty good right now. The former Seahawk Pro Bowl QB has gone from keeping the seat warm for Jake Locker to giving the Titans a legitimate shot at a postseason berth. The game this week at Pittsburgh is a must win if the Titans want to be playing meaningful football in January.

Hanging In There

15. Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys had another disastrous collapse, causing Romo and company to fall to 2-2. Still, despite the awful loss on Sunday to the Lions, this is a team that is talented, has been in every game until the final play, and can potentially get it together and win their division. They're only a game out of first.

16. Oakland Raiders - The Patriots proved this week that the Raiders are good, but they're not legitimate contenders. Jason Campbell's red zone interception in the second quarter is the leader thus far for most hilarious interception of the year.

17. Chicago Bears - The Bears have to opportunity on Monday Night to bring the Lions down to Earth, and this is a huge game for the 2011 Bears. A loss and the Bears will be playing catch up with Detroit and Green Bay until they're eventually knocked out of the playoffs sometime in early December, a win, and it's a brand new race in the North.

18. Atlanta Falcons - Mediocrity seems to be the defining word of the 2011 Falcons, though disappointment may be the final word. The fact that the game against the Seahawks was a game in the fourth quarter is a bad omen for the Atlanta who face Green Bay this week.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers - They're 2-2 and James Harrison is out indefinitely. The truth is the 2011 Steelers simply aren't very good and they'll continue to linger around mediocrity the rest of the season, living off a reputation that they built in season's past. They were in the Super Bowl last year because the Patriots had a fluke loss and the Colts were beat up.

20. Philadelphia Eagles - The Dream Team are 1-3 right now, but they're not awful. The losses to the Giants, Falcons, and 49ers could have all been wins, but now these next two @Buffalo and @Washington are must wins. If this team fails to make the playoffs this year what do they do?

21. Cleveland Browns - The Browns squandered an opportunity to legitimize their season and now the focus has to be to just get better. This team is probably not a playoff team, but they're not awful either. They need to continue to develop Colt McCoy and eventually get him a go to weapon.

22. Cincinatti Bengals - The Bengals beat a Bills team this week that many expected to roll past Cinci. This is playing hard for Marvin Lewis, a coach that has been on the hot seat for about five years.

23. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers may be losing games but at some point they'll be winning them. Cam Newton continues to prove that he's the real deal and that's good for the Panthers and their fans, they needed it.

24. Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals aren't a playoff caliber team but it's not because of Kevin Kolb. The defense is pretty bad. This is a team that might be able to make waves in the NFC as the season progresses and beyond.

The Dead

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Despite the atrocious output thus far, the Jaguars are doing the right thing throwing Gabbert into the fire. He'll be better for it one day, and so will the Jaguars.

26. Seattle Seahawks - This team isn't very good and due to the 49ers recent string of victory's, the Seahawks 2011 is toast. This team has a long way to go but a Barkley/Carroll reunion in Washington would be a great first step.

27. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs got a win against the Vikings that they probably didn't need, but they're still contenders for Andrew Luck. A loss this upcoming week to Indianapolis would go a long way, a win and this team will either draft Barkley or Jones, or be stuck in average-QB-ville where they've resided since Len Dawson called it a career.

28. Denver Broncos - John Fox put Tim Tebow in for one play on Sunday. The play went for -1 yards and Fox didn't go back to Tebow again. This Tebow thing is going to end badly for all party's involved.

29. Minnesota Vikings - At one point in time Donovan McNabb was without a doubt a top five quarterback in the NFL. McNabb will also end up in Canton one day, and he's probably the greatest Eagles quarterback of all time. Right now McNabb isn't the problem in Minnesota, but he's not the solution either, and once Leslie Frazier makes the move to Christian Ponder that will be curtains on the starting quarterback career of Donovan McNabb.

30. Indianapolis Colts - For the second week in a row the Colts made a game that they were written off in interesting. If Peyton Manning was playing right now the Colts would be 4-0 and in control of AFC.

31. St. Louis Rams - What happens if the Rams go 2-14 and end up with the worst record in the league? Do they draft Luck and trade Bradford? Do they sell the pick for as much as they can get? They could probably get a lot for Sam Bradford as well, and Luck's contract won't be half as crippling as Bradford's. The contract is what makes it something to think about.

32. Miami Dolphins - This is a team that not only needs Andrew Luck, but unlike the Chiefs it looks like they actually want Stanford's current starting quarterback. The question now is, will this team lose enough games? And will Sparano last all season? I say "yes" and "yes."

Rex Ryan, The Media, and Why We Should Respect Our Elders

2011-10-02T22:10:00.000-07:00

At a young age we’re taught to respect our elders, but in our culture we’ve been taught to do just the opposite. Our favorite musicians need to adjust to the latest trends and sell ipods in order to sell a fifth of the albums they sold in their prime. Our favorite actresses fall off the face of the earth, or even worse – into straight to video films, once they hit maternity. Yet no cultural figures become more irrelevant than our favorite quarterbacks of yesteryear.

This offseason Warren Moon refused to hop on the media’s anti-Cam Newton bandwagon and was criticized for it, some even accusing Moon of favoring Newton because of his African American heritage. It turns out that Moon, a Hall of Fame quarterback, was able to see in Newton a skill set that would translate well to the NFL. Moon was right, the majority of the media was wrong.

In 2009, a long retired Fran Tarkenton spoke out against Brett Favre and his penchant for contemplating retirement. Tarkenton warned that Favre would be holding the franchise back from building around a young team, and he would be too much of an attention seeker. Top media figures destroyed Tarkenton and Minnesota fans turned on the only quarterback to take their franchise to the Super Bowl. Tarkenton was likened to the cantankerous old man who does nothing but complain about how in his day everything was better. Two years later, Tarkenton was obviously right. Despite one magical season in 2009 that ended with a costly Favre interception, it is obvious now that the Vikings mortgaged their future for a run with Favre, and now they’re 0-4, coming off of a horrible year that saw the franchise set itself back to where it was in 2006. Tarkenton was right, the majority of the media was wrong.

This past Monday, Joe Namath went on “The Michael Kay Show” on 1050-ESPN radio (where he normally does a Thursday spot) and said that Rex Ryan has his team believing that they’re better than they are, and for that they don’t work hard enough at getting better. Namath called the Jets 34-24 loss to the Raiders “humiliating,” and then zeroed in on Ryan’s constant declarations of magnitude. Namath said that Ryan’s consistent brash talk in regards to his team has his players thinking that they’re champions, when in reality they’re just a team that go to back to back AFC title games.

And Namath is right. Think about it. What if after the devastating loss the 2002 Eagles suffered to the Buccaneers, Andy Reid came out and bragged about winning more playoff games over the past three years than any other team? We would have laughed in his face and Reid may have lost his job after the 2003 loss the Panthers. Yet the national media, a vast majority of the New York media, and the Jets fan-base feed off of Ryan.

Remember Harold Camping? The guy who predicted the world was going to end on May 21st of 2011, and then May 21st came and went so he said it was going to happen in October, 2011? So far that’s what Rex Ryan has done. He’s created a cult of New Yorkers and media people who believe that his predictions are correct, and they’re willing to adjust their mindsets accordingly. Jets fans are no longer the Mets fans of football; a team that expects to lose, they’re now like Yankee fans; a team that expects to win every game, every night. Jets fans have bought into Ryan’s dialogue, bought Mark Sanchez jerseys, and made countless social media impressions about Revis Island, the way Camping’s followers sold their possessions, put up billboard ads, and prayed fervently in anticipation of the apocalypse. An a apocalypse that never came.

What’s even worse is that, according to Namath, the Jets players have joined the cult, and that’s dangerous. People criticize Tom Brady for his arrogance, Aaron Rodgers for flashing a championship belt after a touchdown, or Peyton Manning for his evident emotion, but those three players prepare for every game as if their legacy is on the line. Those players have developed a method to not only win in the regular season, but to win in the post season, and the Super Bowl as well. Ryan’s team demonstrates all of those attributes, but unlike those players, is void of any championship. This is what Namath warned against. Namath feared that unlike his 1968 Jets, who rode Namath’s guarantee of a championship to an unpredictable Super Bowl III victory, the 2011 Jets have lost their underdog hunger and now believe that they can just go out there and beat anybody.

Immediately after Namath’s comments a media firestorm took off. Namath was called all of the things that Fran Tarkenton was called. Some had the audacity to call him jealous of Sanchez’s success, and that Sanchez is the new playboy of New York. 660-WFAN’s Craig Carton destroyed Namath, while other personalities pointed to Namath’s stats having more interceptions than touchdown’s for his career. A few level headed media members such as 660-WFAN’s Mike Francesa pointed out that Namath played in a different era so his statistics can’t be looked at, but Francesa is also billed as anti-Jet, so his defense of Namath fell mostly to deaf ears.

Then Rex Ryan opened his mouth, insinuating that Namath is out of touch at what goes on behind the scenes in the NFL, and that he has no knowledge of how the Jets prepare. Ryan did his best to dance around the subject without putting down Namath, who is to this day the only New York Jet of national significance, but at the end of the day Rex was Rex, and Namath did not do his weekly Thursday spot on 1050-ESPN.

And now the Jets are 2-2 heading into New England. The offense came out unprepared and got embarrassed by a Baltimore team that the Jets needed to beat to get over that regular season hump they’ve been stuck on. On top of that, the Jets looked as bad as they’ve ever looked under Rex Ryan, and Mark Sanchez had a performance that would have made Curtis Painter laugh. The Jets offensive and defensive lines looked horrible, and the bottom line is the Jets looked like a team that is about to spiral into a .500 season.

When a Hall of Fame quarterback has something to say about the game that they excelled at, we should listen, just as we would listen if John F. Kennedy were still alive and wanted to talk about the state of our government. Namath may have played in a different era but he still knows the sport, and unlike Ryan he knows the mentality of a player, and more importantly the mentality of a champion. And for that, Joe Namath was right, the majority of the media was wrong.

NFL Week 4 Picks

2011-09-30T22:50:00.000-07:00

So last week I didn't do so hot, following a 12-4 week with a 9-7 week. That's what you get for thinking inside the box. This week I smell 16-0.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowbpys - This is going to be the most exciting game of the weekend, and I think it will be the coming out party for the Lions.

I'm taking the Lions on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans - Coming off of a road win in Indianapolis that should have been easier than it was, I fully expect the Steelers to lose to the Texans who are coming of a "so close yet so far" type loss to the Saints.

I'm taking the Texans at home.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears - The Panthers haven't played a defense like Chicago's yet, and the Bears really need the win.

I'm taking the Bears at home.

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs - One of these teams has some hope, the other has none. I expect an explosive day from the Vikings.

I'm taking the Vikings on the road.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals - For at least one more week the Bills winning ways will continue.

I'm taking the Bills on the road.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns - A battle of surprise 2-1 teams, this game is also intriguing in it's Hasselbeck vs Holmgren storyline. If the Browns want to win they'll need a big performance from Holmgren's latest QB project. That's a lot to ask.

I'm taking the Titans on the road.

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams - I'm a believer in the Redskins right now and I'm weary on the Rams due to all of their injuries. This is a game that could define the fortunes of either teams 2011.

I'm taking the Redskisn on the road.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles - Whether or not Michael Vick plays, this is a game that the Eagles absolutely have to and should win.

I'm taking the Eagles at home.

New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars aren't very good right now and the Saints are one of the best teams in the league. This game should only go one way.

I'm taking the Saints on the road.

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks - The Falcons schedule finally softens up and they'll take advantage of it. I don't see the Falcons in the playoffs but they won't be worse than 7-9.

I'm taking the Falcons on the road.

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals - This is a big game for both teams. Eli Manning has some good memories in Arizona, much better than those of Kevin Kolb, thus far.

I'm taking the Giants on the road.

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders - The Patriots don't lose back to back games very often under Bill Belichick, and the Raiders aren't really the sort of team you expect to beat quality opponents in back to back weeks.

I'm taking the Patriots on the road.

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers - Orton needs a big game but he'll have to wait until next vs San Diego. The Packers need a blow out for the sake of esteem.

I'm taking the Packers at home.

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers - The Chargers needed this game at home to be this week, given the likeliness of losing Gates for the week.

I'm taking the Chargers at home.

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens - This is a huge game for both teams but simply put the Jets need it more. A loss and their season could spiral downward.

I'm taking the Jets on the road.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Poor Peyton Manning, this is a game that he would have loved to play in. Remember the Monday Night Miracle of 2003? That was his first big critic silencing comeback. I don't see Curtis Painter doing that this week.

I'm taking the Bucs at home.

Jared Allen's Homunculus and The General Manager's Paradox

2011-09-30T13:31:00.000-07:00

**Written by Sebastian Pardo**

His name was CARL PETERSON. You can write that in caps,” said Jared Allen when explaining to 1500ESPN radio why he was traded to the Vikings, who take on his former team the Kansas City Chiefs in this weekend battle of 0-3 teams.

With that statement Allen shakes loose a reminder one of the great paradoxes faced with General Managers in sports.

Allen, an unheralded 4th round draft pick of the Chiefs in 2004, out of obscure Div 1-AA Idaho State, proved to be a revelatory pick. Quickly demonstrating his fierce motor, determination and physicality that would become a trademark of one of the most productive defensive ends in football since.

However, Allen also showed a propensity for immature frat boy behavior. Upon joining the Chiefs he, oh so cleverly, chose the number 69, in part so he could get away with the phrase “Wine’Em, Dine’Em 69’Em” being the official tag line of his short-lived Kansas City restaurant. More worrisome even, was Allen’s two DUI’s, the first in May 2006, and the second in September of the same year, bringing his lifetime total to 3 (For which he would receive a 4 game suspension to start the 2007 season). Coupled with Allen’s Ted Nudgent like bow hunting adventures, along with his brash, head strong, sound-bite-friendly braggadocio lead many to worry in Kansas City’s upper management.

So when Carl Peterson, who Allen says lied to him about a new contract, shipped him to Minnesota after the 2007, a season in which he was an All Pro (remember despite missing 4 games while serving his suspension.) Allen was incensed. Despite a career year, and being a player entering his prime, he was told he wouldn’t be needed in Kansas City anymore.

Upon arriving in Minnesota he was rewarded with the richest contract for a defensive player in NFL history, and unlike the previous season where he was playing with the carrot dangling of a rich new contract, he had his contract. But he also had something new, something he wouldn’t have had should he have stayed in Kansas City. He had the pain of rejection, the pain of being sent packing.

Since the trade Jared Allen has had continued success, reaching double digit sacks in each of the last 4 seasons, making another All-Pro Team in 2009, and a Pro Bowl in 2010. Further more, by all accounts Allen, while still the paragon of manly manliness, has a newfound maturity, and an altruistic side.

Since the trade Allen has become an advocate for Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, raising funds through his “Sack Diabetes” program. In 2009, he was one of 4 players who went overseas in the NFL-USO program, and upon his return founded his own charity: Jared Allen’s Homes 4 Wounded Warriors.

There seems to be a shift in Allen the person, and unlike many NFL players who change teams in search of big money, he’s figured out a way of reaching continued success on the field.

And this raises a paradox.

If Carl Peterson commits to Jared Allen and makes him the highest paid defensive player in NFL history, there is an excellent chance that he never gets the player, and subsequently the person that Allen has become. Instead it’s entirely possible that the large payday serves as a kind of reward for Allen’s reckless behavior, both crippling any potential growth from him as a person, and likely watching as it erodes his ability on the field.

For Allen, the rejection by the Chiefs, seemingly caused him to evaluate his life, and re-prioritize. Maybe as a Chief he never goes on the USO tour, where he says “It has been one of the best experiences of my life - something I’ll never forget.” And he is never forced to put into perspective the service, and real sacrifice his Grandfather and younger brother who both served in the Marine Corp. gave for something higher than Wining, Dining and 69ing.

And for General Manager Carl Peterson, he is faced with a loose-loose scenario, whereby he can no longer have the player that Allen will become, but yet will be tormented by the success Allen will go on to have. To the home crowd Allen is evidence of Peterson’s incompetence, weather it’s letting a good player get away, or overpaying for a troubled player who is a bust.

However the paradox really only exists for General Managers, the torment of that executive decision relies entirely on a judgement call about the deep primordial homunculus living inside the spirit of the player. Does this player have the grit, to turn himself around or do we risk letting the player learn somewhere else, if at all. For a GM, that decision is difficult, and can change sport history. However, one can see why it seems safer to err on the side of letting someone else take the risk.

The paradox is hardly a paradox for the player, rather it is the same fundamental proposition we all face on a daily basis. One that is often, and easily put into the phrase: “life is 10% what happens, and 90% how you respond.”

Don’t expect any “Thank Yous” from Allen, to be headed toward Carl Peterson. By the tone and tenor of his interview with 1500ESPN, Allen certainly doesn’t seem ready to point the finger at himself. But perhaps that’s due to Peterson’s lack of faith in Allen’s ability to turn it around off the field, and maintain a high level of performance on it. And to be fair Allen’s transformation is not all that surprising, and perhaps is a testament to his natural maturation into adulthood, more than a major reformation. But then again, Jared Allen does still wear number 69.

Ultimate 32 Man Roster

2011-09-27T22:07:00.000-07:00

So I took on the task of creating a team of 31 players and 1 coach filling every major roster spot with one player from every team. The following are the results.

HEAD COACH

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots - Belichick has more Super Bowl rings than any active head coach and he's also one of the ten greated head coaches in the history of the league.

OFFENSE

QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - You can make a case for Drew Brees as the best quarterback in the league not only right now, but over the past five years.

RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - Peterson is without a doubt the best running back in the league right now and probably has been since he came into the league in 2007.

FB Ovie Mughelli, Atlanta Falcons - Mughelli doesn't get a lot of attention but he's one of the best full backs in the league and Matt Ryan and Michael Turner know it.

WR1 Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - Larry Fitzgerald is the best wide receiver in the NFL so you have to take him here. He may actually be the best receiver since Jerry Rice.

WR2 Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - Maclin has emerged as the Eagles go to guy inside and is becoming one of the leagues best #2 receivers.

WR3 Brandon Gibson, St. Louis Rams - You may not know the name now but Brandon Gibson has a chance to get his name out there with all the injuries in St. Louis.

TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys - Witten has been an elite tight end for a while now and the University of Tennessee prodigy shows no signs of slowing down.

LT Jake Long, Miami Dolphins - Long is the best tackle in the NFL and the Dolphins made the right decision drafting him over Matt Ryan.

LG Ryan Lilja, Kansas City Chiefs - Lilja is getting older but he can still play left guard pretty well.

C Maurkice Pouncey, Pittsburgh Steelers - Pouncey was Pro Bowler last year as a rookie. He has a chance to become great.

RG Chris Snee, New York Giants - Chris Snee has been one of the most underrated players in the NFL over ther past 6 years and that's saying something for one of the only guards in the league who may actually be close to a household name.

RT Michael Oher, Baltimore Ravens - Though he's probably more famous for being the main character in a Sandra Bullock movie, Oher is actually one of the leagues best right tackles.

DEFENSE

LDE Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts - Over the past half decade Robert Mathis has emerged as not only a perennial Pro Bowler, but also as the best left side pass rusher in the league.

LDT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions - Suh is the scariest defensive player in the NFL and is only getting better.

NT B.J. Raji, Green Bay Packers - At 337 pounds, Raji is the perfect size for a nose tackle.

RDE Adrian Clayborn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - One of only two rookies to make the team, Clayborn is a solid pass rusher who should develop into a solid player in Tampa's cover 2 scheme.

OLB Von Miller, Denver Broncos - Miller may well be on his way to defensive rookie of the year, and one day he may become a defensive player of the year. He's the real deal.

OLB Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers - He may be hurt, but when healthy he's an elite outside linebacker.

ILB Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers - He's the best linebacker in the league, not much
else to say besides that.

MLB David Hawthorne, Seattle Seahawks - At middle linebacker Hawthorne makes all the necessary plays to be above the league average at that position.

LCB Darrelle Revis, New York Jets - At this point in time Revis is the best defensive player in the NFL. He had to make this team.

RCB Jonathan Joseph, Houston Texans - Joseph was a great pick up by the Texans this offseason and he's one of the two or three best right side cornerbacks in the NFL.

SS Chris Hope, Tennessee Titans - It was hard to find a place for a Titan on this roster but Chris Hope is a solid strong safety. He's not as good as he was six years ago, but he's still adequate.

FS LaRon Landry, Washington Redskins - Landry is a playmaking free safety who can
take over a game from that position.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders - Janikowski is the best kicker in the NFL. Not much else to say besides that.

P Mike Scifres, San Diego Chargers - Scifres is one of the most underrated players in the NFL and he's the rare punter who can actually win games with his toe.

LS Garrison Sanborn, Buffalo Bills - Sanburn makes the team because someone had to be the long snapper, but he's no bum either. The former Florida State player has been with the Bills since 2009.

H Kevin Huber, Cincinnati Bengals - He has zero botched snaps.

KR Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns - Since 2007 Cribbs has rivaled Devin Hester as the best return man in the league.

PR Devin Hester, Chicago Bears - He's getting older but the University of Miami product is still the best kick returner in the NFL and may one day actually be a Hall of Famer.

ST Montell Owens, Jacksonville Jaguars - Owens is a part time full back who was a Pro Bowler last year as a special teamer. He holds the franchise record for career special teams tackles.

So what do you think? Do I do a good job? Do you think I did awful? What does your team look like? Feel free to post yours.

A Look at the Potential Hall of Fame Class of 2012

2011-09-27T16:47:00.000-07:00

The Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2011 was lead by Marshall Faulk, Shannon Sharpe, and Deion Sanders and included Richard Dent, Chris Hanburger, Les Richter, and Ed Sabol. Though it was a star-studded Hall of Fame class, several Hall of Fame "locks" were excluded, making this years Hall of Fame race all the more interesting.

This year the only newly eligible Hall of Fame locks are coaches Bill Parcells and Bill Cowher, and guard Will Shields. Cowher won't get in this year because it is widely anticipated that he'll be on the sidelines next year. Bill Parcells may have wait one more year, though I think he'll get in this year.

Will Shields deserves to get in first ballot having never missed a game in 14 seasons and being selected to 12 Pro Bowls.

So of the newly eligible candidates that gives us Bill Parcells and Will Shields. Now onto the logjam that is the other three or so players that will be inducted.

Here's a look at some of the future Hall of Famer's who are eligible and have still yet to hear their name called: Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, Andre Reed, Willie Roaf, Cortez Kennedy, and Dermontti Dawson. If I had to guess what this years Hall of Fame class is going to look like I would say Bill Parcells, Will Shields, Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis, and Dermontti Dawson. It's hard to choose one of those three receivers, though if I had to I'd pick Reed. Shields and Dawson were dominant at their position and while it's hard to get into the Hall of Fame as an offensive lineman, those two deserve it.

Next year Michael Strahan, Larry Allen, and Warren Sapp will secure three spots in the Hall but that could be the year that Reed and Carter sneak in.

Week 3 Power Rankings

2011-09-26T22:18:00.000-07:00

Only two elite teams this week and deservedly so. The rest of the league is a mess, but it's starting to sort out.

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers is quietly having an MVP season while the Green Bay Packers are quietly off to the best start in the NFL. They have the Lions breathing down their neck but something tells me that this team is going to be at number one all year. They just have that feel.

02. New Orleans Saints - The Saints are a team that look like they're improving with each week. Their offensive fire power is scary and this past weeks win against Houston is the sort of win that will only make you stronger as the season progresses.

The Very Good

03. Detroit Lions - I've said it since the preseason; The Lions can win the Super Bowl. If somehow the Lions win their division they'll probably have a first round bye, which would mean the Lions entire road to the Super Bowl would be indoors. This team has a solid defense, a potent offense, an emerging quarterback, and one of the best defensive players in the league. They'll be tested these next three weeks @ Dallas, vs Chicago, and vs San Francisco, but this team is for real and they're scary.

04. Buffalo Bills - Justice given to the last remaining unbeaten in the AFC. This week will tell us whether or not the Bills have turned that corner. If they beat the Bengals then they're ready to be taken seriously, and if they lose then they're a 7-9 team that will probably take a step back next year. That's just the way things go in Buffalo. They can score on anybody.

05. New England Patriots - The Pats lost a tough one to Buffalo in a game where they simply got outplayed. Tom Brady has never been a high volume interception quarterback so it goes without saying that if Brady throws four interceptions in a given game, chances are the Pats are going to lose. I don't think Brady will have another game that bad this year.

06. San Diego Chargers - The Chargers squeaked by the Chiefs this week and you're starting to get that feeling that this what the 2011 Chargers are all about; fighting off injuries, playing close games, and winning the ones where they minimize mistakes. It should be noted that Antonio Gates, the second most important player on the Chargers, has not been healthy.

07. Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens are 2-1 and looking to solidify themselves as contenders this week as they face the Jets. It's a huge regular season game for John Harbaugh and a win could erase some of the stigma that he can't win the big regular season game.

08. New York Jets - Will Rex Ryan stop being an idiot and stop deferring the ball every time he wins a coin toss? Did he not stand on the sidelines for the 2010 AFC title game, week one SNF, and this past week? Three of the teams last four games have started with the opponent getting a touchdown on an opening drive after Ryan deferred. Also, some of the blame has to go on Sanchez who struggled on third down (and fourth) all game long.

09. Houston Texans - The Texans hung in there with the Saints in New Orleans and now they get the chance to play a beatable Pittsburgh team in Houston. This is the game that will define where the 2011 Houston Texans' season goes. A win and the Texans may be a 13-3 first round bye team. A loss and the Texans could end up 10-6 and one and done to a team like Pittsburgh in the first round.

10. New York Giants - It seems like every year the Giants find themselves in the top ten this time of year, I'll wait until December before I start proclaiming this team to be for real. Eli Manning only has two interceptions through three games and all jokes aside, that's how this team is going to win. If they minimize mistakes they'll be a playoff team.

11. Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo has silenced some of his doubter the past two weeks and has rebounded nicely. This is a team that could easily be 3-0 right now as they prepare to face the intimidating 3-0 Lions. A word of advice for the Cowboys; prevent Mr. Suh from ending Mr. Romo's 2011.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs did what they had to do on Sunday and beat the Falcons. There isn't much to say about this team besides that they're never going to be an easy win, but they probably aren't good enough to take over the NFC South just yet.

13. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders had a huge win this week beating the Jets, but the schedule just gets tougher this week with New England. A win here and the Raiders become legit contenders.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers could barely squeak by the Colts this week, and this is truly a team that we have no clue how to define. We'll know a lot more after this week in Houston.

15. Washington Redskins - The Redskins lost a tough one this week and we may look back on Monday night later in the season and ask "what could have been?" For now the Redskins are 2-1 and still control their own destiny. A win this week at St. Louis would get them feeling good heading into their bye week.

Hanging In There

16. San Francisco 49ers - Jim Harbaugh has his team at 2-1 right now as they head to Philadelphia to play a battered Eagles team. I think the 49ers can and should win their division, but you never know. Alex Smith has been adequate but can still get better.

17. Tennessee Titans - After week one a Jake Locker countdown began. These past two weeks Matt Hasselbeck has done everything possible to hit the snooze button a few times. A win this week, and visions of a division championship may run free in Volunteer State.

18. Chicago Bears - The Bears are 1-2 by way of the most difficult three week schedule in the NFL. This week things should get a little easier as the Bears defense gets a shot at rookie QB Cam Newton. A win here and the Bears can get right back in it, though a repeat as division champions is likely out of reach.

19. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Vick continues to prove how valuable he is, but this is a team that is endanger of falling apart. A win this week home against San Francisco could get the season moving in the right direction, but if Vick is out for three to four weeks as initially reported than it will be up to "Mr. Dream Team" Vince Young to right the ship in Philly.

20. Atlanta Falcons - I know it's early in the season, and I know people refuse to believe it because ESPN told them otherwise, but the Falcons are probably not that good. They're a 9-7 team at best, maybe 8-8. This is deserving of it's own article but I honestly don't believe that Matt Ryan will ever be "elite" either.

21. Cleveland Browns - They may be the worst 2-1 team in the league, but at least they're 2-1. Colt McCoy has looked like an improving quarterback in the first three weeks of this season as he's lead the Browns on game winning drives two straight weeks. This is a team that wished it could have week one against the Bengals back, but a win this week at Tennessee would make up for that. If they get it then they may have a chance this year.

22. Arizona Cardinals - Because they play in such a putrid division the Cardinals still have a shot to go to the playoffs, but jeez, they're really not that good. They need to make a statement this week against the Giants if they want to be considered the contenders a lot of people were claiming they were in the preseason. Kevin Kolb looks to be adequate and that's a positive.

23. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton got the "first-win-monkey" off of his back this week despite having the most underwhelming performance of his young pro career. The schedule heats up and he probably won't get another one for a couple of weeks, but this is a team that the entire league are taking seriously, which means Cam Newton has done what Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Blaine Gabbert, and Andy Dalton have not.

24. Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks got an impressive win against the Cardinals this week that put Pete Carroll's squad right back in the thick of things in the worst division in sports. Still, this is a team that isn't very good, with a quarterback situation that just screams for Landry Jones or Matt Barkley.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars have already committed the rest of this season to Blaine Gabbert and if Sunday was any indication it's going to be a rough 2011 for this franchise. You feel bad for Maurice Jones Drew who is starting to learn what it's like to be Steven Jackson and be a good back with his playoff years behind him. It could be worse, you could be Frank Gore.

26. St. Louis Rams - I know they've been plagued with injuries but you have to really try to play in the NFC West and simultaneously be legit contenders in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Somehow the Rams are pulling that off this year. They would never draft Andrew Luck, but this isn't the season they were supposed to be having. The schedule (vs Wash, bye, @GB, @Dal, vs NO) doesn't get any easier and this team could easily be 0-7 before they start division play the first week of November.

The Dead

27. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts showed a lot of heart this week, and again proved Peyton Manning's value. With Manning the Colts put that game away in the first quarter, without Manning things on offense look disgusting. Time fore the Colts to seriously consider bringing in a QB. Just out of respect for Freeney, Mathis, Wayne, Saturday, and Addai who are playing their hearts out.

28. Denver Broncos - Is it Tebow time yet? If Orton's performance on Sunday doesn't get us closer then nothing will. Until that time does arrive this team is unwatchable. Maybe John Elway, a Stanford guy, wants Andrew Luck to be his heir.

29. Cincinatti Bengals - Week one is starting to look more like a fluke. Not much else to say about this team besides that they're bad and their fans know it. The only question to ask is if Marvin Lewis is still their coach in 2012?

30. Minnesota Vikings - Three games, three losses, three blown leads in the second half. The Schedule softens up and they could be 4-4 entering their bye, but that's a best case scenario. This is a team that is not going to the playoffs this year.

31. Miami Dolphins - How do Dolphin fans feel when they see the Bills pass them by? Their next three weeks consist of @San Diego, bye, @ New York Jets. Ouch. This is a team that needs Andrew Luck and may actually get him.

32. Kansas City Chiefs - To the Chiefs credit they did play hard against a better San Diego Charger team. Their next two games are against winless Minnesota and at winless Kansas City. If they lose those two than this team may not win a game in 2011.

NCAA Week 4 Picks

2011-09-22T08:52:00.000-07:00

San Diego St @ 22 Michigan - This is a no brainer trap game for a Michigan team that has won some pretty emotional games. Some people think the Brady Hoke leaving San Diego St to take over at Michigan is an advantage for Michigan since he knows the players so well, but college football is an emotional sport, and this game at the Big House is going to be San Diego St's Rose Bowl, and the most important football game most of these kids ever play in. Michigan should win because their roster is better, but it'll be close.

I'm taking Michigan at home.

14 Arkansas @ 3 Alabama - Arkansas are good, but Alabama are national championship contenders... and they're playing at home. I like Arkansas this year to be good but not good enough to beat the Crimson Tide at home.

I'm taking Alabama at home.

2 LSU @ 16 W Virginia - LSU were my preason prediction to win it all this year and they're starting to look pretty good. This week W. Virginia found out that the SEC wants nothing to do with them, so that could fuel the WVU players, but do the student athletes really care about that stuff? I suppose they may as a matter of pride, but not enough to fuel a victory over a team as good as LSU.

I'm taking LSU on the road.

7 Oklahoma St @ 8 Texas A&M - The Aggies are incredibly lucky that this year happens to be a home game against the Cowboys. A&M is historically one of the toughest places to play, and I expect their defense to benefit a great deal from the crowd noise.

I'm taking Texas A&M at home.

11 Florida St @ 21 Clemson - Clemson are coming off of an emotional win while the Seminoles are coming off of a painful loss. Florida St. are simply the better team in this game. Clemson always lose games like this.

I'm taking Florida State on the road.

NFL Week 3 Picks

2011-09-22T07:47:00.000-07:00

So lat week I went 12-4 with my picks, missing on the Vikings over the Bucs, Raiders over the Bills, Ravens over the Titans, and Eagles over the Falcons. Still, I'll take 12-4 for a week 2. Anyway, here are my week 3 picks.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals - This is a game that could go either way but the 49ers have the better roster. If San Francisco want any chance of winning their division this is a game they will have to win.

I'm taking the 49ers on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers - A battle of the two 1995 expansion teams that almost got to the Super Bowl in 1996. Neither franchise has a chance at going to the Super Bowl in 2011, and this is one of the hardest games to pick this week. The Panthers have fought hard in two straight weeks and in what will be a battle between rookie QB's Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, I'm going to have to side with the Heisman/BCS national championship quarterback here.

I'm taking the Panthers at home.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings - The Lions are 2-0 and one of the hottest teams in the league, a win this week would cement their status as contenders. The Vikings on the other hand are 0-2 and a loss this week would pretty much end their season and give Coach Frazier no reason to stick with McNabb. The Vikings have played two close games, both of which included the Vikings blowing leads late in the game. I think the desperate Vikings will take this one.

I'm taking the Vikings at home.

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans - After a disappointing week one, the Titans really came out and shut up their critics last week. This week Tennessee is home against a Broncos team coming off of a big win. This is another hard game to pick, but in games like this I often like the home team.

I'm taking the Titans at home.

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns - The Browns got embarrassed week one by losing to the Bengals, while the Dolphins had perhaps the two toughest games to start the season in the league versus the Patriots and Texans. The Dolphins are notoriously better on the road than they are at home.

I'm taking the Dolphins on the road.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles - We still don't know for certain if Michael Vick will play, but let's assume he does. I think this game will be closer than a lot of people think, and I believe that the Giants will come out to play for this one, but they simply have too many injuries. Until the Giants get healthy I can't expect them to go into Philadelphia and win.

I'm taking the Eagles at home.

Houston Texans @ New Orleans Saints - This is definitely the early game of the week. If the Texans want to make a statement and put themselves in contention for a championship, this is the game to win. Meanwhile for the Saints, this is just another tough home game that the Saints are going to need to win if they want to get that first round bye. I can see this game being close, I can also see it being a blow out. Either way I see the Saints winning.

I'm taking the Saints at home.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills - For years the Patriots have had the luxury of being surrounded by a division of incompetent opponents. The past three years the Jets have come on, the Dolphins continue to flounder, but it seems as though the Bills are finally starting to turn the corner from UFL team to NFL team. It'll be good for the league if the Bills are relevant again, but they're not relevant enough to beat the Patriots, not yet.

I'm taking the Patriots on the road.

Baltimore Ravens @ St. Louis Rams - A match up of Super Bowl XXXIV and XXXV winners that a lot of people would have loved to see in 2001. The 99 Rams vs the 00 Ravens would be one of those all time classic games. I'd take the Rams, though. As for the 2011 Ravens vs the 2011 Rams, neither team is as good as their decade-ago-selves, but the 2011 Ravens should probably end the 2011 Rams season on Sunday. Maybe not totally end it since the Rams play in the NFC west, but an 0-3 start will be hard to comeback from, even in that division.

I'm taking the Ravens on the road.

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders - The Heidi Bowl. The Raiders suffered heartbreak last week, and this could be a trap game for the Jets who now have to travel across the country to Oakland. This game will be a tougher win for the Jets than the Jaguars game, and I wholeheartedly believe that the Jets can lose this one. I just don't have the guts to call it.

I'm taking the Jets on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers - Nothing cleans off the stain of a tough loss versus a conference rival better than a home game against the worst team in the league. If the Chargers lose this one then they're in trouble.

I'm taking the Chargers at home.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears - The Packers have squeaked by two weeks in a row. This week the Packers head to Chicago to take on their arch-nemesis lead by Jay Cutler. This is a game that can go either way, but I'm smelling upset. The Bears are home coming off of a tough loss. The Packers offense is great, but they don't put up points on defenses like the Bears the way they put up points on the Saints. The Bears need this game. If Cutler can limit his mistakes to one, and the rest of the team can make zero, the Bears will win.

I'm taking the Bears at home.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks - This is a big game in the NFC West picture, and I think it's curtains for the Seahawks. Pete Carroll's defending division champions just don't have the identity or leadership that they had last year in Matt Hasselbeck. The Cardinals have a superior offense, and the defenses aren't that far apart.

I'm taking the Cardinals on the road.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - One of these two teams are going to take a big step forward in proclaiming that they're for real. The Falcons have had a tough start to the season, but they probably would be 0-2 right now if it wasn't for a Michael Vick concussion. The Bucs are coming off of an emotional comeback last week. I like the team riding the bigger emotional high, especially at home.

I'm taking the Buccaneers at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts - Like the Chargers vs the Chiefs, if the Steelers lose this one than they have bigger problems than we anticipated. I think the national spotlight could help the Colts keep it interesting for a half.

I'm taking the Steelers on the road.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - The surprise 2-0 Redskins head to Dallas to take on a beat up team that could easily be 2-0 as well. It's the sort of game that if the Redskins win than they instantly become contenders in the NFC. Unfortunately for the 'skins I can't see that happening this week.

I'm taking the Cowboys at home.

Why the Colts Should Hope for Luck: How the Colts are Lucky to Have a Bright Future.

2011-09-20T07:10:00.000-07:00

***Written by guest columnist Sebastian Pardo***

Sports when at their most beautiful, illustrate complex and profound life lessons, that can often much more cleanly, and clearly express the complicated bitter-sweet nature of life. While this might be an over-simplification, the 2011 season for the Indianapolis Colts could be a lesson in patience, and illustrate the often cop-out philosophy of “things happen for a reason”.

The Manning-less Colts are finally facing the question they’ve been too scared to consider. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

The result is a team, spoiled by Manning, that has been neglected, and left to rot. For years Manning through shear obsessive perseverance has spackled in the void of both leadership, and perhaps talent to keep the Colts relevant in the regular season, and more importantly to the Owner/CEO Jim Irsay, as a brand.

The Colts this year are living “A Christmas Carol” like season. This year they are getting a glimpse of the Ghost of Colts’ Future, and like Scrooge come 2012, they can shudder and shake off the frightening spectre, and apply the lessons learned to save their franchise.

And that’s exactly why they should select Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck.

Manning, will be age 36 at the start of next season, coming off two neck surgeries, that left him without power to his throwing arm. However, the argument shouldn’t surround the presumption that Manning will not recover, because in fact I believe the more persuasive argument, is not what Manning will or will not be able to do if he returns, but rather what drafting Luck would mean for the Colts, the city of Indianapolis, and the future of the organization.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something that would keep them relevant for another 15-20 years. When Manning came to the Colts in 1998 he ushered in a decade of success, taking a team with virtually no sustained success since the Johnny Unitas era, and transformed them to a NFL record breaking team, with 7 straight seasons with 12 or more wins, all while winning a Super Bowl and starring in Oreo commercials. Manning MADE people Colts fans. People who didn’t live in Indiana or the Midwest, he made them a national, and perhaps international brand. This from a team previously known for it’s managerial incompetence, and it’s bitter exit from Baltimore.

Manning is consistently in the debate as the best quarterback not only active, or alive, but perhaps ever. But, for all that, there is something that Andrew Luck can do that Peyton Manning can’t, and that’s provide upside. At 36 Manning is close to the end of his career, and whether Luck will be better than Manning is relatively irrelevant, simply by virtue of Manning’s age, and Luck’s potential. Of the two there is only one quarterback who could possibly be winning a Super Bowl in 2019.

In fact of the two, I believe there isn’t a quarterback who could win a Super Bowl before 2014. If Manning comes back, the team around him simply doesn’t have enough to win. Other teams have continued to build on success, and Manning and the Colts already had an aversion to winning big games, something that won’t be remedied with an even more feeble coach, weaker supporting cast and a stronger Super Bowl field.

The Colts have an opportunity to do something few teams do, by drafting Luck. They can bid Manning a fond farewell, and unbox a brand new proto-Manning in consecutive seasons. Where as most teams suffer the void of a quarterback of Manning’s caliber for decades, (read: Miami Dolphins) the Colts would immediately reload for another run at relevancy. Just for that chance at another decade of winning, of keeping the Colt’s brand in commercials, making more Colt’s fans, they should draft Luck.

Terry Bradshaw in 1982 underwent offseason elbow surgery, missing the first 14 games of the season, after which he returned, and upon throwing a TD pass felt his elbow pop again, missing the remainder of the season. However, in the 1983 offseason, he was adamant he could continue playing and the Steelers, ever so reverent of their great hero, planned for his return. Only to pass on local hero Dan Marino in the first round, and see Bradshaw never play football again. While it’s obvious in retrospect that Bradshaw could only play for a handful of years even if he could’ve recovered from a second elbow surgery, the decision certainly seemed difficult at the time. Imagine what Dan Marino would have done for the Steelers from 1983-1992, where the Steelers had little success, and suffered it’s first loosing season since 1971.

For the Colts’ it is a much riskier proposition, the Steelers have a legacy, wide ranging and passionate fan base, coupled with stable well run ownership that goes back generations. The Colts are really only 12 years or so removed from being bottom feeders, further more they’ve only been in Indianapolis for 26 years, they just simply don’t have roots that go as deep, and could risk sinking back into mediocrity. They desperately need to do something to stay relevant post-Manning, their entire brand relies on it.

While it is a difficult thing to dump the franchise hero, and perhaps see him suit up for another team, it would be both the best football decision and business discussion the Colts could make. Perhaps trade players like Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney in order to start building parts around Luck, much like how Faulk was sacrificed to make way for Edgerin James.

As hard as all those decisions will be to make, and as much as I think they should do everything in their power to get Luck, which would set them up for another 20 years of being an elite franchise, something that would solidify them amongst the sporting elite, there is still one possibility.

Manning returns completely healthy.

If Manning returns, having faced his sporting mortality, he will certainly be more motivated than ever. In this scenario the Colts have a rejuvenated Manning, for another 3-4 years, coupled with a lesson learned, and a high draft pick to help build for one last all-in push that can transition to the Post-Manning era, all the while hoping he wraps up his career like Elway. Perhaps the lesson is so well learned, that they look at a team like Green Bay, and draft a quarterback in two to three years time to groom as his replacement, in hopes of a smooth transition.

But the Colts have already squeezed so much out of Manning, are they really desperate to get 3 more years of him at the cost of 15-20 years of potential excellence. Is Manning going to get better from here on out? Will he stay as healthy as he has for the last 11 years? Will facing retirement give him a new found drive, and allow him to rise above crippling post-season mistakes and win multiple Super Bowls? Even if he does, in 5 years he’s gone. And the Colts’ are back to facing the same question. What happens when Peyton’s gone?

What makes the decision difficult, is that Luck is touted as a once in a generation prospect, the “next” Peyton Manning, the “next” John Elway. Will the quarterback who is available in two to three years come with the same outstanding character, physical talents and star power/marketing opportunities? There could be, sure, one never knows. But the likelihood is slim. Even slimmer if Manning is successful, and yields a low first round draft pick. Luck isn’t just any number one pick, this isn’t a player having a good combine, he’s a star. To me the odds of Luck being a bust are lower, than the chances of Manning returning to win a Super Bowl. And to me that’s the final arithmetic, now it’s a matter that the Colts must grapple with, can they do the emotionless cost benefit analysis that drives players to drop the borderline cliche, passive-aggressive “it’s a business” when pressed at news conferences. Or will they be looking back in 10 years wondering, what if?

For the Colts, “things-happen-for-a-reason”. And perhaps Manning’s ultimate gift to Indianapolis could be that his body gave out on him the exact year Andrew Luck became available, and not a year when a team has to talk themselves into a Quarterback being worthy of a number one pick. For Manning if he never plays again he goes out on top, without the slow Farvian fade-out, and the Colts take Luck, he pans out and together go on to become part of the international sporting elite. Or like Favre, Manning continues play, but the Colts, having seen their grim future, decide to take a once in a generation star college Quarterback for the second time in 13 years. Freeing Manning to play for a team looking for the final piece of the Super Bowl puzzle where he can then ride off into the sunset, as a hero, hall-of-famer, and possibly erase the doubts about him by winning a Super Bowl outside of Indianapolis.

Ultimately, this could be the best thing that happens to both the Colts and Manning.

So for the Colts it’s a lesson in life that often we as individuals can be too impatient to learn. Sometimes, we have to do the hard thing, sometimes we have to take a step back, and do what’s best, even if it hurts, even if it’s emotional. In our lives it’s hard to see things as clearly in ourselves as we see it in other people. And likewise, even if the Colts can recognize the Steelers mistake in 1983, it doesn’t mean they are immune to making the same mistake themselves. Sometimes in life one has to go backwards, and suffer in the short term in order to set up a brighter future. Hopefully the Colts can recognize this.

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

2011-09-19T21:54:00.000-07:00

The season is up and running and things are starting to sort themselves out. There is a clog in the middle of the league, but I think the top five is sorted out... For now.

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers - Another week, another close one for the defending champs, but the important thing is that they're getting the wins. Their road to the franchises first division title since 2007 is doable, but a first round bye is this teams goal. I think they'll get there.

02. New Orleans Saints - The Saints proved this week why you can't read too deep into a week one road loss. New Orleans came back this week and dominated a Bears team that people were starting to get high on. This is a team that will be in contention for a first round bye, and now they have confidence that they can go into Lambeau and win. Drew Brees isn't afraid of the cold, he went to Purdue.

03. New England Patriots - A big win over the Chargers mixed with a loss by the Ravens puts this team in cruise control for a first round bye. This is a team that has tremendous holes, but their holes are similar to those of the Saints and Packers. The worst case scenario for this team is losing the division to the Jets, who quietly look like the second best team in the AFC.

04. New York Jets - Rarely does a sloppy performance turn out to be so dominant. The Jaguars are not as bad as they looked, but the Jets defense is as good as it looked. This is a team that looks focused. They need to win the division if they want to go to the Super Bowl, I can't say that enough.

05. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles would have beaten the Falcons had Michael Vick not gotten knocked out of the game. This is a fast team, probably the fastest in the league, and they are as good as advertised. Last night Michael Vick proved that his value is not overrated and he is one of the most important players in the league to his team. If he's there in January the Eagles will have as good of a shot as anybody.

06. Houston Texans - The Texans have done a good job winning the games they need to win to get to the playoffs and potentially earn a first round bye this year. Their schedule plays out where they can lose all four games that they'll likely be underdogs in, and still go on to have a home game in the divisional round. The defense is much better with Wade Philips.

07. San Diego Chargers - It was a loss that hurts, but a loss that the Chargers can learn a lot from come January. San Diego outplayed the Patriots for four quarters but made stupid mistakes that cost them the game. The Chargers couldn't find a way to stop the Patriots tight ends, which will be a theme of the 2011 season. This is a veteran defense with some new additions that will get better as the season goes on. Despite the loss, this team is elite, they can beat anybody.

The Very Good

08. Baltimore Ravens - For some reason under John Harbaugh this team has never been able to build off of emotional wins. I'm not saying that it's Harbaughs fault and it's definitely not Joe Flacco's fault, but it's something that needs to be noted when it comes to this Ravens team. The loss to the Titans hurt this teams pursuit of homefield in the AFC and forced the AFC North race to go back to square one with all four teams sitting at 1-1. It's early in the season but I still expect the Ravens to pull away with this division at some point.

09. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers rebounded from their awful loss to the Ravens with a nice win over the Seahawks. This was a win that the Steelers needed, and next week only gets easier when they host the Colts. Health will be the thing to watch with this team as the season moves on. Roethlisberger has looked shaky, but he has always been the sort of player who gets better as fall ages.

10. Washington Redskins - Rex Grossman continues to win and has resorted back to looking like good old Rex Grossman of 2006. Rex makes some nice plays, some really bad plays, but when the game is over his team gets the "W." I don't know how long this team can sustain, but for now they're 2-0 in a division where every win counts. The Monday night game at Dallas could decide where this team heads the rest of the season.

11. Chicago Bears - The Bears lost big to an opponent that is better than they are. That being said, the Bears can make a run in the NFC if they can find a way to recpature the division title. Jay Cutler has the least amount of weapons to work with of any top tier NFC teams quarterback, but he's also blessed with the best defense of the bunch. A win at home against Green Bay could send shock-waves around the NFC.

12. Detroit Lions - No defensive player since Lawrence Taylor has had as big of an immediate impact on their team as Ndamukong Suh has as he has single handedly changed the culture and the attitude of the Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford has more talent than Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford and the rest of his contemporaries, and having a weapon like Calvin Johnson helps. I got ripped by friends and peers when I said in the offseason that the Lions can win the Super Bowl. I'm not saying that was a true statement, but so far they don't look like the same old Lions.

13. Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta have another test this week as they trave to Tampa Bay to play a team that is coming off of a nice comeback win. If the Falcons are to win the NFC South for the second year in a row then they're going to need to win this game. The offense showed flashes of brilliance against the Eagles defense on Sunday night, and you can't use Michael Vick not being on the field as an excuse for that.

Hanging In There

14. Buffalo Bills - If the Bills played in any other division in the AFC I would think that they have a shot, but considering they play in a division with the two best teams in their conference every win simply keeps the team afloat for one more week. This weeks game against the Patriots is a real test; If the Bills win then they'll join the ranks of the elite, if they lose then they'll live to die sometime in the month of October.

15. Dallas Cowboys - It was almost doomsday for the Cowboys on Sunday, and if Jim Harbaugh doesn't decline a penalty on a 55 yard kick chances are we're talking about the 49ers here and Dallas are toast. This is the sort of team who when they find their identity will be amidst the best teams in the NFL, it's just a matter of whether that happens sooner or later that will determine whether or not this team is a Super Bowl contender. They'll need a healthy Dez Bryant if they want to beat the Redskins on Monday night.

16. New York Giants - A sloppy win is still a win, but the Giants have a lot of problems. Eli Manning makes the sort of mistakes that could hold any team in the league back, and at some point we need to dismiss 2007 as being far enough in the past that we can't count it today. After all, Mark Rypien, who from 1991 to 1993 looked better than Eli Manning ever looked, wasn't given the benefit of the doubt a few years later when he was backing up Tony Banks. Nonetheless, if Eli can find a way to top the Eagles this week, the Giants will soar up the rankings.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs almost saw disaster strike this past week against the Vikings but rebounded incredibly well and pulled off a great win. They now hold their divisional fate in their hands this week as they prepare to face the Atlanta Falcons at home. It's a winnable game for Morris' young team, and we'll find out a lot about where this team is right now on Sunday.

18. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers came so close to thier most impressive start to a season since the Mariucci, Garcia, Owens, and Hearst years. First year coach Jim Harbaugh learned the hard way that NFL teams such as the Cowboys aren't the same as UCLA, Cal, or Arizona State, and a ten point cushion in the fourth quarter isn't something you should feel comfortable sitting on. Harbaugh won't make that mistake again and I feel like he's done a good job changing the attitude of the 49ers franchise. This is a team that expects to win for the first time in years.

19. Arizona Cardinals - The NFC South is the sort of division that boasts mediocrity as a fashion, and the Cardinals define that more than any other team. They have one amazing, hall of fame player, who is probably the best wide receiver in the league, and the second most dominant receiver of all time. Other than that, the team is mostly comprised of average to below average players at every single position, yet somehow this team will be alive well into November. They have the opportunity to make the division race a little easier if they can go into Seattle and get a win on Sunday.
20. Oakland Raiders - What a tough road loss to a the Bills that was for the Raiders on Sunday. Despite the loss there is still plenty of hope for the Raiders, but this is not a team that can make a dent in the playoffs. As good of a win as it was for the Bills, this loss proves that the Raiders aren't ready to take that next step into the NFL's competitive elite.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars - An ugly loss dropped this team into dissray. Blaine Gabbert will eventually be under center, thus making this a rebuilding year. That was the plan when they cut David Garrard, right? Jack Del Rio is a savvy coach who has been finding ways to keep his job for years.

22. Tennessee Titans - An incredible win over the Tennessee Titans. If Tennessee can keep this up they may have a shot to win the division. Matt Hasselbeck found success targeting his new best friend Kenny Britt, and with a run game lead by Chris Johnson this team can have a shot. I don't thing they're in the Texans class talent wise, but this is a roster trying to win now.
23. Cincinnati Bengals - A loss to the Broncos on Sunday but the undertone was they fought back. This team won't be very good this year, but the players are playing hard for coach Marvin Lewis and that's a good sign. More than one current Patriot and another current couch potato can say.

24. Cleveland Browns - A win over the Colts is nice but the real story of the game was Colt McCoy. A week after he spent much of the day on his back, McCoy bounced back and showed signs of why Browns fans truly believe in him. Though his upside in merely Matt Hasslebeck with swagger, Colt McCoy could be the franchise quarterback that Cleveland have been looking for since 1999.

25. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton looks like the real deal. With each passing game that resembles this past weeks games, 2012 looks more and more like a year that Saints, Falcons, and Bucs fans might want to forget. This team could be scary good next year. They're already pretty dangerous.

26. Denver Broncos - Though they beat the Bengals, this may have been a moral loss considering how close it was. The Broncos came into the season with an expecation to win now. You don't go with Kyle Orton over a first round quarterback if you're building for the future. This season should get ugly, the question is will it get ugly next week at Tennessee, the following week at Green Bay, or the week after that at San Diego. Either way Tim Tebow should be starting by October 23 at Miami, a game in which the Dolphins will honor Tim Tebow and the 2008 Florida Gators beforehand.

27. St. Louis Rams - This team looked average against the Eagles and pretty bad against the Giants. Given, those are are two pretty tough games, but things should only get tougher as the Ravens come to town this week. Their division is bad, but an 0-3 start would likely mean this team isn't headed for the playoffs. Not if Arizona beats Seattle and San Francisco beats the Bengals.

28. Minnesota Vikings - Everyone is piling on Donovan McNabb as the Redskins seemingly continue the streak of addition by subtraction of McNabb. I don't think McNabb is the problem in Minnesota, but I do think Leslie Frazier is an overrated head coach. For a few offseasons he was the big name, but maybe there's a reason he never got a job. Teams have started 0-2 and gone on to the playoffs in the past.
29. Seattle Seahawks - The only thing that keeps this team alive is that they plan in such a mediocre division. Pete Carroll has a vision, and part of that vision was to tear apart a roster plagued with mediocrity. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the next two years considering Seattle were nowhere close to a championship when he took over.

The Dead

30. Miami Dolphins - This a talented team with no direction. Admittedly, I didn't get to watch the game this week because I was so preoccupied with the Chargers, Cowboys, and Broncos, but from what I did see, Chad Henne continues to be the on the field problem. He may develop into a solid player one day, but this is a franchise that wants to win now.
31. Indianapolis Colts - With every passing week Peyton Manning's legacy as the most valuable player in NFL history solidifies. That's saying a lot considering he's not on the field. The Colts looked better this week, but if they're not going to beat the Browns at home, who will they beat? Maybe the Chiefs, a division game or two, and there's a slim chance they beat the Bengals and maybe the Panthers.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have scored 10 points in two weeks while opponents have up up 89. Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry are out for a while. This is a franchise that needs an identity in the form of a franchise quarterback; I think they'll get one in the 2012 draft.

Favre to the Colts Actually Makes Sense

2011-09-19T15:26:00.000-07:00

If it wasn't about the money, if it was simply about trying to get one more ring, Brett Favre would be wearing a horseshoe on his helmet right now. It's not Favre's fault, it's mostly Bill Polian's fault, but the Colts could have avoided an awful 0-2 start, and could have created the craziest media storm in NFL history, by opting with an old Brett Favre over an old Kerry Collins.

Is it too late? The Colts don't have a young quarterback worth trying out right now. Curtis Painter has shown everyone from Jim Irsay to Rex Ryan that he's not an NFL starting quarterback, and Kerry Collins has been nothing short of awful in his first two starts as the Colts QB. The Colts roster right now has a lot of veterans and young players who can win now, but an 0-3 start will be tough to come back from, even in the AFC South.

But if you bring in Brett Favre now, thing could start to get better. Unless Peyton Manning has a miraculous recovery the Colts are going to lose to the Steelers on Sunday and fall to 0-3, but after that the Colts schedule softens up. @ Tampa Bay, vs Kansas City, @ Cincinnati, @ New Orleans, @ Tennessee, vs Atlanta, vs Jacksonville, takes the Colts into their bye week. With Kerry Collins you're looking at best a 2-5 record in those games, taking the colts to 2-8 and eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving. With Favre, 5-2, 4-3 is more likely, putting the Colts at .500 or close to it around Thanksgiving, and right in the middle of an AFC playoff race that should be wide open at the bottom.

Colts fans seem up to it, and they paid 750 million to build Lucas Oil Stadium and have filled it every game it's been open. Indiana sports fans have too much high school and college basketball, as well as a lot of college football to worry about, so much so that rooting for a losing team in a down year isn't something they're interested in doing. No teams fans are interested in the sort of futility that the Collins/Caldwell Colts have presented.

A lot of people have said Favre would be bad for the Colts and pointed out reasons like PR issues. What PR issues? Last I checked the Colts were one of the most well respected franchises in the NFL, and considered to be the single most Christian franchise in professional sports. If by "PR issues" people mean the hiring of Jim Tressel, then I guess the Raiders, Seahawks, Dolphins, Panthers, and every other franchise has some serious "PR issues" to deal with right now.

The other things I heard were money, better QB options, and locker room issues. As for money, the Colts gave Kerry Collins $4 million this year and still remained $8 million under. Favre can't expect 2010 salary numbers, so I'm pretty sure the Colts could have, and still can afford him. As for better QB options; Carson Palmer would require the trading of a second round pick, and David Garrard is still not better than an old Brett Favre. Finally, is Brett Favre really a bad locker room guy? I know Thomas Jones complained about him, but other than that I never really heard anything bad about him. I know that guys like Jared Allen loved him, and the Packers players always respected him.

Favre is the only hope in Indianapolis right now. It's the only hope for the 2011 Colts, the only hope for Jim Caldwell's job, and a move that could help Bill Polian restore some of the general managing respect that he has rapidly lost since the Colts Super Bowl XLI victory.

That is unless the Colts don't want to win this year, which may very well be a possibility. Drafting at the bottom of a decades worth of drafts have left the Colts with a thin roster of talent, and perhaps Polian understands that the only way the Colts win again in this Manning window is with a team made up of the talented veterans he already has, and top flight young talent. Similar to the Shanahan, Elway, Davis Broncos of the late 1990's.

No Reason For Jacksonville Not to Make the Move to Gabbert

2011-09-19T15:23:00.000-07:00

On Sunday the Jaguars got destroyed by the Jets in part because of Luke McCown's four interceptions. I say "in part" because any football fan could tell you that the Jets are just much better than the Jaguars. The more interesting thing about the game was that Jack Del Rio didn't hesitate to throw rookie first round quarterback Blaine Gabbert into the fire once McCown threw his fourth interception. Now it's in Del Rio, Gabbert, and the Jaguars' best interest to keep Gabbert on the field for the duration of the season.

Normally I am a proponent of letting a quarterback sit for at least the first half of his rookie season. This formula of watching for a while helped quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, and even Eli Manning get adjusted to the speed of the NFL, the players they're surrounded with, and the rulebook (didn't work too well for McNabb though, maybe he should've waited). But then Ben Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a 22 year old, and since then the patience for quarterback development has waned to the point where Tim Tebow not starting week one in his second year means he is officially a bust in some pundits eyes. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, and even Vince Young have validated the Roethlisbergerian (Rahth-Liss-Burr-Gare-E-an) technique of quarterback upbringing.

Right now, Gabbert's fellow rookies Andy Dalton and Cam Newton are doing just fine starting on teams far worse off than Gabbert's Jaguars are, and starting a rookie no longer means abandoning playoff hopes, yet another result of Roethlisberger's iconic 2004 season. If the Jaguars don't want 2011 to be a wasted year they'll let Blaine Gabbert take every snap from here until their season is officially over. This will not only let Gabbert experience the growing pains that have helped quarterbacks like Josh Freeman and Colt McCoy get more comfortable in their second seasons than they were as rookies, but it will also give the Jaguars their best chance of winning the AFC South in 2011.

NFL Week 2 Picks

2011-09-17T09:38:00.000-07:00

So Like a dimwit I forgot to make my picks last week. This week, despite a brutally busy schedule, I refuse to forget, so here are my picks.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins - Two teams that expect to be better this year and one team will start their season 2-0. This game is going to come down to who wins the battle of quarterbacks. With LeRon Landry coming back the Redskins defense should be even better this week than they were last week. It's going to be up to Rex Grossman to build off of Cam Newton's dominant passing performance last week against the Cardinals seemingly atrocious pass defense.

I'm taking the Redskins at home.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts - Two teams that began the preseason with a lot of hope for 2011 enter a week 2 elimination game. The Colts looked awful last week and despite coming home I can't see them beating the Browns.

I'm taking the Browns on the road.

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills - Who would have thought that this would be a game we would actually show some interest in? I really don't know what either of these teams are about yet, but I think the Raiders have the better roster.

I'm taking the Raiders on the road.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints - This is probably the most intriguing early game. The Bears had an impressive win over a Falcons team that I expect to take a step back, meanwhile the Saints lost by a yard to the defending Super Bowl champions. The Saints need this win if they want to think about a first round bye.

I'm taking the Saints at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets - Last week the Jaguars ran the ball and controlled the clock to beat Tennessee. The Jaguars can do that and perhaps get Sanchez off of his game, but I still don't think the Jaguars have enough firepower to keep the Jets off the field long enough to make a difference for four quarters.

I'm taking the Jets at home.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions - The Chiefs are probably the worst team in the NFL, while the Lions are a potential playoff team. This should be a beating, if it's not then it's the same old Lions.

I'm taking the Lions at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneer @ Minnesota Vikings - These were two teams that could have made a statement in week one but instead had painful losses. The loser of this team will need to take a long look in the mirror and that scenario would be far more painful for the veteran Vikings than it would be for the young Bucs. Adrian Peterson is due for a big day after being held without a score last week.

I'm taking the Vikings at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans - The Matt Hasslebeck era in Tennessee could be short lived as the Ravens, coming off a dominant win over the Steelers, come to town. The only way the Titans win this one is if they control the ball and get a lot of big plays and turnovers. I just don't see that sort of perfect storm brewing.

I'm taking the Ravens on the road.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Simply put this is the sort of game an NFC West team doesn't need to win, but it's the sort of game an AFC North team needs to win. The Seahawks don't stand a chance in Pittsburgh, and if they win then the Steelers season is over.

I'm taking the Steelers at home.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers - Whenever I see this match-up it brings me back to my youth when I first fell in love with football as a first grader. The 49ers are coming off of a big win last week but the Cowboys are going to be hunting for their first win of the season, a win that they'll desperately need. If the 49ers can win this one then both teams 2011 fortunes will fork. The Cowboys can't afford for that to happen.

I'm taking the Cowboys on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos - The Broncos should win this game and if they don't they have bigger problems than quarterback billboards.

I'm taking the Broncos at home.

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins - A statement game that the Texans can't afford to lose. The Dolphins are a team in transition with a lame duck coach; a win this week could change that, but it would require shutting down a potent offense on a short week.

I'm taking the Texans on the road.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots - A game that deserves it's own article. A first round bye is potentially on the line in this game and the Patriots simply don't lose home regular season games under Bill Belichick. If Norv's team comes in ready to go the Chargers can win this game. A loss would hurt New England more than it would hurt San Diego.

I'm taking the Patriots at home.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons - The Vick Bowl II, the first real Vick Bowl. The Falcons are a team that are going to take a step back this year while the Eagles are a playoff team. This is the sort of loss that could put by prediction about the Falcons into motion.

I'm taking the Eagles on the road.

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants - Two teams that need to forget about week one. A win here would help either team get their season going, but both teams are incredibly beat up. The Giants losses hurt more than the Rams losses, but the Giants roster is still probably a little better than the Rams roster. Home field should help the Giants.

I'm taking the Giants at home.

You Can Win With Tony Romo (But Probably Not in Dallas)

2011-09-15T08:02:00.001-07:00

On Sunday night Tony Romo had another fourth quarter meltdown that cost the Cowboys the game, thus giving the news media reason to criticize his play all week, most of which has been unjust.

Does Romo wish he didn't fumble the ball? Sure, but Romo made the right decision. In opting for the safest play call, Romo caused a turnover, but it was a turnover that could have happened to any quarterback in the league. Of course not fumbling would have put the game away, but the fumble itself isn't what cost the Cowboys the game.

Was it probably a bad idea targeting an injured Dez Bryant and picking on the best defensive player in the league? I'd say so, but if the coach is going to put the player on the field you need to utilize him. Some say that Bryant missed the route, but it was still a risk a more cautious quarterback might not have taken. Though Romo had some success against Revis over the course of the game, there is only so much you could do to Revis before you pay for it. Throughout his career, Revis has been the sort of player who gets better as the game goes on, and if you're going to get to him it's going to happen in the first half.

This week summed up Tony Romo's stint with the Cowboys: offensive success, a lot of great plays, but a few costly mistakes. There was no Wade Phillips to blame on Sunday, no T.O, and no grumpy Bill Parcells. This was Romo's loss, with Romo's coach, and it looks like it may very well be time for Tony Romo and Dallas to go their separate ways.

The problem with this is that Dallas are built to win now so they don't have time to wait for a Landry Jones or Matt Barkley. In order to part ways with Romo they would need a better option to go with to win in 2012, and franchise quarterbacks don't come on to the market every year, and when they do it's for a reason. The exception would be Joe Montana to the Chiefs or Brett Favre to the Jets, but it doesn't look like we have any situations like that... Yet.

But let's say we did. Where would Tony Romo go, and who would want him? In a quarterback free agent class led by Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Vince Young, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Charlie Whitehurst, it would seem as though Romo would be the blue chip on the market and the first domino to fall. I anticipate Fitzpatrick staying in Buffalo, but those other quarterbacks leaving should open up jobs in Denver, Miami, and Seattle, three potential destinations for Romo.

Miami, like Dallas, are built to win now. Next year they'll probably have a new head coach that is brought in to help sell tickets. The coach's name could be Gruden, it could be Fischer, it could even be Billick. Whoever it may be it'll be a coach who throughout their career has opted toward veteran quarterbacks. Enter Romo the Dolphin, which would likely be the best case scenario for Romo's career and mental health. In the AFC East no one will expect the Dolphins to do much. If he could beat New England and the Jets once each he'd initially be a hero. If he could get the team to the playoffs he'd be a savior. In a city that has embraced LeBron, Tony Romo would no longer have the weight of the world on his shoulders in Miami, and I could see it being a wonderful fit.

Then there's Denver, with head coach John Fox who has a rule against QB's under the age of 28: he hates them. Denver is a mess for any quarterback to step into, but it's really not that bad. The Denver defense should be competitive by this time next year, and the wide receivers and running backs are adequate. Romo in Denver would instantly put Denver back in the race that Kyle Orton has held them out of, but he'd be thrown into a poor situation with the expectations and popularity that Tebow (who would now presumably be gone) thrown onto his shoulders. This situation is not ideal but it could work.

Then there's Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks. Going to the NFC West would be great for Romo, but it might be hard for Jerry Jones to send him there. If this happened though, Romo would instantly have a chance to rebuild his career and his self esteem by picking apart the Cardinals and 49ers. Carroll seems to be looking for a quarterback with some athleticism, and Romo has enough, plus several other intangibles that would instantly turn the Seahawks into divisional favorites. The weapons are poor in Seattle, but who ever thought that Miles Austin would become what Romo has helped him become?

Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert prevent Romo from heading to Minnesota or Jacksonville, and there is an outside chance he could end up a 49er, but again I don't think Jerry Jones wants Romo in the NFC. That leaves Cleveland as the final potential destination for Romo, but they seem like the sort of franchise who would think rookie before they went veteran.

Wherever Tony Romo ends up next year, in this scenario everyone benefits. The Cowboys would have the Montana or Favre type (hint, hint) and Romo would be somewhere in the AFC with less pressure and a decent shot to take his team to the playoffs.

Now Is Not The Time For Tebow To Start

2011-09-13T18:47:00.000-07:00

Let's get one thing straight: I think that there is hope for Tim Tebow in the NFL. Tebow possesses the talent to win with a team in a way that few quarterbacks in the NFL can win; By exciting his teammates and getting other players around the league excited to play with Tim Tebow. You can honestly only say that about a few players around the league namely Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees (I exclude Peyton and Rivers because their teams don't tend to bring in outside offensive weapons though I'm sure people like Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith would love to see them lining up under center).

A team built around Tim Tebow can win. It can't win tomorrow, but over time a team built around Tim Tebow can win a Super Bowl. It would require bringing in players excited about Tebow's athleticism, who are willing to get used to a lefty quarterback. It would require an offensive line built to protect a quarterback like Tebow, and it would require a strong vertical passing game. These are the sort of things that made Carolina a good fit for Cam Newton and Philadelphia a good fit for Michael Vick. The franchises, the coaches, and the players are all willing to make the adjustments to facilitate towards an athletic quarterback. Everyone in the locker room understands that the quarterback may get creative on any given play, and the coaches design their plays around such creativity.

John Fox, the head coach in Denver has no creativity. He likes his offenses the old way. Run the ball up the middle and throw high percentage passes. Throughout his career he's gone to battle with quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, Vinny Testaverde, and Matt Moore. If this were an SAT question, which quarterback would follow that lineage, Orton or Tebow?

If you answered Orton, you would be correct.

Orton is as "safe" of a quarterback as there is in the league. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, there is little upside to Orton. Orton will be an adequate quarterback who if the parts around him are effective will win football games. Like Delhomme, Testaverde, and Moore, Orton can indeed lose a football game for his team. Throughout his career Orton has been an awful red zone quarterback, and that sort of play has translated into what he has done in Denver. Orton is a career 79 quarterback rating and a losing record in Denver. But he's a John Fox type quarterback.

John Fox is trying to build a team that will win via defense and adequate offense. He wants to minimize risks on offense and win games 24-17. Fox wants to have big plays on offense in the passing game and he wants everything to go according to plan. That's why he didn't go after Tebow in 2010, and that's why he doesn't want Tebow in 2011. John Fox and Tim Tebow are simply a bad fit.

But eventually Tebow will have to start in Denver. The Broncos aren't going anywhere and whether it be week 3 or week 13, eventually Tebow will unseat Orton and that's where interesting thins will happen. Specifically, Broncos President John Elway sits in the stickiest seat in the cafeteria here.

If Tebow takes over for Orton and is horrible, there will be nothing lost. Tebow will be traded or cut and the Broncos can move on with their lives. If Tebow succeeds, than Elway and Fox will be forced into a marriage that neither party wants. Of course both party's want to win, but neither wants to restructure their "blueprint" around Tebow.

The best case scenario for the Broncos is that Tebow comes in, shows signs of success, but the Broncos still manage a top 10 pick in a draft with a few great quarterback prospects. Under this design, Broncos management can sell their fan base on the promise and poise of Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, or maybe even Ryan Tannehill and still trade Tebow to a team like Seattle, Miami, Oakland (though an in division trade could spell disaster), or Minnesota for a second round pick. All four of those teams are franchises willing to "take risks" and all four of those coaches aren't afraid of QBs with a tendency to ad lib.

In order for Tim Tebow to succeed in the NFL he needs to be given the right opportunity. Had Michael Vick been thrown into the Herman Edwards Jets he would have failed miserably. Tebow needs an environment where an athletic lefty Quarterback will be given the opportunity to make his own plays while surrounded by players who want to play with him. It will eventually happen in the NFL, just not Denver.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

2011-09-13T10:13:00.000-07:00

Power rankings are a silly thing, but they're something that we as sports fans have come to love. We like to rank things, mostly because it gives us something to debate. Though some things on here will be debatable, the method behind my power rankings is that I'm trying to predict who will win the Super Bowl in a 1-32 order.

So here are our first rankings of the actual season. Elite are the teams I think have a real shot at going to or winning the Super Bowl. The Very Good are the teams I think have some shot, but are probably not going to the Super. Hanging In There are the teams who aren't quite eliminated, but in likelihood won't even go to the playoffs. And The Dead speak for themselves, they have no shot.

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers - The Packers beat the Saints on Thursday night and once again Aaron Rodgers made the quarterback position in the NFL look too easy. This team has a great shot to repeat as Super Bowl champions as long as Rodgers is under center. I can't say enough about how good Rodgers is right now, besides saying he's the best quarterback in the league right now. This team is going to need that bye if they want to repeat.

02. New Orleans Saints - Sure they lost this week, but their effort against the Packers in Green Bay showed that this team is for real. The road to a division title shouldn't be too challenging for the Saints, and I think they're looking forward to a rematch vs Green Bay, it doesn't matter where. If Rodgers is the best quarterback in the game right now, than Brees is a close second. He does the most with the least to work with.

03. Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles looked good against the Rams on Sunday, but this is a team that needs to simply stay healthy and win their division. It's going to take another two months before this team gels, so the focus needs to be on keeping their division opponents an arms length away.

04. San Diego Chargers - On one hand the Chargers had a sloppy win against an inferior opponent. On the other hand the Chargers got a win in September. The way this team has started their seasons in the Norv Turner era, I think you take the win and move on to the next one at New England. This could be a real statement game for Rivers and company.

05. New England Patriots - The Patriots offense looks scary with their tight ends, though the running game still leaves much to be desired. They're the AFC's version of the Saints, and if these guys can get a first round bye then they may get back to the Super Bowl. Brady is right up there with Brees and Rodgers and can get anything done.

06. New York Jets - They showed heart and character in their come from behind win over the Cowboys. Some people want to say the Cowboys gave it away, and that may be true, but the Jets kept trying. Romo doesn't fumble or throw the interception if Rex Ryan doesn't have his team playing at 100%.

07. Baltimore Ravens - It may have been a Week 1 win by a quarterback with four road playoff victories, but that was the biggest win of Joe Flacco's career. If the Ravens can stay healthy then they will win this division and probably get a first round bye. They can beat any team in the league when Flacco plays well.

08. Chicago Bears - I wrote this team off in the preseason and I may have been terribly wrong. The Bears embarrassed the Falcons in a way that the franchise hasn't been embarrassed since Joey Harrington was the quarterback. If the Bears are going to win the NFC they're going to need to follow the Ravens mold and win because they have a great defense with a potent offense. They played the Packers well last year in the NFC title game, with a healthy Cutler a rematch might go the other way.

09. Houston Texans - Don't look now but the Texans have a real shot to go deep into the AFC playoffs. Their schedule plays out where they can afford to lose the tough games and still compete for a first round bye. Wade Phillips 3-4 defense looked great on Sunday, all be it against a beaten Colts team. The real strength of this team is that they may have the best offensive line in the NFL that no one knows about. They're a team that New England, Baltimore, and the Jets wouldn't want to see in January.

The Very Good

10. Detroit Lions - This team can win the Super Bowl. I wrote it in my pre season rankings and I'll write it again. This a young team though, and they'll likely make enough mistakes throughout the regular season to prevent themselves from going to the playoffs.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers will bounce back from their loss to the Ravens, but this team doesn't look like the sort of team that can get back to the Super Bowl.

12. Atlanta Falcons - I'll write their week 1 loss off for now, but if they lose to the Eagles then this team will need to look inward, and Matt Ryan will need to finally get the criticism he's deserved for two years.

13. Washington Redskins - I may later feel stupid for reading into their week 1 win over a poor Giants roster, but the Redskins have a shot to get back to the playoffs. Rex Grossman isn't a joke, though he is prone to boneheaded mistakes.

14. Dallas Cowboys - The key to the Romo and Garrett era's will be bouncing back from that painful week one loss. Jason Garrett coached a good game and I think he'll have the Cowboys ready to go week two.

15. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers took a big step in getting back to the playoffs by winning the opener to the Jim Harbaugh era. This division is made up of four equal teams and if the '9ers want to win it they're going to have to win games like they did Sunday.

16. Oakland Raiders - Their division win streak continues. The key to this teams season is going to be going 5-1 in their division and going 5-5 elsewhere, if they can do that than the Raiders will play their first playoff game since Super Bowl XXXVII this January.

Hanging In There

17. Buffalo Bills - This may be the highest the Bills get in the power rankings this year, and their week 1 mauling of the Chiefs may have taken the Bills out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Still, the NFL is better when the Bills are relevant, and hopefully they can give the Jets and Patriots tough games this year.

18. New York Giants - This has to be the lowest the Giants will fall this season, right? Probably not. This roster is bad and it's time for a serious overhaul in New York this offseason. The GM is overrated, the coach has lost his control of the team, and the media needs to start placing blame on the quarterback. Eli's mistakes are becoming inexcusable.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars - The division is within reach. Not much else to say about this team other than even if they do make the playoffs they'll have no shot at going anywhere. I expect things to fall apart at some point in October for this franchise.

20. Arizona Cardinals - They may have won their game against the Panthers but they let a rookie QB who looked average at best in the preseason throw for over 400 yards on them. If Cam Newton can do that in week one, what will Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Michael Vick be able to do in January? Kevin Kolb looks adequate and this team can win the division.

21. St. Louis Rams - I wouldn't say a loss to the Eagles in week 1 ended their season because it didn't. It's up to Sam Bradford to take this team as far as he wants to take them. Is he ready yet? I doubt it. The rest of the division got better.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs lost a tough one to the Lions, but fortunately for them every other team in their division lost. I still expect a step back year for this team considering that they're no on the rest of the leagues radar.

23. Cincinnati Bengals - A big win over the Browns. A few more wins like this and the Bengals will find themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and Andy Dalton will continue to have a starting job in the league. If you didn't watch the game, Dalton had little to do with the win.

24. Carolina Panthers - We'll find out what this team is all about this week. I'd love to think that the game against Arizona was a sign of things to come, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. This is a team thinking about next year, but it's good to see them on the right track.

25. Minnesota Vikings - I thought this was a playoff team but they did everything possible to lose on Sunday. Their season, and McNabb's respect around the league, are on the line against the Bucs this week.

26. Tennessee Titans - This is a team that has a shot to go to the playoffs if everything falls their way the rest of the season. The division isn't great but this team is bad. They'll probably end up third in their division.

27. Seattle Seahawks - It was a tough loss, but the division is still wide open. Things could get ugly in Seattle really soon. There may be a Carroll/Barkley reunion in Seattle on the horizon.

28. Miami Dolphins - I know they got embarassed by the Patriots, but the final score is misleading of the actual game. The Dolphins aren't that bad, nor are they that far away from contending for the playoffs. That being said, this is a team in transition and the fans understand that; Hence they probably won't sell out many games.

29. Cleveland Browns - Their season is on the line against the Colts this week. An easy 2-0 has quickly turned into doom for this franchise that simply can never catch a break. They can't protect Colt McCoy and that should make for an interesting matchup against the Colts All-Pro defensive ends. The loser starts thinking about next year.

The Dead

30. Indianapolis Colts - If Peyton Manning isn't the most valuable player in the history of the NFL then I guess I forgot my NFL history. This team is awful without Manning, who has been the heartbeat of that franchise since 1998. A loss on Sunday and Caldwell, the Polians, and the great Donald Brown will start putting their homes up for sale, and Gruden and Fischer will start bidding on who gets to coach Act III of Manning's career.

31. Denver Broncos - The Broncos season looks over. Orton's red zone offense issues have continued. John Fox is too conservative and uncreative to go with Tim Tebow, but if anyone in Denver could raise the dead, it'd be Tebow.

32. Kansas City Chiefs - I knew they'd be bad, I just didn't know how bad. They're first overall pick bad.

2011 Season Predictions

2011-09-02T16:22:00.000-07:00

Making predictions before an NFL season usually results in one and only one thing: looking stupid. More than any other league, the NFL is close to impossible to predict, given there will always be four or five teams that completely surprise us. Who thought the Chargers would miss the playoffs last year and the Chiefs would make it? How many people thought the Bucs would have the sixth best record in the NFC? Did anyone with common sense really predict the Raiders to go 6-0 in the AFC West last year?

Most people's predictions look like clones of the previous season. I'll use some knowledge of football history to predict turnover in teams.

AFC

For all the talk of turnover, the AFC has been pretty consistent with a majority of the teams they send to the playoffs. Over the past three years the Jets, Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens have pretty much steered the conference, with only the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Titans snatching up a playoff run each in that three year span.

Out west I feel completely confident predicting the Chargers. I love their schedule, and I think this is the year that they land the one seed again.

Up north I think the Browns have a chance, but they'll fall short to the Ravens who will finally get a playoff home game for the first time since 2006 (pretty crazy for a team that has played seven games since that divisional round loss to Indianapolis in the '06 playoffs).

Down south I feel confident eliminating Tennessee and Jacksonville, and as of this moment in time I honestly believe Peyton Manning will be ready to go week one, if he is I'm riding the Colts to another division title, if he's not than I think this may be the year the Texans break away. The Texans defense is somewhat improved, but look out for the Colts defense to be vastly improved.

Finally, the east could be a three team race this year. I don't love New England's off season moves, but I love their head coach and think that the Dolphins and Jets don't have it to overtake the Pats just yet.

For the AFC wild cards I like the Browns and the Texans. I know it sounds outrageous but if you look at their schedules, they're pretty favorable. If Peyton Manning is injured for a significant time, I'd put the Jets in the wild card with the Texans winning the division.

WILD CARD WEEKEND

Colts/Texans over Browns

Patriots over Jets/Texans

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Colts/Texans over Ravens

Chargers over Patriots

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Chargers over Colts/Texans.

So that's where I stand on the AFC. I've got the San Diego Chargers finally breaking through, in an AFC title game that will undoubtedly stage two hilarious head coaches.

NFC

Turnover in the NFC is constant. In 2010 only the Saints, Packers, and Eagles repeated as playoff participants, as opposed to the AFC's Patriots, Jets, Ravens, and Colts. In 2009 only the Cardinals, Vikings and Eagles repeated as playoff participants. In 2008, same song different chorus with only the Giants returning to the playoffs. In 2007 the Cowboys, Giants and Seahawks returned to the playoffs, and in 2006 only the Seahawks, Giants, and Bears returned to the playoffs. Do you get where this is going? Usually three teams return to the playoffs in the NFC, with the exception to the rule being less than three, not more.

Out west I like the Rams. I think the best quarterback will win this division, so it should come down to Arizona and St. Louis. I think the Rams have the defense, but I won't be shocked if the Cardinals return to the playoffs.

Up north, I think the Packers will return to the playoffs, but health will play a large part in the puzzle. The hunger for a ring isn't there, and last year they took a beating. I think Minnesota will be back, the Lions will be solid, and the Bears are destined for last place in the division.

Down south I love the Saints and hate the Falcons chances. The Bucs will trend south, and the Panthers will be a top five pick.

Finally, out east I'm not buying the Eagles, but I'm buying the Cowboys instead. I love the fact that it's been a quiet offseason for Dallas, with the team getting ready for the return of Tony Romo. The Cowboys were hot at the end of last year, and I think that'll carry over into a division title.

The Eagles will make the playoffs as a wild card and they'll be that third repeat team in the playoffs, while either the Vikings or Lions will be the sixth. Gun to my head right now I'll take the Vikings.

WILD CARD WEEKEND

Eagles over Rams

Packers over Vikings

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Cowboys over Eagles

Saints over Packers

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Saints over Cowboys.

I think that the Saints get back to the Super Bowl and Drew Brees has the ultimate chance in NFL history to get revenge. I think that the Saints will beat the Chargers and the NFC will win their third straight Super Bowl.

Here's where I think the awards will stand:

Comeback player: Tony Romo
Coach of the year: Leslie Frazier
Offensive player of the year: Adrian Peterson
Defensive player of the year: Ndamukong Suh
NFL MVP: Philip Rivers
Super Bowl MVP: Drew Brees

Other bold predictions:

AFC Pro Bowl QB's: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers... BUT the game ends up being played by Colt McCoy, Matt Schaub, and yes... Tim Tebow.

NFC Pro Bowl QB's: Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees... But the game ends up being played by Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford.

Accessing 15 High Profile Quarterbacks 25 and Under

2011-08-11T17:49:00.000-07:00

Since 2008 there has been an influx of young Quarterbacks entering the league and making an immediate impact. That season, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both helped their teams get to the playoffs as rookies, and the following season Mark Sanchez did the same with the New York Jets. This past season saw college football icons Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy change the fortunes of the dwindling St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns, and it’s no surprise that in the 2011 draft, six teams drafted quarterbacks in the top 36 picks.

Right now there are fifteen big name quarterbacks under 25 in the league. Thirteen of them were drafted to be franchise quarterbacks. What I’m going to try and do a little here is project where I see these quarterbacks going. I’m not infaliable, I once thought Matt Leinart would turn the Cardinals around and that Cade McNown would be the class of the 1999 draft. That being said I also was on the side of Rodgers over Smith, Manning over Leaf, McNabb over Couch, Flacco over Brohm, Cutler over Young, and everybody else over J.P Losman. I’m just a football fan who watched all of these players in college, loves to study quarterbacks, and has a great appreciation of the history of the position.

Listed alphabetically:

Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (Age 23) – If I had to project one of these quarterbacks to be the best of the bunch I would choose Bradford. If he can stay healthy he’ll be great. In college, no young quarterback with that much raw talent showed that much poise since Peyton Manning. What may hold Bradford back is the injury question; his final season as a Sooner was plagued by a shoulder injury which he attempted to comeback from, but never regained his footing at the college level. Last year, his first as a pro, he again shadowed Manning in poise, and almost took lead the Rams to the playoffs. Projecting Bradford is easy; he’ll be a playoff QB as long as he can stay on the field. Right now he is far and away the best quarterback in the NFC West, and I don’t think that will change anytime soon.

Brian Brohm, Free Agent (Age 25) – Had Brohm come out of college in 2007, the Louisville product would have become some franchises future QB. Instead he stuck around an extra year and in 2008 was drafted in the second round as an insurance policy in case Aaron Rodgers didn’t pan out. Right now, Rodgers is the defending Super Bowl MVP, while Brohm’s career is in limbo after spending the past season and a half in Buffalo backing up QB’s with the last names Edwards and Fitzpatrick. I project that Brohm will land on a roster this season, but his only chance to ever become an NFL starter is going to be by following Fitzpatrick’s footsteps and performing well when given a chance. To this point, Brohm has had a few chances and his career will likely head the way of former Louisville prospect turned flameout Dave Ragone.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers (Age 23) – Of the 2010 QB class, some considered Clausen to be the most pro ready because of the system that he played in. Based on Clausen’s performance last year versus those of Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow it’s evident that Clausen was either less pro ready than those players, or far less talented. The Panthers believed that Clausen would improve so much so that they used the first overall pick that Clausen helped them obtain to draft another quarterback on this list, Cam Newton first overall. The good news is that not only has Clausen kept his number (2, which Newton at one point coveted), but as of this second in time he has kept the Carolina Panthers starting job. I project that at some point Clausen will lose the job, but he’s far too young to give up on. After this season Clausen will likely be on the market for cheap, and another team in search of a quarterback may take a look at Clausen instead of going through the draft. I don’t see any future for Clausen in Carolina, but I think he’ll stick around the league for awhile.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (Age 23) – Selected in the second round to be the Bengals successor to Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton is an undersized QB who played on a great college team in an average college conference. I give Dalton a very small chance to succeed in the NFL, not only because of his size and lack of skill, but also because he got drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, and as Carson Palmer cruelly found out, it’s a hard place to play. Unfortunately for Dalton, he can’t sit out this season and sign elsewhere next year. I project that Dalton will lead the Bengals to the worst record in the NFL this year, and next year Andrew Luck will be the starting quarterback in Cincinnati, as Dalton gets what we’ll call the Clausen treatment.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age 23) – Last year Josh Freeman looked like the real deal. The only thing that could get in Freeman’s way is playing in a division that already has Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and now Cam Netwon. It’s never going to be easy getting to the playoffs playing the NFC South, not for a while at least, and though the Bucs had a tremendous 2010, I see a step back year. I also expect Freeman to cool off a little bit as the rest of the NFL really begins to prepare for Josh Freeman and his excellent skill set. Nevertheless, Freeman is the real deal, and I project that at some point he’ll take the Bucs deep into the NFC playoffs, and he’s the sort of player who will make the players around him better for a long time.

Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars (Age 21) – Blaine Gabbert was the most pro ready quarterback in the NFL draft this past season, and despite his young age, he’ll likely start for the Jaguars this season at some point because it seems as though David Garrard simply cannot stay healthy. Gabbert plays in a division where offense rules, so it goes without shock that I believe Gabbert won’t be able to succeed until Jack Del Rio ends up the head coach of some college program. That being said, I project that Gabbert will be the best Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback since Mark Brunell, and that he’ll get the Jaguars back to the playoffs.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (Age 23) – Colin Kaepernick came on strong at the end of last year’s NCAA season and competed his way into the 2^nd round of this year’s NFL draft. That will be a great motivational speech that Kaepernick can one day give to family, friends, and high school players, because Kaepernick’s NFL career won’t really be worth talking about. What Kaepernick has to succeed at the pro level is size and speed. What will prevent him from succeeding is the fact that he’s just about as average as you can get at everything that goes into making a quarterback good at the pro level. I project that Colin Kaepernick will be a solid change of pace quarterback for teams looking to add a multi tool players, much like what Vince Young or Tim Tebow are. Kaepernick won’t start long term because at some point coach Jim Harbaugh will want a real quarterback.

Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans (Age 23) – The Titans invested their future in the likable Jake Locker, an athletic QB who has a lot of heart. He’s often been called a mini-Tim Tebow, but a lot of scouts think he has better fundamentals than Tebow and I’d have to agree. Locker can do well at the pro level, but like Tebow he’s going to need some time to marinate. I project that Jake Locker will be an adequate an NFL quarterback along the lines of a more athletic David Garrard.

Ryan Mallett, New England Patriots (Age 23) – Ryan Mallett went from hoping to be a first round draft pick to being drafted by the Patriots to backup Tom Brady. In all likelihood the Patriots drafted Mallett to groom, show off in ideal situations, then trade for a second or third round draft pick, or another cornerback. Mallett has a strong arm, some accuracy flaws, and a lot of mental issues. Still, he has the raw talent to become an NFL starter eventually, but if he were really any good the entire league wouldn’t have passed up on such a high profile player so many times. Every scout and coach in the NFL knew who Ryan Mallett was, and every scout and coach decided to pass on him multiple times. My projection is that unless Ryan Mallett goes to the UFL to get attention, he will never be taken seriously as a potential NFL starter. If by injury or benching Mallett gets a shot to start, he has the skill set to succeed. Chances are he will never get the chance to do so in New England.

Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns (Age 24) – Colt McCoy severely lacks arm strength. Colt McCoy is undersized. Colt McCoy’s college record means nothing because A. it’s college, and B. he inherited a national championship team. That being said, I really think Colt McCoy will be a solid NFL QB. Mike Holmgren believes in McCoy, and when Holmgren believes in QB they turn into names like Montana, Young, Favre, and Hasselbeck. McCoy should flourish in Cleveland’s west coast offense, and the defensive mindset that Cleveland is beginning to take on should alleviate a lot of the pressure off of McCoy. McCoy has shown that he is a leader, and wants to lead the Browns back to respectability. I believe that is exactly what Colt McCoy will do: make the Browns respectable.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (Age 22) – Cam Newton burst onto the national sports scene last year with the NCAA equivalent of Kurt Warner’s 1999 NFL season. Exiled from Florida, the king of JuCo, becomes Auburn’s starting QB, goes undefeated, wins national championship and Heisman Trophy. Newton takes that resume to the NFL where he’ll likely takeover the Panthers starting QB job in week one. Though a lot of people want to compare Newton to busts like JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young, or projected busts like Tim Tebow, in reality Cam Newton is a very unique player, much closer to a more athletic young Donovan McNabb than he is to either other those other players. Newton has a tremendous arm, a ton of athleticism, and isn’t as dumb as people make him out to be, or want him to be. I project that Cam Newton will have a solid NFL career, win a lot of games, make a lot of incredible plays, and become one of the most exciting players in the game.

Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings (Age 23) – Christian Ponder better hope that Donovan McNabb looks more like 2010 Donovan McNabb than the 2009 counterpart, unless a Ponder may become the new Matt Leinart. The Minnesota Vikings were never meant to be a team that brings in a young QB to be groomed so it’s fitting that Ponder sits a while. Ponder needs to sit anyway. At Florida State, Christian Ponder was a good quarterback but he never looked like a first round pick. He has a strong arm and he practices hard. I project that Christian Ponder will underachieve. He’ll make a fine backup in the NFL, but I see more Kyle Boeller than Carson Palmer in Ponder.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (Age 24) – At this point in time any flaws that I could point out in Mark Sanchez could immediately be countered by Sanchez’s two playoff berths, and 4-2 playoff record. At this point in time Sanchez is by far the most successful quarterback on this list, being the only one to start one playoff game, and is also on what looks to be the best team of the bunch. Nevertheless there are flaws in the Mark Sanchez machine. Sanchez is 6’2 225 lbs: not exactly your prototypical quarterback build. Sanchez’s arm strength is inferior to that of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and his accuracy is on par with those QB’s in the lower part of the middle tier. Still, Sanchez continues to win despite his flaws like a quarterback is asked to do. I project that Mark Sanchez will continue to develop as an NFL quarterback. He may never become a pro bowler, but I definitely believe that he will end his career with a winning record as a quarterback. He’s proven that he can win at this level.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (Age 23) – Matthew Stafford is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in NFL. How far Stafford goes as an NFL QB will be based solely around how long he can stay on the field. The Detroit Lions have a lot of good pieces in place right now, and Stafford’s offense looks like a force that will give defensive coordinators nightmares for the next decade. I project that Stafford will eventually get healthy and lead the Lions back to the playoffs within the next two seasons. Stafford will become a pro bowl caliber quarterback, and his legacy in NFL history will be cemented simply by making the Lions relevant.

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos, (Age 23) – Thanks to alphabetical order the most controversial QB on this list goes last. First the flaws: he’s a left, his accuracy is average, his release is below average, his decision making is slow, and in two training camps he couldn’t compete for the starting job. The positives: he looked every bit as good last year as Kyle Orton did, he’s a dominant athlete, a leader on the field, brings other intangibles to the Broncos offense, and in three starts last year performed as well as any other rookie that season. I project that Tim Tebow will start in the NFL, become a playoff quarterback, and continue to prove the naysayers wrong. Tebow has done nothing at either level to make me believe otherwise. If his name was Mike Jones and he performed the way he performed at Florida and on the Broncos, he’d be getting more playing respect, but selling a lot less jerseys.

The Panthers Should Start Cam Newton Week 1 No Matter What

2011-08-10T13:06:00.001-07:00

2004. With the first overall pick the San Diego Chargers select, Eli Manning. Quarterback. University of Mississippi.

As we know the Chargers later traded that pick for Philip Rivers and lived happily ever after, right?

Not quite.

Though Rivers has been astounding, the real blunder the Chargers made that year was giving up on Drew Brees, who in 2004 developed into an all star quarterback, and by 2006 was an all-pro. The Chargers ended up getting two productive years out of Brees before letting him set sail to New Orleans. Brees has since won an offensive player of the year award, has been a perennial pro bowler, and of course a Super Bowl MVP.

Last year the Panthers drafted Jimmy Clausen, a quarterback out of Notre Dame in the second round of the draft. Clausen showed some signs of being pro ready, but in reality would have benefited from staying one more year at the college level, at least from a developmental standpoint. Despite a below average rookie season by post 1998 standards, Clausen does have many of the tools necessary to succeed in the NFL.

Unfortunately for Clausen, the Panthers have decided to put their future in the hands of this years #1 overall selection Cam Newton out of Auburn. Newton possesses tremendous physical talent, but his game could use a little seasoning before he steps into the pros. The issue for Newton becomes, what if Clausen becomes Brees?

And if you think Brees is a rarity, I'd beg to differ. Kurt Warner in 2007 over Matt Leinart. Derek Anderson in 2007 over Brady Quinn. Kyle Orton this offseason over Tim Tebow. These are all in the past few years. The idea of Jimmy Clausen stepping in and succeeding on a Panthers offense that really isn't that bad isn't too far fetched. It could happen, and it would be a mess for Carolina.

Tebow and Quinn were low-risk late first round draft picks. Tebow and Quinn were both teams second first round draft picks that year. Cam Newton was the Panthers #1 overall pick, he's what the franchise plans to build it's future around. Carolina has never had a player as marketable as Newton who with a few good seasons could become the face of the league. If by some chance Jimmy Clausen comes in and does well the last thing Newton and the Panthers need is a controversy.

But the object is to win, right? Yes. And if Clausen looks like Brees circa 2004, then maybe you trade Cam Newton for a first overall pick, I'm sure you could get it. Odds are he won't and he'll look more like a 2007 Derek Anderson. Neither Quinn nor Anderson panned out for the Browns and today some scouts believe it was because of the mismanaging of the QB depth chart.

Put the ball in Newton's hands and see what he has for the next three years. Perhaps my philosophy is flawed, but in this era of free agency where a QB only has a 4 year contract to develop, you need to know if he's your guy or not almost right away.

Pre-Pre-Seaon NFL Power Rankings

2011-08-09T13:21:00.000-07:00

We’re really close to the start of the NFL preseason, so now is the right time to make the first power rankings of the year. We’ll call these the pre-preseason power rankings. Before you get upset at where your team ranks remember what power rankings really are: a ranking 1-32 of the teams with the best chances of winning the Super Bowl. That’s the goal. A team like the 2008 Chargers at 8-8 had a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the 11-5 Patriots who were absent from that year’s tournament, thus San Diego would have finished the season ranked ahead of New England.

My format for power rankings has the 32 teams broken up into four categories: the elite; or the teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl, the very good; otherwise known as the teams with an average chance to win the Super Bowl, hanging in there; or the teams who are alive but barely, and the dead; or the teams with no chance of winning the Super Bowl.

For the sake of a fresh start to a new season no team is currently classified as “dead.”

So here they are, Funk Football’s first power rankings of the new NFL season. What lockout?

The Elite

01. Green Bay Packers – The defending Super Bowl champions only got healthier, which makes them better and more dangerous. Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s top difference makers, and their schedule is easy enough where even if they don’t win the division they should be in the playoffs. This team is built well and built to win anywhere, and if Rodgers is healthy enough they can beat any team.

02. New Orleans Saints – Several of you out there may be calling me crazy for putting the Saints at number two, but this is a team one year removed from one of the most dominant seasons in NFL history, and this year’s version of the team includes an upgraded running game with the addition of Heisman trophy winning running back Mark Ingram and former San Diego Charger standout Darren Sproles. Last year in a “down year” the Saints went 11-5 before an embarrassing loss on the road to the Seahawks. The 2011 Saints should be healthier, stronger on defense, better on offense, and believe it or not under the radar. They should run away with the division.

03. San Diego Chargers – A lot of people seem to think the Chargers were a losing team last year, but they were a 9-7 team, and probably the best team that didn’t make the playoffs. By the end of the season there was little doubt that they were better than the Chiefs, and New England, Indianapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore were shaking in their cleats over the prospect of facing Philip Rivers and company in the playoffs. The Chargers seem to have fixed their major weakness: special teams, which was really the teams only weakness. The running game is underrated, the defense is great, and if Bob Sanders is healthy, the Chargers will have gotten the most game changing free agent of the off season, because after all, how many Super Bowls have Asomugha and Haynesworth carried their teams to? Sanders is the 2007 defensive player of the year and he’s joining a defense where he won’t be asked to be the only guy who can make a tackle. Watch out.

04. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles made 90% of the headlines in free agency and they certainly got deeper at a ton of positions. The only thing that can stop this team is health, and running into teams like the Packers and Saints who can score on anybody. Michael Vick was a great story in 2010, but it’s important to note that in Vick’s entire career he’s never had solid back to back seasons. In order for the 2011 Eagles to obtain immortality as Super Bowl champions, Vick is not only going to have to have a solid season, he’ll probably have to have the best season of his life considering at some point he’ll like have to face opposing offenses lead by Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, Peyton, Rivers, and Brady, any of which can score efficiently and mistake free.

05. New England Patriots – If the Patriots created 90% of the free agency headlines, the Patriots scooped up 9%, but their moves were far riskier. The acquisitions of Chad Ochocinco, Albert Haynesworth, and Shaun Ellis would all fall under the category of low risk, high reward. The problem is, the Pats aren’t handling it as low risk, instead moving their defense to a 4-3 to better accommodate for Haynesworth, while slotting Ochocinco as their #1 receiver in Brady’s offense. If you look at these power rankings, no other team in the top six would slot Ochocinco as the number one receiver. The move to 4-3 is far riskier than the Ochocinco move, not just because all five of Belichick’s Super Bowl victories have been with a 3-4, but because Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees have obscene career numbers against the 4-3, and relatively poor numbers against the 3-4. Still, I have to give Bill Belichick the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise. A tough division and a tough inter-conference schedule is this team’s biggest concern. A first round bye is paramount to a Super Bowl run for this team.

06. Indianapolis Colts – If the Colts plan to go back to the Super Bowl, this might be their last best chance, at least with this system. I’m not worried about Peyton’s neck, the Colts offense will be better than they were last year with an upgraded offensive line, and a healthy Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. What makes the Colts more dangerous than before are the defensive acquisitions they’ve made: the addition of injury plagued Tommie Harris, who by all accounts is now healthy, rivals that of the Bob Sanders acquisition as the best unsung signing of the offseason. You have to believe that if the Jets, Patriots, or Eagles made those signings it would be the second coming of Warren Sapp for all of those franchises. That’s east coast media bias, which has never stopped the Colts from having a great shot at a ring come January. This year should be no different. Like the Chargers and the Saints they’re flying under the radar right now, and that’s dangerous.

07. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have followed their other two Super Bowl berths in the Roethlisberger era with seasons in which they don’t make the playoffs. A part of me believes that will be the case again for the Steelers, but I don’t believe enough in the Ravens or Browns to see that as plausible just yet. I think a Super Bowl loss will motivate this team, and a healthy Troy Polamalu is as valuable as any other team’s best player. The rings speak for themselves in Pittsburgh, and as long as Roethlisberger and Polamalu are there (and healthy), this is the team to beat in the AFC North.

08. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens have been good enough to get out of the first round the past three years, but not good enough to get to a Super Bowl. The Ravens best shot at getting to one is going to be by getting a first round bye, and if ever that was possible this is the year. The Ravens need to stay healthy on defense, but if Joe Flacco can take that next step to borderline Pro Bowl quarterback, this Ravens team can win the division, and potentially get that first round bye. If they do, then watch out.

09. New York Jets – The New York Jets Super Bowl hopes begin and end with Mark Sanchez. In order for the Jets to get to that next level, Sanchez needs to get to that next level. The Jets have gotten to the conference title game two years in a row the hard way; on the road as a wild card team with a below average playoff quarterback. If they had an average to above average playoff quarterback the Jets would have likely gone to the Super Bowl one of those years. The Jets roster is strong enough where Sanchez isn’t going to be asked to be Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, instead he’s going to be asked to be Brad Johnson circa 2002. Before you laugh at that here are Brad Johnson’s 2002 numbers: 62.3 completion percentage, 234.5 passing yards/game, 11:3 TD:INT ratio, 92.9 QBR. The only thing to laugh at may be expecting Sanchez to obtain those sort of numbers, nevertheless it’s what he’s going to need to do if the Jets want to get past Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, and Roethlisberger, most importantly in the regular season where the Jets have struggled the past two seasons.

10. Atlanta Falcons – Call me crazy for putting them down at number ten, but I just see this as a step back year for Atlanta. A lot went right for the Falcons in 2010, including being in the same division as a hung-over Saints, but in the playoffs the Falcons proved they didn’t belong on the field with the eventual Super Bowl champions. This year it may be the Falcons who have the hangover. I think this team is good enough to get to the playoffs, but their schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk, either. Julio Jones is a great add, but rarely do rookie wide receivers make the impact that puts a team over the top.

11. Dallas Cowboys – If the Saints, Chargers, and Colts are under the radar, then the Cowboys are beneath under the radar. This is a team that has flirted with an NFC title for awhile now, but fell short due to a poor coaching staff and a mismanaged roster. A healthy Tony Romo, a new regime, and low expectations may be the gift that the Cowboys needed this whole team, at least for the first few weeks of the season and training camp. Expect Dallas to be back in the playoffs, and if the roster lives up to its potential, there’s a great chance they could be representing the NFC in Indianapolis.

The Very Good

12. Minnesota Vikings – Brett Favre’s miserable play and a bad offensive line in 2010 made us forget how good the 2009 Vikings really were. The roster isn’t that far gone and 2011 Donovan McNabb should be an upgrade over 2010 Brett Favre. This is a team that can compete for a playoff spot, and if things unfold the right way compete for a division title. Adrian Peterson should have a good year behind a revamped offensive line, and playing in a dome (ten times) should help revitalize Donovan McNabb’s career the way it helped Favre once upon a time. They may not win the Super Bowl, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re better than the Eagles.

13. New York Giants – In 2007 Michael Strahan held out, Tiki Barber said sayonara, Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin were severely questioned, and the Giants did nothing but go on to win the Super Bowl. This year, Eli and Coughlin are again on the hot seat, Osi Umenyiora is holding out, and Tiki Barber is trying to find a team to attempt a comeback with. With all of the NFC talk focused outside of the Meadowlands, don’t be surprised if this is the year the Giants make another great run. Eli Manning is, believe it or not an underrated quarterback, and Coughlin coached teams are often winners. If they can sneak into the playoffs they’ll be dangerous, I’m not sure if they can win a division title, though. Injuries to start the season will hurt them.

14. Houston Texans – The Texans have felt like an on-the-verge team since 2004, but they have made some above average moves this offseason, and the Colts aren’t as dominant in that division as they once were. The key to the Texans season will be winning week one versus Indianapolis and using that momentum to help win a division title, the way the Titans did in 2008. If the Texans can get to the playoffs, then they’ll have that 2008 Cardinals danger to them that could help them defeat the Chargers, Patriots, Ravens, or Jets.

15. Chicago Bears – I’m going to go out and say it; I think this will be a down year for Chicago. The defense will be solid if healthy, Roy Williams could be a good addition at WR, and Jay Cutler may finally take that next step, but in reality they’re going to need all of those things to occur in order to get back to where they were. The window is closing in Chicago though, they have a veteran defense, so if they don’t get back to the playoffs this year, that may be it for this incarnation of the Bears.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars made a lot of moves this offseason, most of which I thought were bad. If David Garrard is injured to start the season then this team is dead on arrival, but if not they have a shot to win the AFC South, which is perhaps the most wide open division in the AFC. But in reality, number sixteen of thirty two is about where Jaguars are, and always seem to be. Until Jack Del Rio moves on I can’t see this team being consistent enough to get through Peyton or the Texans.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I have the Bucs at seventeen not because I think they’re untalented, but because I hate the division that they’re stuck in. The Bucs are a good young team with a lot of talent, but when they play four of their games against the Falcons and Saints it will always be hard to win their division. On top of that games vs Indianapolis, Dallas, and Houston, and at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville could make this a long year for the Bucs.

18. St. Louis Rams – The Rams should win their division. The defense is strong and will likely improve a good amount this year. This teams entire Super Bowl hopes hinge on the arm of Sam Bradford, who will be asked to make progress like fellow former number one overall pick Peyton Manning made in 1999, his second pro season. The problem is, since Peyton Manning no second year quarterback who started their first year has made that sort of progress so it’s unrealistic, on top of that, 1999 Peyton Manning didn’t get to the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, a division title in 2011 will go a long way towards eventually helping Bradford get what Manning eventually got as well, a Super Bowl ring. I like Bradford, I could see him being a Pro Bowler this year, and I can see the Rams having a strong season, I just don’t think I can see them having a Super season.

19. Detroit Lions – I’m going to say it: the Lions can win the Super Bowl. What’s the catch? They play in the NFC North. I think the Lions will be improved this year, and if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, this could be a winning team and even a playoff team. I just don’t know if they can go deep into the playoffs just yet. The defense is going to be great one day, and the offense has potential to be even better. 2011 should be the year where the Lions finally re-enter the NFL as a legitimate team. If they’re healthy, that will definitely happen.

Hanging In There

20. San Francisco 49ers – In a way it’s a good thing that the 49ers plan to find out what they have in Alex Smith once and for all. Unfortunately for the 49ers I think that they’re going to find out Alex Smith isn’t a winning quarterback at this level. If the Rams don’t move forward, the 49ers could pass them and potentially win this division on the strength of the players around Smith. I could see the 49ers getting back to the playoffs this year, but I can’t see them going any further than a first round beat down by Philadelphia, New York, or Dallas.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – They were a playoff team last year and the most embarrassed playoff team at that. The best thing that could happen for this relatively young team would be to have a down year and find a real future quarterback. Cassell is good to start another year after this season, but I can’t see the Chiefs ever competing for a ring with Cassell. With Denver and Oakland ready to go on the rise, now would be the right time for the Chiefs to fail, before mediocrity turns them into this decades Buffalo Bills.

22. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals cashed in their future for Kevin Kolb, a quarterback who has shown some signs of excellence these past few years, as well as some signs of futility. We’ll see what they have in Kolb, but the bigger problems in Arizona lie elsewhere. The offensive line has gotten worse, the defense has gotten worse, and I’m not sure if Kevin Kolb can do what Kurt Warner was able to do. I don’t see Arizona getting back to the playoffs this year, I honestly thing St. Louis are better overall, but if the Kolb move was a good one, then the Cardinals can become a force in the NFC again very soon.

23. Cleveland Browns – I’ll come out and say it: I like Colt McCoy as a pro quarterback. I think he has the intangibles, and enough of the skill set to succeed along the lines of a Flacco or Roethliberger, in that the numbers won’t be gaudy but the wins will be in abundance. The problem is, it will be hard for McCoy to pan out on an offense with so few weapons. The Jets got Sanchez every weapon he could ever ask for. The Broncos and Rams surrounded Tebow and Bradford with solid offensive weapons as yet. The Browns continue to rebuild, and McCoy may become the victim of this rebuilding process. Nevertheless, this is a team with a shot at the wild card in a slim AFC wild card picture. In order for that to happen, McCoy may need to play out of his mind, something I don’t think he’s ready to do.

24. Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll is becoming a mad scientist as a head coach. I can’t see this year going as well as last year. Their quarterback situation should be renamed “backup city” and their defense is average at best. I can see them battling around .500, but I honestly believe 6-10 is their peak.

25. Washington Redskins – Tough division for a team to try to rebuild in, especially with a coach like Mike Shanahan. If this season goes well for Shanahan then we’ll have to concede to his genius. If this season goes poorly for Shanahan then we’ll have to say that Al Davis was actually right and the only reason Shanahan has two Super Bowl rings is because of Terrell Davis and John Elway. The somewhere in between would be that Shanahan got too far inside his own head to the point where he started to believe in his ego, which told him that he could win a tough division with Rex Grossman or John Beck at quarterback, with no offensive game-breaker, and an improving but not great defense.

26. Miami Dolphins – They have the roster to become the most exciting team in the AFC East, the issue is they don’t have the quarterback. Instead of going after Orton they should go after Tebow. They won’t win much in the AFC East this year, but it’ll be fun to watch. Tebow in Florida would turn the NFL on its head, and with Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall, he could actually meet his potential as a major offensive weapon. It won’t happen because of the fan backlash that will occur in Denver, who are absolutely smitten with Tebow, but this what-if get’s the point across. The Dolphins biggest issue is quarterback, and they have done very little to address this issue. If Chad Henne develops this year, then I can see them making a push for the playoffs and hurting the Patriots and Jets first round bye hopes.

27. Oakland Raiders – It was going so well! Last year the Raiders had a shot at the playoffs. The Chargers were bewildered and the Broncos were in flux. This year the Chargers will be back and the Raiders will go back to third in the division. They had the right idea going for a veteran quarterback with Jason Campbell, but I think it’s time they find that franchise quarterback. If you’re going to beat Rivers consistently, you’ll need that heavyweight to throw up against him. It’ll be a step back year in Oakland.

28. Tennessee Titans – The Titans know that they’re rebuilding. Matt Hasselbeck is the right type of guy to tutor Jake Locker, and he’s openly willing to do it. This team’s best chance at the playoffs is Peyton Manning injury. This team’s best chance at a Super Bowl is a Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers collective injury. In all seriousness, I’d rest Locker all year and let him watch.

29. Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton will start week one, but we know that right now this franchise is relevant for one reason only, they currently own the rights to the NFL’s greatest enigma: Timothy Tebow. The Broncos have little to no hope this year, and all you Tebow-maniacs can circle Sunday, October 23 on your calendars as the day the Tebow era truly begins, in Florida when the 1-4 Broncos take on the 1-4 Dolphins. If the Broncos win that one expect to hear about whether or not Tebow is the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Expect them to maybe win four to five games after that.

30. Carolina Panthers – I could see this defense being really good. I hope they give Jimmy Clausen a chance to sort of impress the league so that the Panthers can trade him for a mid to late round pick, probably to Washington or Seattle where they collect those sort of players. Cam Newton will probably do alright as a rookie, I can’t see him doing great like Roethlisberger or Young, and the Panthers won’t be as patient with him as the Broncos were with Tebow, in part because the Panthers don’t need a QB controversy between Clausen and Newton, two young guys. A brutal division will force this team to pick in the top five again next year, and I expect them to use it to find Cam some protection.

31. Buffalo Bills – This is the team that Andrew Luck should go to. It would be great, and he could singlehandedly help keep the Bills in Buffalo long term. C’mon Bills, do us a favor, don’t go on another stupid November-December run that moves you from number one pick to number eight pick. Not this year. In Andrew Luck you would have the best quarterback in the AFC East by 2013, and if you prefer Fitzpatrick and his Harvard degree please note one thing: Andrew Luck will have a Stanford degree. Me personally, I trust a Stanford man more than a Harvard man at anything.

32. Cincinnati Bengals – This team will probably end up at 32 at the end of the year. The problem is this is the one franchise at the bottom that doesn’t want to be in that position because they just wasted an early second round pick on an average quarterback named Andy Dalton. If Dalton shows hope this year, they’ll probably try to trade that number one pick to someone who needs it. If not, then Andrew Luck, like Carson Palmer, will be a Pac 10 quarterback headed to Cincinnati where he’ll likely never meet his potential.

A Well Thought Out Reply to My Tebow Article

2011-08-04T15:01:00.000-07:00

My friend Sebastian who has always been the most consistent Funk reader and responder wrote this reply to my earlier article on Tim Tebow. For some reason Blogger.com wouldn't let him post it, perhaps because of length, but either way it's more well written than my article and makes some accurate observations about anti-Tebow-ism.

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For me so much of Tebow falls along political lines, once you remove Bronco fans, or Gator fans... and look at the people who love him vs. the people who hate him. You'll find the people who can't stand what he stands for, most likely find the concept of believing in god laughable, and all their anger and resentment that they have towards the church, or the unfairness of life, become focused through a magnifying glass towards Tebow. Add that to any pre-existing hatred and sports frustrations that might already exist by having a rivalry with the Broncos or Gators, and you've got someone more hated than the Pope. The Pope is just the head of a religion, he isn't a head of a religion, and playing for the Yankees. Now this is mostly true of the Tebow haters, and exists in milder forms through the anti-tebow spectrum.

For me, I don't go to church, I'm not dogmatic, or really religiously observant, but I really respect anyone who is. So when I look at Tebow, just as a man, religion aside, how can I hate someone who in the face of all he has accomplished on the field has done even more off of it. This is a man who has been more than generous with his time, and fame and serving something he truly believes in, in order to help other people improve their lives. To the cynical, it's for publicity, or because he thinks he better than others, but I can't. Here's a guy who took years out his life to go to other countries, before he was ever famous to help others. Not only that, this guy is a true natural leader, a guy who everyone of his fellow gators could look to, not only in the locker room, but in the huddle with seconds left, and the game on the line. He's one of these people who doesn't know how to loose. His mind is too strong, and he has it focused towards two things, winning football games, and helping people.

As a former athlete I respect it even more. I had tons of natural physical talent, but what I didn't have was that steel hard brain that could lie to me, and tell me we could win, and I can make us. As team captain my senior year, in the semi's, the furthest our team had gone in its history, I was in the huddle thinking.. "Yeah this is nice, we'll probably loose today." After a tight game we lost, I played tight, I shrank from the big moments, I was almost invisible on the field. I played ok when I had the chance but I didn't take over the game.

I respect the hell out of people like Tom Brady, or Michael Jordan, Federer, (I guess Tiger Woods?) Montana, all the greats, who can raise their game when it's needed most... So maybe Tebow isn't as naturally talented as those guys, but he's got the spirit, and we are giving him a harder time because of it? He should be commended. Not getting points off, saying... oh this is unfair! he only got drafted in the first round, BECAUSE HE'S AN AWESOME PERSON. Yes, and we should hope, not even NFL players, but just everyday people, were like him. And good things should happen to those people.

Meanwhile, Vick is untouchable. What really made over his image? Doing some obligitorty-guilt-ridden-post-

jail charity time, giving the required lip-service to saying all the right things. No, he just started playing really, really well. He's a changed man! Vick has to act good to inorder to have a career, Tebow is good almost seemingly inspite of his career. Tebow was doing all those things before he was expected to. Vick has to do them, or else he doesn't seemed rehabilitated, and would then having nothing. I don't think I've read any articles doubting that Vick has really changed. I'd love to read/write one. I mean, we were really easy to forgive him, but we can't forgive that Tebow got drafted in first round, because he's a good dude?

Ask ourselves a question: do we want a world with 1000 more people like Vick, or 1000 more people like Tim Tebow? (I'm not saying Vick is the nadir of humanity in the NFL, for the sake of the question you can replace Vick with Matt Cassel. Cassel's probably a nice good guy, but Tebow is just that much more of a special person.)

The point is, we should care more that Vick is potentially a bad dude, no one bemoans what he gets*, because he is a good player on the field. So right now, until Tebow can show he's a good player, people don't really care that he's a good person. But I think more people should be rooting for the good person, to also be a good player. Not Hating him for it.

Weighing In On the Tim Tebow Media Storm

2011-08-03T09:38:00.000-07:00

Tim Tebow is an "A-List" national sports star. You may not like to hear that, but he is. Tebow's celebrity is on par with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning, and surpasses that of virtually every other active NFL player. East Coast sports fans (I'm looking mostly at New England and New York) will respond to that statement with something along the lines of, "you gotta be kiddin' me!? Tebow is a bum. What has he eva dun?"

What has Tim Tebow ever done? At the University of Florida he won two national championships, was the first Sophomore to ever win the Heisman trophy, was a finalist for another two Heisman trophy's, had an 88 to 16 career TD to INT ratio, ran for 2,947 career yards and another 57 touchdowns, and was the first player since the 1950's to win the prestigious Maxwell Award twice; an award given out to the best overall player in college football. If you don't watch college football then you don't appreciate Tim Tebow's greatness, the same way where if you don't watch the NBA you don't appreciate Dwight Howard's greatness. Bottom line is that the greatness is there, and Tim Tebow did more for the popularity of college football on the national stage than any player in the history of the sport. College success does not mean Tebow will have NFL success, but it explains his vast popularity without going to East Coast media route and attributing it entirely to southern Christians.

And now there's a media fire surrounding reports in Denver that Tim Tebow is going to again enter the regular season as the backup quarterback for the Broncos, but the truth is that this really isn't that big of a deal. This doesn't mean that Tim Tebow is a bust at the pro level, it doesn't mean that Tebow will never start a game as pro. The only thing that this means is that in week one, Denver will be starting Kyle Orton at quarterback because they believe he gives them the best chance to win.

Last year Tim Tebow started three games for the Broncos, throwing for 650 yards, rushing for 200, with five passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Broncos went 1-2 in those three games which took place in a season where they went 4-12. For a rookie quarterback, those are above average numbers (if you want to use fantasy sports as a means to understand those numbers, Tebow was the leading fantasy QB for the combined weeks of 15-17 last year), and if you've had an opportunity to watch the games in which Tebow played in, there was a certain energy surrounding a lifeless team that didn't exist before.

I understand where Brandon Lloyd is coming from with his frustration surrounding Tebow vs Orton. The fans, the media, and even some players and coaches want to see what Tim Tebow can do in large part because he is already an "A-List" sports celebrity. Some people may read into Lloyd's frustration as a sign that Tebow is an inferior player to Kyle Orton. That may be the case, but what I take from it is that Lloyd wants to know who the QB is going to be because he needs to prepare. One thing that no one is really talking about in this is the fact that Tim Tebow is a left quarterback, and when you have a lefty quarterback, especially a young one, players need time to adjust because the ball is going to be coming at them from a different angle. Not to mention that Tebow's style is drastically different than Kyle Orton's.

When Steve Young, a lefty QB with mobility, took over for Joe Montana, a righty QB with little mobility, there was a learning curve early on, and at times the 49ers players were completely out of sync on offense. Last year, Michael Vick was successfully able to acclimate to the Eagles offense, but he had already been on the team for two seasons, including one full offseason, not to mention the players were used to Donovan McNabb's big arm and ability to throw outside the pocket.

Tim Tebow is probably not ready to be an NFL starting QB, but it doesn't mean that he will never be. I'll also go on the record and say that I believe Tebow will start more than three games for the Broncos this year, because once the Broncos end up 2-5 or 3-6, there will be no reason to stick with Orton. Kyle Orton is a nice quarterback with a career 11-17 record in Denver. He has put up some gaudy numbers the past two seasons in Denver, numbers that Tebow will likely never be able to put up, but I firmly believe that Tebow could put up better numbers than 11-17, and he has done nothing to prove otherwise. Not in college, not in the pros, not in practice, not in the locker room.

Whatever Tim Tebow does is news, and it will continue to be news because it gets ESPN, NFLN, and all the sports blogs, radio shows, and websites great ratings. He will never be Drew Brees, but a franchise would dumb to ask him to be. What Tim Tebow has the potential to be is Vince Young with a good head on his shoulders, and for all the headaches that Vince Young created, he has a much better career winning percentage than Kyle Orton.

LaDainian Tomlinson is No Longer a San Diego Charger

2010-02-22T20:27:00.001-08:00

So the moment has finally come. It shouldn't be a surprise because the clock had been ticking since 2007, but now that the moment is here it's sort of weird.

If LaDainian Tomlinson getting cut by the San Diego Chargers doesn't signify that the decade of the 00's is over I don't know what will.

For the past nine years Tomlinson has been the face of the Chargers franchise. He won the MVP for the 2006 regular season, and helped launch the careers of both Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. It's hard to argue that LaDainian Tomlinson wasn't the best halfback of the past decade.

Though it means that time has elapsed, and we're all getting older, Tomlinson's move was probably the right one for both parties. At this point in time the Chargers offensive line simply isn't good enough to support a back like Tomlinson. When the Chargers decided to go with Norv Turner in 2007 it pretty much launched an era of pass first football in San Diego, essentially kicking the player who rebuilt franchise to the curb.

But it's what the Chargers have to do. The Chargers invested so much in passing offense that the running game is there as a mere decoy for the passing attack; much like the Chargers rival Patriots and Colts offenses. Essentially the Chargers just need to add any back who can carry the ball inside the 20 and they'll be fine. In today's NFL situational backs are a dime-a-dozen and that'll be enough to suffice in San Diego.

The move is going to be tough for Tomlinson. The league has passed him by and there are probably few situations where he'd be the right fit next year. There's a chance that Tomlinson could end up back in Texas with either the Cowboys or Texans but I couldn't see him being much better there than in San Diego. Essentially, for Tomlinson to succeed he's going to have to accept being a situational back, and there is some question as to whether or not he can do that.

There is a reason that since 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson has picked up the moniker "Complainian Tomlinson." The guy is a baby. He evaporates in the big game, and is the first to open his mouth after it. Never once in his career did Tomlinson show up in the big spot, and that's what separates him from the backs like Smith, Payton, and Brown; the backs that Tomlinson will have similar stats to but never be compared to.

So as Tomlinson and the Chargers prepare to move on, this seems like it's going to be the better move for San Diego, which is a good thing for that franchise. After all, the last high profile player they let walk out the door just picked up a ring in the season that the Chargers were supposed to win one.

Super Bowl XLIV: The Final Word

2010-02-07T10:33:00.000-08:00

The long season, all the stories, the countless debates, it all comes down to today. The top two teams for most of the 2009 season will be on the field when the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints kickoff from Miami. As far as the NFL goes, this is the way it should be.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have played each other three times in their careers. The first meeting was in 2004 when Peyton lead his team on a fourth quarter comeback, a game which he threw his record breaking 49th touchdown pass. The following year, Brees got the final word when he lead the Chargers to victory in a game that saw the Colts dreams of an undefeated season go down the toilet. The final meeting was the first game of the 2007 season where Manning and the Colts ripped apart a weak Saints defense 41-10, making the series Manning 2, Brees 1.

Today's game in entirely different. First of all, two of the games were Colts vs Chargers games. Second of all, the 2007 teams, though still very similar, are also pretty different. In a lot of ways that is what makes today's game so special; We're getting a match up we have never really seen before.

So today when you watch the Super Bowl, just enjoy the game. Whether it's a blowout or an all time classic, just stay in front of your television. Because either way, this is going to be a game that will be talked about for a long, long time. And even if it's not, it's been a great season.

Peyton vs the 4-3 Defense

2010-02-06T10:30:00.000-08:00

More than any player of the past decade, Peyton Manning's strengths and weaknesses have been heavily documented. Though his struggles with the 3-4 defense early in his career have been well documented, Manning mastered the 4-3 defense very early in his career.

This Sunday, Manning well get to square off against the New Orleans Saints and their 4-3 defense. The 4-3 is build around a blitzing front line and a strong secondary that induces turnovers. Part of the reason Manning has been so successful against the 4-3 in the past five seasons is because Manning responds well to the blitz, and doesn't really cause too many turnovers.

In the past five seasons (since 2005), the Colts have only lost to a 4-3 defense only 6 times when playing all of their starters. Of those six losses only one was too a non-divisional opponent, the 2008 Chicago Bears on opening day. If you recall, the Colts started 2008 very slow because Peyton Manning missed all out training camp with a knee infection that he was still recovering from early in 2009.

Much of Manning's success against the 4-3 stems from the fact that the Colts have run the 4-3 for Manning's entire career, so he has seen it every day. Since 2005, the Colts have run one of the most effective 4-3's in the NFL. Even when the Colts defense was bad, Manning still had Tony Dungy as his head coach, one of the revolutionaries of the 4-3 Cover 2 defense. To put it plainly, Manning understands the 4-3 defense better than any quarterback in the NFL. Then again, Manning probably understands every defensive formation and scheme better than every other quarterback in the NFL.

So when the Colts line up on offense tomorrow, look for Manning to feel the Saints out early, before going ballistic on their 4-3 scheme tomorrow. The only difference between this Saints team and the other 4-3's that Manning has played in the past is the fact that the Saints offense is extremely potent. Much like when Manning faces the Houston Texans, he won't have much time to adjust to the Saints defense before he'll find himself in an early hole.

NFL Super Bowl Pick

2010-02-05T15:34:00.000-08:00

New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts

If you haven't already, expect to hear thousands of predictions and picks for this weekends game. Some predictions will be good, others will be awful, and some will be confusing. If you have followed this blog all season you understand that I put a lot of thought into each of my picks and I try to play it as even as I possibly can.

For that very reason I spent the bulk of the 2010 season considering the New Orleans Saints the best team in the NFL. This assessment was made absolutely clear after the post-Thanksgiving edition of Monday Night Football where the Saints ravaged a New England Patriots team that was healthy and holding on to Super Bowl aspirations. After that game the Saints began to look beatable, almost falling to the Redskins and Falcons before finally losing at home to the Cowboys and on the road to the Bucs. The Saints would also lose their final game of the regular season to the Panthers, but we can't count that game given the Saints starters were mostly on the bench. With those three loses aside, the Saints were able to dominate the NFC for most of the 2010 season, and in turn became America's darlings.

The Colts of 2009 entered the season disrespected by the media and continue to be just that. Entering the season questions surrounded the franchise and whether or not they could win without retired Head Coach Tony Dungy and wide receiver Marvin Harrison. After getting manhandled by the Dolphins on Monday Night but still coming up with the win the Colts were written off as a "second class" team in the AFC behind the Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots. When the Colts beat the Patriots on Sunday Night football excuses were made. When the Colts decided to give up on their perfect season and choose health over 16-0 they were ridiculed by their fans, and everyone else's fans alike, even after Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker got injured to the point where it cost their teams playoff longevity. Entering the divisional playoffs many suspected the Colts would again be "one and done," entering the AFC title game the media and the Jets fans alike spent an entire week bashing the Colts. But all the 2009 Colts have done is win every game that they have tried to; Which is why they're in the Super Bowl.

One group of people have backed the Colts for pretty much all of the 2009: the bookies of the United States of America. Outside of their week three showdown with the Cardinals, those who set the lines for gambling on the NFL have favored the Colts in every game they have played in this year, and there's a reason for that. Bookies aren't in the business of losing money. It sounds stupid, but these people know what they're getting into when they move a line from -3.5 to -6.

I know that pointing to the bookmakers is dumb, but a huge jump like that deserved at least a little attention.

If I really want to point out a dumb, inconsequential statistic for you, it would be the curse of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it's relevance in this game. Since 1976, their first year a franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have never beaten the eventual Super Bowl champion. As I said earlier in this post, the 2009 Buc's have defeated the 2009 New Orleans Saints. If the Saints win this game they will become the first team to ever lose to the Buccaneers and win the Super Bowl in the same season. Like the 2009 Saints, the 2001 Rams got to the Super Bowl this decade in a season where they lost to the Bucs, and we all know what happened in that game.

Okay, enough of the issues that have nothing to do with this game.

This game is going to be a real treat because it's the first time that this generation of players can claim an undisputed champion. This decade I have had little to no problem with the champion crowned every year, but there has always been the proclamation "well if this team had played such and such." You can't make that argument this year. The Colts are 16-0 in games they have tried to win, the Saints are 15-2 in games that they have tried to win. Combined these two teams started 2009 27-0. Both were one seeds in their conferences and for the first time since 1993 the two one seeds are squaring off in the Super Bowl. In other words; We're finally getting a titanic bout for the Super Bowl.

The Saints enter this game with the more "high powered" offense. Like the 2001 Rams or the Colts teams of the early part of the decade, the Saints entire game plan runs through their offense. Their defense isn't bad, but it relies on turnovers and the fact that opposing teams are often playing from behind. This strategy makes for a strong pass rush and turnover driven secondary.

The Saints biggest strength is also their biggest weakness entering this game; All Pro Quarterback Drew Brees. Brees is without a doubt one of the best QB's in the NFL, but he also hasn't exactly played his best football in big games. In the NFC Championship game, both in 2006 and 2009 Brees has looked shaky. Brees' size, though not always an issue, can hurt the quarterback going against a defense that has done well taking away the big passing play in 2009. Overall the Saints will need to rely on Brees this Sunday to bring the city of New Orleans it's first championship, and that's a lot of pressure.

The Colts are certainly a more balanced team than the Saints, though the statistics don't always prove it. Joseph Addai hasn't had a lights out season in 2009, but he has quietly been one of the most productive backs in the league, at times willing the Colts offense to success. I wholeheartedly believe that Addai will have a positive impact on this game for Indianapolis, and he will be a key to victory.

On defense the Colts just need to do what they do. The Saints can score, and they probably will score on Indianapolis, the Colts just need to make sure that they don't lose their composure. Since 2005 this Colts defense has gone into every game like a fighter ready to take punches. This team has done amazingly adjusting throughout games and forcing turnovers; like in the 2006 and 2009 AFC Championship games. It will be very important for this Colts team to keep their composure after 20 yard receptions or back to back 6 yard runs.

The final key to the Colts winning their second Super Bowl since 2006 is their four time MVP quarterback Peyton Manning. In Super Bowl XLI Manning was the games MVP, leading his team to victory over a very good Bears defense. Since then, Manning has been called one of the more undeserving Super Bowl MVP's of the decade, and you know that bothers the inner historian in Manning. Manning can't let this control him though, and I'm sure he won't. At the end of the day Manning knows the two rings is more important than great stats in the Super Bowl. In Kurt Warner's last two Super Bowl appearances he had amazing stats but no hardware. Manning would much rather be on the Ben Roethlisberger side of the fence with two average performance and two rings.

There has been a lot of talk about this game coming down to who has the ball last. Maybe it will, though I doubt it. I have a feeling that this game will be close early, but come celebration time, you'll be seeing a lot more Blue and White in Miami than you will Gold and Black.

I'm taking the Colts to win the Super Bowl

USC Commits 13 Year Old Quarterback

2010-02-05T15:09:00.000-08:00

Every once in a while you hear stories as ridiculous as this story about the 13 year old kid, David Sills of Delaware, committing to USC to play Quarterback. I can rant forever about why this is dumb, un-newsworthy, and pretty much a disgrace to recruiting rules past and present, but let's take a step back from everything and take a look at who is behind this disasterpiece.

That would be Lane Kiffin.

You know Lane, the guy who couldn't cut it in the NFL but get a top tier job at Tennessee, and could barely cut it there so he got an elite tier job at USC. Yeah, that guy. The one who has gotten three sweet gigs while accomplishing nothing in his life. Besides being the son of a Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator I suppose. And Lane was a successful assistant under Pete Carroll at USC, but c'mon folks, what assistant wasn't successful under Pete Carroll at USC.

Anyway, one of the reasons that this story is un-newsworthy is because the kid is still in 7th grade. Between now and the time he hits his senior season in High School a number of things could happen; his body may not develop the way a successful quarterbacks body is supposed to, a number of quarterbacks may pass him by, many of whom probably won't put on pads until they get to 9th grade, and finally, this 13 year old kid now has an "X" on his back in every game he plays in between now and the time he puts on the Trojans colors.

Do you really think that undersized but downright nasty defensive end that lines up against Sills is really going to take it easy on the kid? Because I don't.

Perhaps what Kiffin is doing is setting the Trojans up for success for a few years down the road. You know, when their NCAA punishment is lifted. I don't project their punishment to be "SMU death penalty" status, but I expect it to be pretty harsh. Harsh enough to give Kiffin an excuse to fail at least.

So I guess I'll make it clear before we never talk about this kid again, David Sills will never make it to USC as their quarterback, chances are he won't even make it to the FBS, and Lane Kiffin will not be USC's head coach by the time Sills is a senior in High School.

Trust me, I'm not Nostradamus, but this is common sense.

Signing Day Winners and Losers

2010-02-05T00:29:00.000-08:00

Some like to compare signing day to the NFL draft. I'm not one of those people. There are way too many intangibles when it comes to recruiting high school seniors to consider it even close to the NFL draft. For every 4 and 5 star recruit that pans out to be what he's supposed to be, there is another recruit of the same status that falls flat on their face. The same cannot be said for the NFL draft. Also, for every 4 and 5 star recruit to make it, there is a 3 or 2 star recruit that everyone passed on because they didn't go to the "right" school, or show the right flashes.

Hence it's hard to immediately judge a signing day, or even think about judging a signing day, but if you look at where certain teams finished the day, you can start to shine a light on certain programs and the direction they're moving in.

Winners

USC - Finishing #1 in the country after falling out of the top 10 at one point this season was a huge accomplishment for Lane Kiffin. I had actually foreseen Kiffin falling flat on his face; Obviously I was wrong and it looks like Kiffin will, on paper, have a team capable of winning a national championship in the next couple of years.

UCLA - For as impressed as I was with Kiffin and USC, I was probably more impressed with Rick Neuheisel who was able to get UCLA into the top 10, even after a relatively poor 2009. The fact that UCLA showed flashes of improvement in 2009 makes this 2010 recruiting class that much more dangerous for the rest of the NCAA, especially their PAC 10 rivals.

Tennessee - Losing their head coach actually may have helped this team in recruiting. With Kiffin still in town, the Vols were recruiting well, but not great. Kiffin's departure had little to no effect on the Volunteers recruiting efforts, raising the question if Kiffin ever had any swagger in the SEC to begin with?

Hawaii - Hawaii jolted to number 65 yesterday after swimming around the mid 80's most of the season. Though it sounds pretty bad, consider that Hawaii's recruiting class was the strongest of their rivals in 2010, including Boise State, Nevada, and that school in Texas coached by June Jones. This recruiting class is a great morale boost for this program.

Missouri - The team in the Big 12 no one really talks about but is actually pretty good. Mizzou picked up six four star recruits en route to catapulting the team to the #21 spot in this years recruiting class. Though Missouri have flirted around this area for the past couple of years, for Mizzou to still be doing this well after a year that saw the program come back down to earth is a sign that this program is for real.

Losers

Miami - What the heck is the U doing at #24? No five stars? Only six four stars? Ouch. Something needs to be done to revitalize this program and it starts at head coach. This is a program that should be winning championships, not struggling to outrecruit USF.

Notre Dame - A number 14 finish is great on a national scale, but for a program that notoriously finished top 10 in recruiting under Charlie Weiss, you have to wonder how good Weiss really was at that whole recruiting thing. Recruiting for Notre Dame is harder than it sounds, especially with bigger, more party friendly schools going after some of the same recruits. I've got a feeling the Irish will be back in the top 10 of recruiting next year.

Michigan - If this team wants to rebuild successfully recruiting classes finishing 20th aren't going to cut it. If this is the last year of what looks to be a faile Rodriguez expirement, whoever takes over the program will bare the burden of this mediocre class.

TCU - A BCS team in the state of Texas that finished 46th in recruiting? Ouch. I didn't expect the Horned Frogs to finish top 20, but top 40 was reasonable. Something has to be up if this team can't tap into that talent pool. There are enough quality players in Texas to get this team a top 40 recruiting class. Especially after their past two seasons. To give the program some credit, being top 50 in the country is a sign of progress for a program that at one point was considered lower tier in Texas.

Boise State - I know it's the system, not the players that wins on the Smurf Turf, but number 82? For a team that expects to be in the National Championship game next year, recruiting number 82nd doesn't exactly help the Broncos when it comes to being taken seriously by the media. Personally, I think the Broncos deserve a shot at the top, but I also think they should be recruiting better than Hawaii, Kent State, and Toledo.

Where Will History Place a Champion Saints Team?

2010-02-04T10:39:00.000-08:00

There has been a lot of talk about the place of the 2009 Colts in the history books if they win Super Bowl XLIV, but what place would a Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints team hold in the record books?

Similar to Indianapolis the Saints started off the season incredibly hot, getting off to a 13-0 start before losing back to back games to the Cowboys and Bucs (their backups lost a third straight game to the Panthers) to finish the season 13-3. Unlike Indianapolis, the Saints actually tried to win in their two losses, but like Indianapolis there is no questioning who the best team in the Saints conference was in 2009.

It's rare to have a situation where two teams in one Super Bowl are playing each other for the spot of "best single season team of the decade," but that may be exactly what is on the line in Super Bowl XLIV. A lot of attention has been drawn to the 14-0 Colts, with their four time MVP quarterback and various other Hall of Fame players, but similar stories could be written about the 13-0 New Orleans Saints. Both teams have had exceptional seasons with about a dozen trademark moments on the field.

The 2009 Saints, if they beat Indianapolis, would have beaten the AFC #1 seed, the NFC #2 seed, and the defending NFC champion to win a franchises first Vince Lombardi trophy. With that sort of resume it will be difficult to keep the 2009 New Orleans Saints out of the top two Super Bowl champions of decade, behind maybe the 2004 New England Patriots. The Saints dominant offense would give the team a trademark unit, and their defense has enough of a face in Jonathan Vilma and Darren Sharper to give the 2009 Saints plenty of recognition in the history books. Not to mention a Super Bowl victory would put Drew Brees in the same sentence as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, at least for now.

We can talk for hours about what a win would do for the legacy of this Indianapolis Colts team, but the truth of the matter is, the game means just as much to the Saints. Though I honestly feel that the Colts have a much heavier boulder on their backs, I can't neglect the fact that this game means almost as much for a team that started 13-0.

What If The Colts Lose? Pt 3: Return to Miami

2010-02-03T13:59:00.001-08:00

The 2009 Colts are one win away from going down as one of the greatest single season teams of all time. They'll join the 1972 Miami Dolphins, 1984 San Francisco 49ers, and the 1985 Chicago Bears in the discussion for what team was the single greatest team in NFL history.

What the 2009 Colts have working for them is the amount of adversity they have overcome. Whether it was replacing a Hall of Fame coach with a rookie head coach, replacing a Hall of Fame wide receiver, losing Anthony Gonzalez week one, losing Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson for the year, or facing media scrutiny for "giving up" on perfection, the Indianapolis Colts have faced adversity all season, and have overcome it each and every week.

Now, the Colts face their final test. Scrutiny for resting their players and the excuses of player injuries no longer exists, the goal is the same as it has always been for the Colts, win the Super Bowl or the season was a failure. Like the divisional round and the championship round, the Colts have a lot of pressure on their backs. In a lot of ways the pressure is off the Saints because they at least got to the Super Bowl. Of course the Super Bowl is the most pressure filled game one could ever be a part of, but there was such a sense of anxiety for New Orleans in the NFC Championship game, it sort of feels like a Super Bowl is just another game for them.

The Colts on the other hand need to win ring number two to get their core team listed in the annals of great teams in NFL history. The Colts of the 00's may have won more games than any team in any decade in the history of the sport, but their one ring to show for it is completely pedestrian. Considering the whole spygate scandal and what still has yet come from that episode, it's completely logical to consider the Colts, with their second ring, the team of the 00's. Personally, I'll still consider the 00's the Patriots decade, though their one more ring will eventually be evened out in time by the volume of Hall of Famers these Colts teams produce.

More so than anything for the Colts, that is what is on the line this week: Hall of Fame candidacies, legendary statuses, and most importantly; legacies. As it stands now, Manning Wayne, Saturday, and Freeney could probably punch their tickets to Canton now. A second Super Bowl ring for each and you could start to add their names to the All Time greats. A second ring could also do wonders for Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, and maybe even Gary Brackett's candidacy for the Hall of Fame. There's also Adam Vinatieri who may not even dress on Sunday, but with a win would get his fifth Super Bowl ring. For the Colts, a second Super Bowl would transform all of these all stars to all timers, the type of names we'll hear about for the next fifty years.

If the Colts lose on Sunday than it all takes a huge step back. Even if the Colts go on to win another Super Bowl with this core, the one loss will always resonate. The sort of loss that those 49ers, Steelers, and Cowboys teams never had. The difference between these Colts and these Saints may be that the Colts, more than any other franchise in the NFL, understand this. They understand that they're on the verge of transforming a franchise that was on the verge of moving in 1997 into a dynasty entering 2010.

In order to do that the Colts will need to do something they have already done once, win a Super Bowl in Miami with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. If Manning and the Colts succeed on Sunday, then the NFL may not only be a coronation for it's 44th Super Bowl champion, there may also be a coronation for their Gretzky, Jordan, Woods, or Ali; in other words their greatest of all time.

A loss, and Manning and the Colts take a huge step back. One that even Manning may not be able to come back from.

The Freeney Question

2010-02-02T12:02:00.000-08:00

Right now the media is buzzing with Dwight Freeney stories, making the All Decade defensive end's ankle the biggest story of Super Bowl week.

Personally, I fully anticipate on Freeney participating in this Sunday's game, though it's impossible to expect him to be 100%. Some have called it a "miracle" if Freeney plays this week, but I wouldn't call it that. Freeney has done this before, he's done it this season. Dwight Freeney is a gamer, and he's going to make sure he can at least get in there a little bit.

If Freeney does sit, it would mean that the Saints would get a Colts defense without Marlin Jackson, Dwight Freeney, and Bob Sanders. If the Saints heard that in week one they would take it in a second.

What the Saints, and most football fans don't understand is that the Colts defense is now, and always has been, a deep pool of similar players. Bob Sanders goes out, Melvin Bullitt steps in and pulls off a great season. Marlin Jackson goes down, Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey step in and do great. If Dwight Freeney goes down, the Colts trust that Raheem Brock and company can get the job done. Robert Mathis would flip over to Freeney's side for create better matchups for Brock.

What I expect to happen is for Freeney to play, but on limited downs. That would make the Colts defense a pass rush by committee.

With or without Freeney the Colts will have their hands full. This season against offenses in a similar range as the Saints the Colts let up points. The Pats scored on the Colts, the Texans scored on the Colts. The Colts let up points. Perhaps the best display of effort the Colts put on this year was against the Cardinals in week 3. In order to win this week the Colts are going to have to replicate that 31 to 10 effort to prevent Manning and the offense from being pressured into putting up points on every down.

Either way though, the Colts coaching staff is probably smart enough to know that blitzing and getting to Brees isn't going to be the easiest thing to do on every down. In order to beat the Saints, strong play from the secondary and ball control is probably more important.

The All Decade Team is Here

2010-02-01T15:49:00.000-08:00

Last week I created a lot of buzz and debate when I released who I projected to be on the All Decade team.

The All Decade team is voted on by the same committee that votes for the Hall of Fame. Overall our two teams are similar, but I honestly think mine was better.

Before I explain let me introduce you to the NFL's "official" All Decade Team (players listed in alphabetical order):

Quarterback - Tom Brady, Peyton Manning.

Running Backs - Shaun Alexander, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, LaDainian Tomlinson.
Offensive Tackles - Walter Jones, Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, William Roaf.

Guards - Larry Allen, Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson, Will Shields.

Fullback - Lorenzo Neal.

Tight Ends - Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez.

Wide Receivers - Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens.
Centers - Olin Kreutz, Kevin Mawae.

Head Coaches - Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy.
Defensive Tackles - La'Roi Glover, Warren Sapp, Richard Seymour, Kevin Williams.
Defensive Ends - Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, Michael Strahan, Jason Taylor.

Linebackers - Derrick Brooks, Ray Lewis, Joey Porter, Zach Thomas, Brian Urlacher, DeMarcus Ware.

Cornerbacks - Ronde Barber, Champ Bailey, Ty Law, Charles Woodson.

Safeties - Brian Dawkins, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Darren Sharper.

Punters - Shane Lechler, Brian Moorman.

Kickers - David Akers, Adam Vinatieri.
Punt Returners - Dante Hall, Devin Hester.

Kick Returners - Joshua Cribbs, Dante Hall.

Now here is the Funk Football All Decade Team:

WR Terrell Owens

WR Randy Moss

WR Marvin Harrison
WR Larry Fitzgerald
TE Tony Gonzalez
TE Antonio Gates
T Jonathan Ogden
T Walter Jones
T Orlando Pace
T Chris Samuels
G Steve Hutchinson
G Will Shields
G Larry Allen
G Alan Faneca
C Kevin Mawae
C Olin Kreutz
QB Peyton Manning
QB Tom Brady
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
RB Shaun Alexander
RB Marshall Faulk
RB Adrian Peterson
FB Lorenzo Neal

DE Michael Strahan
DE Julius Peppers
DE Jason Taylor
DE Dwight Freeney
DT Shaun Rogers
DT Warren Sapp
DT Tommie Harris
DT Richard Seymour
LB Ray Lewis
LB Brian Urlacher
LB Zach Thomas
LB Derrick Brooks
LB James Harrison
LB Joey Porter
CB Champ Bailey
CB Ty Law
CB Ronde Barber
CB Charles Woodson
S Ed Reed
S Troy Polamalu
S Brian Dawkins
S John Lynch

P Jeff Feagles
P Craig Hentrich
K Adam Vinatieri
K Jeff Wilkins
PR Devin Hester
PR Ed Reed
KR Dante Hall
KR Josh Cribbs

Coach Bill Belichick
Coach Tony Dungy

Okay, you have had time to look at it... now let's debate.

Offensive tackle... the Hall of Fame voters selected Willie Roaf while I selected Chris Samuels. Willie Roaf was great this decade going to 5 Pro Bowls in six years. In that team he also helped Priest Holmes develop into one of the leagues premiere backs and also helped jump-start the career of Larry Johnson. More importantly, in this time span Roaf earned one All Pro first team selection. Chris Samuels on the other hand played the entire decade (besides 2009 which he missed with a neck injury) and was selected to six pro bowls. I suppose in this instance it's a wash considering Roaf was one of the best in his time span, while Samuels was simply just consistant.

The longevity versus dominance debate is what makes the All Decade team debate so great. Do I choose the guy who was the good for longer or the player who flashed brilliance but didn't have the longevity of his counterpart?

In this instance the NFL chose Willie Roaf over Chris Samuels.

At running back the NFL chose longevity over brilliance. Edgerrin James and Jamal Lewis were selected to the All Decade team over Adrian Peterson and Marshall Faulk in a debate that is easy to argue either way. From 2000 to 2002 Marshall Faulk was the undeniable best running back in the NFL, and arguably the best player in the league. From 2007 to 2009 Adrian Peterson has been the sure-fire number one back in the league, with Chris Johnson recently joinin the debate. Edge and Lewis were never the best backs in the NFL, even when they were elite.

Lewis has one Pro Bowl, one All Pro, one Super Bowl ring, but seven 1,000 yard seasons. In the ten years that filled the 00's, Lewis was probably considered a top five running back only one season, 2003 where he rushed for 2,066 yards. This decade James has zero All Pro selections, three Pro Bowls, one rushing title, and six 1,000 yard seasons. James also lead the league in rushing yards in 2000. What James doesn't have is a Super Bowl ring, something the Indianapolis Colts were able to get with Joseph Addai in 2006, the year after James left Indianapolis for Arizona.

Though James and Lewis both had a lot of yards in the 00's, their consistency was never accompanied by dominance. Like Chris Samuels, James and Lewis played at a high level for a long period of time, but were considered amidst the best of the best for only a brief span.

Like Willie Roaf, Marshall Faulk and Adrian Peterson dominated for short spans of the decade but do not have the body of work that spans ten years (in this particular decade at least). In 2000 Faulk was the leagues MVP, in 2001 he got his second All Pro selection of the decade, and in 2000 and 2001 he had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Faulk also picked up three pro bowls in this time span. After the 2005 season, Faulk called it a career, but there was no denying that from 2000 to 2002 he was the best player in the NFL.

In 2007 Adrian Peterson burst onto the NFL scene and immediately supplanted LaDainian Tomlinson as the best running back in the league. In his short three year tenure this decade, Peterson has earned three Pro Bowls, two All Pro selections, picked up three 1,000 yard seasons, and has been received MVP votes twice. Though he has only been in the league for three years, his dominance at the running back position has been far more noticable than James or Lewis'. Oh, and in case you forgot, in his rookie season, against a then very good Chargers rush defense, Peterson broke an NFL record rushing for 296 yards on 30 carries, picking up 3 touchdowns. In that game, the eighth of his rookie campaign, Peterson pulled the plug on Tomlinson's run as the best in the league.

I'm not going to argue with the James/Lewis over Faulk/Peterson selections, but I will just point out it goes against the logic of the Roaf over Samuels decision. Unless of course Roaf's six elite years of service are more valuable than Peterson and Faulk's three.

The rest of our teams were pretty similar. Torry Holt vs Larry Fitzgerald is a wash. You can't get rid of Moss, Marvin, or T.O because they're without a doubt the three signature receivers of the era. Fitzgerald vs Holt is just a case of longevity at it's finest. This decade Fitzgerald has four dominant seasons under his belt while Holt has seven. While Fitzgerald in his four years of dominance may have been better than Holt, you cannot deny Holt the fourth spot on the roster.

My biggest grievances come on defense. The Hall of Famers and I agreed on Cornerback and Defensive End, but our disagreements at Safefy, Defensive Tackle, and Linebacker an inexcusable. Let's start with Safety.

As hard it was, I left Bob Sanders off the All Decade team in favor of Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Brian Dawkins, and John Lynch. Sanders' dominance in the 2006 playoffs and the 2007 regular season are enough to make him an NFL legend, perhaps more so than Dawkins and Lynch, but they're not enough for me to put him on this list over those two (potential) Hall of Famers. The Hall of Fame committee selected Darren Sharper over both Sanders and Lynch. Seriously though? I can understand Sanders, but Sharper over Lynch? That's ridiculous and I'm not even a John Lynch fan. From 2000 to 2002 Lynch was probably the best safety in the league, and from 2004 to 2007 he still earned Pro Bowl berths every year (though his last was a little suspect to fan ignorance). To be honest, Sharpers selection is just dumb despite his large amount of interceptions. What that selection showed me is that Sharpers strong 2009 canceled out Lynch's entire 2000 to 2007 (which included a stint on arguably the best unit of the decade), seriously altering the legitimacy of this list.

The selection of DeMarcus Ware over James Harrison is a wash. It really could have gone either way. They selected Ware, I selected Harrison, you have to pick your battles. Harrison has three Pro Bowls, two rings, one All Pro selection, one of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history, and the ever important defensive player of the year award. Ware has four Pro Bowls and three All Pro selections, no rings, but that's not his fault. I'll consider this one a wash, but concede the results to the Hall of Fame committee.

Defensive Tackle was just downright sloppy on their part though. Funk Football selected Shaun Rogers, Warren Sapp, Richard Seymour, and Tommie Harris; The Hall of Fame committee selected Warren Sapp, Richard Seymour, La'Roi Glover, and Kevin Williams. I'll give you Kevin Williams over Shaun Rogers, that one was a blunder on my part though Rogers is probably the better player stuck on the worse teams. That's a debate for a different day, though. Tommie Harris vs La'Roi Glover though? That one just screams of Dallas bias. I understand that Glover has more Pro Bowls in a longer span, but anyone who watches the game of football knows that Tommie Harris was just the better player. Harris was the key to a Bears defense that went to the Super Bowl in 2006, and his absence that game was part of the reason the Bears could not contain the Colts running game. Also, Harris' presence on a Bears team that did damage on NFC opponents from 2005 to 2006 is more than you could say for Glover who made two playoff appearances in his career.

Simply put, Tommie Harris belongs on this roster over La'Roi Glover. Make the change, please.

Dungy over Cowher is hard to disagree with for these purposes, though I honestly believe that Gruden was probably the second best coach of the decade. He may have a chance to be the coach of the decade for the 10's though if he lands in the right place, (cough... Dallas... cough).

ESPN Saves the Pro Bowl

2010-02-01T15:21:00.000-08:00

All week we dreaded the game. The average football fan never watches the game. The general media slams the game as if it were the worst event on the pro sports calendar.

About 40% of the selected players dropped out of the game, but the game also saw a 40% ratings increase.

I believe that some of the increase has to do with the game being played the week before the Super Bowl. It adds an extra edge to the game. Even though it means that some of the leagues premiere players aren't active in the game, we still get to see players that had great seasons, and are owned in every fantasy football league. Whether it's Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers, or Matt Schaub, David Gerrard, and Vince Young out there doesn't matter. It's still NFL superstars, and it's still players that people watch on a regular basis.

The biggest aspect in the success of yesterday's game had to be the ESPN production. The pre game show was phenomenal and exciting. The on field interviews with the stars were as good as they have been all decade. The coaches voices, though they noticeably sounded like 1960's technology, were great, even if it was two of the most un-intriguing coaches to have mic'd up... ever.

ESPN bringing out their Monday Night Football crew to do the Pro Bowl was also a great idea. It gave an otherwise illegitimate game a sense of legitimacy. Though we didn't get to see Peyton connect with Reggie, or Brees fire one for Fitz, we did get to see an exciting game.

The Pro Bowl shouldn't allow blitzing. Stop saying it should. The Pro Bowl should never be more than an offensive exhibition with solid coverage. I'd take a non-defensive 100 point game over Mario Williams injuring his shoulder any day. Mainly because I watched the Pro Bowl on Sunday to cap off what was a great season for some of the best NFL players. Did it have to be the best 100 players in the league? No.

But it was still better rosters than we're used to seeing, in a game that showcased players talents in a way we rarely get to see.

FUNK Sports and FUNK Baseball Now Up!

2010-02-01T13:57:00.000-08:00

As of today, the new hub of Funk Sports and the latest addition to the Funk Sports family, Funk Baseball, are now up and running. From here on out, you will be able to access these pages using the links to the right. For now, you may access them here:

FUNK Sports Homepage FUNK Baseball

We genuinely hope that you will support these additions as much as you have this blog. We appreciate your support and hope to provide you will the best and most insightful updates to football and baseball, with more sports to come!

Please feel free to offer any and all comments as our posts are meant to encourage your thoughts and debates.

Funk Sports Community Expanding Monday

2010-01-30T21:24:00.001-08:00

This Monday the Funk Sports community will expand with a new Funk Sports page and a Funk Baseball page.

Also coming soon will be a few team oriented blogs.

In the meantime, check out a friend site of Funk Sports, Loaded Fries, a media website which Funk Sports contributes to.

Please continue to check Funk Sports throughout Super Bowl week for the best insight on the internet about the biggest game of the season.

Kurt Warner Retires: The Time Has Come For Leinart

2010-01-29T23:16:00.000-08:00

Today the 12 year career of Kurt Warner came to an end. I can't say I'm surprised, but I will say a few things about Warner.

First things first, any debate over whether or not Warner is a Hall of Famer is irrational. Though Warner only had (being generous) six good seasons, five of those seasons resulted in a playoff berth, four of those seasons ended with a Pro Bowl, three of those seasons ended with a Super Bowl berth, two included MVP awards, and one ended with a Super Bowl victory and game MVP award. In other words, when Warner was good he was great.

For his career, his numbers compare well to Troy Aikman's, Jim Kelly's, and Terry Bradshaw's; all Hall of Famers.

To sum things up for Warner, before 2007 he wasn't going to be a Hall of Famer. After 2008 he looked like he was going to be one. Now after 2009, Kurt Warner is definitely a Hall of Famer, and he's one of the rare instances where a players talent may not have been astonishing, but his will and positive attitude helped him achieve the highest level of success there is to achieve in professional football.

I will make one last comment about Warner, and it is a thought to chew on in your head. How much did having Orlando Pace, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin help Warner get to the Hall of Fame? All were All Pro talents without Warner. Warner was never an All Pro talent without them. I'm not saying Warner doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, because he does. I'm just wondering if Kerry Collins, Drew Bledsoe, or Vinny Testaverde could have put up the same numbers in the same systems with the same results.

Anyway, the real story in Warner's retirement now becomes Matt Leinart. This past season Leinart had to fill in for Warner a few times and looked "alright," but for the most part his career has been a disaster. And while his draft day partners Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and Jay Cutler haven't exactly been excellent, compared to Leinart they've been Hall of Famers.

Part of the problem for Leinart is that the Cardinals quarterback job has never been "his." In 2006, Leinart's rookie year, he started on the bench but performed well in some instances. Leinart entered 2007 looking to take the next step, but lost his job midway through the season never to regain it. From 2007 to 2009 Kurt Warner revitalized a Cardinals franchise that had been dead for decades, leading the franchise to it's first Super Bowl, and in turn keeping Leinart on the bench.

Now Leinart enters 2010 as the probable candidate to take over the Cardinals quarterback job, and in all reality the franchise has no choice. The Cardinals have invested too much money over the past four seasons in Leinart to not find out if they already have their future quarterback. If the Cardinals can satisfy Boldin's needs, Leinart will inherit the most explosive offense in the NFL in a division that doesn't look to be more difficult in 2010 than it was in 2009.

In other words things are looking good for Matt Leinart.

2010 is actually a big year for all of those 2006 to 2007 quarterbacks. Vince Young and Jay Cutler need to prove themselves in Tennessee and Chicago, a failure in 2010 could lead to a new team in 2011 for either. Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell of the 2007 draft need to prove themselves in 2010 or both will be unemployed come 2011. But nobody has the pressure that Leinart has entering 2010, after all, Leinart is inheriting the undeniable best team of the bunch.

Anything short of a division title next year and Matt Leinart's tenure as the QB in Arizona becomes unsuccessful. The pressure is on for Leinart, the Cardinals coaching staff, and the Cardinals franchise in general to get back to the elite level of the NFC next year.

And that, at the end of the day, is why Kurt Warner was a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Norv vs Wade: Just One of the Many Reasons to Watch the Pro Bowlt

2010-01-29T18:36:00.000-08:00

For some coaches, coaching the Pro Bowl sounds right. Jon Gruden in 2001. Tony Dungy in 2004. Bill Belichick in 2007. Bill Cowher in 2005. Mike Shanahan in 2006. Andy Reid almost every year.

But Wade Phillips and Norv Turner? Is this really the year pair those two in the Pro Bowl? Only two weeks after both of their teams crushed the hearts of their fans, Norv and Wade, perhaps the two most ridiculed head coaches of the past three seasons, will square off as the head coaches of the NFC and AFC Pro Bowl squads.

Perhaps that explains the record number of player withdrawals we're seeing this year.

Norv and Wade "earned" the right to coach the Pro Bowl by being the teams in the Divisional Round to lose with the best regular season record.

Ouch.

So instead of giving the Pro Bowl to the conference championship loser, the NFL, with it's new week-before-the-Super-Bowl format has decided to create inspiration for under performing workers everywhere by giving the Pro Bowl coaching duties to the two coaches who flopped in the divisional round.

Makes sense to me.

But look on the bright side for Wade and Norv; the two have managed to keep the jobs they were unqualified for when they were hired, continue to fail, but continue to keep their jobs. Heck, as long as the Chargers and Cowboys dangle in mediocrity it's going to be hard to get rid of either of them.

And maybe, just maybe, it we're very, very lucky, this Wade vs Norv thing can become an annual contest.

And more players will withdraw.

Projecting the All Decade Team

2010-01-28T21:14:00.000-08:00

This Sunday at the Pro Bowl the NFL will commemorate the 00’s, a decade that saw the NFL go from America’s third favorite (and at times arguably 4th) sport, to not only America’s number one sport, but perhaps it’s greatest passion, with the All-Decade team.

I’ve followed the same format that the NFL uses to commemorate each decade, and though this format leaves a lot of great players off the list (only two QB spots saved a huge head ache and a lot of debate), when you see this list of names the majority of the players probably already have some blacksmith (I just wanted to use the word blacksmith) working on their bust for Canton.

An important thing to note when looking over this list is that the All Decade team is not a marathon as much as it is a sprint. The list commemorates the players who performed the best this decade. Two to three years of dominating at your position are more valuable than six good seasons and one great one (see Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Curtis Martin vs Adrian Peterson and Marshall Faulk).

The 2000's Funk Football All Decade Team:

WR Terrell Owens

WR Randy Moss